World Bank, 2015This study’s overall aim is to provide local decision-makers an effective planning approach for minimizing the damage risk of rainfall-induced urban flooding in Dhaka in a changing climate. Specific objectives are to assess the vulnerability of the Greater Dhaka area to urban flooding and waterlogging, estimate probable economic damage due to climate change, develop structural adaptation measures, evaluate the reduction in economic damage resulting from implementing these measures, and estimate their cost.Published by: World Bank ; 2015
This study’s overall aim is to provide local decision-makers an effective planning approach for minimizing the damage risk of rainfall-induced urban flooding in Dhaka in a changing climate. Specific objectives are to assess the vulnerability of the Greater Dhaka area to urban flooding and waterlogging, estimate probable economic damage due to climate change, develop structural adaptation measures, evaluate the reduction in economic damage resulting from implementing these measures, and estimate their cost.
Format: Digital (Free)
ISBN (or other code): 978-1-4648-0712-1Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the ; Government of Japan ; World Bank the - World Bank, 2015This annual report highlights progress and results achieved of the Japan-World Bank Program for mainstreaming disaster risk management in developing countries for the period April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2015. The program was established in February 2014 as a partnership between the Ministry of Finance of Japan (MoF) and the World Bank.Published by: World Bank ; 2015
Japan-World Bank: mainstreaming disaster risk management in developing countries - 2014-15 annual report
This annual report highlights progress and results achieved of the Japan-World Bank Program for mainstreaming disaster risk management in developing countries for the period April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2015. The program was established in February 2014 as a partnership between the Ministry of Finance of Japan (MoF) and the World Bank.
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyThis report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. For each region, the report addresses the regional patterns of climate change, such as heat extremes, extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones/hurricanes, and sea-level rise.
Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resource ...Published by: World Bank ; 2014
This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. For each region, the report addresses the regional patterns of climate change, such as heat extremes, extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones/hurricanes, and sea-level rise.
Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations.
The report argues that the benefits of strong, early action on climate change - action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies - far outweigh the costs, and that many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But the time to act is now.
Format: Digital (Free)
ISBN (or other code): 978-1-4648-0437-3
Tags: Climate change ; Climate policies ; Agroclimatology ; Food Safety ; Severe cold ; Heat wave ; Cyclone ; Drought ; Flood ; Region I - Africa ; Region III - South America ; Region II - Asia ; Region IV - North America, Central America and the Caribbean ; Region VI - Europe Add tagInformation on ecosystem characteristics as well as economic statistics is needed to more fully inform decision makers on the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Climate change risks involve potentially large and irreversible as well as highly uncertain impacts that need to be evaluated with information that complements cost-benefit analysis. Information on the irreversibility of impacts also is relevant for evaluating implications for intergenerational equity. In addition, climate change is subject to a large degree of Knightian uncertainty, making it useful to understand how indiv ...Published by: World Bank ; 2014
Information on ecosystem characteristics as well as economic statistics is needed to more fully inform decision makers on the impacts of climate change on human well-being. Climate change risks involve potentially large and irreversible as well as highly uncertain impacts that need to be evaluated with information that complements cost-benefit analysis. Information on the irreversibility of impacts also is relevant for evaluating implications for intergenerational equity. In addition, climate change is subject to a large degree of Knightian uncertainty, making it useful to understand how individuals perceive and evaluate climate change risks.
Format: Digital (Free)This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced ...Published by: World Bank ; 2014
This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa.
Format: Digital (Free)World Bank, 2014Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mecha ...PermalinkPermalinkGlobal Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the ; Switzerland Government - World Bank, 2014This report aims to support the Government of Morocco in the development of an integrated risk management strategy. The report summarizes methodologies, data, assumptions, results, comparative analyses, international benchmarks and other aspects of Morocco’s risks.
