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Evaluation of subseasonal prediction of extreme rainfall events and their relationship with the Madden Julian Oscillation over the Solomon Islands
The conference provides an opportunity for students especially PhD students to present their work and get feedback from other professionals. Not only that but the it also offers an excellent chance for networking among aspiring scientists and the possibility for future collaborations.
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Plaidoyer en faveur de la prévision hydrologique à échéance prolongée pour une meilleure gestion des ressources en eau
L’eau douce est une ressource importante pour la vie humaine, l’activité économique, la santé des écosystèmes et les processus géophysiques. Au cours de la première décennie du XXIe siècle, l’Australie a subi des épisodes de conditions météorologiques extrêmes et vécu, en 2013, l’année la plus chaude jamais observée depuis le début des relevés, en 1910. Les conditions hydrologiques en Australie comptent parmi les plus variables du monde. Le pays peut traverser de longues périodes de sécheresse comme la «sécheresse du millénaire» qui a frappé, entre 1997 et 2000, la plus grande partie de l’est ...
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The Case for Extended Hydrologic Prediction Services for Improved Water Resource Management
Fresh water is important for human life, economic activity, ecosystem health and geophysical processes. Over the first decade of the twenty-first century, Australia weathered marked extremes, experiencing its warmest period, with 2013 marked as its warmest year since national records began in 1910. Hydrological conditions in Australia are among the most variable on Earth. Its streamflow regime can go through prolonged periods of droughts such as the “Millennium drought” that occurred between 1997 and 2000 across most parts of eastern Australia. This variability has a profound impact on the man ...
Instability Indices and Heavy Rainfall Forecast in a Maritime Environment
Forecasting heavy rainfall associated with in-situ convective cloud development over small island states is a challenge in operational forecasting as not all numerical models are able to resolve convection at such small scales. Forecasting of such phenomena is mainly based on prevailing local conditions and the use of a plethora of thermodynamic indices derived from the local sounding. This study is an effort to assess the suitability of the different available indices, hereafter referred as traditional indices, to forecast heavy rainfall from local convection, commonly known as pure sea breez ...
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CAWCR technical report, 66. Observing, Estimating and Forecasting Rainfall: From Science to Applications - abstracts of the seventh CAWCR Workshop
The CAWCR Workshop is an annual event and brings together national and international expertise to highlight latest development in research relevant to CAWCR and its stakeholders. It provides an opportunity to identify gaps, opportunities, build relationships and enhance the quality, breadth and depth of our research efforts. The CAWCR Workshop is an annual event and brings together national and international expertise to highlight latest development in research relevant to CAWCR and its stakeholders. It provides an opportunity to identify gaps, opportunities, build relationships and en ...
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CAWCR technical report, 51. Improvements in POAMA2 for the prediction of major climate drivers and south eastern Australian rainfall
Lim Eun-Pa; Hendon Harry H.; Langford Sally; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2012Ocean-atmosphere interactions are key processes that drive seasonal climate variability. In the global sense, the atmosphere drives the upper ocean via heat flux, fresh water flux and wind stress (Anderson 2008). But in the tropics where the ocean surface temperature (hereafter, sea surface temperature, SST) is warm enough to trigger deep atmospheric convection, the ocean exerts strong controls on the atmosphere especially at longer time scales because of its slow variations and strong thermal inertia. Consequently, the highest predictability of atmospheric climate (e.g. temperature and rainfa ...
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Seasonal forecasting outlook for precipitation and average temperature in North Africa for the February-March-April season
ACMAD, 2012
Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also prov ...
CAWCR technical report, 40. Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Charles Andrew; Hendon Harry H.; Wang Q.J.; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information ab ...
CAWCR technical report, 39. Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability
In this report we assess forecasts from Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) in comparison to international dynamical coupled model forecast systems, which are archived as part of the ENSEMBLES project. We investigate how universal the lack of reliability is in dynamical forecasts of regional rainfall, in order to highlight any potential for improvement of the POAMA system. The systems assessed in this report show that overconfidence and lack of reliability for regional rainfall forecasts is a common problem. Due to the clear need for improved reliability and more accurate s ...
IOM Report, 103. Evaluation Scheme for Regional Instrument Centres and Other Calibration Laboratories
The calibration of instruments and the traceability of meteorological measurements to the International Standard (SI) of units are crucial to ensure the quality of meteorological observations and to meet the users’ requirements. Regional Instrument Centres (RICs) play a key role in this context, by providing calibration services to other Members of their Region. In view of the need to ensure the quality of the services provided by the RICs, and the need for strengthening of RICs, the WMO Executive Council requested CIMO to develop a mechanism for their continuous evaluation to ensure quality o ...
IOM Report, 102. CIMO Survey on national summaries of methods and instruments for solid precipitation measurement at automatic weather stations
This publication reports on the results of the CIMO survey, initiated in 2008, on the current methods, instruments and challenges for the measurement of solid precipitation at automatic weather stations. The current survey is the third in its category. It was built on the two previous surveys that were conducted by CIMO 10 and 20 years ago. Since then, the automatic stations have been providing an increased percentage of precipitation data, snow water equivalent, and depth of snow on the ground. The CIMO, at its 14th session, initiated this review to assess the methods for measurement and obse ...
Verification of the TIGGE and WRF Models in forecasting the precipitation event for 3rd February 2010 over Zambia
Nkonde Edson - NOAA, 2010In this case study, attempt was made to verify the performances of the TIGGE and WRF models in simulating rainfall over southern Africa for the period from 1st November 2009 to 10th February 2010, with 24 and 48 hrs lead time. We have tested the skills of the models in forecasting heavy rainfall event, in excess of 40mm per day. Special emphasis was given to rainfall event that occurred on the 3rd of February 2010 over Zambia. The associated atmospheric conditions prior and during the rainfall event were also analyzed, both in analysis and forecasted fields.
Over Southern Africa, all th ...
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