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Urban flooding of Greater Dhaka in a changing climate: building local resilience to disaster risk
World Bank, 2015This study’s overall aim is to provide local decision-makers an effective planning approach for minimizing the damage risk of rainfall-induced urban flooding in Dhaka in a changing climate. Specific objectives are to assess the vulnerability of the Greater Dhaka area to urban flooding and waterlogging, estimate probable economic damage due to climate change, develop structural adaptation measures, evaluate the reduction in economic damage resulting from implementing these measures, and estimate their cost.
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Japan-World Bank: mainstreaming disaster risk management in developing countries - 2014-15 annual report
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the ; Government of Japan ; World Bank the - World Bank, 2015This annual report highlights progress and results achieved of the Japan-World Bank Program for mainstreaming disaster risk management in developing countries for the period April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2015. The program was established in February 2014 as a partnership between the Ministry of Finance of Japan (MoF) and the World Bank.
Turn down the heat: confronting the new climate normal
World Bank the - World Bank, 2014This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. For each region, the report addresses the regional patterns of climate change, such as heat extremes, extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones/hurricanes, and sea-level rise.
Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resource ...
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The need for multiple types of information to inform climate change assessment
Toman Mickael - World Bank, 2014Information on ecosystem characteristics as well as economic statistics is needed to more fully inform decision makers on the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Climate change risks involve potentially large and irreversible as well as highly uncertain impacts that need to be evaluated with information that complements cost-benefit analysis. Information on the irreversibility of impacts also is relevant for evaluating implications for intergenerational equity. In addition, climate change is subject to a large degree of Knightian uncertainty, making it useful to understand how indiv ...
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50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change
This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced ...
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Policy Research Working Paper, 6916. Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability
World Bank, 2014Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mecha ...
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Building Morocco’s resilience: inputs for an integrated risk management strategy
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the ; Switzerland Government - World Bank, 2014This report aims to support the Government of Morocco in the development of an integrated risk management strategy. The report summarizes methodologies, data, assumptions, results, comparative analyses, international benchmarks and other aspects of Morocco’s risks.
Developing and adopting a national strategy for integrated risk management (IRM) will not only make Morocco better prepared to avoid future crises, and be more reactive and resilient if/when they occur, but also allow the government to make more informed decisions on overall resource allocation and prioritization.
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Analysis of disaster risk management in Colombia: a contribution to the creation of public policies
World Bank, 2013This document evaluates the progress of risk management in Colombia proposes recommendations that will enable the Government to set up public policies in this area on a short-and long-term basis. It defines a set of recommendations so that disaster risk management becomes a State policy, emphasizing that improving land use and land occupation conditions is a priority in reducing the impact of disasters. The technical analysis included in the report is intended for those responsible for implementing disaster risk management policies, as well as professionals, researchers, and experts in the sub ...
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Insuring against natural disaster risk in Mexico: case study
World Bank, 2013This case study is part of World Bank Treasury's financial solutions in practice series. It introduces Mexico government's initiatives, which allowed the country to move from an ex-post response to natural disasters to an ex-ante preparedness approach, through: (i) the fund for natural disasters, to which it transfers budgetary funds for disaster relief and reconstruction efforts; and (ii) an institutional framework for disaster preparedness involving risk assessment, risk reduction, the promotion of a culture of prevention, and insurance.
The paper also features Mexican sub-na ...
Social and Governance Dimensions of Climate Change: Implications for Policy
Foa R. - World Bank, 2013How can countries prepare to manage the impact of climate-change induced natural disasters? How can countries ensure that they have the governmental institutions required to manage the challenge of adaptation to climate change? In this paper, a range of economic and institutional measures are tested for their potential effects on natural disaster resilience and the quality of environmental governance. The findings suggest an important role is played by social and political institutions in determining the success of adaptation and response to natural disasters, in particular in the degree to wh ...
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Cost benefit studies on disaster risk reduction in developing countries
Shyam K.C.; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the ; World Bank the - World Bank, 2013This note briefly surveys existing evidence in developing countries with regard to the benefits and costs of various disaster risk reduction interventions so as to provide some general lessons for disaster risk reduction (DRR) practitioners on the strengths and limitations of such existing work. In doing so, the note examines evidence on the economics of DRR in developing countries.
The note begins by providing a comparative guideline for analysis. This is followed by a summary diagnostic of seventeen case studies along five key dimensions comprising the guideline as follows: ( ...
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Acting on climate change and disaster risk for the Pacific
World Bank, 2013This booklet reports on World Bank's support in the Pacific through investments in disaster and climate risk assessments, and on risk reduction across a range of areas through community driven development, water and coastal management, transport and agriculture. It provides a snapshot of the challenges posed by climate change and natural hazards in the Pacific, policy recommendations, and details of the World Bank Group's work across the region in helping build resilience to disasters and climate change. It is structured as follows: (i) part one presents Pacific island as the most vulnerable i ...
Increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector in the Middle East: the cases of Jordan and Lebanon
Verner Dorte - World Bank, 2013This report aims to assist decision-makers in Jordan and Lebanon in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the agricultural sector and to develop local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, in order to build agricultural resilience in the two countries. The report is divided into four chapters: (i) chapter one introduces the background of the study and the structure of the report; (ii) chapter two provides a synthesis of evidence of climate variability and change in Jordan and Lebanon; (iii) chapter three explains the methodology of the st ...
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Disquiet on the weather front : the welfare impacts of climatic variability in the rural Philippines
World Bank, 2013Three recent rounds (2003, 2006, and 2009) of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey are matched to rainfall data from 43 rainfall stations in the Philippines to quantify the extent to which unusual weather has any negative effects on the consumption of Filipino households. It is found that negative rainfall shocks decrease consumption, in particular food consumption. Rainfall below one standard deviation of its long-run average causes food consumption to decrease by about 4 percent, when compared with rainfall within one standard deviation. Positive deviations above one standard deviation h ...
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The poverty impact of climate change in Mexico
This paper examines the effects of climate change on poverty through the relationship between indicators of climate change (temperature and rainfall change) and municipal level gross domestic product, and subsequently between gross domestic product and poverty. The evidence suggests that climate change could have a negative impact on poverty by 2030. The paper proposes a two-stage least squares regression where it first regresses temperature and rainfall (along with geographic controls and state and year fixed effects) on municipal gross domestic product per capita for 2000 and 2005 The result ...
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A global urban risk index
Which cities have the highest risk of human and economic losses due to natural hazards? And how will urban exposure to major hazards change over the coming decades? This paper develops a global urban disaster risk index that evaluates the mortality and economic risks from disasters in 1,943 cities in developing countries. Concentrations of population, infrastructure, and economic activities in cities contribute to increased exposure and susceptibility to natural hazards. The three components of this risk measure are urban hazard characteristics, exposure, and vulnerability. For earthquakes, cy ...
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Climate change in the Himalayas : current state of knowledge
This paper reviews the literature on the potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change in the Himalayas. Existing observations indicate that the temperature is rising at a higher rate in Nepal and Chinese regions of the Himalayas compared with rest of the Himalayas. A declining trend of monsoon in the western Indian Himalayas and an increasing trend in the eastern Indian Himalayas have been observed, whereas increasing precipitation and stream flow in many parts of Tibetan Plateau are noted. Glaciers in both the eastern and western Himalayas are mostly retreating, but the majori ...
Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience
This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis gives a more detailed look at how the negative impacts of climate change already in motion could create devastating conditions especially for those least able to adapt. It asserts that the case for resilience has never been stronger. This report demands action. It reinforces the fact that climate change is a fundamental threat to economic development and the ...
Strong, safe and resilient: a strategic policy guide for disaster risk management in East Asia and the Pacific
This report outlines the challenges and opportunities as well as new priorities for the disaster risk management (DRM) field in East Asia and the Pacific. It takes stock of the most important activities, highlights examples of global good practice and innovative products, and makes recommendations for reducing risks and building resilience in the short, medium, and long run. It presents a comprehensive disaster risk management framework that offers practical opportunities for targeted policy action and investments, stretching across sectors and jurisdictions and reaching all the way to communi ...
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Ensuring robust flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh city
Ho Chi Minh City faces significant and growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may be insufficient as climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from projections made when those efforts were initially planned. This study demonstrates how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies in the face of such deep uncertainty. Robust decision making is an iterative, quantitative, decision support methodology designed to help policy makers identify strategies that are robust, that is, satisfying decision makers' objectives in many pla ...
Community-based landslide risk reduction: managing disasters in small steps
This book has two main aims: to demonstrate to international development agencies, governments, policy makers, project managers, practitioners, and community residents that landslide hazard can often be reduced in vulnerable urban communities in the developing world, and to provide practical guidance for those in charge of delivering Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC) on the ground. The purpose of the book is to take readers into the most vulnerable communities in order to understand and address rainfall-triggered landslide hazards in these areas.
Planning, connecting, and financing cities-now: priorities for city leaders
World Bank, 2013This report provides Mayors and other policymakers with a policy framework and diagnostic tools to anticipate and implement strategies that can prevent their cities from locking into irreversible physical and social structures, including: improving living conditions, especially in slums and hazard-prone areas; bridging the divided cities (inclusion); expanding the coverage and quality of basic infrastructure services; and managing the city’s physical form.
