This lesson introduces forecasters to the various probabilistic guidance products used by the National Hurricane Center to forecast storm surge. It provides an overview of how these probabilistic surge products are created, their purposes, and why they are preferred to deterministic-only style guidance for specific events. The lesson also provides practice in correctly interpreting probabilistic storm surge guidance at various phases of an event. Basic familiarity with probabilistic forecast guidance is required. This online lesson is part of the Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge: Forecasting and Communication course.
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