Recommended Methods for Evaluating Cloud and Related Parameters

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Cloud errors can have wide-reaching impacts on the accuracy and quality of outcomes, most notably, but not exclusively, on temperature. This is especially true for weather forecasting, where cloud cover has a significant impact on human comfort and wellbeing. Whilst public perception may not be interested in absolute precision, i.e. whether there were 3 or 5 okta of cloud, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest strong links between the perceptions of overall forecast accuracy and whether the cloud was forecast correctly, mostly because temperature errors often go hand-in-hand. It is therefore not surprising that forecasting cloud cover is one of the key elements in any public forecast, although the priority is dependent on the local climatology of a region. Forecasting cloudiness accurately remains one of the major challenges in many parts of the world. There are more demanding customers of cloud forecasts, notably the aviation sector, to name but one in particular, which has strict cloud-related safety guidelines. For example, Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) are a key component of airfield operations, although even now most of these are still manually compiled, and do not contain raw model forecasts. [...]

Collection(s) and Series:  WWRP- No. 2012-1

Language(s): English

Tags: Observations ; Guidelines ; Cloud ; Weather forecasting ; Forecast error ; Synoptic meteorology Add tag