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Extreme weather events and crop price spikes in a changing climate: illustrative global simulation scenarios
Willenbockel D. - Oxfam, 2012Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. Various impact studies have considered the effects of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentrations caused by climate change on global food production and prices. However, according to this study, an area that remains underexplored is the food price impacts that may result from an expected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food pri ...
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CGIAR Working paper, 23. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural and aquatic systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate
CCAFS, 2012The document attempts to distil what is currently known about the likely impacts of climate change on the commodities and natural resources that comprise the mandate of CGIAR and its 15 Centres. It was designed as one background document for a review carried out by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE) at the behest of the UN Committee on World Food Security (CFS) on what is known about the likely effects of climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and vulnerable regions and populations. A total of 25 summaries covering 22 ...
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Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration
UNESCO, 2012This collection of papers, presented at the symposium ‘Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration’ held on 21 September 2011 in the Netherlands, highlight how climate change, water stress and other environmental problems threaten human security. For example, the paper by Muniruzzaman ilustrates how water ignores political and community boundaries, and how decisions in one place can significantly affect water use elsewhere. India’s plans to build more dams could, for instance, have devastating affects for Pakistan’s agricultural productivity which is highly dependent on water supply f ...
Feeling the heat: the human cost of poor preparation for disasters
Islamic Relief Worldwide, 2012This report shows the positive difference Islamic Relief Worldwide is beginning to make in the area of disaster risk reduction (DRR) by highlighting how village disaster committees and earthworks to raise people’s houses have reduced the impact of seasonal flooding in north-western Bangladesh. It shows how irrigated vegetable growing and microfinance loans for small businesses are helping former pastoralists to build new livelihoods in north-eastern Kenya that are less vulnerable to drought. It provides evidence that being better prepared can save money as well as lives and shows that it can b ...
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Developing a climate-smart agriculture strategy at the country level: lessons from recent experience
Since the Global Conference on Climate Change, Food Security and Agriculture held at the Hague in 2010, the concept of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has gained increasing attention at international and national levels, with several countries initiating related activities. The objective of this paper is to highlight recent experiences with country-level implementation of CSA to identify some key lessons to incorporate in ongoing efforts to expand the use of the approach in developing countries. Section 1 describes the evolution of the concept of CSA since the Hague conference. Section 2 i ...
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Greening the economy with climate-smart agriculture
Agriculture has to address simultaneously three intertwined challenges: ensuring food security through increased productivity and income, adapting to climate change and contributing to climate change mitigation. To accomplish this, food systems have to become, at the same time, more efficient and resilient, at every scale from the farm level to the global level. Radical changes are needed in agricultural and food systems. These changes can play an essential role in greening the economy and contributing to sustainable development. This paper considers the intertwined challenges of food sec ...
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The critical decade: Queensland climate impacts and opportunities
Queensland’s climate is already changing and is likely to change further in the future, posing significant risks for the state. The next chapter of the climate story is about how Queenslanders, and Australians, can find solutions that minimise the risks of climate change while providing extra benefits for our health, community, economy and environment.
Projection of crop yield in Bhutan under climate change using PRECIS regional climate model
Bhutan is classified as one of the forty-eight least developed countries with farmers comprising more than two-thirds of its total population. The agriculture sector, which is a significant contributor to the country’s gross domestic product, has been vulnerable to extreme climate events in recent decades. As an effort to address the potential challenges it will face under climate change, this thesis projects the yields of three primary crops grown in Bhutan, rice, wheat and maize, for the period 2030 to 2050, based on climate projections by the PRECIS regional climate model.
In this st ...
Good Practices in Building Innovative Rural Institutions to Increase Food Security
Continued population growth, urbanization and rising incomes are likely to continue to put pressure on food demand. International prices for most agricultural commodities are set to remain at 2010 levels or higher, at least for the next decade (OECD-FAO, 2010). Small-scale producers in many developing countries were not able to reap the benefits of high food prices during the 2007-2008 food price crises. Yet, this upward food price trend could have been an opportunity for them to increase their incomes and food security. The opportunity that high food prices could have provided as a pat ...
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Food Security: Near future projections of the impact of drought in Asia
This analysis suggests that climate change will affect us all sooner than we expected. The aim of the report is to encourage further debate and instigate action among policy makers and business leaders.
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Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania
The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide mo ...
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Climate Change and Price Volatility: Can We Count on the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve?
ADB, 2012On 12 July 2012, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Plus Three intergovernmental agreement establishing the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) entered into force. In this paper, lead author Roehlano Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, assesses the effectiveness of APTERR as a mechanism for addressing food security in light of the rising challenges of climate change and price volatility. Using Riceflow, a model of the global rice economy, he studies the possible impacts of APTERR releases on the rice market by simu ...
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Noragric Report, 66. Management for adaptation to climate change : Mid-term review of a project implemented by Total Land Care, Malawi
The Management for Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) project in Malawi is implemented by Total Land Care (TLC) with funding from the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Malawi and a 5 years time frame from 2008 to mid 2013. The key objectives of the project are to reduce deforestation, to improve household food security and incomes, and to develop rural-based enterprises. The review team found the project in line with Malawian as well as Norwegian development policy. TLC also has an extensive and good cooperation with Malawian NGOs as well as with international organisations, both in Malawi and abroa ...
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Food security and climate change: a report by the high level panel of experts on food security and nutrition of the committee on world food security
FAO, 2012This report analyses the connected problem of food security and climate change. It observes that a social vulnerability lens is essential to understand why certain individuals, households or communities experience differences in food insecurity risks, even when they are in the same geographic region. Examples of strategies for community-based adaptation include improving water management practices, adopting practices to conserving soil moisture, organic matter and nutrients, and setting up community-based seeds and grain banks. The report includes the following recommendations: integrate food ...
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