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CAWCR technical report, 40. Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Charles Andrew; Hendon Harry H.; Wang Q.J.; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information ab ...Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
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Available online: https://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_040.pdf
Andrew Charles ; Harry H. Hendon ; Q.J. Wang ; David Robertson ; Eun-Pa Lim
Published by: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ; 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information about its past performance. Several distinct methods for calibrating seasonal rainfall forecasts for South Eastern Australia derived from the POAMA 1.5 ensemble are compared for accuracy and reliability in order to assess their suitability for application to real-time seasonal forecasts. The calibration methods investigated were: a variance inflation method (IOV); a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) calibration technique; and a singular vector regression technique (SVD) based on co-varying patterns of model and observed rainfall. Calibration was carried out for model grid points in the Murray Darling region. Assessment was carried out using a mix of standard skill scores widely used in operational forecasting. It was found that the BJP method resulted in the best correction to forecast reliability while IOV improved reliability only modestly and the SVD scheme had a negative impact on reliability. Further study of the application of these methods to real-time forecasts is recommended.
Collection(s) and Series: CAWCR technical report- No. 40
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy (ill., charts)ISBN (or other code): 978-1-921826-58-0
Tags: Water ; Hydrological forecast ; Precipitation forecasting ; Ocean-atmosphere interaction ; Numerical weather prediction ; Sea ice ; Australia
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Sea Ice and Products and Services of the National Ice Center
This two-hour module examines sea ice, icebergs, and the products and services of the National Ice Center and the North American Ice Service. Topics include climatology and current trends in sea ice extent and thickness; the development, classification, and drift of sea ice and icebergs; fractures, leads and polynyas; and the satellite detection of sea ice using visible, infrared, and microwave sensors.
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=759
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2011
This two-hour module examines sea ice, icebergs, and the products and services of the National Ice Center and the North American Ice Service. Topics include climatology and current trends in sea ice extent and thickness; the development, classification, and drift of sea ice and icebergs; fractures, leads and polynyas; and the satellite detection of sea ice using visible, infrared, and microwave sensors.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Sea ice ; Marine meteorology ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Antarctica ; Arctic ; Marine Weather Forecasters
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Coastal Climate Change
As climate changes, dynamic coastal regions are experiencing a wide range of impacts. Sea levels, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat, and ocean circulation have all been changing in ways unseen for thousands of years. Arctic sea ice melted significantly more during summers in the last 30 years, and storms are intensifying. Coastal ecosystems stand to be damaged, and coasts will likely erode from rising sea levels, intensified storm surges, and flooding that climate change may amplify. Coastal communities will need to prepare adaptation strategies to cope, and many who li ...
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=772
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2011
As climate changes, dynamic coastal regions are experiencing a wide range of impacts. Sea levels, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat, and ocean circulation have all been changing in ways unseen for thousands of years. Arctic sea ice melted significantly more during summers in the last 30 years, and storms are intensifying. Coastal ecosystems stand to be damaged, and coasts will likely erode from rising sea levels, intensified storm surges, and flooding that climate change may amplify. Coastal communities will need to prepare adaptation strategies to cope, and many who live or work in coastal regions are wondering what climate change might mean for them. This module provides an overview of the impacts coastal regions are experiencing and may continue to experience as a result of Earth’s changing climate. A video series within the module demonstrates effective strategies for communicating climate science.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Climate change ; Adaptation ; Global warming ; Water management ; Storm surge ; Sea ice ; Erosion ; Climate services ; Fisheries ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Competencies for Provision of Climate Services
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An Arctic Sea Ice Simulation Using an Ocean-Ice Coupled Model
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 4. Sun Hong-Chuan; Zhou Guang-Qing - Science Press, 2010This paper evaluates the simulation of Arctic sea ice states using an ocean-ice coupled model that employs LASG/IAP (the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/ the Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate Ocean Model (LICOM) and the sea-ice model from the Bergen Climate Model (BCM). It is shown that the coupled model can reasonably reproduce the major characteristics of the mean state, annual cycle, and inter-annual variability of the Arctic sea ice concentration. The coupled model also shows biases that were generally pre-sented in ...[article]
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Available online: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=AOSL10046
in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters > Volume 3 Number 4 (16 July 2010) . - p.219-223This paper evaluates the simulation of Arctic sea ice states using an ocean-ice coupled model that employs LASG/IAP (the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/ the Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate Ocean Model (LICOM) and the sea-ice model from the Bergen Climate Model (BCM). It is shown that the coupled model can reasonably reproduce the major characteristics of the mean state, annual cycle, and inter-annual variability of the Arctic sea ice concentration. The coupled model also shows biases that were generally pre-sented in other models, such as the underestimation of summer sea ice concentration and thickness as well as the unsatisfactory sea ice velocity. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the insufficient performance of the ocean model at high latitudes may be the main reason for the biases in the coupled model. The smoother and the fake “island”, which had to be used due to the model’s grid in the North Pole region, likely caused the ocean model’s weak performance. Sea ice model thermodynamics are also responsible for the sea ice simulation biases. There-fore, both the thermodynamic module of the sea ice com-ponent and the model grid of the ocean component need to be further improved.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyTags: Arctic ; Sea ice ; Glaciology ; Oceans ; Climate simulation
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A Forecaster's Overview of the Northwest Pacific
This module provides an introduction to the northwest Pacific for weather forecasters. It touches on major aspects of the geography, oceanography, and climatology. Geography looks at plate tectonics, topography, and human population. Oceanography examines ocean currents, coastal tidal ranges, and sea ice distribution. Climatology briefly discusses jets streams, distribution of synoptic features, storm tracks of tropical and extratropical cyclones, the fronts, and sensible weather associated with the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons.