Developing and adopting a national strategy for integrated risk management (IRM) will not only make Morocco better prepared to avoid future crises, and be more reactive and resilient if/when they occur, but also allow the government to make more informed decisions on overall resource allocation and prioritization.PermalinkThis paper investigates the causal chain between climate change, migration and conflict in the context of the Sahel region, with special focus on implications for the youth cohort living in the most vulnerable rural areas, and concludes with policy recommendations aimed at mitigation of the effects of climate variability and prevention of youth engagement in climate change effects-related conflict and crime.PermalinkThis document evaluates the progress of risk management in Colombia proposes recommendations that will enable the Government to set up public policies in this area on a short-and long-term basis. It defines a set of recommendations so that disaster risk management becomes a State policy, emphasizing that improving land use and land occupation conditions is a priority in reducing the impact of disasters. The technical analysis included in the report is intended for those responsible for implementing disaster risk management policies, as well as professionals, researchers, and experts in the sub ...PermalinkFaced with the growing risks of weather and climate disasters to economic and social development, the global community needs to act quickly to strengthen National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). This strengthening should be done in a way that transforms weak agencies—especially in the developing world—into robust professional agencies capable of delivering the right information to the right people at the right time. Although the price tag of modernizing and sustaining NMHSs will be considerable, the rewards for the country and its citizens will be much higher. The World Bank, ...PermalinkThis case study is part of World Bank Treasury's financial solutions in practice series. It introduces Mexico government's initiatives, which allowed the country to move from an ex-post response to natural disasters to an ex-ante preparedness approach, through: (i) the fund for natural disasters, to which it transfers budgetary funds for disaster relief and reconstruction efforts; and (ii) an institutional framework for disaster preparedness involving risk assessment, risk reduction, the promotion of a culture of prevention, and insurance.
The paper also features Mexican sub-na ...PermalinkHow can countries prepare to manage the impact of climate-change induced natural disasters? How can countries ensure that they have the governmental institutions required to manage the challenge of adaptation to climate change? In this paper, a range of economic and institutional measures are tested for their potential effects on natural disaster resilience and the quality of environmental governance. The findings suggest an important role is played by social and political institutions in determining the success of adaptation and response to natural disasters, in particular in the degree to wh ...PermalinkShyam K.C.; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the ; World Bank the - World Bank, 2013This note briefly surveys existing evidence in developing countries with regard to the benefits and costs of various disaster risk reduction interventions so as to provide some general lessons for disaster risk reduction (DRR) practitioners on the strengths and limitations of such existing work. In doing so, the note examines evidence on the economics of DRR in developing countries.
The note begins by providing a comparative guideline for analysis. This is followed by a summary diagnostic of seventeen case studies along five key dimensions comprising the guideline as follows: ( ...PermalinkThis issue asserts that data is essential to inform decisions aimed at reducing disaster risk and presents examples of interventions and outcomes in Grenada, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Haiti, and Belize aimed at fostering a culture of informed decision-making. Governments across the Caribbean region are implementing new technologies and data-management practices, engaging in regional communities, and piloting multi-sector investment strategies to address disaster and climate change risk. It highlights the OpenDRI tools and technologies, and open source tools, such as GeoNod ...PermalinkThis booklet reports on World Bank's support in the Pacific through investments in disaster and climate risk assessments, and on risk reduction across a range of areas through community driven development, water and coastal management, transport and agriculture. It provides a snapshot of the challenges posed by climate change and natural hazards in the Pacific, policy recommendations, and details of the World Bank Group's work across the region in helping build resilience to disasters and climate change. It is structured as follows: (i) part one presents Pacific island as the most vulnerable i ...PermalinkThis report aims to assist decision-makers in Jordan and Lebanon in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the agricultural sector and to develop local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, in order to build agricultural resilience in the two countries. The report is divided into four chapters: (i) chapter one introduces the background of the study and the structure of the report; (ii) chapter two provides a synthesis of evidence of climate variability and change in Jordan and Lebanon; (iii) chapter three explains the methodology of the st ...PermalinkThree recent rounds (2003, 2006, and 2009) of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey are matched to rainfall data from 43 rainfall stations in the Philippines to quantify the extent to which unusual weather has any negative effects on the consumption of Filipino households. It is found that negative rainfall shocks decrease consumption, in particular food consumption. Rainfall below one standard deviation of its long-run average causes food consumption to decrease by about 4 percent, when compared with rainfall within one standard deviation. Positive deviations above one standard deviation h ...PermalinkThis paper examines the effects of climate change on poverty through the relationship between indicators of climate change (temperature and rainfall change) and municipal level gross domestic product, and subsequently between gross domestic product and poverty. The evidence suggests that climate