Policy Research Working Paper, 6916. Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability

World Bank, 2014

Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mecha ...

English

 Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability

  Available online: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/1 [...]

Published by: World Bank ; 2014

Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and institutional features provide better opportunities for mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001 with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others.

Collection(s) and Series:  Policy Research Working Paper- No. 6916

Language(s): English

Format: Digital (Free)

Tags: Water ; Climate change ; Conflict Add tag

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Policy Research Working Paper. Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands : impacts and costs

Blankespoor Brian; Dasgupta Susmita; Laplante Benoit; et al. - World Bank, 2012

Scientific evidence indicates that global warming could well lead to a sea-level rise of 1 meter or more in the 21st century. This paper seeks to quantify how a 1-meter sea-level rise that would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account how much of wetlands would be submerged and how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes. It is estimated that approximately 64 percent of the freshwater marsh, 66 percent of Global Lakes and Wetlands Database coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk. A large per ...

English

 Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands : impacts and costs

  Available online: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/11/2 [...]

Brian Blankespoor ; Susmita Dasgupta ; Benoit Laplante ; World Bank

Published by: World Bank ; 2012

Scientific evidence indicates that global warming could well lead to a sea-level rise of 1 meter or more in the 21st century. This paper seeks to quantify how a 1-meter sea-level rise that would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account how much of wetlands would be submerged and how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes. It is estimated that approximately 64 percent of the freshwater marsh, 66 percent of Global Lakes and Wetlands Database coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk. A large percentage of this loss would be shouldered by two regions: East Asia and the Pacific, and the Middle East and North Africa. At the country level, the results are extremely skewed with a small number of countries being severely affected. In East Asia, China and Vietnam would bear the brunt of these losses. In the Middle East and North Africa, Libya and Egypt would see the most losses. A rough estimate of the economic value of the goods and services produced by wetlands at risk is approximately $630 million per year in 2000 U.S. dollars

Collection(s) and Series:  Policy Research Working Paper

Language(s): English

Format: Digital (Free)

Tags: Oceans ; Sea level rising ; Economics ; Impact studies ; Environmental policies ; Littoral zone Add tag

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Policy Research Working Paper, 5617. How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth

Hallegatte Stéphane; World Bank the - World Bank, 2011

Assuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas -- and the resulting increase in disaster losses -- may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. With disasters possibly becoming less frequent but increasingly destructive in the future, average disaster losses may grow faster than wealth. Myopic expectations, lack of information, moral hazard, and externalities reinforce the likelihood of thi ...

English

 How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth

  Available online: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/04/1 [...]

Stéphane Hallegatte ; World Bank

Published by: World Bank ; 2011

Assuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas -- and the resulting increase in disaster losses -- may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. With disasters possibly becoming less frequent but increasingly destructive in the future, average disaster losses may grow faster than wealth. Myopic expectations, lack of information, moral hazard, and externalities reinforce the likelihood of this scenario. These results have consequences on how to design risk management and climate change policies

Collection(s) and Series:  Policy Research Working Paper- No. 5617

Language(s): English

Format: Digital (Free)

Tags: Natural hazards ; Climate change ; Social and Economic development Add tag

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