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Interpreting and Communicating EPS Guidance: Germany Winter Event
This 45-minute lesson briefly introduces learners to the benefits of using probabilistic forecast information to assess weather and communicate forecast uncertainties. Learners will explore a winter weather event in Germany and practice synthesizing deterministic and probabilistic forecast guidance to better understand forecast uncertainties based on lead-time. Also, learners will decide how to best communicate the potential weather threats and impacts to local end users. The lesson is another component of the Forecast Uncertainty: EPS Products, Interpretation, and Communication distance learn ...
Interpreting and Communicating EPS Guidance: Iberian Heat Wave
This 45-minute lesson briefly introduces learners to the benefits of using probabilistic forecast information to assess the weather and communicate forecast uncertainties. Learners will explore a heat wave event in Spain and practice interpreting EPS forecast products effectively to determine various forecast parameters based on lead-time. Also, learners will decide how to best communicate the potential weather threats and impacts information to local end users.
Interpreting and Communicating EPS Guidance: British Columbia Winter Storm
This 45-minute lesson provides an opportunity to use ensemble prediction system products to evaluate uncertainty in the forecast and then communicate that information effectively to a public audience. The lesson places learners in the role of a Meteorological Service of Canada forecaster who must assess forecast uncertainty and then issue early warning notifications to decision-makers regarding the winter storm. In a subsequent work shift during the event, the learner must effectively deliver forecast information via social media and respond to questions from the general public. The lesson is ...
Communicating Forecast Uncertainty, European Case
This lesson is a follow-on to COMET’s Communicating Forecast Uncertainty lesson, which introduces research findings on the effective communication of uncertainty information and enables learners to apply them to a North American case. This lesson focuses on a European winter weather case and provides an additional opportunity to evaluate end-user needs and formulate effective responses to their questions based on the research findings. Learners are strongly encouraged to take Communicating Forecast Uncertainty before starting this lesson. The lesson is aimed at experienced forecasters with kno ...
Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
This scenario-based lesson introduces the topic of communicating forecast uncertainty to decision-makers, such as emergency managers, related industry professionals, the public, and other end-users. In a case that spans the lesson, learners begin by developing a forecast discussion using deterministic data, refine it with probabilistic ensemble data, and evaluate how well it conveys uncertainty information. Then they assume several end-user roles, assessing how well the forecast discussion addresses their needs. From there, important research findings on communicating uncertainty are discussed ...
Operational Models Encyclopedia
The availability of numerical guidance from NWP models has been an important component of operational forecasting for decades. For many, the output from this numerical guidance was produced by a mysterious “black box”. Rules for using and adjusting the guidance for operational forecasters were often subjective “Rules of Thumb” based on experience rather than based on quantitative analysis. To open up this “black box”, we produced this web-based “Operational Models Encyclopedia” linking both generic information on how NWP models work, and specifics on physical parameterizations, dynamics, and d ...
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty
This lesson introduces learners to the uncertainty and errors in forecasting the track, timing, and intensity of tropical cyclones. It provides an overview of how the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty is constructed, as well as its uses and common misconceptions. Learners will explore the influences of track, timing, and intensity forecast errors on potential tropical cyclones impacts. The lesson offers suggestions on how to communicate tropical cyclone forecasts knowing their inherent uncertainty. This online lesson is part of the Tropical Cyclone Storm Winds: Forecasting and Co ...
Determining Plausible Forecast Outcomes
The content of this lesson will assist the forecaster with the third step of the forecast process, namely, determining plausible forecast outcomes forward in time. The lesson will highlight the role of probabilistic forecast tools to assess the degree of uncertainty in a forecast, as well as suggest an approach for evaluating past and present model performance.
PWS-SG, 01. Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
This summary guide is for forecasters who are required to include uncertainty information in weather and climate forecasts and want to know the best way to present it. It provides advice on communicating probability forecasts, or other kinds of uncertainty information.
GCOS, 127. Conseil Pratique pour l'Établissement des Messages CLIMAT
Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM); Programme des Nations Unies pour l'environnement (PNUE); Conseil International pour la Science (ICSU); et al. - OMM, 2009
GCOS, 127. Practical Help for Compiling CLIMAT Reports
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); International Council for Science (ICSU); et al. - WMO, 2009 (WMO/TD-No. 1477)
ГСНК, 127. Практическая помощь в составлении сводок CLIMAT
Всемирная Метеорологическая Организация (BMO); Программа ООН по окружающей среде (ЮНЕП); Международного совета по науке (ICSU); et al. - BMO, 2009 (ВMO/TД-No. 1477)
SMOC, 127. Ayuda práctica para la compilación de informes CLIMAT
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM); Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA); Consejo Internacional para la Ciencia (ICSU); et al. - OMM, 2009 (OMM/DT (ES)-No. 1477)
Introduction to Verification of Hydrologic Forecasts
This module offers a comprehensive description of a set of common verification measures for hydrologic forecasts, both deterministic and probabilistic. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains how these verification measures can provide valuable information to users with varying needs. In addition to providing a measure of how well a forecast matches observations, verification measures can be used to help forecasters and users learn about the strengths and weaknesses of a forecast.
PWS, 18. Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Martin Claire; Cacic Ivan; et al. - WMO, 2008 (WMO/TD-No. 1422)Communicating the uncertainty of the forecast is vital to users. It allows them to make better decisions that are attuned to the reliability of the forecast. It also helps to manage the expectations of users for accurate forecasts. These Guidelines address the issue of communicating forecast uncertainty. Although they include a discussion on the sources of uncertainty, and touch on the related science (e.g. probabilistic forecasting, the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) ensembles), this is not their focus. Rather, the emphasis is on how National Meteorological and Hydrological Servic ...
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