Publisher details
University of Reading - Department of meteorology |
Available document(s)


![]()
![]()
Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2016
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The forecasts are produced daily at 08:00 UTC with a validity of 24 hours. Hourly Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) are used to verify the forecast. The forecast accuracy and skill is determined using Hit Rate (HR), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Frequency Bias (FBI), and Critical Success Index (CSI) evaluated from a 2-category contingency table. Significance of the forecast error is evaluated using a student’s t-test for difference in means at 0.05 significance level. The HR and CSI for the original forecast for all the three stations, Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley was below 20%. Upon adjusting the forecast using regression analysis, the HR and CSI for Heathrow improved to 53.7% and 40.8% respectively. The HR and CSI for Northolt improved to 27.4% and 24.2% respectively. The improvement for Kenley was insignificant since the HR and CSI slightly improved to values below 10%. Although this method is purely statistical hence do not involve physical dynamics that dictate fog formation, maintenance and dissipation, in absence of a dynamical methods that can be applied to improve the accuracy and skill of visibility forecast within fog range then regression methods used in this study is a better option especially for Heathrow airport.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (kizitoamua(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Fog ; Weather forecasting ; Research ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
Add tag
No review, please log in to add yours !
![]()
![]()
Assessment and modelling of climate variability and change in Cameroon (central Africa)
Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock and urban settlement are also facing an increasing threat due to extreme climate and weather events. In some cases today’s climate extremes are expected to become tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather. This assumption stresses the need of understanding the past, the current and hopefully to project local climate b ...
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock and urban settlement are also facing an increasing threat due to extreme climate and weather events. In some cases today’s climate extremes are expected to become tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather. This assumption stresses the need of understanding the past, the current and hopefully to project local climate behaviour through variability or change assessment and modelling, thereby enabling stakeholders to plan ahead for modifications that may hamper sustainable development projects.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users) (ill., charts, maps)Tags: Climate ; Climatic variation ; Climate change ; Climate model ; Sustainable development ; Cameroon ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
Add tag
No review, please log in to add yours !
![]()
![]()
Projection of crop yield in Bhutan under climate change using PRECIS regional climate model
Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model.
In this st ...
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model.
In this study, simple linear crop yield regression models are developed between the yield of each crop and weather variables, using observations for the period 1990 to 2010 as training data. Future crop yield is then projected by driving this model with calibrated projections of the relevant weather variables by the PRECIS regional climate model. The calibration of weather variables is done by two approaches, bias correction and change factor which are based on different assumptions of the relationship between the observed and modelled distributions of weather variables.Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users) (ill., charts, maps)Tags: Climate ; Climate change ; Climate model ; Agroclimatology ; Bhutan ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
Add tag
No review, please log in to add yours !
![]()
![]()
Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also prov ...
Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
![]()
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also provides insights into the changes being currently experienced in the region. It also enables analysis of the projected changes in circulation patterns that drive rainfall changes in the near future in addition to allowing stronger statements to be made on the expected longer term changes in rainfall. Thus paves leading to improved impact, vulnerability and adaptation studies as well integration of Climate Risk Management practices like Weather Index Insurance into development and economic planning.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users) (ill., charts, maps)Tags: Climate ; Climate change ; Climate projection ; Precipitation forecasting ; Zimbabwe ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
Add tag
No review, please log in to add yours !
![]()
![]()
Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the ...
Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
![]()
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the science of the climate common to southern Caribbean region can be achieved, which is a prerequisite for effective decision is making in the region. This study addressed questions related to whether PRECIS, a regional climate modelling system, has the skill and quality, to reproduce recent and realistic near and medium term future climates of the extreme southern Caribbean with some focus on Trinidad and Tobago. The findings of the research revealed several observations in relation to the aim of the research. Temperature and rainfall variability in the region have changed in the recent past and given the observed trends are likely to continue changing in the future but with amplifications. PRECIS can adequately reproduce these changes along with the known annual cycle patterns of temperature and rainfall in the ESC and Trinidad and Tobago.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users) (ill., charts, maps)Tags: Climate ; Climate change ; Climate projection ; Caribbean ; Trinidad and Tobago ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
Add tag
No review, please log in to add yours !
![]()
![]()
![]()
Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria ...
Permalink![]()
![]()
![]()
Lesotho Climate Change Projections
Lesotho is a small mountainous country is southern Africa. Lesotho is a temperate region that has four distinct seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. It is among countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, future climate projections are vital to the country. Lesotho has submitted her first and the only report (FNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2000. The report includes vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment developed using the first generation low resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) output. This study was aimed ...
Permalink