Thesis from WMO Fellowship Division
Thesis from the WMO Fellowship Division
For several decades, through its fellowship programme, WMO has trained many experts from developing countries. Highly commendable theses/dissertations have been prepared by these fellows in partial fulfillment of requirements for their post-graduate studies.
Given the limited information available to experts and students alike on issues related to meteorology, hydrology and allied disciplines we wish to share as much research related information as possible, through the WMO online library, on the work of the postgraduate fellows. Hence, this online dissemination of excerpts of theses/dissertations prepared by WMO fellows.
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Maize Suitability in the Lowlands of Lesotho
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defined that the suitability is a function of crop climate requirements and land characteristics and it is a measure of how will the qualities of land unit matches the requirements of a particular form of land use. The aim of this research is to improve maize production in the lowlands of Lesotho, this is one of the agro-ecological zones with the most arable land and good soils so it is best to determine the suitability of each crop across this region. This will be achieved by quantitatively and qualitatively looking at the climate conditions require ...
Spatial/Temporal Distribution of Rainfall and the Dynamic Factors Associated over African Great Lakes Region from 1981 to 2016
Based on Global Precipitation Climatology center (GPCC) precipitation data and Era-Interim Zonal and Meridional wind, relative humidity, Sea Level Pressure and Sea surface temperature data from ECMWF, Statistical methods were conducted to find out the interannual variability of rainfall and its dynamic factors in AGLR from 1981 to 2016. The results show that there are two (long and short) rainfall seasons over AGLR, MAM and OND respectively. The empirical orthogonal function was used to reveal through the dominant principal components (PC1) of the first EOF, the extreme years (wet and dry) for ...
The comparison of SWH from ocean wave spectra and nadir beam of SWIM
The surface wave investigation and monitoring (SWIM) will be one of the two payload instruments carried by China France Oceanography Satellite (CFOSAT) with a planned launch date in mid-2018. SWIM has six beams rotating around the vertical axis at incidence angles 0,2,4,6,8,10 degree. With nadir-beam, the SWH and wind speed can be detected as the same principle as an altimeter. At the same time, the ocean wave spectrum beams can also Catch the significant wave height (SWH). To find which SWH is more stable and accurate, first, the thesis presents an overview of SWH detection from a satellite. ...
Гидродинамический прогноза погоды на территории Гвинеи
Agriculture is the largest employer in the world and is probably the most dependent on the climate of all human activities. In recent years there have been events that have put in evidence the vulnerability of global food security to major meteorological phenomena, both in global agricultural markets and the world economy. The food price crisis and the subsequent economic crisis reduced the purchasing power of large segments of the population in many developing countries, which seriously reduced their access to food and thus undermined their food security. During the years 2009 and 2010 in Ven ...
Analysis inter decadal of climate variability facing projections of the CMIP5 models and its involvement in the agricultural production of Venezuela
Agriculture is the largest employer in the world and is probably the most dependent on the climate of all human activities. In recent years there have been events that have put in evidence the vulnerability of global food security to major meteorological phenomena, both in global agricultural markets and the world economy. The food price crisis and the subsequent economic crisis reduced the purchasing power of large segments of the population in many developing countries, which seriously reduced their access to food and thus undermined their food security. During the years 2009 and 2010 in Ven ...
Change of diurnal precipitation in different phases of Bsiso
As we know tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) was described as 2 modes such as Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) during boreal summer and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dominates during boreal winter. In summer time, Thailand where located at the coastal region at the Equator which is effected by BSISO. Some week there is strong diurnal cycle but some week is opposite. The purpose of this work is to study the evolution of BSISO and to study the change of diurnal precipitation in different phases of BSISO. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 3B42 data on 0.25 ...
Climate change effect on wheat production over Ethiopia by model simulation and prediction
Climate is one of the key factors that affect agriculture. Climate change and climate variability have been observed, typically shown as global warming due to the increased greenhouse gases. The change in climate is even predicted to be rapped and sharp in recent future and the impacts of extreme climate condition associated with climate change will be high on agriculture. Studying the impacts of climate change, especially the effects of temperature and precipitation on agriculture, is important for food safety, agricultural management, and sustainable development.
