Thesis from WMO Fellowship Division
Thesis from the WMO Fellowship Division
For several decades, through its fellowship programme, WMO has trained many experts from developing countries. Highly commendable theses/dissertations have been prepared by these fellows in partial fulfillment of requirements for their post-graduate studies.
Given the limited information available to experts and students alike on issues related to meteorology, hydrology and allied disciplines we wish to share as much research related information as possible, through the WMO online library, on the work of the postgraduate fellows. Hence, this online dissemination of excerpts of theses/dissertations prepared by WMO fellows.
We hope readers will find the materials useful. Should you have any inquires, please contact fel(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
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Analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and sunphotometer measurements
Aerosols are small, micrometer-sized particles, whose optical effects coupled with their impact on cloud properties is a source of large uncertainty in climate models. Aerosols when inhaled are believed to have significant and detrimental effects on human health. Their presence also affects photosynthesis and agricultural production. Aerosol measurements are urgently required for the complete understanding and modeling their role in the climate system. This study builds on the analysis of Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) using Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and sun photometer measurements then ...
Analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and sunphotometer measurements
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Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
Aerosols are small, micrometer-sized particles, whose optical effects coupled with their impact on cloud properties is a source of large uncertainty in climate models. Aerosols when inhaled are believed to have significant and detrimental effects on human health. Their presence also affects photosynthesis and agricultural production. Aerosol measurements are urgently required for the complete understanding and modeling their role in the climate system. This study builds on the analysis of Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) using Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and sun photometer measurements then compare the AOD measured by the two systems. Passive (sunphotmetry) and active (lidar) measurements were employed to retrieve extensive optical signals (AOD and extinction coefficient respectively) and compared the optical coherency of these retrievals over a variety of aerosol in Pukou, Nanjing. Data for the year 2013 collected by both instruments were analyzed and compared at 532nm. The retrievals were performed using an existing deconvolution method applied to the sun photometry data and an algorithm based on Klett inversion method. Results of the lidar measurements showed that the AOD variations at different time intervals were mainly high at noon time. Differences and similarities in the AOD data trend were observed but generally, AOD value calculated from Lidar data are higher than that calculated from sunphotometer measurements.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (mahi92.saleh(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Aerosols ; Measure ; Meteorological instrument ; Research ; China ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Diagnosis Of Extreme Rainfall And Temperature Event Over Rwanda (1961-2010)
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Seas ...
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Season in the courses of the year. The first rainy season runs from March – May (MAM) with the highest precipitation in April and second rainy season from September to November (SON), which has recorded the highest precipitation in November. The spatial distribution of monthly precipitation from January to December similarly show that the rainy season runs from March- May (MAM) received the highest precipitation in the region compared to September-November (SON). Results further show that the years with standardized deviation of +1 or more (wet years) including ,MAM and SON respectively, 1961,1963,1970,1981,1994,1998,2001,2004,2006 and 2009 whereas floods years. And for standardized deviation of -1 or less (dry years) includes 1979, 1984, 1993,2000,2001,2007 and 2010 considered as droughts years. The circulation anomalies associated with wet and dry years studied over these identified years revealed that in Rwanda, the equatorial wind climatology is deeply modified by the relief at a varied altitude.
Forecasters would make Rwanda climate more predictable. Strategies that integrate land and water management, and disaster risk reduction, within a framework of emerging climate change risks would bolster resilient development in the face of impacts of the new set of climate in Rwanda.Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (ujacquie(at)yahoo.fr) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Extreme weather event ; Precipitation ; Extreme temperature ; Research ; Rwanda ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division ; Circulation anomaly pattern ; Wet and dry event ; Extreme Rainfall
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Drought Assessment Using SPEI and NDVI : Case of Lesotho
While drought conditions are generally a common and recurring phenomenon of the climate in Southern Africa especially Lesotho, the frequency of droughts in Lesotho has increased significantly over the past few years. Lesotho has suffered the devastating impacts of drought during the past several decades resulting in poor harvests and large livestock losses to rural farmers. The majority of the population in Lesotho engages with rain- fed agriculture and is dependent to some degree on own production for household food supply and/or cash income (Dejene, Midgley, & Marake, 2011). Any negative cha ...
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
While drought conditions are generally a common and recurring phenomenon of the climate in Southern Africa especially Lesotho, the frequency of droughts in Lesotho has increased significantly over the past few years. Lesotho has suffered the devastating impacts of drought during the past several decades resulting in poor harvests and large livestock losses to rural farmers. The majority of the population in Lesotho engages with rain- fed agriculture and is dependent to some degree on own production for household food supply and/or cash income (Dejene, Midgley, & Marake, 2011). Any negative changes in precipitation and droughts exacerbate poverty and suffering amongst the most vulnerable communities in Lesotho. For these reasons, it is imperative to understand the nature of droughts, particularly agricultural drought and how it can be monitored for better planning. The objective of this study will be: To study spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought over Lesotho using SPEI (derived from rainfall and temperatures) and NDVI/VCI from satellite data. […]
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (monnapulam(at)icloud.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Drought ; Lesotho ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2016
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The forecasts are produced daily at 08:00 UTC with a validity of 24 hours. Hourly Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) are used to verify the forecast. The forecast accuracy and skill is determined using Hit Rate (HR), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Frequency Bias (FBI), and Critical Success Index (CSI) evaluated from a 2-category contingency table. Significance of the forecast error is evaluated using a student’s t-test for difference in means at 0.05 significance level. The HR and CSI for the original forecast for all the three stations, Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley was below 20%. Upon adjusting the forecast using regression analysis, the HR and CSI for Heathrow improved to 53.7% and 40.8% respectively. The HR and CSI for Northolt improved to 27.4% and 24.2% respectively. The improvement for Kenley was insignificant since the HR and CSI slightly improved to values below 10%. Although this method is purely statistical hence do not involve physical dynamics that dictate fog formation, maintenance and dissipation, in absence of a dynamical methods that can be applied to improve the accuracy and skill of visibility forecast within fog range then regression methods used in this study is a better option especially for Heathrow airport.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (kizitoamua(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Fog ; Weather forecasting ; Research ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Inter annual summer rainfall variability over Zimbabwe and its possible mechanism
The variability and predictability of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe at inter-annual time scale is studied. Dry and wet seasons are identified using Zimbabwe Standardized Rainfall Index (ZRI). Seasonal rainfall and circulation patterns are investigated at inter annual time scale. The study focuses on the temporal and spatial variation of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe and tries to explain the circulation mechanisms associated with such phenomenon.
