Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model.
In this study, simple linear crop yield regression models are developed between the yield of each crop and weather variables, using observations for the period 1990 to 2010 as training data. Future crop yield is then projected by driving this model with calibrated projections of the relevant weather variables by the PRECIS regional climate model. The calibration of weather variables is done by two approaches, bias correction and change factor which are based on different assumptions of the relationship between the observed and modelled distributions of weather variables.
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