Diagnosis of floods/drought and their associated circulation anomaly over Malawi
Floods and droughts are one of extreme weather climatic events that result in loss of life and property in Malawi. However, a well detailed knowledge of understanding of previous extreme climatic events and their associated impacts can be a precautionary in reducing their impacts, as it will help to project future events timely. Therefore this paper presents an analysis of Dec-Feb seasonal flood/drought events and their associated circulation anomalies over Malawi. The DJF seasonal flood/drought was studied using monthly data from 9 selected stations for the period of 1978-2010. A set of regio ...
Evaluation of subseasonal prediction of extreme rainfall events and their relationship with the Madden Julian Oscillation over the Solomon Islands
The conference provides an opportunity for students especially PhD students to present their work and get feedback from other professionals. Not only that but the it also offers an excellent chance for networking among aspiring scientists and the possibility for future collaborations.
Study of interannual variability of October-December rainfall season over Djibouti
Rainfall is a very important weather and climate parameter that affects social and economic activities in Djibouti. This leads to droughts, floods and humanitarian disasters over the country. The rainfall climatology of the country has some changes which need to be taken into account while planning for economic activities such as civil and structural engineering. The whole country receives significant rains in the months of (October – December) and (March – April) as known except for the southern parts of the country. The southern part of the country gets its rains in the months of (June to Au ...
Les systèmes convectifs pendant la mousson en région tropicale : Mémoire de fin d’étude pour l’obtention du diplôme de technicien supérieur de la météorologie
Dans ce travail nous avons voulu étudier sur la zone tropicale les liens entre les systèmes convectifs et la pluie. L’algorithme TOOCAN introduit a pour but d’améliorer la caractérisation de l’évolution du bouclier nuageux associe aux systèmes convectifs au cours de leur cycle de vie. Des composites des structures précipitantes au cours du cycle de vie du système nuageux organise sont alors construits en fusionnant les données des satellites géostationnaires avec des estimations de précipitations issues des mesures micro-ondes à bord des satellites défilant. L’objectif de ce travail est non se ...
Aerosol Measurement by Raman Lidar
This paper examines the aerosol extinction coefficient profiles measured by Rayleigh-Raman-Mie-Lidar (RRML) system in Nanjing, China. I introduced two lidars methods (Raman and Fernald) and detection principle, and two lidars data Using Raman analysis method and Fernald analysis method to obtained aerosol extinction coefficient. Aerosol profiles at 607 nm and 532 nm over ranges from 6 km to 10 km were obtained using respectively Raman lidar and Rayleigh lidar in Nanjing.
Analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and sunphotometer measurements
Aerosols are small, micrometer-sized particles, whose optical effects coupled with their impact on cloud properties is a source of large uncertainty in climate models. Aerosols when inhaled are believed to have significant and detrimental effects on human health. Their presence also affects photosynthesis and agricultural production. Aerosol measurements are urgently required for the complete understanding and modeling their role in the climate system. This study builds on the analysis of Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) using Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and sun photometer measurements then ...
Diagnosis Of Extreme Rainfall And Temperature Event Over Rwanda (1961-2010)
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Seas ...
Drought Assessment Using SPEI and NDVI : Case of Lesotho
While drought conditions are generally a common and recurring phenomenon of the climate in Southern Africa especially Lesotho, the frequency of droughts in Lesotho has increased significantly over the past few years. Lesotho has suffered the devastating impacts of drought during the past several decades resulting in poor harvests and large livestock losses to rural farmers. The majority of the population in Lesotho engages with rain- fed agriculture and is dependent to some degree on own production for household food supply and/or cash income (Dejene, Midgley, & Marake, 2011). Any negative cha ...
Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...
Inter annual summer rainfall variability over Zimbabwe and its possible mechanism
The variability and predictability of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe at inter-annual time scale is studied. Dry and wet seasons are identified using Zimbabwe Standardized Rainfall Index (ZRI). Seasonal rainfall and circulation patterns are investigated at inter annual time scale. The study focuses on the temporal and spatial variation of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe and tries to explain the circulation mechanisms associated with such phenomenon.
Interannual variation monthly rainfall from May to August associated with large-scale circulation anomalies over south coast of West Africa
The southern coastal region of West Africa (SCWA) is located between 40N-80N latitudes and 100W -50E longitudes near the equator in the northern Hemisphere, the south and west are respectively equatorial and West Atlantic Ocean, and it is consisted to seven countries (Sierra Leon, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria). The rainy season starts from spring to the summer, mainly from May to October. The rainfall is very important for southern coastal of West Africa region which their economy and food supply are highly dependent on agricultural production. Understanding of previo ...
