Global Campus
The WMO Global Campus E-Library
The WMO Global Campus initiative is proud to offer this WMOLearn Library of resources. This library provides a searchable collection of educational resources, including WMO publications and education and training materials from various contributing organisations and individuals. Search by WMO competency framework, Main Topics, Region and Country, and/or Nature of Information to find materials useful for training or self-directed learning.
WMO Global Campus resources provided on this Site are provided “as is”, without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement. The WMO specifically does not make any warranties or representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any such resources.
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Browse by competencies



Satellite Feature Identification: Blocking Patterns
Satellite Feature Identification: Blocking Patterns examines how water vapor imagery can be used to help diagnose blocking patterns and their dissipation. Four major blocking patterns are covered in this module: Blocking highs, Cut-off lows, Rex blocks and Omega blocks. This module is part of the series: "Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette".
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=535
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2009
Satellite Feature Identification: Blocking Patterns examines how water vapor imagery can be used to help diagnose blocking patterns and their dissipation. Four major blocking patterns are covered in this module: Blocking highs, Cut-off lows, Rex blocks and Omega blocks. This module is part of the series: "Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette".
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Weather forecasting ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Satellite Skills and Knowledge for Operational Meteorologists
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Real-time Storm Surge Products
This lesson will describe the real-time storm surge products that are issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) during a significant tropical cyclone event along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. Tropical cyclones that threaten a coastline have the potential to inflict devastating damage to communities. Real-time storm surge information will assist decision-makers in their plans and preparation work for these events. Basic familiarity with probabilistic forecast guidance is required. It is recommended that us ...
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=1221
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2016
This lesson will describe the real-time storm surge products that are issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) during a significant tropical cyclone event along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. Tropical cyclones that threaten a coastline have the potential to inflict devastating damage to communities. Real-time storm surge information will assist decision-makers in their plans and preparation work for these events. Basic familiarity with probabilistic forecast guidance is required. It is recommended that users review the "Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge" lesson on MetEd before viewing this lesson. This online lesson is part of the Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge: Forecasting and Communication course.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Storm surge ; Lesson/ Tutorial
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Tropical Fog: A Look at Fog That Impacts Aviation in Guyana
This module applies concepts covered in the module, Fog: Its Processes and Impacts to Aviation. It examines the fog processes at a tropical location: Guyana. A basic overview of the main fog types is provided, and then a detailed analysis is done for a representative fog event at the Cheddi Jagan International Airport in Guyana. Conclusions are made about fog processes in Guyana which can then be applied to forecasting for aviation impacts.
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=1007
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2013
This module applies concepts covered in the module, Fog: Its Processes and Impacts to Aviation. It examines the fog processes at a tropical location: Guyana. A basic overview of the main fog types is provided, and then a detailed analysis is done for a representative fog event at the Cheddi Jagan International Airport in Guyana. Conclusions are made about fog processes in Guyana which can then be applied to forecasting for aviation impacts.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Weather forecasting ; Fog ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Aviation ; Caribbean ; Guyana ; Satellite Skills and Knowledge for Operational Meteorologists
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WMO Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR)/Space
OSCAR/Space, the “satellite” component of the WMO OSCAR resource, contains updated quality-controlled information on past, present and future satellite missions, instruments and related characteristics, covering a period from 1960 up to 2050, which adds up to 500+ satellites and 800+ instruments dedicated to Earth Observation and Space Weather. In addition, OSCAR/Space provides expert assessments of the applicability of the various instruments for particular measurements. This resource can be used as a reference for studies, as a gap analysis tool, as support for planning, and for educational ...
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=1182
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2015
OSCAR/Space, the “satellite” component of the WMO OSCAR resource, contains updated quality-controlled information on past, present and future satellite missions, instruments and related characteristics, covering a period from 1960 up to 2050, which adds up to 500+ satellites and 800+ instruments dedicated to Earth Observation and Space Weather. In addition, OSCAR/Space provides expert assessments of the applicability of the various instruments for particular measurements. This resource can be used as a reference for studies, as a gap analysis tool, as support for planning, and for educational purposes. OSCAR assessments are primarily based on instrument design features. Other important criteria such as actual instrument operational status, calibration, actual data availability, should be kept in mind when using OSCAR outputs for a gap analysis. This resource is made available courtesy of the World Meteorological Organization Space Programme and is not produced, owned or hosted by UCAR/COMET.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Weather forecasting ; User requirement ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Satellite Skills and Knowledge for Operational Meteorologists
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Rip Currents: Nearshore Fundamentals
This module provides insight into how nearshore circulation and wave dynamics are involved in rip current formation. Topics covered in this module include: nearshore terminology, circulation and waves, rip current characteristics, and rip current forcing mechanisms. This module is the second of three modules covering the forecasting of rip currents.
