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Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts
The purpose of this publication is to describe and recommend procedures for the verification of operational probabilistic seasonal forecasts, including those from the Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and other forecasting centres. The recommendations are meant to complement the WMO Commission for Basic Systems Standardized Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (SVSLRF). SVSLRF defines standards for verifying model outputs from Global Producing Centres (GPCs), and so includes procedures for measuring the quality of ensemble predic ...
ETR, 22. Seasonal Climate Forecast - COURSE PACKAGE T.O.P. : Theory and Operational Principles, Project Report
This is the report on the project to create the Seasonal Climate Forecast - Course Package T.O.P. The goal of this online course package is to allow the transfer of seasonal climate forecast knowledge to improve and increase the operational capabilities of the targeted users. The package provides both a theoretical and a practical set of knowledge on seasonal forecast and predictability models, climate and data analysis, forecast verification, and specific application of seasonal forecast for agriculture and water management.
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Proyecto de predicción subestacional a estacional: tendiendo un puente entre el tiempo y el clima
En las últimas décadas se han alcanzado grandes progresos en el desarrollo y las aplicaciones de la predicción del tiempo a medio plazo y la predicción estacional del clima. El proyecto de predicción subestacional a estacional acercará a las comunidades meteorológicas y climáticas para afrontar las escalas de tiempo implicadas, aprovechando la experiencia compartida y complementaria y los conocimientos de predicción, investigación y aplicaciones, en busca de sistemas de predicción del tiempo y del clima que presenten una mayor continuidad e integración.
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Subseasonal to seasonal prediction project: bridging the gap between weather and climate
Great progress has been made in recent decades on development and applications of medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. The subseasonal to seasonal project will bring the weather and climate communities together to tackle the intervening time range, harnessing shared and complementary experience and expertise in forecasting, research and applications, toward more seamless weather/climate prediction systems and more integrated weather and climate services.
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Seasonal forecasting outlook for precipitation and average temperature in North Africa for the February-March-April season
ACMAD, 2012
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Agricultural Meteorology Programme (AgMP), 102. Use Of Seasonal Forecasts And Climate Prediction In Operational Agriculture
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Kanga A.; Magrin Graciela O.; et al. - WMO, 2007 (WMO/TD-No. 1344)The Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAgM) at its 12 th Session held in Accra, Ghana, 18-26 February 1999, established the Working Group on the Use of Seasonal Forecasts Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture. The Terms of Reference of the Working Group are:
a) In liaison with the CLIPS project, review and summarise the current advances in seasonal forecasts and climate prediction and the products and services relevant to agriculture that are becoming available based on the forecasts
b) To survey and summarise, using appropriate case studies, the current applicat ...
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Improved seasonal climate forecasts of the South Asian summer monsoon using a suite of 13 coupled ocean-atmosphere models
Several modeling studies have shown that the south Asian monsoon region has the lowest skill for seasonal forecasts compared with many other domains of the world. This paper demonstrates that a multimodel synthetic superensemble approach, when constructed with any set of coupled atmosphere-ocean models, can provide improved skill in seasonal climate prediction compared with single-member models or their ensemble mean for the south Asian summer monsoon region. However, performance of the superensemble tends to improve when a better set of input member models are used. As many as 13 state-of-the ...
CAgM Report, 102. Use Of Seasonal Forecasts And Climate Prediction In Operational Agriculture
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Kanga A.; Magrin Graciela O.; et al. - WMO, 2006 (WMO/TD-No. 1344)Report of the Joint Rapporteurs on the Impact of Agrometeorological Advisories and Information on Operational Aspects of Forestry Planning, with Emphasis on Wildland Fire Ecology, Including the Use of Prescribed Fire in Rangelands and Forests Preventing and Combating Wildfires in Forests and Rangelands.
Towards improved seasonal rainfall forecast over Malawi : research report for WMO Class II 2005 to 2006
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR) - IMTR, 2006Extreme climate events such as floods and droughts have devastating socio-economic impacts associated with food shortages, famine, lack of energy, water, shelter and other major basic needs. Because these events are recurrent in nature, effective, accurate and timely prediction and early warning of these events can enable Governments and other stakeholders to put into motion appropriate actions for mitigating or alleviating their adverse impacts. In this study, the relationship between seasonal rainfall and global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies was examined. The analysis was based primarily ...
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Seasonal prediction of sea surface temperatures anomalies using a suite of 13 coupled atmosphere-ocean models
Improved seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the global oceans is the theme of this paper. Using 13 state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere-ocean models and 13 yr of seasonal forecasts, the performance of individual models, the ensemble mean, the bias-removed ensemble mean, and the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble are compared. A total of 23 400 seasonal forecasts based on 1-month lead times were available for this study. Evaluation metrics include both deterministic and probabilistic skill measures, such as verification of anomalies based on mode ...
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Seasonal Forecast Course Package T.O.P.: Theory and Operational Principles (2017) 
