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Tropical Cyclone Initialization with Dynamical Retrieval from a Modified UWPBL Model
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.88 No.5. Ma Lei-Ming; Tan Zhe-Min - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010A new scheme, termed Vortex Initialization with the Assimilation of Retrieved Variables (VIRV), is presented to improve the initialization of regional numerical model for Tropical Cyclone (TC) prediction. In this scheme, the horizontal winds in Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and the sea level pressure (SLP), retrieved from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data obtained using a modified University of Washington Planetary Boundary Layer (UWPBL) model, are assimilated with a cycled three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique to produce the initialized analysis. The procedures of retrieval are i ...
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Available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2010-504
in Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan > Vol.88 No.5 (October 2010) . - p.827-846A new scheme, termed Vortex Initialization with the Assimilation of Retrieved Variables (VIRV), is presented to improve the initialization of regional numerical model for Tropical Cyclone (TC) prediction. In this scheme, the horizontal winds in Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and the sea level pressure (SLP), retrieved from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data obtained using a modified University of Washington Planetary Boundary Layer (UWPBL) model, are assimilated with a cycled three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique to produce the initialized analysis. The procedures of retrieval are implemented under the joint dynamical constraints of the gradient wind, secondary circulation, and thermal stratification. Moreover, in order to improve the analysis of TC intensity, the roughness parameterization in the UWPBL model was modified for the case of strong surface wind. The sensitivities of the structure, intensity, and track of TC to the VIRV are then examined by two numerical experiments for TC Bilis (2006) and TC Fung-wong (2008).
The maximum Wind Speed (MWS) and minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) retrieved from the QuikSCAT data obtained using the modified UWPBL model show more agreement with the observations relative to those derived from the analysis of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP global model). The analysis of TC intensity cfm enhanced using VIRV by modifying the low-level (upper-level) convergence (divergence), vertical shear of horizontal wind, transportation of moisture. Significant improvement on 48-h TC simulation is identified in the MWS, with 22.8% error reduction. In particular, the Modification of Roughness Parameterization (MRP) enhanced the simulation of MWS by 6.9%. Finally, the VIRV also reduces the simulation error in the track of TC by affecting the steering flow throughout the troposphere.Language(s): English; Other Languages: Japanese
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyTags: Tropical cyclone ; Modelling ; Observations ; Natural hazards ; Numerical simulation ; Japan
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Statistical Reconstruction of the Antarctic Oscillation Index Based on Multiple Proxies
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Zhang Zi-Yin; Gong Dao-Yi; He Xue-Zhao; et al. - Science Press, 2010Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (< 50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957-89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500-1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r2), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-va ...
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Available online: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=AOSL10053
Zi-Yin Zhang ; Dao-Yi Gong ; Xue-Zhao He ; Yang-Na Lei ; Sheng-Hui Feng
in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters > Volume 3 Number 5 (16 September 2010) . - p.283-287Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (< 50 a). By applying a multivariate regression method, the observational AAO-proxy relations were calibrated and cross-validated for the period of 1957-89. The regressions were employed to compute the DJF-AAO index for 1500-1956. To verify the results, the authors checked the explained variance (r2), the reduction of error (RE), and the standard error (SE). Cross-validation was performed by applying a leave-one-out validation method. Over the entire reconstruction period, the mean values of r2, RE, and SE are 59.9%, 0.47, and 0.67, respectively. These statistics indicate that the DJF-AAO reconstruction is relatively skillful and reliable for the last ~460 years. The reconstructed AAO variations on the interannual and interdecadal timescales compare favorably with those of several shorter sea level pressure (SLP)-based AAO indices. The leading periods of the DJF-AAO index over the last 500 years are ~2.4, ~2.6, ~6.3, ~24.1, and ~37.6 years, all of which are significant at the 95% level as estimated by power spectral analysis.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyTags: Meteorology ; Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) ; Research ; Numerical simulation
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Ensemble Simulations of a Nonlinear Barotropic Model for the North Atlantic Oscillation
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Zhang Dong-Bin; Jin Fei-Fei; Li Jian-Ping; et al. - Science Press, 2010A numerical ensemble-mean approach was employed to solve a nonlinear barotropic model with stochastic basic flows to analyze the nonlinear effects in the formation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The nonlinear response to external forcing was more similar to the NAO mode than the linear response was, indicating the importance of nonlinearity. With increasing external forcing and enhanced low-frequency anomalies, the effect of nonlinearity increased. Therefore, for strong NAO events, nonlinearity should be considered.
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Available online: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=AOSL10052
Dong-Bin Zhang ; Fei-Fei Jin ; Jian-Ping Li ; Rui-Quiang Ding
in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters > Volume 3 Number 5 (16 September 2010) . - p.277-282A numerical ensemble-mean approach was employed to solve a nonlinear barotropic model with stochastic basic flows to analyze the nonlinear effects in the formation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The nonlinear response to external forcing was more similar to the NAO mode than the linear response was, indicating the importance of nonlinearity. With increasing external forcing and enhanced low-frequency anomalies, the effect of nonlinearity increased. Therefore, for strong NAO events, nonlinearity should be considered.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyTags: Meteorology ; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) ; Research ; Numerical simulation
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WCRP, 80. Simulation and prediction of monsoons, recent results
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) ; World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); et al. - WMO, 1993 (WMO/TD-No. 546)
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) ; World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions ; International Council for Science
Event: OGA/WGNE Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group (12-14 January 1993; New Delhi, India)
Published by: WMO ; 1993Collection(s) and Series: WMO/TD- No. 546; WCRP- No. 80
Language(s): English
Format: Hard copy (ill.)Tags: Monsoon ; Numerical simulation ; Numerical weather prediction ; Tropical climate ; World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
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WCRP, 70. Report of the seventh session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) - WMO, 1992 (WMO/TD-No. 477)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions
Published by: WMO ; 1992Collection(s) and Series: WMO/TD- No. 477; WCRP- No. 70
Language(s): English
Format: Hard copy (ill.)Tags: Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) ; World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) ; Numerical simulation
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CAgM Report, 33B. Manual on use of PC, MS-DOS, EDIT and CSMP for simulation of primary production
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Centre for Agrobiological Research (CABO) ; Department of Theoretical Production Ecology (TPE) - WMO, 1990
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CAgM Report, 33A. Simulation of primary production
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Centre for Agrobiological Research (CABO) ; Department of Theoretical Production Ecology (TPE) - WMO, 1990 (revised edition; WMO/TD-No. 248)
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WCRP, 49. TOGA monsoon climate research : report of the second session of the Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council for Science (ICSU) - WMO, 1990 (WMO/TD-No. 392)
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WCRP, 24. JSC/CCCO TOGA numerical experimentation group : report of the second session
ICSU Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research ; World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - WMO, 1989 (WMO/TD-No. 307)
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Informe de la CMAg, 33B. Manual sobre uso de PC, MS-DOS, EDIT Y CSMP para simulación de producción primaria
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM); Centro de Investigaciones Agrobiológicas (CABO); Departamento de Ecología Teóricas de la Producción (TPE) - OMM, 1988
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Informe de la CMAg, 33A. Simulación de producción primaria
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM); Centro de Investigaciones Agrobiológicas (CABO); Departamento de Ecología Teóricas de la Producción (TPE) - OMM, 1988 (OMM/DT (ES)-No. 248)
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GARP Publications Series, 27. Scientific results of the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX): scientific papers presented at the Conference - Volume I
International Council for Science (ICSU); World Meteorological Organization (WMO) - WMO, 1986 (WMO/TD-No. 108)
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