change could have a negative impact on poverty by 2030. The paper proposes a two-stage least squares regression where it first regresses temperature and rainfall (along with geographic controls and state and year fixed effects) on municipal gross domestic product per capita for 2000 and 2005 The result ...PermalinkWhich cities have the highest risk of human and economic losses due to natural hazards? And how will urban exposure to major hazards change over the coming decades? This paper develops a global urban disaster risk index that evaluates the mortality and economic risks from disasters in 1,943 cities in developing countries. Concentrations of population, infrastructure, and economic activities in cities contribute to increased exposure and susceptibility to natural hazards. The three components of this risk measure are urban hazard characteristics, exposure, and vulnerability. For earthquakes, cy ...PermalinkThis paper reviews the literature on the potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change in the Himalayas. Existing observations indicate that the temperature is rising at a higher rate in Nepal and Chinese regions of the Himalayas compared with rest of the Himalayas. A declining trend of monsoon in the western Indian Himalayas and an increasing trend in the eastern Indian Himalayas have been observed, whereas increasing precipitation and stream flow in many parts of Tibetan Plateau are noted. Glaciers in both the eastern and western Himalayas are mostly retreating, but the majori ...PermalinkThis report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis gives a more detailed look at how the negative impacts of climate change already in motion could create devastating conditions especially for those least able to adapt. It asserts that the case for resilience has never been stronger. This report demands action. It reinforces the fact that climate change is a fundamental threat to economic development and the ...PermalinkThis report outlines the challenges and opportunities as well as new priorities for the disaster risk management (DRM) field in East Asia and the Pacific. It takes stock of the most important activities, highlights examples of global good practice and innovative products, and makes recommendations for reducing risks and building resilience in the short, medium, and long run. It presents a comprehensive disaster risk management framework that offers practical opportunities for targeted policy action and investments, stretching across sectors and jurisdictions and reaching all the way to communi ...PermalinkHo Chi Minh City faces significant and growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may be insufficient as climate and socio-economic conditions diverge from projections made when those efforts were initially planned. This study demonstrates how robust decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated flood risk management strategies in the face of such deep uncertainty. Robust decision making is an iterative, quantitative, decision support methodology designed to help policy makers identify strategies that are robust, that is, satisfying decision makers' objectives in many pla ...PermalinkThis book has two main aims: to demonstrate to international development agencies, governments, policy makers, project managers, practitioners, and community residents that landslide hazard can often be reduced in vulnerable urban communities in the developing world, and to provide practical guidance for those in charge of delivering Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC) on the ground. The purpose of the book is to take readers into the most vulnerable communities in order to understand and address rainfall-triggered landslide hazards in these areas.PermalinkThis report provides Mayors and other policymakers with a policy framework and diagnostic tools to anticipate and implement strategies that can prevent their cities from locking into irreversible physical and social structures, including: improving living conditions, especially in slums and hazard-prone areas; bridging the divided cities (inclusion); expanding the coverage and quality of basic infrastructure services; and managing the city’s physical form.PermalinkPermalinkThis report argues that the practice of disaster risk management (DRM) is a defining characteristic of resilient societies, and should therefore be integrated – or ‘mainstreamed’ – into all aspects of development. It (i) analyses the alarming trend of disasters and development; (ii) presents disaster risk management in action through four pillars (risk identification, risk reduction, preparedness, financial protection and resilient reconstruction); (iii) features the need for national policies and planning; (iv) reviews international development cooperation, including financing and policies, a ...PermalinkThe purpose of this working paper is to review a set of Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) initiatives and pilot studies funded by the World Bank’s Water Partnership Program (WPP) in Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, and Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
The report is structured into three chapters:
(1)Introduces the main concepts of IUWM;
(2)Reviews the findings of 10 case studies;
(3)Puts forward recommendations to sustain and enhance the scope of IUWM activities;PermalinkThis report is a preliminary effort to present a body of knowledge on the state of disaster risk financing and insurance in Sub-Saharan Africa. It aims to contribute to a strengthened understanding and collective knowledge within Sub-Saharan Africa on disaster risk financing and insurance, and to encourage open dialogue between stakeholders on how strategies can best be developed to increase financial resilience against natural disasters. It is targeted at policy-makers and actors in the international community with an interest in this agenda. In the context of this report, disaster risk finan ...PermalinkThis report presents an extensive review of the World Bank’s experience dealing with climate variability and climate change, offering valuable lessons on adaptation efforts worldwide. It answers questions in three areas: (i) dealing with climate variability; (ii) factoring climate change risks into investment projects; and (iii) anticipating climate change. In addition to this learning-focused agenda, the evaluation also asks how the Bank Group has performed against climate adaptation goals of the Bank Group’s Strategic Framework for Development and Climate Change (FY09-11).
