Towards improved seasonal rainfall forecast over Malawi: research report for WMO Class II 2005 to 2006
Extreme climate events such as floods and droughts have devastating socio-economic impacts associated with food shortages, famine, lack of energy, water, shelter and other major basic needs. Because these events are recurrent in nature, effective, accurate and timely prediction and early warning of these events can enable Governments and other stakeholders to put into motion appropriate actions for mitigating or alleviating their adverse impacts. In this study, the relationship between seasonal rainfall and global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies was examined. The analysis was based primarily on empirical statistical modeling using observed rainfall data from 9 meteorological stations spread over the entire Malawi spanning 35 years i.e. 1970-2005. The missing data in some stations were estimated using correlation and regression methods while single mass curve technique was employed to check the homogeneity of the rainfall data for all stations. Other methods employed in the study include correlation analysis, standardization, regression analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and model verification technique.
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