Thesis from WMO Fellowship Division
Thesis from WMO Fellowship Division
For several decades, through its fellowship programme, WMO has trained many experts from developing countries. Highly commendable theses/dissertations have been prepared by these fellows in partial fulfillment of requirements for their post-graduate studies.
Given the limited information available to experts and students alike on issues related to meteorology, hydrology and allied disciplines we wish to share as much research related information as possible, through the WMO online library, on the work of the postgraduate fellows. Hence, this online dissemination of excerpts of theses/dissertations prepared by WMO fellows.
We hope readers will find the materials useful. Should you have any inquires, please contact fel(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
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Storm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system, climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures
The effects of global environmental change, including coastal flooding stemming from storm surges as well as reduced rainfall in drylands and water scarcity, have detrimental effects on countries and megacities in the costal regions worldwide. Among these, Bangladesh with its capital Dhaka is today widely recognised to be one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change and its triggered associated impacts. Natural hazards that come from increased rainfall, rising sea levels, and tropical cyclones are expected to increase as climate changes, each seriously affecting agriculture, water & fo ...EnglishStorm surges and coastal erosion in Bangladesh - State of the system, climate change impacts and 'low regret' adaptation measures
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Published by: Leibniz Universität ; 2012
The effects of global environmental change, including coastal flooding stemming from storm surges as well as reduced rainfall in drylands and water scarcity, have detrimental effects on countries and megacities in the costal regions worldwide. Among these, Bangladesh with its capital Dhaka is today widely recognised to be one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change and its triggered associated impacts. Natural hazards that come from increased rainfall, rising sea levels, and tropical cyclones are expected to increase as climate changes, each seriously affecting agriculture, water & food security, human health and shelter. It is believed that in the coming decades the rising sea level alone in parallel with more severe and more frequent storm surges and stronger coastal erosion will create more than 20 million people to migrate within Bangladesh itself (Black et al., 2011). Moreover, Bangladesh’s natural water resources are to a large part contaminated with arsenic contaminants because of the high arsenic contents in the soil. Up to 77 million people are exposed to toxic arsenic from drinking water (Reich, 2011). Given that background, the current MSc thesis should collect indicators as well as assess and critically discuss the present and likely future state of the coastal system and establish strategies as well as solutions in regard to storm surges and coastal erosion effects in Bangladesh.
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Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged in users) (ill., charts, maps)
Tags: Natural hazards ; Storm surge ; Erosion ; Littoral zone ; Climate change ; Adaptation ; Bangladesh ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Stream flow modeling in the Nacunday River Basin (Paraguay, South America) using SWAT model: a dissertation
Paraguay is a very rich country in water resources, owing to generous rainfall regime, very favorable weather conditions and has significant water resources development potential. To promote planning and development of water resources in the country, systematic studies are required to understand stream flow behavior. The present study is therefore, undertaken to study the stream flow behavior in the Nacunday river basin using the SWAT Model. The Nacunday river basin is predominantly agricultural watershed with soybean as main crop which is grown under no tillage practices and can be considered ...EnglishStream flow modeling in the Nacunday River Basin (Paraguay, South America) using SWAT model: a dissertation
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Published by: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee ; 2012
Paraguay is a very rich country in water resources, owing to generous rainfall regime, very favorable weather conditions and has significant water resources development potential. To promote planning and development of water resources in the country, systematic studies are required to understand stream flow behavior. The present study is therefore, undertaken to study the stream flow behavior in the Nacunday river basin using the SWAT Model. The Nacunday river basin is predominantly agricultural watershed with soybean as main crop which is grown under no tillage practices and can be considered as representative watershed in the region. Available hydrological data (January 1999 to September 2009) is split into two groups, one group (i.e. Jan 1999 to Dec 2005) is used for the model warm up and calibration of model parameters. The daily data of 1999 and 2000 is considered as model warm up period and the data from January 2001 up to the end of December 2005 is used for calibration of model parameters. The other group (i.e. Jan 2006 to Sep 2009) is used for validation of the model.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged in users) (ill., charts, maps)
Tags: Water ; Hydrology ; Stream discharge ; Modelling ; Paraguay ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Lesotho Climate Change Projections
Lesotho is a small mountainous country is southern Africa. Lesotho is a temperate region that has four distinct seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. It is among countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, future climate projections are vital to the country. Lesotho has submitted her first and the only report (FNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2000. The report includes vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment developed using the first generation low resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) output. This study was aimed ...EnglishPublished by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
Lesotho is a small mountainous country is southern Africa. Lesotho is a temperate region that has four distinct seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. It is among countries that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. As such, future climate projections are vital to the country. Lesotho has submitted her first and the only report (FNC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2000. The report includes vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment developed using the first generation low resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) output. This study was aimed at developing climate change scenarios using a high resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) called PRECIS which was developed by UK Met Office (UKMO). The results obtained from PRECIS are compared to FNC results and will also contribute towards the next V&A assessment. The work is unique in that it is the first study carried out to develop climate scenarios using high resolution RCM (50km grid space) which is driven by boundary data from five Physically Perturbed Ensemble (PPE) models of HadCM3 over Lesotho. In addition, changes in average annual/seasonal rainfall and temperatures as well as changes in variability of seasonal rainfall and temperatures in Lesotho are projected throughout the century (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099).