The evalua ...PermalinkAdapting to climate change is not a new phenomenon for the Arab world. For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. Their experience has contributed significantly to the global knowledge on climate change and adaptation. But over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to increase, and Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may reach new highs, and in most places there may be a risk of less rain ...PermalinkScientific evidence indicates that global warming could well lead to a sea-level rise of 1 meter or more in the 21st century. This paper seeks to quantify how a 1-meter sea-level rise that would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account how much of wetlands would be submerged and how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes. It is estimated that approximately 64 percent of the freshwater marsh, 66 percent of Global Lakes and Wetlands Database coastal wetlands, and 61 percent of brackish/saline wetlands are at risk. A large per ...PermalinkThis report spells out what the world would be like if it warmed by 4 degrees Celsius, which is what scientists are nearly unanimously predicting by the end of the century, without serious policy changes. It provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4° Celsius warming within this century, ranging from sea-level rise to increases in tropical cyclone intensity, unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services.PermalinkThe purpose of the ‘Green Water Defense in East Asia’ study is to take stock of advances in management practices, institutional and technological innovations for managing water resources under changing climate. The focus of this note is on green water defense for flood risk management in deltas and other areas vulnerable to flooding.PermalinkThis study will assess advances in management practices, institutional and technological innovations for managing water scarcity sustainably under a changing climate. The impetus for this analysis comes from the World Bank’s concept note ‘Towards Green Water Defense (GWD) in East Asia’ study, specifi cally one of the building blocks of the GWD concept: Managing water scarcity by “producing more with less” or increasing water productivity and reducing undesirable externalities.PermalinkAlthough poverty remains widespread in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, substantial progress has been made especially in the past three decades. Nevertheless, this report stresses that climate change is likely to reduce agricultural productivity, which will directly affect poor people's livelihood assets including health, access to water and other natural resources, homes and infrastructure. Increasing climatic variability will make poor households even more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which could in turn exacerbate the incidence, severity and persistence of poverty in developi ...PermalinkThis paper investigates the link between development, economic growth, and the economic losses from natural disasters in a general analytical framework, with an application to hurricane flood risks in New Orleans. It concludes that where capital accumulates through increased density of capital at risk in a given area, and the costs of protection therefore increase more slowly than capital at risk, (i) protection improves over time and the probability of disaster occurrence decreases; (ii) capital at risk -- and thus economic losses in case of disaster -- increases faster than economic growth; ...PermalinkThis document includes a set of 32 notes grouped into six thematic clusters: (i) structural measures; (ii) non-structural measures; (iii) emergency response; (iv) reconstruction planning; (v) hazard and risk information and decision making; and (vi) economics of disaster risk, risk management, and risk financing. The notes are collecting and analyzing information, data, and evaluations performed by academic and research institutions, non-governmental organizations, government agencies, and the private sector—all with the objective of sharing Japan’s knowledge on disaster risk management (DRM) ...PermalinkThis paper reviews dynamic general equilibrium models in order to collect insights on the interaction between economic growth and environmental issues. The authors discuss the Ramsey model and extend it for natural resource inputs and pollution, as well as for endogenous technical change. Green growth becomes within reach if there is good substitution, a clean backstop technology, a small share of natural resources in gross domestic product, and/or green directed technical change.PermalinkThis publication presents some of the outcomes of GEF-funded work managed by UNDP in Europe and the CIS that aims to conserve biodiversityPermalinkThis report is divided into three major sections designed to give urban planners and practitioners an intuitive and easy way to build elements of resilience into their urban governance and city planning. It includes case studies and tables providing good practice examples and further details.PermalinkWhile agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties ...PermalinkThe consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide mo ...PermalinkThis study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with non-flood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed i ...PermalinkPermalinkThis comprehensive work book provides tips