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
The variability and predictability of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe at inter-annual time scale is studied. Dry and wet seasons are identified using Zimbabwe Standardized Rainfall Index (ZRI). Seasonal rainfall and circulation patterns are investigated at inter annual time scale. The study focuses on the temporal and spatial variation of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe and tries to explain the circulation mechanisms associated with such phenomenon.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Precipitation ; Research ; Zimbabwe ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Interannual variation monthly rainfall from May to August associated with large-scale circulation anomalies over south coast of West Africa
The southern coastal region of West Africa (SCWA) is located between 40N-80N latitudes and 100W -50E longitudes near the equator in the northern Hemisphere, the south and west are respectively equatorial and West Atlantic Ocean, and it is consisted to seven countries (Sierra Leon, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria). The rainy season starts from spring to the summer, mainly from May to October. The rainfall is very important for southern coastal of West Africa region which their economy and food supply are highly dependent on agricultural production. Understanding of previo ...
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Investigating the variation of intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics in Sierra Leone
The rainy season in Sierra Leone is unimodal from April to October; an understanding of the inter-annual variability of rainfall in Sierra Leone is of importance to economic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, infrastructure, hydro-electric power generation (HEP) and water resources. This study investigated the variation of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics in Sierra Leone. Daily rainfall data from 4 synoptic stations was obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Department from 1990-2014.
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Projection of Future Streamflow Changes in the Pearl River Basin
Global climate change is remarkably changing the climatic patterns of the Pearl River basin and are significantly impacting the hydrological processes. Projection of future climate change impacts on steamflow variation is potential to provide scientific guidelines for sustainable water resources management and effective prevention and control for flood and drought disasters. In this study, a hydrological modeling system for assessing climate change impacts on runoffin the Pearl River basin was established and were used to simulate historical hydrological process and to project future streamflo ...
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Rainfall Variability over Zimbabwe and its relation to large-scale atmosphere-ocean processes
Mamombe Vimbai - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016For Zimbabwe, where rain fed agriculture is the backbone of the economy, the importance of accurate rainfall seasonal forecasts cannot be overemphasized (Makarau and Jury, 1997). In fact, extremes in interseasonal variability of rainfall can significantly complicate human livelihoods. In addition, there have been predictions of increased precipitation variability and hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall due to global warming (Field et al., 2014; Mushore, 2013a). Thus, detailed understanding of the major contributors to the rainfall variability over Zimbab ...
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The Sahel Drought Mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. A ...
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Spatial-temporal analysis and variability of meteorological drought during pre and south west monsoon period in Myanmar
The current study is an attempt to assess meteorological drought in Myanmar during the South west pre monsoon and monsoon period using observed rainfall data from 34 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1971 to 2010. The components of drought that were analyzed in this study were severity, persistence, frequency and probability of occurrence. Additional, trends in drought occurrence were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method while the wavelet analysis was applied to PI value to identify various periodic processes.
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Statistical analysis of rainfall trend and water vapor distribution over the Central African Republic
To apprehend the temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall over CAR, we computed thirty-three years (1981-2013) of monthly rainfall, relative humidity over the country divided into four (4) distinct sub-regions. Bearing different characteristics one to another, we found that Region 2 and Region 4 were having a statistical significant upward trend along the long term rainfall variation; meanwhile Region 3 was the one having a highest coefficient of variation on the yearly basis. The composite analysis showed that December, January and February were the months with higher frequency of va ...
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Statistical approach towards subseasonal prediction over the Maritime Continent
Ismail Norlaila - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016
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Study on the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Process Intensifying the Squall Lines over Guinea
This research investigates the dynamical and thermodynamical process of mesoscale convective system that intensifies squall lines wind speed propagation. The generation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and its lifecycle. The characteristics of squall lines (SLs) over West Africa (WA) which occurred In Guinea for two cases periods June 01-02 and June 13-14, 2015. In all six (6) AEWs have been tracked using reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). European Meteorological Satellite images (EUMETSAT) and Earth Networks WeatherBug StreamerRT were also used to ...
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Variability of Benin JJAS Precipitation associated with MAM SST Anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean
Precipitations vary consistently in Benin from 1981 to 2010. The present study reveals that the variation of Benin JJAS precipitation is positively correlated to MAM Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Atlantic Ocean with correlation coefficient more than 0.7. When the SST is higher (lower) in the Atlantic Ocean, precipitation over Benin tends to be above (below) normal. The years 1988, 1989, 2003, 2007 and 2008, were wet with 1988, 2003, 2008 high SST over Tropical Southern Atlantic Ocean (STAO) while the years 1982, 1983, 1992 and 1997 formed the dry years with low SST over Tropical Southern At ...
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