7. Janeković, I., Sikirić, M. D., Tomažić, I. and Kuzmić, M. (2010): Hindcasting the Adriatic Sea surface temperature and salinity: A recent modeling experience. Geofizika, 27, 85-100.
8. Anil Kumar, R., Dudhia, J. and Roy Bhowmik, S. K. (2010): Evaluation of physics options of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate high impact heavy rainfall events over Indian Monsoon region. Geofizika, 27, 101-125.
9. Jurčec, V. and Dragojlović, D. (2010): The unexpected snowstorm of 13 - 14 January 2002 in Zagreb. Geofizika, 27, 127-145.
[number or issue] 
Vol. 27 No.2 - 2010
Available online: http://geofizika-journal.gfz.hr/vol27.htm
7. Janeković, I., Sikirić, M. D., Tomažić, I. and Kuzmić, M. (2010): Hindcasting the Adriatic Sea surface temperature and salinity: A recent modeling experience. Geofizika, 27, 85-100.
8. Anil Kumar, R., Dudhia, J. and Roy Bhowmik, S. K. (2010): Evaluation of physics options of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate high impact heavy rainfall events over Indian Monsoon region. Geofizika, 27, 101-125.
9. Jurčec, V. and Dragojlović, D. (2010): The unexpected snowstorm of 13 - 14 January 2002 in Zagreb. Geofizika, 27, 127-145.
10. Jelić, D. and Klaić, Z. B. (2010): Air quality in Rijeka, Croatia. Geofizika, 27, 147-167.
[ABSTRACT] [PDF]
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Sea ; Water temperature ; Weather ; Hydrological forecast ; Precipitation ; Monsoon ; Storm ; Snow ; Adriatic Sea ; India ; Croatia 
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[number or issue]
Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Available online: https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_040.pdf
Andrew Charles ; Harry H. Hendon ; Q.J. Wang ; David Robertson ; Eun-Pa Lim
Published by: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ; 2011
Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information about its past performance. Several distinct methods for calibrating seasonal rainfall forecasts for South Eastern Australia derived from the POAMA 1.5 ensemble are compared for accuracy and reliability in order to assess their suitability for application to real-time seasonal forecasts. The calibration methods investigated were: a variance inflation method (IOV); a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) calibration technique; and a singular vector regression technique (SVD) based on co-varying patterns of model and observed rainfall. Calibration was carried out for model grid points in the Murray Darling region. Assessment was carried out using a mix of standard skill scores widely used in operational forecasting. It was found that the BJP method resulted in the best correction to forecast reliability while IOV improved reliability only modestly and the SVD scheme had a negative impact on reliability. Further study of the application of these methods to real-time forecasts is recommended.
Collection(s) and Series: CAWCR technical report- No. 40
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy (ill., charts)ISBN (or other code): 978-1-921826-58-0
Tags: Water ; Hydrological forecast ; Precipitation forecasting ; Ocean-atmosphere interaction ; Numerical weather prediction ; Sea ice ; Australia Add tag
Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability
Available online: https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_039.pdf
Sally Langford ; Harry H. Hendon
Published by: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ; 2011
In this report we assess forecasts from Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) in comparison to international dynamical coupled model forecast systems, which are archived as part of the ENSEMBLES project. We investigate how universal the lack of reliability is in dynamical forecasts of regional rainfall, in order to highlight any potential for improvement of the POAMA system. The systems assessed in this report show that overconfidence and lack of reliability for regional rainfall forecasts is a common problem. Due to the clear need for improved reliability and more accurate seasonal rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications, we have explored the benefit of combining a range of operationally available models into a multi-model ensemble, which can cancel uncorrelated error, increase spread and reduce model error. Our results indicate that there is benefit in adding POAMA version P24 to the operational models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) and Météo France (MF), into an equally weighted multi-model ensemble, to increase the reliability and consistency of accurate regional rainfall forecasts.
Collection(s) and Series: CAWCR technical report- No. 39
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy (ill., charts, maps)ISBN (or other code): 978-1-921826-56-6
Tags: Water ; Hydrological forecast ; Modelling ; Precipitation forecasting ; Australia Add tag
Manuel sur la prévision et l'annonce des crues
Available online:
Full text 
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Organisation météorologique mondiale
Published by: OMM ; 2011
Le Manuel sur la prévision et l’annonce des crues présente les éléments de connaissance et d’orientation indispensables au développement ou à la création d’un système approprié et adapté, quel que soit le cas où un système de prévision et d’annonce de crues s’impose. Il propose un tour d’horizon, à la fois succinct et fouillé, des connaissances et des renseignements dont pourrait avoir besoin le personnel compétent des Services météorologiques et hydrologiques nationaux ou d’autres services de gestion des crues. Il s’appuie sur les résultats d’importantes missions de recherche et de consultation menées récemment partout dans le monde, et contient un grand nombre de références et de liens Internet qui permettent au lecteur d’avoir accès à des sources d’information supplémentaires.
Collection(s) and Series: OMM- No. 1072
Language(s): French; Other Languages: English
Format: Digital (Free) (ill., charts, maps)ISBN (or other code): 978-92-63-21072-2
Tags: Technical Publications ; Flood ; Hydrological forecast ; Flood control ; Capacity development ; Manual ; Commission for Hydrology (CHy) Add tag
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Geofizika : geophysical journal published by the Andrija Mohorovičić Geophysical Institute, Faculty of science, University of Zagreb 