on urban adaptation drawn from efforts to boost climate resilience in cities in Vietnam. It has been produced by the World Bank Group and is intended to assist policymakers in developing countries plan for anticipated impacts of climate change. The work book is designed to provide a user-friendly, step-by-step approach to national, provincial and local planning. It is argued that the potential impacts of natural disasters and climate change should be considered in nearly every aspect of urban planning and development.PermalinkThis study study examines the inter linkages between climate change, disaster risk, and the urban poor. This study calls on cities to take a lead role in proactively addressing the risks of climate change and natural hazards at the local level, with a focus on populations at highest risk. It suggests a number of actions that cities can take to build resilience, beginning with mainstreaming pro-poor risk reduction policies into urban planning and management.PermalinkThis Policy and Practice Note grows out of extensive consultations with countries, regional organizations, and donors and other development partners, and it is addressed primarily to high-level policymakers and decision makers within them. Its analysis and recommendations are meant to inform DRR and CCA planning across a range of institutions at all levels. Specifically, they are intended to inform the design and implementation of the joint Roadmap towards a Post 2015 Integrated Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation, as well as preparation ...PermalinkThe purpose of this report is to improve the knowledge base for facilitating investments in land management technologies that sequester soil organic carbon. While there are many studies on soil carbon sequestration, there is no single unifying volume that synthesizes knowledge on the impact of different land management practices on soil carbon sequestration rates across the world. A meta-analysis was carried out to provide soil carbon sequestration rates in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. This is one important element in decision-making for sustainable agricultural intensification, agro-ecosy ...PermalinkThe Little Green Data Book is a pocket-sized ready reference on key environmental data for over 200 economies. Key indicators are organized under the headings of agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, energy, emission and pollution, and water and sanitation.PermalinkCities contribute an estimated 70 percent of the world's energy-related greenhouse gases (GHG). Their locations, often in low-elevation coastal zones, and large populations make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. But cities often take steps, even ahead of national governments, to reduce GHG emissions. So it is with China's cities, which are well placed to chart a low-carbon growth path to help reach China's national targets for reducing the energy and carbon intensity of its economy. China's cities will need to act on multiple fronts, in some cases scaling up elemen ...PermalinkIn Europe, it can be estimated that hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems save several hundreds of lives per year, avoid between 460 million and 2.7 billion Euros of disaster asset losses per year, and produce between 3.4 and 34 billion of additional benefits per year through the optimization of economic production in weather-sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy, etc.). The potential for similar benefits in the developing world is not only proportional to population, but also to increased hazard risk due to climate and geography, as well as increased exposure to weather ...PermalinkA healthy ocean is a valuable natural asset that, if maintained and nurtured, can provide ‘ecosystem services’ that contribute to economic expansion – or ‘blue growth’ – in developing coastal and island countries. World Bank investments in the oceans between 2007 and 2011 have supported developing coastal and island countries in improving the health of their ocean environments, enhancing the value of the ecosystem services they provide to the local and global economy. In particular, these investments supported countries to manage the transition to more sustainable fisheries, establish coastal ...PermalinkBased on an IO structure, the ARIO-inventory model simulates the economic consequences and responses to a natural disaster. It represents explicitly production bottlenecks, models a flexibility in production capacity in case of scarcity, and introduces inventories as an additional flexibility in the production system. Moreover, it takes into account the heterogeneity in goods and services within sectors, and the consequences on production bottlenecks and substitution possibilities. The model is applied to the landfall of hurricane Katrina in Louisiana. Sensitivity analyses show that results ar ...Permalink"The brief explains that all of the 17 country assistance and partnership strategies prepared in Fiscal Year 2011 address climate change. It also showcases results achieved in projects related to: forestry, which help sequester carbon and increase resilience; “climate smart” agriculture, where the focus is on a triple-win – carbon sequestration, food security and climate resilient livelihoods; and water efficiency measures in urban municipalities that reduce water and energy consumption and emissions from water pumping and distribution.