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=160
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2004
This module provides insight into how nearshore circulation and wave dynamics are involved in rip current formation. Topics covered in this module include: nearshore terminology, circulation and waves, rip current characteristics, and rip current forcing mechanisms. This module is the second of three modules covering the forecasting of rip currents.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Marine meteorology ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Marine Weather Forecasters
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Stability, Smoke Management, and Fire Weather Forecasting
The “Stability, Smoke Management, and Fire Weather Forecasting” module examines the effects of atmospheric stability on fire behavior and the transport of smoke, as well as fire and smoke management operations. Topics covered include the impacts of the formation, persistence, and dissipation of inversions and how best to relate forecast information on these phases to customers. Calculation and application of the Haines Index is applied through the highly interactive Haines Game. In addition, the influence of stability on the transport and dispersion of fire related smoke is covered in the cont ...Permalink![]()
Nighttime Radiation and Cooling of the Lower Atmosphere
It is our common experience to observe that the lowest levels of the atmosphere cool down more slowly on humid nights than on dry nights. When the sky is cloudy we observe the atmosphere to cool even more slowly. Can longwave radiation fluxes alone explain these observations? This learning object uses a simple interactive model to demonstrate the role of radiation in nighttime cooling. As a learning object, it is meant to supplement other teaching material in a course by elucidating a specific concept. By adjusting the emissivity and temperature of earth and atmospheric layers, the student can ...Permalink![]()
Dynamically Forced Fog
Fog frequently forms in response to dynamically forced changes in the boundary layer. This module examines dynamically forced fog in the coastal and marine environment, focusing on advection fog, steam fog, and west coast type fog. The focus of the module is on the boundary layer evolution of air parcels as they traverse trajectories over land and water. The module also examines mesoscale effects that impact the distribution of fog and low-level stratus over short distances. A general discussion of forecast products and methodologies concludes the module.Permalink![]()
GOES-R Series Faculty Virtual Course: Tropical Cyclones
In this webinar recording, Andrea Schumacher demonstrates the GOES-R series' new capabilities for real-time tropical cyclone analysis and monitoring, which will contribute significantly to improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts. The GOES-16 imager will provide dramatic new views of tropical cyclone phenomena, offering vastly improved time and spatial resolution as well as color composite images to enhance cloud bands and other features. This webinar will also explore the role of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in helping identify areas of strong thunderstorms associated with ...Permalink![]()
Dust Enhancement Techniques Using MODIS and SeaWiFS
The Dust Enhancement Techniques Using MODIS and SeaWiFS Webcast features Dr. Steven Miller of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Monterey, California and takes about one hour to complete. Dr. Miller explains two techniques for detecting blowing dust using multispectral satellite imagery from the MODIS and SeaWiFS instruments. He also provides guidelines for the best uses of these techniques. The Webcast includes several recent operational examples from southwest Asia. This presentation was originally given at a workshop hosted by NRL in April, 2003.Permalink![]()
Primary Influences on Water Temperature for Inland Streams
This lesson explores the primary influences, or drivers, on water temperature of inland streams and rivers. We use a simulated flight, or flyover, where we look down at the features of the South Boise River in Idaho. An unregulated as well as a regulated reach of the river are explored (above and below the Anderson Ranch Reservoir), with a look at cross sections of the river and its environment at key locations during the flyover. We explore how environmental factors (climate, geography, stream morphology) impact water temperatures. Then, after defining the factors that affect water temperatur ...Permalink![]()
Wave Types and Characteristics
This is the first in a series of new marine meteorology modules based on COMET’s old laser disk and CD-ROM modules on marine meteorology. This module is an introduction to waves and their associated characteristics. Several types of waves are presented, from the common wind wave to the rare tsunami wave. The basic physical, mathematical, and statistical traits of waves are discussed, along with how they change once waves become swell. This material serves as a building block to subsequent modules on wave generation, propagation, and dispersion.Permalink![]()
Tsunami Strike! Caribbean Edition
Tsunami Strike! Caribbean Edition offers an interactive learning experience in which learners take on the role of a journalist writing an article for a news magazine. Sixteen multimedia lessons on tsunami science, safety, and history are interwoven within the learning scenario as resources for the article. The material is aimed at middle school and high school students (ages 13-17) but will be useful to a broader audience wishing to learn more about tsunamis in general, and in particular about tsunami risks in the Caribbean.Permalink![]()
Seasonal Forecast Problems Refresher Training
This prototype module was originally intended as a review of seasonal weather regimes and hazards for regions that are of particular interest to the Air Force Weather Agency. Although the project was discontinued, the section on summer weather in the southeast U.S. is available as an forecaster's training aid and as an example of this type of training.Permalink![]()
Tsunami Strike! Pacific Edition
Tsunami Strike! Pacific Edition is a scenario-based learning experience for kids from middle school through high school (approximate ages 13-17). The scenario tells the story of four main characters at different locations in the Pacific basin who are each impacted by a major tsunami that originates in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Over the course of the story, learners not only view the unfolding events and how each of the characters responds, but also observe how warning scientists analyze and communicate the tsunami threat. Fourteen short lessons provide interactive instruction focused on the s ...Permalink![]()
Space Weather Basics, 2nd Edition
This lesson presents an overview of space weather processes, their impacts on Earth and human activities, and the technologies used for forecasting space weather events. The lesson goal is to provide NWS forecasters a basic understanding of space weather and the operations of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). It will be of interest to a general audience as well.Permalink![]()
NWP Essentials: NWP and Forecasting
This lesson introduces forecasters to the complex and multifaceted process for creating a forecast. It also discusses how NWP fits into that process. In addition, the lesson provides a broad overview of the basic components of NWP and how they combine to produce a model forecast.Permalink![]()
Topics in Lake Effect Snow Forecasting
Lake and ocean effect processes can have a significant impact on snowfall amounts in many parts of North America, and can be very tricky to forecast. This short module is a collection of narrated reference material on many aspects of lake effect snow forecasting. It is divided into three main topics: Basic Ingredients of Lake/Ocean Snow, Banding Processes, and Satellite Detection. These materials are also available as the separate Supporting Topics within the case exercise module, Ocean Effect Snow: New England Snow Storm, 14 January 1999: http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snow/ocean_effect_case/.Permalink![]()
