Analysis inter decadal of climate variability facing projections of the CMIP5 models and its involvement in the agricultural production of Venezuela
Agriculture is the largest employer in the world and is probably the most dependent on the climate of all human activities. In recent years there have been events that have put in evidence the vulnerability of global food security to major meteorological phenomena, both in global agricultural markets and the world economy. The food price crisis and the subsequent economic crisis reduced the purchasing power of large segments of the population in many developing countries, which seriously reduced their access to food and thus undermined their food security. During the years 2009 and 2010 in Venezuela there were strong weather anomalies, drought in the first case and the second extreme rains, caused mainly by the effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, with warm phase (El Niño) in 2009 and cold phase (La Niña) in 2010, affecting farming, mostly in Monagas, Anzoátegui and Guárico States negatively influencing its economy. The planning of agricultural production based on the use of agricultural information, as calendars of sowing, as well as the monitoring of the conditions during the crop cycle and the use of agrometeorological forecasting, then is of great importance for the development of the agricultural sector, because it minimizes the effects on food production which might be affected by climate variability, making it less vulnerable. Model results confirm the importance of known key physiological processes, such as the shortening of the time to maturity of a crop with increasing mean temperature, decline in grain set when high temperatures occur during flowering, and increased water stress at high temperatures throughout the growing cycle. Temperature responses are generally well understood for temperatures up to the optimum temperature for crop development. The impacts of prolonged periods of temperatures beyond the optimum for development are not as well understood. For this study the agro meteorological stations selected have daily records of all climatic elements, so it held a summary monthly apart from daily data (with prior quality control) for the accumulated monthly rainfall and temperature maximum and minimum for the 1971-2010 series. Therefore, Inter decadal rainfall and temperature analysis and the use of the cropwat 8.0 to model future scenarios can be estimated water requirements of main crops, allowing some adaptation measures to help mitigate the effects of climate change in the country's agricultural production. In selected stations were determined significant changes on ETc when the temperature increase and the availability of water is a key factor to reach the harvest. Adaptation measurements involve reducing risk and vulnerability; for developing countries rely heavily on climate-dependent agriculture and especially in conjunction with poverty and rapid increase in population they are vulnerable to climate change.
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