Results of projects dealing with sustainab ...PermalinkThe term 'green jobs' can refer to employment in a narrowly defined set of industries providing environmental services. But it is more useful for the policy-maker to focus on the broader issue of the employment consequences of policies to correct environmental externalities such as anthropogenic climate change. Most of the literature focuses on direct employment created, with more cursory treatment of indirect and induced job creation, especially that arising from macroeconomic effects of policies. The potential adverse impacts of green growth policies on labor productivity and the costs of em ...Permalink'Green' growth, 'green' jobs and labor markets (English)
The term 'green jobs' can refer to employment in a narrowly defined set of industries providing environmental services. But it is more useful for the policy-maker to focus on the broader issue of the employment consequences of policies to correct environmental externalities such as anthropogenic climate change. Most of the literature focuses on direct employment created, with more cursory treatment of indirect and induced job creation, especially that arising from macroeconomic effects of policies. The potential ad ...PermalinkCities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st Century provides forward-looking operational assistance to policy makers and technical specialists in the rapidly expanding cities and towns of the developing world on how best to manage the risk of floods. It takes a strategic approach, in which appropriate risk management measures are assessed, selected and integrated in a process that both informs and involves the full range of stakeholders.PermalinkThis paper provides a primer on the fiscal implications of climate change, in particular the policies for responding to it. Many of the complicated challenges that arise in limiting climate change (through greenhouse gas emissions mitigation), and in dealing with the effects that remain (through adaptation to climate change impacts), are of a fiscal nature. While mitigation has the potential to raise substantial public revenue (through charges on greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation largely leads to fiscal outlays. Policies may unduly favor public spending (on technological solutions to limit ...PermalinkAssuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas—and the resulting increase in disaster losses—may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. With disasters possibly becoming less frequent but increasingly destructive in the future, average disaster losses may grow faster than wealth. Myopic expectations, lack of information, moral hazard, and externalities reinforce the likelihood of this scen ...PermalinkThe report is an effort to inform project developers and policy-makers about the main lessons learned by the BioCarbon Fund while accompanying the development of more than 20 A/R CDM forest projects in 16 countries since it started operations in 2004. It sheds light on opportunities the CDM offers to the forestry sector and also on the challenges encountered by project developers when complying with the regulatory requirements. The report concludes with recommendations for policy-makers on how current rules could be made more pragmatic to better match the realities of this type of projects on ...PermalinkMany experts believe that low-cost mitigation opportunities in agriculture are abundant and comparable in scale to those found in the energy sector. They are mostly located in developing countries and have to do with how land is used. By investing in projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), countries can tap these opportunities to meet their own Kyoto Protocol obligations. The CDM has been successful in financing some types of agricultural projects, including projects that capture methane or use agricultural by-products as an energy source. But agricultural land-use projects are s ...PermalinkUsing household survey data, this paper estimates the mortality impact of improved water and sanitation access in order to evaluate the potential contribution of water and sanitation investment toward achieving the child mortality targets defined in Millennium Development Goal 4. The authors find that the average mortality reduction achievable by investment in water and sanitation infrastructure is 25 deaths per 1,000 children born across countries, a difference that accounts for about 40 percent of the gap between current child mortality rates and the 2015 target set in the Millennium Develop ...PermalinkThe authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to ...PermalinkThis adaptation coalition toolkit was developed to promote the strategic empowerment of people by creating more inclusive, cohesive, and accountable societies in the face of climate change. Its purpose is to guide facilitating groups or teams of development practitioners in pursuing participatory collaboration with communities to research and implement adaptation coalitions to assist the locality in adapting to the local manifestations of climate change and facilitate the adaptation of vulnerable communities.
The framework for this toolkit was developed from testing its implementation ...PermalinkAssuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas -- and the resulting increase in disaster losses -- may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. With disasters possibly becoming less frequent but increasingly destructive in the future, average disaster losses may grow faster than wealth. Myopic expectations, lack of information, moral hazard, and externalities reinforce the likelihood of thi ...PermalinkThis paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the resulting damage when a cyclone strikes each country. Economic development is expected to double global tropical cyclone damages because more will be in harm's way. Climate change is expected to double global ...PermalinkGlobal warming is expected to heavily impact agriculture, the dominant source of livelihood for the world's poor. Yet, little is known about the distributional implications of climate change at the sub-national level. Using a simple comparative statics framework, this paper analyzes how changes in the prices of land, labor, and food induced by modest temperature increases over the next three decades will affect household-level welfare in India. The authors predict a substantial fall in agricultural productivity, even allowing for farmer adaptation. Yet, this decline will not translate into a s ...PermalinkThe authors analyze the determinants of fatalities in 2,194 large flood events in 108 countries between 1985 and 2008. Given that socioeconomic factors can affect mortality right in the aftermath of a flood, but also indirectly by influencing flood frequency and magnitude, they distinguish