Forecasting heavy rainfall associated with in-situ convective cloud development over small island states is a challenge in operational forecasting as not all numerical models are able to resolve convection at such small scales. Forecasting of such phenomena is mainly based on prevailing local conditions and the use of a plethora of thermodynamic indices derived from the local sounding. This study is an effort to assess the suitability of the different available indices, hereafter referred as traditional indices, to forecast heavy rainfall from local convection, commonly known as pure sea breeze, over Mauritius. An attempt is also made to improve the forecast through modifications of the traditional indices, to include lower boundary layer temperature and moisture parameters. Suitable thresholds of all these indices are also determined via scatter plots of the events which are categorised into weak, moderate and severe based on hourly rainfall intensity.
Notes: Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment For a Master in Applied Meteorology with Climate and Management.
Supervisor: Dr. Pete Inness - If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).