Investigating the variation of intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics in Sierra Leone
The rainy season in Sierra Leone is unimodal from April to October; an understanding of the inter-annual variability of rainfall in Sierra Leone is of importance to economic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, infrastructure, hydro-electric power generation (HEP) and water resources. This study investigated the variation of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics in Sierra Leone. Daily rainfall data from 4 synoptic stations was obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Department from 1990-2014.
Projection of Future Streamflow Changes in the Pearl River Basin
Global climate change is remarkably changing the climatic patterns of the Pearl River basin and are significantly impacting the hydrological processes. Projection of future climate change impacts on steamflow variation is potential to provide scientific guidelines for sustainable water resources management and effective prevention and control for flood and drought disasters. In this study, a hydrological modeling system for assessing climate change impacts on runoffin the Pearl River basin was established and were used to simulate historical hydrological process and to project future streamflo ...
Rainfall Variability over Zimbabwe and its relation to large-scale atmosphere-ocean processes
Mamombe Vimbai - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016For Zimbabwe, where rain fed agriculture is the backbone of the economy, the importance of accurate rainfall seasonal forecasts cannot be overemphasized (Makarau and Jury, 1997). In fact, extremes in interseasonal variability of rainfall can significantly complicate human livelihoods. In addition, there have been predictions of increased precipitation variability and hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall due to global warming (Field et al., 2014; Mushore, 2013a). Thus, detailed understanding of the major contributors to the rainfall variability over Zimbab ...
The Sahel Drought Mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. A ...
Spatial-temporal analysis and variability of meteorological drought during pre and south west monsoon period in Myanmar
The current study is an attempt to assess meteorological drought in Myanmar during the South west pre monsoon and monsoon period using observed rainfall data from 34 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1971 to 2010. The components of drought that were analyzed in this study were severity, persistence, frequency and probability of occurrence. Additional, trends in drought occurrence were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method while the wavelet analysis was applied to PI value to identify various periodic processes.
Statistical analysis of rainfall trend and water vapor distribution over the Central African Republic
To apprehend the temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall over CAR, we computed thirty-three years (1981-2013) of monthly rainfall, relative humidity over the country divided into four (4) distinct sub-regions. Bearing different characteristics one to another, we found that Region 2 and Region 4 were having a statistical significant upward trend along the long term rainfall variation; meanwhile Region 3 was the one having a highest coefficient of variation on the yearly basis. The composite analysis showed that December, January and February were the months with higher frequency of va ...
Statistical approach towards subseasonal prediction over the Maritime Continent
Ismail Norlaila - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016
Study on the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Process Intensifying the Squall Lines over Guinea
This research investigates the dynamical and thermodynamical process of mesoscale convective system that intensifies squall lines wind speed propagation. The generation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and its lifecycle. The characteristics of squall lines (SLs) over West Africa (WA) which occurred In Guinea for two cases periods June 01-02 and June 13-14, 2015. In all six (6) AEWs have been tracked using reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). European Meteorological Satellite images (EUMETSAT) and Earth Networks WeatherBug StreamerRT were also used to ...
Variability of Benin JJAS Precipitation associated with MAM SST Anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean
Precipitations vary consistently in Benin from 1981 to 2010. The present study reveals that the variation of Benin JJAS precipitation is positively correlated to MAM Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Atlantic Ocean with correlation coefficient more than 0.7. When the SST is higher (lower) in the Atlantic Ocean, precipitation over Benin tends to be above (below) normal. The years 1988, 1989, 2003, 2007 and 2008, were wet with 1988, 2003, 2008 high SST over Tropical Southern Atlantic Ocean (STAO) while the years 1982, 1983, 1992 and 1997 formed the dry years with low SST over Tropical Southern At ...
Variability of the West African summer Monsoon and its relation to the SSTA over the Atlantic Ocean
This study investigates spatial and temporal features of the West African Summer Monsoon (WASM) and its relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA). The variability of the WASM from June to September was analyzed during the period 1960-2013, with methods including EOF analysis of the precipitation anomaly and SSTA and the associated large scale circulation pattern. The result from the first EOF-Mode of the precipitation anomaly which has the highest positive loadings over the region shows that during the summer, the precipitation anomalies are positives in the Sahel and the Sahara. ...