between direct and indirect effects of development on flood mortality. The authors find that income is negatively associated with the frequency of floods and, conditional on their magnitude, the fatalities they cause in developing countries. However, for developed countries they find that increased income is ...PermalinkThe objective of study of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applications of such predictions to planning for sustainable economic development. This report presents a summary of the efforts of a Bank energy and climate change team to develop methodological tools for the asse ...PermalinkThe report, Cities and Climate Change: An Urgent Agenda, says that up to 80 percent of the expected $80 billion to $100 billion per year in climate change adaptation costs will likely be borne by urban areas. Nevertheless, says the report, climate change offers cities opportunities to alter course, implement smart policies, and develop sustainable communities. Well managed, dense cities are also shown to be the most important pre-requisite to mitigation of GHG emissions and overall sustainable development.PermalinkThe question of whether biofuels help mitigate climate change has attracted much debate in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents land-use change impacts due to the expansion of biofuels, this study attempts to shed some light on this question. The study shows that if biofuel mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40 countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using crop feedstocks, and if both forests and pasture lands are used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion, this would cause a net increase of gr ...PermalinkGlobal warming is expected to heavily impact agriculture, the dominant source of livelihood for the world's poor. Yet, little is known about the distributional implications of climate change at the sub-national level. Using a simple comparative statics framework, this paper analyzes how changes in the prices of land, labor, and food induced by modest temperature increases over the next three decades will affect household-level welfare in India. The authors predict a substantial fall in agricultural productivity, even allowing for farmer adaptation. Yet, this decline will not translate into a s ...PermalinkClimate change is believed to represent a serious challenge to poverty reduction efforts around the globe. This paper conducts an up-to-date review of three main strands of the literature analyzing the poverty impacts of climate change : (i) economy-wide growth models incorporating climate change impacts to work out consistent scenarios for how climate change might affect the path of poverty over the next decades; (ii) studies focusing on the poverty impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector; and (iii) studies exploring how past climate variability impacts poverty. The analysis find ...PermalinkThis paper explores the reduction of food insecurity in Bolivia, adopting a supply side approach that analyzes the role of agricultural spending on vulnerability. Vulnerability to food insecurity is captured by a municipal level composite—developed locally within the framework of World Food Program food security analysis—that combines welfare outcomes, weather conditions and agricultural potential for all 327 municipalities in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Our econometric results indicate that levels of public agricultural spending are positively associated with high or very high vulnerability. The aut ...PermalinkThe technical report, prepared by Stephen Crooks, Dorothee Herr, Jerker Tamelander, Dan Laffoley and Justin Vandever, consolidates information from the literature and provides analysis on the climate change mitigation potential of seagrasses and coastal wetlands, including coastal peats, tidal freshwater wetlands, salt marshes and mangroves (see Annex 2). The numbers in this full technical report have been adjusted since the synthesis note, produced while the study was in progress, was released in Cancun. The calculations of emissions are ballpark, but reasonable, and represent an order of mag ...PermalinkHuman and economic developments are closely linked to geography. The mission of the World Bank Group is to assist countries to overcome poverty and establish a sustainable path for their development. Providing reliable information about the state of the world and its people is an important part of that mission. Recognizing the formidable challenges and great successes that have been achieved should strengthen our resolve to work together to fight poverty and increase human welfare. To that end the World Bank has published an atlas for over 40 years. This edition of the Atlas of Global Developm ...PermalinkUrban flooding is an increasingly important issue. Disaster statistics appear to show flood events are becoming more frequent, with medium-scale events increasing fastest. The impact of flooding is driven by a combination of natural and human-induced factors. As recent flood events in Pakistan, Brazil, Sri Lanka and Australia show, floods can occur in widespread locations and can sometimes overwhelm even the best prepared countries and cities. There are known and tested measures for urban flood risk management, typically classified as structural or engineered measures, and non-structural, mana ...PermalinkAdaptation has long been neglected in the debate and policies surrounding climate change. However, increasing awareness of climate change has led many stakeholders to look for the best way to limit its consequences and has resulted in a large number of initiatives related to adaptation, particularly at the local level. This report proposes a general economic framework to help stakeholders in the public sector to develop effective adaptation strategies. To do so, it lays out the general issues involved in adaptation, including the role of uncertainty and inertia, and the need to consider struct ...PermalinkThis paper investigates the potential of and constraints to a rice Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa's large-scale irrigation schemes, using data from Uganda, Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Senegal. The authors find that adequate irrigation, chemical fertilizer, and labor inputs are the key to high productivity. Chemical fertilizer is expensive in Uganda and Mozambique and is barely used. This is aggravated when water access is limited because of the complementarities between fertilizer and irrigation. Meanwhile, in the schemes located in four countries in West Africa's Sahel ...PermalinkThis paper quantifies hurricane damage caused by climate change across the United States. A damage function is estimated from historic hurricane data to measure the impacts at each location given the storm's strength. The minimum barometric