Storm Surge and Datums
This lesson introduces forecasters to the orthometric and tidal datums used to describe tropical cyclone storm surge measurements and forecasts. It provides a general overview of how to interpret storm surge forecasts using various vertical datums. This online lesson is part of the Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge: Forecasting and Communication course.Permalink![]()
Satellite Feature Identification: Ring of Fire
Satellite Feature Identification: Ring of Fire introduces forecasters to the potentially damaging convection that can develop in conjunction with blocking high pressure centers and examines how to identify it from a water vapor imagery perspective. This module is part of the series "Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette".Permalink![]()
Using Climatological Products in Common Operations
This module answers the question, "How can climate data and products from the U.S. Air Force’s climate division (the 14th Weather Squadron) assist Department of Defense (DoD) forecasters in preparing for assignments to new locations and handling requests for specific information?" The 14th Weather Squadron is the DoD’s largest source of climatological data and analysis products and offers a standard suite of climate analysis products that are available both as preformatted text and graphics and, increasingly, as customizable products with user-defined variables. This module teaches forecasters ...Permalink![]()
Skywarn Spotter Convective Basics
The "SKYWARN® Spotter Convective Basics" module will guide users to a basic understanding of convective storms. Through three different scenarios, you will cover reporting and proper communication of local storm reports to the National Weather Service (NWS), personal safety during these events, and field identification of convective storm hazards. After completing the scenarios, you will be given the opportunity to practice identifying storm features from a spectrum of photos.Permalink![]()
Topics in Dynamic Meteorology: Pressure Gradient Force
This module is a learning object on a foundational aspect of dynamic meteorology, the pressure gradient force. As a learning object, it is meant to supplement other teaching material in a course by elucidating a specific concept. The horizontal pressure gradient force is presented through an interactive tool which allows a student to adjust pressures on an idealized surface map and examine the horizontal accelerations produced in response. Three short exercises are provided to reinforce the concepts.Permalink![]()
NWP Essentials: Structure and Dynamics
This lesson is focused on how a model forecast and the interpretation of that forecast, is affected by the basic design of the model. Topics include how meteorological variables are represented in grid point and spectral models, fundamental differences between hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic models, horizontal resolution of orographic and free-atmosphere features, vertical coordinate systems and how they affect the vertical resolution of features in the model forecast.Permalink![]()
S-290 Introduction
The purpose of this unit is to introduce the online version of the Intermediate Wildland Fire Behavior, S-290 course. The unit discusses the overall course objectives, the content covered in the twelve units comprising this course, course navigation, and the contributors to this effort.Permalink![]()
BoM Aviation Fog Case Exercise
This case exercise focuses on a potential fog event in Melbourne, Australia, on 6-7 April 2008. The key aim of this module is to step through the forecast process during a potential fog event from the perspective of an aviation forecaster with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. This involves consideration of model guidance and observations, identification of potential areas of fog, forecasting and nowcasting fog formation and clearance, and considering and providing TAF updates throughout.Permalink![]()
Marine Weather Services Incident Response and Decision Support
Marine Weather Services Incident Response and Decision Support provides guidance for forecasters tasked with supporting oil or chemical spills and other marine-focused incidents. The lesson follows an example spill event to help demonstrate marine forecasters' responsibilities for coordinating with emergency managers, other NOAA line offices, and governmental agencies and outlines best practices related to effective communication.Permalink![]()
Enroute Icing
Aircraft icing has resulted in numerous accidents, some fatal. The problem is due, in part, to a lack of awareness on the part of aviation forecasters (and others) that icing is imminent. The lesson addresses this issue by presenting a process for forecasting enroute icing for aviation and applying it to a case over the Continental U.S. The process involves gaining situational awareness of potential icing areas and making a first forecast of their locations and flight levels; comparing the first forecast to NWP forecasts; and adjusting as needed. To reach a wide audience and stay current, the ...Permalink![]()
EUMeTrain's Synoptic Textbook
This 190-page text, which is based on a series of university lectures, provides comprehensive information on synoptic meteorology. There's a general introduction to synoptics followed by chapters on tropospheric circulation, air masses, boundary layer and weather, wind fields, jet streams, vertical motions, high and low pressure, convective systems, numerical parameters in vertical cross sections, mid-latitude cyclones, the tropopause, and fronts. A number of the examples in the textbook are from Northern Europe. This resource is made available courtesy of EUMeTrain and is not produced, owned ...Permalink![]()
Dam Failure Concepts and Modeling
This lesson provides an in-depth case study to illustrate principles of dam failure modeling and examines some of the critical data inputs and outputs. Output is provided from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS model for simulated failures of a large dam. Several simulations are presented that show the impact from varying the size of the breach and the time it takes the breach to fully develop. The lesson also summarizes several infamous large dam failures from around the world and the impacts from other factors are such as reservoir shape and size, the age of the dam, and the material u ...Permalink![]()
Introduction to Ocean Currents
This module discusses the origin of ocean currents in both the open ocean and in coastal areas. The module focuses on the driving mechanisms for currents, along with influences that modify existing currents. Driving mechanisms include wind, horizontal density differences, and tides, while modifying effects include friction, bathymetry, and the Ekman spiral. The module concludes with a demonstration of data products and a brief overview of forecast considerations.Permalink![]()
Determining the Onset and Risk of Tropical Cyclone Winds
This lesson introduces forecasters to the probabilistic guidance products used by the National Hurricane Center to assess tropical cyclone wind threats. It provides an overview of how these probabilistic wind speed products are created, their purposes, and how to interpret them. The lesson also provides practice in determining the total risk and timing for location-specific peak wind events. This online lesson is part of the Tropical Cyclone Storm Winds: Forecasting and Communication course.Permalink![]()
Blowing Snow: Baker Lake, Nunavut, Canada 04-10 February 2003
This case exercise takes an in-depth look at a blowing snow event in the northern mainland of Canada. The case addresses specific low-level wind and snow conditions. Model data, satellite imagery, and observations are provided for assessing the potential for blowing snow and blizzard conditions as the event unfolds.Permalink![]()
Volcanic Ash: Observation Tools and Dispersion Models