Assessing Agricultural Risk in Africa Using Satellite Data and Land Surface Models
Droughts pose a major risk in most African countries including Ghana where agricultural activities are heavily dependent on rainfall. Efforts at assessing droughts and providing decision support tools to farmers are hampered by a lack of rainfall and other meteorological data over many parts of Africa. Satellite based rainfall measurements have been suggested to fill the rainfall data gaps over Africa to enable effective assessment of droughts. Traditional methods of assessing droughts have been based on statistical formulations that relied mostly on precipitation. This approach to assessing d ...
Assessing the impacts of temporal resolution of precipitation forcing data on the surface energy and water balance
In urban climate research, spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is always a critical element for numerical modelling. However, the effects of temporal resolution of precipitation forcing data has received little attention. Moreover, there has always been a difference practically and theoretically in the availability of precipitation data. This study was carried out to assess the impact of temporal resolution of precipitation forcing data on the modelled surface energy and water balance using available data from a site at the Strand campus of Kings College London. Analysis has been ...
Instability Indices and Heavy Rainfall Forecast in a Maritime Environment
Forecasting heavy rainfall associated with in-situ convective cloud development over small island states is a challenge in operational forecasting as not all numerical models are able to resolve convection at such small scales. Forecasting of such phenomena is mainly based on prevailing local conditions and the use of a plethora of thermodynamic indices derived from the local sounding. This study is an effort to assess the suitability of the different available indices, hereafter referred as traditional indices, to forecast heavy rainfall from local convection, commonly known as pure sea breez ...
Investigating apparent aerosol effects on precipitation in climate model simulations
Aerosols in the atmosphere serve as condensation nuclei for the cloud formation. This brings an important influence on the microphysical properties of cloud water that in turn affect the processes in the formation of precipitation. Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction which simultaneously change cloud albedo interest many studies to find out aerosol impact on precipitation formation. The studies were done by observation measurement and simulation. UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) is one model that includes aerosol direct and indirect effect in the NWP configuration which leads to study aero ...
Rainfall characteristics over Togo and their related atomospheric circulation anomalies: In Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences, 5:34-48
This study attempts to reveal features of rainfall over Togo, in relationship to the
prevailing atmospheric circulation. The study employed correlation analysis and composite analysis in
the analysis of rainfall, sea surface temperature, wind, and humidity. Empirical orthogonal functions
(EOF) analysis was employed in this study. The years: 1989, 1991, 1995, 2003 and 2007 were
identified to be anomalously wet years while 1982, 1983, 1990, 1992, 2001 and 2006 fall in the
anomalously dry years’ category. The dominant mode of variability exhibits a dipole patter ...
The impacts of fog and thunderstorms on aircraft operations : a case study of Wilson Airport Nairobi Kenya
Abongnwi Ngwa Lumfuh - 2014Adverse weather is the main cause of the alterations to operations at Wilson airport. At Wilson airport, occurrence of fog and low ceiling, cross winds, thunderstorm and heavy rainfall are considered the main causes of adverse weather hampering the aircraft operations. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of fog and thunderstorm on aircraft operations at Wilson airport. The impact is measured in terms of delay, diversion, cancelation and economic value of these actions. The data on fog and thunderstorm data was obtained from Kenya Meteorological Service (Climatological secti ...
Report of the three months Attachment at the European Centre for Medium-Range
The attachment took place at the ECMWF headquarters in Reading, United Kingdom from 29th April-30th July 2013. The program was sponsored by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
Assessment of prone areas to heavy rainfall in Tanzania and its associate circulation anomalies during march-may rainfall season
Mafuru Kantamla Biseke - College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 2013Tanzania is one among the most other sub-Sahara African countries where Agriculture production is strongly depending on rainfall, a key factor which determine the livelihood of 70% of the total population. An adequate amount of rainfall per season reasonably help the farmer to accomplish his/her goal in a positive way, while an excessive amount of rainfall impacts on both people’s livelihood and agricultural production leading into reduction in manpower and nation’s GDP. In recent years, Tanzania suffered a successive scenario of heavy rainfall over different areas of the country, the majority ...
Comparison of different rainfall inputs in a continuous rainfall-runoff model – a case study for Argentina
Buzzella Maria Mercedes; Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology and Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering - Leibniz Universität, 2013Precipitation data is the main input parameter in order to simulate rainfall-runoff processes, since it is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the spatial and temporal representation of the precipitation. In regions where rainfall stations are scarce, additional data sources may be considered necessary. In this manner, remote sensing from satellite platforms has provided a satisfactory alternative due to its global coverage. Although a wide range of satellite-based estimations of precipitation is available, not all the satellite products are suitable for all regions. Most of the studies perf ...
