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Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...
Assessment and modelling of climate variability and change in Cameroon (central Africa)
Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock and urban settlement are also facing an increasing threat due to extreme climate and weather events. In some cases today’s climate extremes are expected to become tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather. This assumption stresses the need of understanding the past, the current and hopefully to project local climate b ...
Projection of crop yield in Bhutan under climate change using PRECIS regional climate model
Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model.
In this st ...
Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also prov ...
Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the ...
Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria ...
Lesotho Climate Change Projections
Lesotho is a small mountainous country is southern Africa. Lesotho is a temperate region that has four distinct seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. It is among countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, future climate projections are vital to the country. Lesotho has submitted her first and the only report (FNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2000. The report includes vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment developed using the first generation low resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) output. This study was aimed ...
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