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=569
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2010
This module provides an introduction to the northwest Pacific for weather forecasters. It touches on major aspects of the geography, oceanography, and climatology. Geography looks at plate tectonics, topography, and human population. Oceanography examines ocean currents, coastal tidal ranges, and sea ice distribution. Climatology briefly discusses jets streams, distribution of synoptic features, storm tracks of tropical and extratropical cyclones, the fronts, and sensible weather associated with the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Tropical cyclone ; Marine meteorology ; Climate services ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Climatology ; Monsoon ; Sea ice ; Extratropical cyclone ; Competencies for Provision of Climate Services ; Marine Weather Forecasters ; China ; Japan ; Yellow Sea
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JCOMM Technical Report, 23. SIGRID-3 :a vector archive format for sea ice charts
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Ice Charting Working Group's Ad Hoc Format Team for the WMO Global Digital Sea Ice Data Bank Project - WMO, 2010 (revised edition; WMO/TD-No. 1214)This document describes the SIGRID-3 format so that it may be understood by a variety of users and implemented by chart-producing ice centers or services. SIGRID-3 evolved from earlier SIGRID formats and incorporates much of their content (see Appendix 1 for notes on earlier SIGRID formats and their application in SIGRID-3). For example, SIGRID variable identifiers such as “CT” for total concentration are used in SIGRID-3. While all SIGRID variable identifiers may be used in SIGRID-3, those that are commonly used are required, such as concentration, stage of development, and form. Users famili ...Permalink![]()
Jason-2: Using Satellite Altimetry to Monitor the Ocean
Altimeters onboard satellites such as Jason-2 measure sea surface height and other characteristics of the ocean surface. These characteristics are linked to underlying processes and structures, making altimetry data useful for understanding the full depth of the global ocean. This 75-minute module explores major discoveries made possible by altimetry data in oceanography, marine meteorology, the marine geosciences, climate studies, the cryosphere, and hydrology. For example, altimeters have played a vital role in detecting and monitoring sea level rise and its relation to climate change. The m ...Permalink![]()
56 - November 2008 - Estimation of the Future Distribution of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Using the CMIP3 Multi-model Ensemble Mean
is an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Mizuta Ryo; Adachi Yukimasa; Yukimoto Seiji; et al. - Meteorological Research Institute, 2008Permalink![]()
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Sea-Ice information services in the world
Part I contains a description of sea ice, methods of observation and the basis of ice information services.
Part II lists the sea-ice information services of 17 countries according to region, describing organization, data acquisition, output products and forecasts, and giving details of publications and postal addresses.Permalink![]()
WCRP Informal/Series Report, 9/2003. Summary report of a Joint meeting of the International workshop on sea-ice extent and the global climate system and the Mini-conference on long-term variability of the Barents sea region
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2003Permalink![]()
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IACPO Informal Report, 07. Arctic Climate System Study, Climate and cryosphere - Recent variations in Arctic sea-ice thickness : report to the Arctic oceam sciences board
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); International Council for Science (ICSU) - WMO, 2002Permalink![]()
WCRP Informal/Series Report, 6/2000. Summary report of an ACSYS Meeting on data and data management in support of sea-ice/ocean modelling
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2000Permalink![]()
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Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS): joint report of the fourth session of the ACSYS Sea ICE/Ocean Modelling (SIOM) Panel and the ACSYS Workshop on Sea Ice Thickness Measurements and Data Analysis
Lemke P.; Colony R.; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); et al. - WMO, 2000 (WMO/TD-No. 991)Permalink![]()
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JCOMM Technical Report, 07. Proceedings of a Workshop on Mapping and Archiving of Sea Ice Data - the Expanding Role of Radar
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2000 (WMO/TD-No. 1027)Permalink![]()
WCRP Informal/Series Report, 11/2000. Report of the first session of the ACSYS Numerical experimentation group
Lemke P.; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); et al. - WMO, 2000Permalink