This module is the fourth and final entry in the Volcanic Ash series. It covers the tools and techniques used for identifying and forecasting the transport of volcanic ash. Satellite and radar imagery are combined with observations and numerical model output to first identify the presence of volcanic ash and then to help forecast the transport of ash at various levels of the atmosphere.Permalink![]()
Creating a Local Climate Product Using Composite Analysis
This Webcast features Heather Hauser of NOAA/ERH/SSD describing the utility of and introducing the methodology for conducting composite analysis as part of the NWS Climate Services program. This 30-minute presentation is intended to introduce climate focal points to the composite analysis process and will be a useful prerequisite to attending the Operational Climate Services residence courses, where the topic will be explored further. Composite analysis is the foundation of a forthcoming local climate-related product, the "3 Month Outlook of Local El Nino/La Nina Impacts."Permalink![]()
Conceptual Models of Tropical Waves
Tropical waves are prolific rainfall producers that sometimes form tropical cyclones. Conceptual models of tropical waves are used to help learners understand the dynamical characteristics and evolution of tropical waves. Users will learn about the vertical and horizontal structure of tropical waves and the typical weather changes that accompany the passage of a tropical wave. Four different methods of tracking tropical waves are also provided. The Webcast is presented by Mr. Horace Burton and Mr. Selvin Burton of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology under the auspices of the ...Permalink![]()
Remote Sensing of Ocean Wind Speed and Direction: An Introduction to Scatterometry
This Webcast features Dr. Michael Freilich (Oregon State University, principal investigator on the QuikSCAT project for NSF) introducing and discussing the fundamentals of scatterometry and how they apply to the SeaWinds instrument on QuikSCAT. Dr. Freilich also describes how the model function is used to derive wind speed and direction from multiple collocated measurements.Permalink![]()
S-290 Unit 6: Atmospheric Stability
S-290 Unit 6: Atmospheric Stability introduces the processes related to stable and unstable atmospheric conditions and explains their impact on fire behavior. This Unit provides detailed information about how fire behavior is affected by stable and unstable atmospheric phenomena such as inversions and thunderstorms. The Unit also explains cloud formation and describes the usage of clouds and other visual indicators to recognize stable and unstable atmospheric conditions. The module is part of the Intermediate Wildland Fire Behavior Course "http://www.meted.ucar.edu/dl_courses/S290".Permalink![]()
Climatology for the Operational Forecaster
Climate information can be used as guidance for a range of weather-dependent operations. This module summarizes the Climate Analysis Process, a series of steps for determining which climatological products and data will be most useful for a specified application. The Climate Analysis Process is followed in the context of preparing a climatological brief for a ship deployment across multiple ocean basins. Though the focus is on Department of Defense data sources, including the Advanced Climate Analysis and Forecasting (ACAF) system, information on other sources is also provided. Products from t ...Permalink![]()
Forecasters' Overview of the Mediterranean and Europe
This module provides an introduction to the European continent and the Mediterranean and Black Sea areas for weather forecasters. It focuses on geography, climatology, oceanography, major aspects of the synoptic and mesoscale weather patterns, and hazards to aviation and maritime operations. Geography covers major political boundaries, cities, ports, topographical features, rivers, and volcanic areas. Climatology covers the seasonal climatology of jet stream, synoptic weather systems, extratropical cyclones, and high winds and seas. Oceanography includes major bathymetric features; mean sea su ...Permalink![]()
The Madden-Julian Oscillation Life Cycle
This Webcast, is an expert lecture by Dr. Roland Madden, where he describes the important climate-moderating feature, the Madden-Julian oscillation which is known more commonly as the MJO. The Webcast is presented in five sections and covers the identification and variability of the MJO. He also introduces some of the many global weather impacts that are associated with MJO occurrences. A forecaster who attended the original classroom presentation had the following to say…“This [lecture] was really the best yet! And hearing it from the "father" of the MJO made it so much better. It was so easy ...Permalink![]()
Coastally Trapped Wind Reversals
This module starts with a forecast scenario that occurs along the California coast. The module then proceeds to describe the structure and climatology of these disturbances, as well as their synoptic and mesoscale evolution. The instruction concludes with a section on forecasting coastally trapped wind reversals. The module also includes a concise summary for quick reference and a final exam to test your knowledge. Like other modules in the Mesoscale Meteorology Primer, this module comes with audio narration, rich graphics, and a companion print version.Permalink![]()
Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs
This lesson provides a basic understanding of how to plot and interpret hodographs, with application to convective environments. Most of the material previously appeared in the CD lesson, Anticipating Convective Storm Structure and Evolution, developed with Dr. Morris Weisman. Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs includes a concise summary for quick reference and a final exam to test your knowledge. The lesson comes with audio narration, rich graphics, and a companion print version.Permalink![]()
Polar Lows Ungava Bay 01 December 2000
Polar lows are generally short-lived but intense events that occur over cold ocean waters, poleward of a baroclinic zone. The polar low in this case formed over the open waters of Ungava Bay, in northeastern Canada, on 2 December 2000. The case is presented as a series of challenging forecast questions followed by a more traditional case study presentation. Included in this exercise is a rich set of data products and access to background materials on polar low forecasting.Permalink![]()
River Ice Processes
The “River Ice Processes” module provides information on flooding associated with river ice jams. In this webcast, Dr. Kate White, nationally-recognized expert on river ice, explores basic river ice processes including the formation, growth, breakup, and transport of river ice and how it can become jammed, triggering floods. In addition, Dr. White covers the current, state-of-the-art ice jam forecasting, and current ice-modeling research and development being conducted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. As a foundation topic for the Basic Hydrologic Science course, this module may be taken o ...Permalink![]()
Topics in Tropical Meteorology
This module brings together six short lessons about significant atmospheric and oceanic influences on tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Ocean. Topics treated include the African Easterly Jet, the Loop Current, the Meridional Overturning Circulation, ocean heat content, the Saharan Air Layer, and the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, or TUTT.Permalink![]()
An Introduction to the EUMETSAT Polar System
This Webcast provides an overview of the EUMETSAT Polar System (EPS), Europe's first dedicated operational polar-orbiting weather satellite program. EPS contributes to the Initial Joint Polar System (IJPS) under a cooperation agreement between EUMETSAT and NOAA to provide and improve operational meteorological and environmental forecasting and global climate monitoring services worldwide. The highly innovative features implemented with EPS include high-level sounding performance and enhanced data streams that further improve the capabilities of advanced NWP systems. The Webcast takes one hour ...Permalink![]()
