Wave Ensembles in the Marine Forecast Process

 Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=300

The NCEP Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) Ensemble Global Ocean Wave Forecast System (EGOWaFS) provides five-day forecasts of global winds, wind wave and swell conditions in probabilistic terms. This product became available early in 2007 both through an NCEP non-operational web page and, for raw data, through FTP for use by marine forecasters at NWS WFOs and other locations. The data from the EGOWaFS can be used in a number of ways, including:* As input to probabilistic marine forecasts for wind waves and swell* As input to a local wave ensemble, such as Simulated Waves Nearshore (SWAN)* As input to develop probabilistic forecasts for rip current developmentThis webcast has been developed to introduce the EGOWaFS to the marine forecasting community. Topics discussed include: The unique basis for ensemble prediction of ocean waves Graphics of EGOWaFS product output and their interpretation Case examples showing examples of EGOWaFS, including: Potential for EGOWaFS forecast bias resulting from systematic errors in wind forcing, Use of EGOWaFS data to provide boundary conditions for local near-shore wave models, and Application of EGOWaFS data to create a probabilistic forecast for the occurrence of rip currents.

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Language(s): English

Tags: Weather forecasting ; Numerical weather prediction ; Marine meteorology ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Marine Weather Forecasters ; NWP Skills and Knowledge for Operational Meteorologists Add tag