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The Sendai report: managing disaster risks for a resilient future
This report argues that the practice of disaster risk management (DRM) is a defining characteristic of resilient societies, and should therefore be integrated – or ‘mainstreamed’ – into all aspects of development. It (i) analyses the alarming trend of disasters and development; (ii) presents disaster risk management in action through four pillars (risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection and resilient reconstruction); (iii) features the need for national policies and planning; (iv) reviews international development cooperation, including financing and policies, a ...
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Integrated Urban Water Management - Lessons and Recommendations from Regional Experiences in Latin America, Central Asia, and Africa
The purpose of this working paper is to review a set of Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) initiatives and pilot studies funded by the World Bank’s Water Partnership Program (WPP) in Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, and Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
The report is structured into three chapters:
(1)Introduces the main concepts of IUWM;
(2)Reviews the findings of 10 case studies;
(3)Puts forward recommendations to sustain and enhance the scope of IUWM activities;
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Disaster risk financing and insurance in Sub-Saharan Africa : review and options for consideration
World Bank, 2012This report is a preliminary effort to present a body of knowledge on the state of disaster risk financing and insurance in Sub-Saharan Africa. It aims to contribute to a strengthened understanding and collective knowledge within Sub-Saharan Africa on disaster risk financing and insurance, and to encourage open dialogue between stakeholders on how strategies can best be developed to increase financial resilience against natural disasters. It is targeted at policy-makers and actors in the international community with an interest in this agenda. In the context of this report, disaster risk finan ...
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Adapting to climate change: assessing World Bank Group experience phase III
World Bank, 2012This report presents an extensive review of the World Bank’s experience dealing with climate variability and climate change, offering valuable lessons on adaptation efforts worldwide. It answers questions in three areas: (i) dealing with climate variability; (ii) factoring climate change risks into investment projects; and (iii) anticipating climate change. In addition to this learning-focused agenda, the evaluation also asks how the Bank Group has performed against climate adaptation goals of the Bank Group’s Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change (FY09-11).
The evalua ...
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Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries : a case for adaptation governance and leadership in building climate resilience
Adapting to climate change is not a new phenomenon for the Arab world. For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. Their experience has contributed significantly to the global knowledge on climate change and adaptation. But over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to increase, and Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may reach new highs, and in most places there may be a risk of less rain ...
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Policy Research Working Paper. Sea-level rise and coastal wetlands : impacts and costs
Scientific evidence indicates that global warming could well lead to a sea-level rise of 1 meter or more in the 21st century. This paper seeks to quantify how a 1-meter sea-level rise that would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account how much of wetlands would be submerged and how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes. It is estimated that approximately 64 percent of the freshwater marsh, 66 percent of Global Lakes and Wetlands Database coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk. A large per ...
Turn down the heat: why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided
This report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes. It provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4° Celsius warming within this century, ranging from sea-level rise to increases in tropical cyclone intensity, unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services.
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Green Water Defense for Flood Risk Management in East Asia
The purpose of the ‘Green Water Defense in East Asia’ study is to take stock of advances in management practices, institutional and technological innovations for managing water resources under changing climate. The focus of this note is on green water defense for flood risk management in deltas and other areas vulnerable to flooding.
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Grow in Concert with Nature: Sustaining East Asia’s Water Resources through Green Water Defense
This study will assess advances in management practices, institutional and technological innovations for managing water scarcity sustainably under a changing climate. The impetus for this analysis comes from the World Bank’s concept note ‘Towards Green Water Defense (GWD) in East Asia’ study, specifi cally one of the building blocks of the GWD concept: Managing water scarcity by “producing more with less” or increasing water productivity and reducing undesirable externalities.
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The poverty and welfare impacts of climate change quantifying the effects, identifying the adaptation strategies
Although poverty remains widespread in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, substantial progress has been made especially in the past three decades. Nevertheless, this report stresses that climate change is likely to reduce agricultural productivity, which will directly affect poor people's livelihood assets including health, access to water and other natural resources, homes and infrastructure. Increasing climatic variability will make poor households even more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which could in turn exacerbate the incidence, severity and persistence of poverty in developi ...
An exploration of the link between development, economic growth, and natural risk
This paper investigates the link between development, economic growth, and the economic losses from natural disasters in a general analytical framework, with an application to hurricane flood risks in New Orleans. It concludes that where capital accumulates through increased density of capital at risk in a given area, and the costs of protection therefore increase more slowly than capital at risk, (i) protection improves over time and the probability of disaster occurrence decreases; (ii) capital at risk -- and thus economic losses in case of disaster -- increases faster than economic growth; ...