Mesoscale Model Components of the National Blend of Models Version 3.0
The National Weather Service National Blend of Models (NBM) was updated to version 3.0 on 27 July 2017. Changes include: Eight new components for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska, including four deterministic models, two ensemble systems, and two post-processed statistical components Five new components for Hawaii and Puerto Rico Expanded forecast domains for the CONUS and Alaska A “Time of Day” (ToD), rather than NWP model, initial time concept Hourly NBM forecasts, with short, day 2-4, and extended forecasts Updated NBM guidance available 50-60 minutes after hourly run time New weather ...Permalink![]()
Canadian EPV Charts
The goal of the EPV chart is to aid operational forecasters in predicting CSI and slantwise convection. The description includes links to the online chart, which is updated twice daily by the CMC, as well as a list of synoptic considerations that will support your use of the EPV chart in identifying regions favorable for CSI and slantwise convection.Permalink![]()
Remote Sensing Using Satellites, 2nd Edition
The second edition of the popular "Remote Sensing Using Satellites" module updates imagery of recent hurricanes as well as other phenomena from more recent satellites. The suggested audience for this module is high school and undergraduate students. Learn about remote sensing in general and then more specifically about how it is done from satellites. We will focus on the visible and infrared channels, those commonly seen on television broadcasts. Come explore the view of Earth from space and see what we see. In the second chapter, we will focus even more on hurricanes and specifically Hurrican ...Permalink![]()
Gridded Products in the NWS National Blend of Global Models
This lesson introduces users to the five different guidance products that will be included in Version 1.0 of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of global Models (NBM). The primary audience for this lesson includes forecasters and users of NWS forecast products; some prior knowledge of numerical weather prediction is useful. Learners will explore how model guidance from the Global Forecast System, Global Ensemble Forecast System, Canadian Meteorological Centre Ensemble, Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics (MOS) and gridded GFS MOS is produced. The strengths and l ...Permalink![]()
Definition of the Mesoscale
By the end of this module you will be able to answer... What is the mesoscale and how do we classify it? What is hydrostatic equilibrium? Why are non-hydrostatic processes so important to mesoscale meteorology? Why does forecasting mesoscale meteorology rely on model resolution? How might mesoscale processes impact fleet operations?Permalink![]()
Arctic Meteorology and Oceanography
Diminishing sea ice has opened the Arctic to navigation and operations like never before. Forecasters are increasingly predicting weather in support of those operations. This module is intended to provide forecasters with a brief introduction to the Arctic, including its geography, climatology, and the forecast problems they are likely to encounter. The module follows a U.S. Coast Guard Cutter on a voyage from Dutch Harbor, in the Aleutian Islands, to Barrow, on the north coast of Alaska. Various topics are addressed along the way in a series of short, stand-alone lessons.Permalink![]()
Fire Model Matrix
The Fire Model Matrix is an on-line resource that presents four fire community models in a matrix that facilitates the exploration of the characteristics of each model. As part of the Advanced Fire Weather Forecasters Course, this matrix is meant to sensitize forecasters to the use of weather data in these fire models to forecast potential fire activity.Permalink![]()
ASMET 7: Forecasting Fog for Aviation: Kenya Case Study
This lesson aims to improve aviation forecasts of fog in the African airspace by teaching forecasters to make more accurate forecasts using satellite imagery, numerical weather prediction, and other available data. A process for diagnosing and forecasting fog is presented and applied to a case over the Nairobi, Kenya region. Learners assume the role of aviation forecaster, analysing various products to determine whether the current Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) is valid or needs to be amended. The lesson is intended for aviation forecasters, general weather forecasters interested in aviati ...Permalink![]()
Vorticity Maxima and Comma Patterns
Vorticity maxima signatures are very common and indicate areas of ascending circulation and atmospheric forcing. The correct placement of vorticity maxima is vital to the placement of related dynamic features such as the axis of maximum winds and deformation zones. This module is part of the series “Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette”.Permalink![]()
Quasi Geostrophic Vorticity Equation
This learning object/widget is designed for upper-level undergraduates or forecaster interns who want to apply their knowledge of the Quasi-geostrophic Vorticity Equation to forecast situations. The interactivity helps users see how each variable interacts within the equation and shows data for different phase shifts of 500hPa and 1000hPa heights. Instructors can use this learning object with their own question sets as well to build more understanding and application into their dynamics/synoptic courses.Permalink![]()
Intelligent Use of Model-Derived Products - version 2
This module, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", discusses three aspects of forecast guidance developed from raw NWP model data: Post-processing Statistical guidance Model assessment tools Post-processing methods, including a new section of downscaling of coarser resolution data, bias correction, and post-processing of ensemble forecast system data, are introduced. Interpolation of raw model data to produce the data seen by operational meteorologists is also described. Next, we present information on statistical guidance methods and techniques, incl ...Permalink![]()
Introduction to Ocean Tides
Ocean tides profoundly impact coastal maritime operations. This module provides an introduction to the origin, characteristics, and prediction of tides. After introducing common terminology, the module examines the mechanisms that cause and modify tides, including both astronomical and meteorological effects. A discussion of tide prediction techniques and products concludes the module. This module includes rich graphics, audio narration, embedded interactions, and a companion print version.Permalink![]()
Introduction to VIIRS Imaging and Applications
This lesson introduces the VIIRS imager that operates on the current U.S. Suomi NPP satellite and is planned for future JPSS environmental satellites. VIIRS has many advanced features that improve both spectral and spatial resolution and enable the delivery of consistent, high quality, and high resolution data to users worldwide. The lesson covers the enhanced capabilities of VIIRS and highlights some of its applications. These include single channel and multispectral products used to monitor dust, volcanic ash, convection, fog and low clouds, sea surface temperature, tropical cyclones, contra ...Permalink![]()
Advances in Microwave Remote Sensing: Ocean Wind Speed and Direction
This Webcast covers the ocean surface wind retrieval process, the basics of microwave polarization as it relates to wind retrievals, and several operational examples. Information on the development of microwave sensors used to retrieve ocean surface wind speed and the ocean surface wind vector (speed and direction) is also included.Permalink![]()
Analyzing Ocean Swell
This module describes the main elements to consider when analyzing wave model and buoy data. The module focuses on data products available from NOAA including spectral plots, maps, and text bulletins. East and West Coast wave-masking exercises conclude the module. The content in this module is an excerpt from the previously published COMET module Rip Currents: Forecasting.Permalink![]()
