This module, the latest in our series on Numerical Weather Prediction, covers the theory and use of ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). The module will help forecasters develop an understanding of the basis for EPSs, the skills to interpret ensemble products, and strategies for their use in the forecast process. It contains six sections: an Introduction that briefly presents background theory; Generation, which describes how ensemble systems are constructed; Statistical Concepts, which provides a brief refresher on knowledge required for ensemble product interpretation; Summarizing Data, which describes common ensemble forecast products; Verification, which discusses how EPSs performance is assessed and documented; and Case Applications, which provides links to a number of forecast cases illustrating the use of EPSs in the forecast process. Questions and Exercises are offered throughout to help you test your learning and provide practical examples. The module also includes a pre-assessment and module final quiz.
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