Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information for Everyday Users - Presentation at 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=1250Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2016
Although previous research suggests that we are not very good at reasoning with uncertainty, the research described in this talk is far more encouraging. Unlike earlier work that compares peoples' decisions to a rational standard, these experiments compared decisions made by people with uncertainty information to decisions made by people without uncertainty information. The results suggest that including specific numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts leads to better decisions. This talk was part of Meteorological Service of Canada's 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts precursor to the 49th CMOS Congress & 13th AMS Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography. This resource is made available courtesy of Dr. Susan Joslyn, Environment Canada, CMOS and The Eumetcal Project, and is not produced, owned or hosted by UCAR/COMET.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)
Tags: Weather forecasting ; Numerical weather prediction ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Simulation ; NWP Skills and Knowledge for Operational Meteorologists Add tag