SatFC-G: Near-IR Bands
This lesson introduces you to three of the four near-infrared imager bands (at 1.37, 1.6, and 2.2 micrometers) on the GOES R-U ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager), focusing on their spectral characteristics and how they affect what each band observes. For information on the 0.86 micrometer near-IR "veggie" band which is not included here, refer to the Visible and Near-IR Bands lesson. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.Permalink![]()
Satellite Meteorology: Introduction to Using the GOES Sounder
This module, adapted for the Web from the CD-ROM released in 1998, reviews GOES sounder characteristics, data products, and applications concurrent with the GOES I(8)-P satellites. Topics covered include the electromagnetic spectrum and sounder channel selection, weighting functions for temperature and moisture determination, and assessment of GOES sounder products. Sample imagery and products are provided along with several short case examples that demonstrate how these products are beneficial to meteorological analysis and forecasting applications.Permalink![]()
Australian Severe Thunderstorm Case Studies
In this southern hemisphere-focused module, the student can work through a major Australian severe thunderstorm event in detail and examine aspects of two other severe thunderstorm events. Follow a forecast time-line to assess data and make decisions from the pre-storm phase through the warning phase. This module was developed for and the copyrights are owned by the Bureau of Meteorology Australia.Permalink![]()
Introduction to Electromagnetic and Electro-Optic Propagation
This lesson describes the properties of electromagnetic and electro-optical radiation and how their propagation is affected by the atmosphere and weather. Atmospheric variables that affect EM propagation include temperature, moisture, pressure, and composition. These variables control processes including refraction, absorption, and scattering.Permalink![]()
Basics of Visible and Infrared Remote Sensing
This lesson presents the scientific and technical basis for using visible and infrared satellite imagery so forecasters can make optimal use of it for observing and forecasting the behaviour of the atmosphere. The concepts and capabilities presented are common to most international geostationary (GEO) and low-Earth orbiting (LEO) meteorological satellites since their inception, and continue to apply to both current and newer satellite constellations. The lesson reviews remote sensing and radiative transfer theory through a series of conceptual models. Discussions contain explanations of the di ...Permalink![]()
S-290 Unit 10: Fuel Moisture
S-290 Unit 10: Fuel Moisture provides information about live and dead fuel moisture contents and their relation to fire behavior. Influences on fuel moisture and methods for estimating dead fuel and live fuel moisture in the field are summarized, and guidance is offered for assessing the potential fire danger based on fuel moisture and other fireline information. The module is part of the Intermediate Wildland Fire Behavior Course.Permalink![]()
Microwave Remote Sensing: Land and Ocean Surface Applications, 2nd Edition
This lesson introduces the concepts and principles basic to retrieving important land and ocean surface properties using microwave remote sensing observations from polar-orbiting satellites. Section one reviews the advantages of microwave remote sensing from polar-orbiting platforms and briefly highlights some of the unique spectral characteristics that allow for differentiation between various surface types and properties. Subsequent sections present a more in-depth look at the derivation and application of microwave products that quantify four different land and ocean surface properties and ...Permalink![]()
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 8: Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclones are the deadliest tropical weather systems. This chapter describes their seasonal and geographic variability and controls, decadal cycles, and history of naming conventions. Tropical cyclogenesis is explored in depth and the core and balance solutions for regions of the cyclone are examined. Intensity is considered in terms of inner-core dynamics, large-scale environmental controls, limits on potential intensity, satellite interpretation techniques, and classification by wind speed. Factors that influence motion are investigated. Extratropical transition is described in terms ...Permalink![]()
Sea Ice and Products and Services of the National Ice Center
This two-hour module examines sea ice, icebergs, and the products and services of the National Ice Center and the North American Ice Service. Topics include climatology and current trends in sea ice extent and thickness; the development, classification, and drift of sea ice and icebergs; fractures, leads and polynyas; and the satellite detection of sea ice using visible, infrared, and microwave sensors.Permalink![]()
Landfalling Fronts and Cyclones
Landfalling cyclones and their attendant fronts significantly impact the structure of mesoscale wind and precipitation fields along the west coast of North America. This module focuses on the complex interaction of the wind field with topography and the resulting effects on nearshore winds and precipitation. For example, prefrontal conditions may lead to flow blocking, development of a barrier jet, and seaward displacement of the maximum precipitation. Postfrontal conditions tend to promote windward ridging and lee troughing, which enhance along-coast flow.Permalink![]()
Climate Variability and Change Lectures, July 2013
This lesson presents 13 recorded presentations from the 29 July–2 August, 2013 offering of the Climate Variability and Change Virtual Course (CVCVC). This five-day live facilitated online course provided an extensive background on a range of climate variability and change topics with an emphasis on developing communication skills for challenging climate topics. The topics covered in this course, while aimed primarily at NOAA operational climate services delivery staff will also be helpful for others who already possess a basic level of understanding of climate science. Presentations include: W ...Permalink![]()
Fog: Its Processes and Impacts to Aviation and Aviation Forecasting
This module first introduces forecasters to aviation-forecast customers and their needs, and discusses how fog impacts aviation operations. The main content of the module then explains the physical processes and life cycle of radiation and advection fog, including their preconditioning environment, initiation, growth, and dissipation. The processes covered in the module include radiation (both solar and longwave), soil-atmosphere thermal interactions, turbulent mixing, the roles of condensation nuclei, and droplet settling. Each section of the module includes a set of interactive questions bas ...Permalink![]()
Radio Wave Propagation
As a society we have become dependent on satellite communications, but satellites fail with alarming frequency. Before the advent of satellites, long distance communications were carried out with high frequency (HF) radio transmissions. This lesson examines the factors that control long-distance radio communications, with an emphasis on refraction in the ionosphere, frequency selection, and the effects of solar radiation.Permalink![]()
Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette
This series addresses the use of satellite imagery and focuses attention on the identification of dynamic features using high-resolution satellite imagery with NWP verification. The series will eventually include more than 20 feature presentations on topics such as comma clouds, jet streaks, deformation zones, surface features, convection, and blocking. Each feature presentation includes interactive identification exercises, analysis and diagnosis, conceptual models, and forecast implications.Permalink![]()
Weather Ready Nation: Prepare and Be Safe!
These Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) scenarios—eight in all—take about 10 minutes each to complete. The scenarios are based on potential weather events ranging from floods to heatwaves and teach safety steps individuals should take before, during and after significant weather events. Users can choose their geographic location and appropriate age group. This learning resource was developed by Raytheon as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) Ambassador™ initiative, and incorporates feedback from NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agen ...Permalink![]()
Introduction to Ensembles: Forecasting Hurricane Sandy
This module provides an introduction to ensemble forecast systems with an operational case study of Hurricane Sandy. The module concentrates on models from NCEP and FNMOC available to forecasters in the U.S. Navy, including NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), and NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability). Probabilistic forecasts of winds and waves developed from these ensemble forecast systems are applied to a ship transit and coastal resource protection. Lessons integrated in the case study provide information on ensemble statistics, products, bias correction and ...Permalink![]()
Met 101: Introduction to the World's Oceans
This short lesson provides an overview of the world's oceans, including information about geography, physical properties, major currents, and the effects of oceans on weather and climate. Brief information about wind waves, swell, and tides and the drivers of each of these phenomena are included along with an introduction to ocean measurements.Permalink![]()
Monitoring the Climate System with Satellites
The international science community has identified a set of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) that should be monitored for measuring the climate system, how it is changing, and its likely impact on future climate. Environmental satellites play an important role in this effort. They are uniquely positioned to provide broad, spatially consistent, and continuous global sampling of many of the ECVs. This module explores the benefits of monitoring the climate system with satellites. We begin by reviewing how satellites observe key atmospheric elements and features that are found in a variety of cl ...Permalink![]()
Isentropic Analysis
This Webcast, presented by Dr. Jim Moore of St. Louis University, covers the advantages and applications of diagnosis and visualization of large-scale flow and vertical motion on surfaces of constant potential temperature. The movement of moisture along these surfaces is emphasized, as is the diagnosis of the components of vertical motion. Background mathematical concepts are presented, then illustrated with soundings, cross sections, and plan view analyses of data from multiple cases.Permalink![]()
GOES-R Series Multilingual Training Resources
This listing of multilingual training materials for the GOES-R series includes both foundational lessons and quick guides developed by various partners at the request of the U.S. National Weather Service and NESDIS. The selections included here represent materials translated to Spanish and Portuguese. Training contributors include COMET, RAMMB/CIRA, CIMSS, and SPoRT. Translation contributors/reviewers include the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) in Argentina and the University of São Paulo in Brazil.Permalink![]()
Case Study: A Northern Plains Cold-Air Outbreak Event
This case study focuses on making a forecast and writing a TAF so that it best represents the meteorological situation to aviation customers. During the exercise, the student prepares a forecast for Sioux Falls, South Dakota. As part of the Distance Learning Aviation Course 1 (DLAC1) on Fog and Stratus Forecasting, the exercise applies concepts taught in the rest of the course, with special emphasis on determining the impacts on airfield flight operations and creating a TAF that describes those impacts. The module is a re-creation of several live teletraining sessions offered in 2003 as part o ...Permalink![]()
Analysis, Diagnosis, and Short-Range Forecast Tools
This lesson is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the importance of analysis and diagnosis in evaluating NWP in the forecast process. In section two, we discuss a methodology for dealing with discrepancies between both the official forecast and NWP compared to analysis and diagnosis. The third section shows a representative example of the methodology.Permalink![]()
Ocean Effect Snow: New England Snow Storm, 14 January 1999
This case study is the first in the Mesoscale Aspects of Winter Weather Forecasting module series. The case is presented as a series of challenging forecast questions followed by a more traditional case study presentation. Included in the exercise is a rich set of data products and a series of background materials on lake/ocean effect snow and winter microphysics processes.Permalink![]()
Tsunamis
This lesson introduces the science of tsunamis: their causes, initiation process, properties, propagation, inundation, and long-term effects. Through numerous animations, historical images, video, and interactive exercises, learners discover the ways tsunamis interact with and affect the world. The lesson is intended for Weather Forecast Office staff — particularly National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologists — who desire a better understanding of tsunamis in their role as issuers of tsunami warning-related messages. But it will also benefit anyone wanting to learn more about h ...Permalink![]()
Community Tsunami Preparedness, 2nd Edition
This lesson is designed to help emergency managers prepare their communities for tsunamis. Topics include basic tsunami science, hazards produced by tsunamis, the tsunami warning system, the importance of public education activities, and how to craft good emergency messages and develop tsunami response plans. The lesson also contains links to extensive Reference and Resources sections.Permalink![]()
Introduction to Climatology for the Tropical Pacific Islands
This lesson provides information on climatology—what it is, the factors that create an area's climate, and the sources and uses of climate information. Focused specifically on tropical Pacific islands, the content covers the key features influencing climate in that region and includes examples for four locations distributed across the tropical Pacific Ocean, both north and south of the equator. The lesson provides a basic introduction to tropical climatology intended for a wide range of users, from meteorology technicians, forecasters, and scientists, to those in industries or sectors influenc ...Permalink![]()
Assessing Fire Danger