Learning from megadisasters knowledge notes
This document includes a set of 32 notes grouped into six thematic clusters: (i) structural measures; (ii) non-structural measures; (iii) emergency response; (iv) reconstruction planning; (v) hazard and risk information and decision making; and (vi) economics of disaster risk, risk management, and risk financing. The notes are collecting and analyzing information, data, and evaluations performed by academic and research institutions, non-governmental organizations, government agencies, and the private sector—all with the objective of sharing Japan’s knowledge on disaster risk management (DRM) ...
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Green growth -- lessons from growth theory
This paper reviews dynamic general equilibrium models in order to collect insights on the interaction between economic growth and environmental issues. The authors discuss the Ramsey model and extend it for natural resource inputs and pollution, as well as for endogenous technical change. Green growth becomes within reach if there is good substitution, a clean backstop technology, a small share of natural resources in gross domestic product, and/or green directed technical change.
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Biodiversity: delivering results in Europe and the CIS
World Bank, 2012This publication presents some of the outcomes of GEF-funded work managed by UNDP in Europe and the CIS that aims to conserve biodiversity
Building urban resilience: principles, tools and practice
World Bank, 2012This report is divided into three major sections designed to give urban planners and practitioners an intuitive and easy way to build elements of resilience into their urban governance and city planning. It includes case studies and tables providing good practice examples and further details.
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Investment decision making under deep uncertainty - application to climate change
While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties ...
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Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania
The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide mo ...
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Rainfall variability, occupational choice, and welfare in rural Bangladesh
This study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with non-flood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed i ...
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Municipal ICT Capacity and its Impact on the Climate-Change Affected Urban Poor: the case of Mozambique
World Bank, 2012
A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience in the Face of Disasters: Adapting Experiences from Vietnam’s Cities to Other Cities
This comprehensive work book provides tips on urban adaptation drawn from efforts to boost climate resilience in cities in Vietnam. It has been produced by the World Bank Group and is intended to assist policymakers in developing countries plan for anticipated impacts of climate change. The work book is designed to provide a user-friendly, step-by-step approach to national, provincial and local planning. It is argued that the potential impacts of natural disasters and climate change should be considered in nearly every aspect of urban planning and development.
Climate change, disaster risk, and the urban poor: cities building resilience for a changing world
Baker Judy L. - World Bank, 2012This study study examines the inter linkages between climate change, disaster risk, and the urban poor. This study calls on cities to take a lead role in proactively addressing the risks of climate change and natural hazards at the local level, with a focus on populations at highest risk. It suggests a number of actions that cities can take to build resilience, beginning with mainstreaming pro-poor risk reduction policies into urban planning and management.
Acting today for tomorrow: a policy and practice note for climate and disaster resilient development in the pacific islands region
World Bank, 2012This Policy and Practice Note grows out of extensive consultations with countries, regional organizations, and donors and other development partners, and it is addressed primarily to high-level policymakers and decision makers within them. Its analysis and recommendations are meant to inform DRR and CCA planning across a range of institutions at all levels. Specifically, they are intended to inform the design and implementation of the joint Roadmap towards a Post 2015 Integrated Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation, as well as preparation ...
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Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils
World Bank, 2012The purpose of this report is to improve the knowledge base for facilitating investments in land management technologies that sequester soil organic carbon. While there are many studies on soil carbon sequestration, there is no single unifying volume that synthesizes knowledge on the impact of different land management practices on soil carbon sequestration rates across the world. A meta-analysis was carried out to provide soil carbon sequestration rates in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This is one important element in decision-making for sustainable agricultural intensification, agro-ecosy ...
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The Little Green Data Book 2012
World Bank, 2012The Little Green Data Book is a pocket-sized ready reference on key environmental data for over 200 economies. Key indicators are organized under the headings of agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation.
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Sustainable low-carbon city development in China
Cities contribute an estimated 70 percent of the world's energy-related greenhouse gases (GHG). Their locations, often in low-elevation coastal zones, and large populations make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. But cities often take steps, even ahead of national governments, to reduce GHG emissions. So it is with China's cities, which are well placed to chart a low-carbon growth path to help reach China's national targets for reducing the energy and carbon intensity of its economy. China's cities will need to act on multiple fronts, in some cases scaling up elemen ...
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A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries : hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation
In Europe, it can be estimated that hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems save several hundreds of lives per year, avoid between 460 million and 2.7 billion Euros of disaster asset losses per year, and produce between 3.4 and 34 billion of additional benefits per year through the optimization of economic production in weather-sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy, etc.). The potential for similar benefits in the developing world is not only proportional to population, but also to increased hazard risk due to climate and geography, as well as increased exposure to weather ...
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