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged in users) (ill., charts, maps)
Tags: Climate ; Climate change ; Climate projection ; Lesotho ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria ...EnglishPublished by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria has been carried out using binary forecast verification methods based on a standard contingency table.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged in users) (ill., charts, maps)
Tags: Weather ; Weather service ; Weather forecasting ; Uganda ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the ...EnglishCapturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
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Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2012
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the science of the climate common to southern Caribbean region can be achieved, which is a prerequisite for effective decision is making in the region. This study addressed questions related to whether PRECIS, a regional climate modelling system, has the skill and quality, to reproduce recent and realistic near and medium term future climates of the extreme southern Caribbean with some focus on Trinidad and Tobago. The findings of the research revealed several observations in relation to the aim of the research. Temperature and rainfall variability in the region have changed in the recent past and given the observed trends are likely to continue changing in the future but with amplifications. PRECIS can adequately reproduce these changes along with the known annual cycle patterns of temperature and rainfall in the ESC and Trinidad and Tobago.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged in users) (ill., charts, maps)
Tags: Climate ; Climate change ; Climate projection ; Caribbean ; Trinidad and Tobago ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also prov ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Projection of crop yield in Bhutan under climate change using PRECIS regional climate model
Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model.
In this st ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Bivariate analysis and synthesis of flood events for the design of hydraulic structures – a case study for Argentina
A bibliographic review of the state of art of flood estimation techniques shows the importance of studying floods as multivariate events. The aim of this work is to discuss whether a multivariate analysis is necessary for designing dams or for assessing the adequacy of spillways belonging to existing dams. A multivariate approach offers a range of possible events associated to a joint return period, which can be used in a design stage. The multivariate criterion includes information related with the dependence structure linking the flood variables. This dependence is involved in the generation ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Assessment and modelling of climate variability and change in Cameroon (central Africa)
Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock and urban settlement are also facing an increasing threat due to extreme climate and weather events. In some cases today’s climate extremes are expected to become tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather. This assumption stresses the need of understanding the past, the current and hopefully to project local climate b ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Diagnosis of September-November Droughts/Floods over Uganda and the associated circulation anomalies
Uganda has experienced a number of extreme weather and climate events in the form of floods and droughts. In a number of cases, flood events associated with heavy rainfall have been followed immediately by droughts that tend to persist for several seasons. These events have always had devastating impacts on various sectors of the country's economy. The impacts include destruction of infrastructure, loss of life and property and many other far reaching socio-economic impacts. The impact of these extreme events can be greatly reduced through good understanding of previous climatic events and the ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Intercomparison of Models - Verification of Moderate Rainfall over Nigeria in the Summer of 2010
The science of weather forecasting is only as good as its ability to produce results. Models are some of the tools meteorologists have come to depend on to help them in forecasting and the dependability as well as reliability of a model is measured by its ability to track and forecast ahead of time a given event. Thus this study looked at the inter comparison of four models namely; GFS, ECMWF, UKMET and METEOFRANCE models, three of which are mostly used by the forecast offices of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency.EnglishPermalink![]()
Empirical analysis of temperature change in Sri Lanka during the last 140 years (1871-2010)
Sujeewa Kanda Durage; Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology ; College of Science - University of the Philippines, 2011Climatologists and meteorologists in Sri Lanka observe that ground temperature measurements in many weather stations have risen and people are experiencing more episodes of warmer weather. Sri Lanka is a country vulnerable to warming or rise in temperature; in particular its economic development is mostly dependent on agriculture, which can be severely affected by large and abrupt changes in temperature. This study was carried out to detect and characterize changes in surface temperature in the last 140 years, as a precursor of climate change in Sri Lanka. Daily maximum and minimum temperature ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Diagnosis of the relationship between weather variables and occurances of measles in Soroti and Serere districts
This study aims to investigate the relationship between weather variables and the occurrence of measles in Soroti and Serere districts in the Teso sub-region of North –Eastern Uganda. Monthly data of patients with measles from 1995 to 2010 was collected from the District Health Office, Soroti. Monthly data for rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity (at 0600 and 1200 UTC), and wind run for the same years was collected from the Department of Meteorology, Kampala. The methodologies included assessing the seasonal pattern of measles outbreak as well as relating the w ...EnglishPermalink![]()
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Tunisia
Ben Mansour Maher; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Center of Environnement Prediction (NCEP) - NOAA, 2011"To better understand the variability of rainfall in Tunisia, it was evident to treat series of data of around tens years. And to do this I used a set of Fortran programs and scripts Grads to represent a historic of 30 years of daily rainfall over the period 1978-2007 from 12 stations of the observing networks in Tunisia."EnglishPermalink![]()
Assessement of selected global models in short range forecasting over West Africa: case study of Senegal
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; ANAMS ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - WMO, 2011Severe weather events in West Africa are associated mainly with meso-scale thunderstorms and squall lines. Forecasting such severe weather to reduce the risk of hazards is one of the challenges faced by many met services. However, the recent progress in the area of numerical weather prediction has enabled some countries to forecast these events in a better way.
Due to lack of capacity, many of the West African countries were not able to use numerical weather prediction systems effectively in their day to day forecasting activities. The CPC/African Desk has been playing big role in buil ...EnglishPermalink