Guidelines on Ensemble Prediction System Postprocessing
This guide to methods for Postprocessing of Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) is designed to provide an outline of different methods by which WMO Members can exploit available EPS forecasts to extract useful information and to enhance and improve forecasts using postprocessing techniques. It provides some background on what statistical methods and data choices may be used for training, real-time forecasting, and validation. It is not a detailed instruction manual on how to implement methods, or of the detailed mathematics behind methods, but wherever possible it will provide references to where such information can be found. References to sources of existing software which is available for use are also provided.
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