The “Assessing Fire Danger” distance learning module explores techniques for recognizing weather and fuel conditions contributing to fire danger. The module includes a matrix of data sources offering useful weather, fuels, and other information related to fire ignition, spread, and intensity. An overview of situational awareness practices provides information relevant to forecasters in the office or field. This module is part of the Advanced Fire Weather Forecasters Course.Permalink![]()
Feature Identification Exercises: Clouds, Snow, and Ice Using MODIS
This module consists of four exercises where users identify surface features, distinguish clouds from snow on the ground, and determine cloud phase using multispectral analysis. The module also includes an overview of multispectral techniques available on many operational and research polar-orbiting satellites. A page with links to real-time polar-orbiting data and information is also included.Permalink![]()
Weather and the Built Environment
This short course provides broadcast meteorologists, educators, and the public with an overview of the evolution of our modern urban environment with a focus on impacts on the urban watershed, air quality, and climate. This course complements the course Watersheds: Connecting Weather to the Environment and both are part of the Earth Gauge™ environmental curriculum for weathercasters and educators. This curriculum is being developed by the National Environmental Education Foundation (NEEF). [See http://www.earthgauge.net/wp/] Unit 1, Where We Live, takes a look at past and current U.S. growth p ...Permalink![]()
Unified Terrain in the National Blend of Models
This lesson discusses errors associated with the use of inconsistent terrain in the analyses in the Real-Time and the Un-Restricted Mesoscale Analyses (RTMA and URMA, respectively), and in downscaling numerical weather prediction model data to the resolution of the U.S. National Weather Service National Blend of Models (NBM). The sources of these inconsistencies are examined, and the errors that result are discussed. A solution is to use a unified, consistent terrain in the analyses and the NBM. This solution is only partial however, as resolution of small, meteorologically significant feature ...Permalink![]()
Influence of Model Physics on NWP Forecasts - version 2
This module, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", describes model parameterizations of surface, PBL, and free atmospheric processes, such as surface snow processes, soil thermal and moisture processes, surface vegetation effects such as evapotranspiration, radiative processes involving clouds and trace gases, and turbulent processes in the PBL and free atmosphere. It specifically addresses how models treat these processes, how such processes can potentially interact with each other, and how they can influence forecasts of sensible weather elements. B ...Permalink![]()
National Water Model, Part 1: Science and Products
This lesson provides an introduction to the benefits, important input (forcing data), and key products of the National Water Model. Both official and evolving products are presented. The lesson uses the flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 to demonstrate key products.Permalink![]()
GOES-16 and S-NPP/JPSS Case Exercise: Hurricane Harvey Surface Flooding
Satellite data are important tools for analyses and short-term forecasts of surface floodwater. This lesson will highlight the August 2017 flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey in southeastern Texas, one of the most costly weather disasters in U.S. history. Through the use of interactive exercises the learner will become familiar with use and interpretation of satellite imagery in regions with surface flooding. The lesson will use data from both the S-NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The satellite-derived flood map and th ...Permalink![]()
Introduction to Ocean Models
Oceans cover over 70% of the surface of the earth, yet many details of their workings are not fully understood. To better understand and forecast the state of the ocean, we rely on numerical ocean models. Ocean models combine observations and physics to predict the ocean temperature, salinity, and currents at any time and any place across the ocean basins. This module will discuss what goes into numerical ocean models, including model physics, coordinate systems, parameterization, initialization, and boundary conditions.Permalink![]()
PBL in Complex Terrain - Part 1
This is part 1 of a 2-part Webcast based on a presentation by Dr. David Whiteman on August 11, 2004 in Boulder, CO. Dr. Whiteman presents conceptual and practical information regarding winds in the planetary boundary layer in complex terrain. Part 1 topics include diurnal wind systems, mountain-plain wind systems, and slope wind systems.Permalink![]()
Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information for Everyday Users - Presentation at 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts
Although previous research suggests that we are not very good at reasoning with uncertainty, the research described in this talk is far more encouraging. Unlike earlier work that compares peoples' decisions to a rational standard, these experiments compared decisions made by people with uncertainty information to decisions made by people without uncertainty information. The results suggest that including specific numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts leads to better decisions. This talk was part of Meteorological Service of Canada's 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Us ...Permalink![]()
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Upgrade
The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system underwent a major upgrade in Fall 2015. The intended result of the upgrade was to improve the SREF ensemble spread and probabilistic skill, and to reduce a cool, wet bias in surface and near-surface temperatures and moisture. This 20-minute lesson addresses the changes to improve the SREF, including the increase in ensemble size, the increase in initial condition and model physics diversity, and drier land surface parameters to lessen the cool, wet bias. Each is introduced by comparing the old and new SREF forecasts for a potential winter storm f ...Permalink![]()
Tsunami Warning Systems
Tsunami Warning Systems describes the processes involved in anticipating, detecting, and warning for a tsunami by summarizing data collection, modeling, analysis, and alert procedures used at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers. A simulated event and past tsunami occurrences are used to highlight warning system processes for determining the tsunami threat based on seismic and sea level data and tsunami forecast models. Message communication and local response are also addressed as final components of any warning system. The module is intended for Weather Forecast Office staff and emergency managers ...Permalink