Rainfall and temperature characteristic over Zambia
Temperature and rainfall are important elements of climate Zambia where several sectors of the economy depend mostly on water resources. Zambia normally receives the bulk of its annual rainfall from November to March (NDJFM) as the ITCZ moves south and experience high temperatures. The major objective of the study was to investigate the rainfall and temperature characteristic over Zambia.
WMO fellowships supported by the UK Voluntary Co-operation Programme - Case study : Capacity development through education and training
Weku Shilenje Zablon - The Met.Office, 2013
Analysis of heavy rainfall events over Dar es Salaam city: A necessity to lessen flood risks
Floods are a threat to many cities especially in the developing countries and cities found near the coastal areas where the population pressure, unplanned settlements and poor infrastructures are most evident. Climate change also poses a higher flood risks in these areas due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. In this study analysis of extreme rainfall over Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania was done. The analysis employed empirical as well as hydrological frequency modeling to annual maximum daily rainfall events for 5 of the meteorological stations found within the c ...
Assessment and modelling of climate variability and change in Cameroon (central Africa)
Cameroon is located on the west coast of central Africa. It is home to about twenty millions inhabitants relying upon rain‐fed agriculture for food security. With the increasing pressure of climate change, other activities for sustainable development such as transport, energy, water, livestock and urban settlement are also facing an increasing threat due to extreme climate and weather events. In some cases today’s climate extremes are expected to become tomorrow’s ‘normal’ weather. This assumption stresses the need of understanding the past, the current and hopefully to project local climate b ...
Bivariate analysis and synthesis of flood events for the design of hydraulic structures – a case study for Argentina
A bibliographic review of the state of art of flood estimation techniques shows the importance of studying floods as multivariate events. The aim of this work is to discuss whether a multivariate analysis is necessary for designing dams or for assessing the adequacy of spillways belonging to existing dams. A multivariate approach offers a range of possible events associated to a joint return period, which can be used in a design stage. The multivariate criterion includes information related with the dependence structure linking the flood variables. This dependence is involved in the generation ...
Capturing Recent Climate Variations in the Extreme Southern Caribbean with Projections for the Near and Medium Terms: A Downscaling Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
To mitigate adverse effects of future extremes in climate in the extreme southern Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago require a sound understanding of the science of the climate, along with realistic and region specific projection outputs; in order that an effective response can be provided by respective regions. As a step towards achieving this, downscaling GCM outputs through RCMs is useful at the local and regional scales because it can provide finer detailed and more user friendly output required for planning. Moreover, it is an avenue through which more profound understanding of the ...
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Burundi
“The dominant pattern of Burundi rainfall is the seasonal move of the dominant Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the Congo air mass and the interconnection with EL Nino/Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Much of Burundi experiences a bimodal seasonal distribution of rainfall with maxima occurring in the March- April and November. The Interannual variability of rainfall in Burundi shows interesting association with atmospheric and oceanic phenomena. We investigate the variability of rainfall using OND (October, November, December) and MAM (March, April, May) precipitation in Burundi du ...
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Egypt
Apart from the northern coast, most of Egypt is desert. However, the northern coastal region experiences some precipitation mainly during winter. We investigate the variability of wintertime (December, January and February) precipitation in North Egypt during the 30-yr interval 1976-2005 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and subtropical jet stream.
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Uganda
Uganda is located between latitudes 1.5 0 S to 4.5 0 N and longitudes 28o E to 35 0 E. It contains complex topography that includes large Lakes, Rivers, Great Rift Valley and Mountains, and supports varied wildlife of scientific and economic value. Due to its Equatorial location, this country is expected to receive abundant rainfall throughout the year. This is, however, not the case as frequent occurrences of years of insufficient rainfall for agricultural activities have been observed. Rainfall over Uganda exhibits large spatial and temporal variability. The inter-annual variability has feat ...
Climate Response over Selected Urban and Desert Areas in Northern China
Many studies carried out have shown evidence of regional temperature and precipitation variability along with global climate changes. A key issue is whether these variability follow trends that are uniform or others have increasing trends while others decreasing trend. And this study was carried out using Mann-Kendall trend test method and regression analysis method with the data observed by a total of 20stations to investigate the trends of temperature and precipitation in northern China. 10stations were selected from urban areas (section 1.4.2: table 1.1) and another 10stations were selected ...
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