pressure of each storm turns out to be a better indicator of damages than the traditional measure of maximum wind speed. A hurricane generator in the Atlantic Ocean is then used to create 5,000 storms with and without climate change. Combining the location and intensity of each storm with the income and population projected for each location, it is possible ...PermalinkNatural disasters could constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for reconstruction and relief expenses. This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model to systematically estimate the impact of geological, climatic, and other types of natural disasters on government expenditures and revenues using annual data for high and middle-income countries over 1975-2008. The authors find that, on average budget, deficits increase only after climatic disasters, but for lower-middle-income countries, the increase in deficits is ...PermalinkThis paper examines the impacts of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days more than a standard deviation from their respective long-run means, on household consumption per capita and child height-for-age. The results reveal that the current risk-coping mechanisms are not effective in protecting these two dimensions of welfare from erratic weather patterns. These findings imply that the change in the patterns of climatic variability associated with climate change is likely to reduce the effectiveness of the current coping mechanisms even more and thus increase household vuln ...PermalinkPermalinkNatural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters looks at disasters primarily through an economic lens. Economists emphasize self-interest to explain how people choose the amount of prevention, insurance, and coping. But lenses can distort as well as sharpen images, so the book also draws from other disciplines: psychology to examine how people may misperceive risks, political science to understand voting patterns, and nutrition science to see how stunting in children after a disaster impairs cognitive abilities and productivity as adults much later. It asks not only the tough questions, but some unexpect ...PermalinkLarge-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institu-tions publish numerous assessments of the "cost of the disaster." However these assessments are based on different methodologies and approaches, and they often reach different results.PermalinkThis study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries ...PermalinkAs natural disasters hit with increasing frequency, especially in coastal areas, it is imperative to better understand how much natural disasters affect economies and their people. This requires disaggregated measures of natural disasters that can be reliably linked to households, the first challenge this paper tackles. In particular, a methodology is illustrated to create natural disaster and hazard maps from first hand, geo-referenced meteorological data. In a second step, the repeated cross-sectional national living standard measurement surveys (2002, 2004, and 2006) from Vietnam are augmen ...PermalinkHow should Tajikistan adapt to ongoing and future climate change, in particular given the many pressing development challenges it currently faces? The paper argues that for developing countries like Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change. It presents some key findings from a recent nationally representative household survey to illustrate the strong public support for more climate change related spending on better management of water resources, disaster management, agriculture, and public health--four key sectors that the governmen ...PermalinkPermalink75% of the world's poor live in rural areas. The World Bank's approach to rural development is multi-sectoral and focused on improving the well-being of rural people by building their productive, social, and environmental assets.PermalinkThe Kenya Climate Innovation Centre (Kenya CIC) is a World Bank-infoDev initiative (infoDev) designed to support the development and scale of locally relevant climate technologies in Kenya. Funded by UK Aid and DANIDA, the Kenya CIC provides incubation, capacity building services and financing to Kenyan entrepreneurs and Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) who are developing innovative climate mitigation and adaptation solutions.PermalinkThe development project objective (DPO) of the First Climate Change Development Policy Operation Program is to support the Government of Vietnam (GoV) in its efforts to address climate change by adopting policies and strengthening institutional capacity to promote climate resilient and lower carbon intensity development. Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, in particular to floods, storms, and sea-level rise. Climate change represents a significant threat to economic and human development, and the environment in Vietnam. Overall, the policy and inst ...PermalinkThe Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) Beta is a central hub of information, data and reports about climate change around the world.PermalinkThe vision of WBI's climate change team is to identify and foster the implementation of regional and local solutions to address the global challenge of climate change. By connecting climate practitioners and networks with each other we will become an international ‘Go-To-Place’ for learning and knowledge sharing on climate change.PermalinkThis World Bank's website, focused on Africa, provides a wide range of statistical data but also analytical reports and articles on each of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.PermalinkIn response to the severity of the food crisis and the need for prompt action, the World Bank Group set up the Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFRP) in May 2008 to provide immediate relief to countries hard hit by food high prices. The Bank response has been articulated in coordination with the United Nations’ High-Level Task Force (HLTF) on food security. Through its response, the Bank is supporting the implementation of the joint Comprehensive Framework for Action (CFA).PermalinkEfficient, affordable and clean energy supply is key to poverty reduction and economic growth. The World Bank supports developing countries' efforts to provide cleaner, stable electricity services to households and businesses through its financing instruments, policy advice, partnerships, and knowledge transfer.PermalinkClimate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest. Its effects—higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and more frequent weather-related disasters—pose risks for agriculture, food, and water supplies. At stake are recent gains in the fight against poverty, hunger and disease, and the lives and livelihoods of billions of people in developing countries.Permalink