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Regions and countries > Region VI - Europe > United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2016
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The forecasts are produced daily at 08:00 UTC with a validity of 24 hours. Hourly Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) are used to verify the forecast. The forecast accuracy and skill is determined using Hit Rate (HR), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Frequency Bias (FBI), and Critical Success Index (CSI) evaluated from a 2-category contingency table. Significance of the forecast error is evaluated using a student’s t-test for difference in means at 0.05 significance level. The HR and CSI for the original forecast for all the three stations, Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley was below 20%. Upon adjusting the forecast using regression analysis, the HR and CSI for Heathrow improved to 53.7% and 40.8% respectively. The HR and CSI for Northolt improved to 27.4% and 24.2% respectively. The improvement for Kenley was insignificant since the HR and CSI slightly improved to values below 10%. Although this method is purely statistical hence do not involve physical dynamics that dictate fog formation, maintenance and dissipation, in absence of a dynamical methods that can be applied to improve the accuracy and skill of visibility forecast within fog range then regression methods used in this study is a better option especially for Heathrow airport.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (kizitoamua(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: DigitalTags: Fog ; Weather forecasting ; Research ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Reflections on the current debate on how to link flood insurance and disaster risk reduction in the European Union
This paper investigates if and how current EU policies influence flood insurance. While the question of supply and demand is at the core of the debate, the authors argue that another key dimension is often overlooked: how to use insurance as a lever for risk reduction and prevention efforts.Reflections on the current debate on how to link flood insurance and disaster risk reduction in the European Union
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Available online: http://preventionweb.net/go/46416
Published by: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; 2015
This paper investigates if and how current EU policies influence flood insurance. While the question of supply and demand is at the core of the debate, the authors argue that another key dimension is often overlooked: how to use insurance as a lever for risk reduction and prevention efforts.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Disaster Risk Management (DRM) ; Flood ; Region VI - Europe ; Netherlands ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Managing flood and coastal erosion risk : April 2014 to March 2015
The report describes the extensive work undertaken by all risk management authorities to (i) manage the risks from flooding and coastal erosion, (ii) achieve the objectives of the National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) Strategy for England, (iii) plan for future flood and coastal erosion risk. It also reports how lead local flood authorities have progressed on their local strategies and asset registers.
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Available online: http://preventionweb.net/go/45211
Published by: United Kingdom Government ; 2015
The report describes the extensive work undertaken by all risk management authorities to (i) manage the risks from flooding and coastal erosion, (ii) achieve the objectives of the National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) Strategy for England, (iii) plan for future flood and coastal erosion risk. It also reports how lead local flood authorities have progressed on their local strategies and asset registers.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Disaster Risk Management (DRM) ; Flood ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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Resilience to extreme weather
The Royal Society, 2014This document investigates how we can reduce the impact of extreme weather today while preparing ourselves for future changes, and what we can do to build our resilience. The authors explore these and other key questions to help inform important decisions about adaptation and risk reduction that are being made at global, national and local levels.
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Available online: https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/projects/resilience-climate-change/resil [...]
Published by: The Royal Society ; 2014
This document investigates how we can reduce the impact of extreme weather today while preparing ourselves for future changes, and what we can do to build our resilience. The authors explore these and other key questions to help inform important decisions about adaptation and risk reduction that are being made at global, national and local levels.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Extreme weather event ; Disaster prevention and preparedness ; Case/ Case study ; India ; Niger ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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How well do flood emergency plans meet management needs?
Science for Environment Policy, Issue 40. EEA, 2013The importance of comprehensive flood emergency plans is becoming increasingly recognised. A new study has evaluated plans in England and Wales, France and the Netherlands. It was found that, although plans perform well in terms of organisation and communication, they are lacking in more technical aspects, such as the provision of flood hazard maps and evacuation plans.[article]
in Science for Environment Policy > Issue 40 (19 June 2013) . - 1 p.The importance of comprehensive flood emergency plans is becoming increasingly recognised. A new study has evaluated plans in England and Wales, France and the Netherlands. It was found that, although plans perform well in terms of organisation and communication, they are lacking in more technical aspects, such as the provision of flood hazard maps and evacuation plans.
Language(s): English
Format: DigitalTags: Natural hazards ; Flood ; Case/ Case study ; Disaster management ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ; France ; Netherlands ; Region VI - Europe
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A European scale assessment of river flood risk
Science for Environment Policy, Issue 40. EEA, 2013Researchers have created a simple tool to analyse the risk of river flooding across almost all of Europe, and to estimate the associated economic losses. They found that Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Austria and the UK are the regions and countries most at threat.Permalink![]()
Zero carbon Britain: rethinking the future
This report explores how Britain can achieve Carbon neutrality. Building upon the groundwork laid by the Zero Carbon Britain project over the last six years, the authors incorporate the latest developments in science and technology, plus more detailed research in two main areas: balancing highly variable energy supply and demand; and the nutritional implications of a low carbon diet. The report highlights the need for further research on adaptation, economic transition and policy that would achieve sufficient greenhouse gas emissions reductions quickly and equitably. From a broader viewpoint, ...Permalink![]()
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The Effectiveness of flood management
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM); Sayers and Partners - Test Publisher, 2013This case study, which is a part of wider scope Tool “Effectiveness of Flood Management,” summarizes flood management approaches and policies adopted in England. The study introduces the national framework of flood management policies and the roles of flood related organizations. For better and efficient management, England has been taking a risk based approach to flood management for years, including systematic benefit cost analysis and project appraisal. Adaptive approach to cope with emerging climate change issues is also becoming a mainstream management strategy.Permalink![]()
Securing the future availability and affordability of home insurance in areas of flood risk
This consultation seeks the Government of the United Kingdom's views on proposals for securing the availability and affordability of flood insurance in areas of flood risk. The consultation is divided into ten sections: (i) section one introduces the geographical extent covered by the document and the purpose of the consultation; (ii) section two describes the background of flood risk in the UK, current availabilities of insurance, and the government's objectives in creating flood insurance policy for the UK; (iii) section three explains the current actions taken by the UK Government toward in ...Permalink![]()
Flood risk management in Europe: similarities and differences between the STAR-FLOOD consortium countries
Utrecht University, 2013This report highlights the main similarities and differences between flood risk management strategies (FRMSs) and flood risk governance arrangements (FRGAs) in the 6 STAR-FLOOD consortium countries: the UK, Belgium, France, The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. The report derives 8 themes which relate to the differences discovered between the countries: (i) the countries’ baseline situation in terms of their actual flood experiences; (ii) designated competent authorities and the actual competences that actors have for implementing flood risk management strategies; (iii) resources for flood risk ...Permalink![]()
Flood risk management in Europe: the flood problem and interventions
Utrecht University, 2013This report investigates the nature of the flood risk problem and the path to flood risk governance in 18 vulnerable urban regions in 6 European countries: the UK, Belgium, France, The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. The report summarizes current thinking on the nature of the flood problem, the intended objectives, and the appropriate courses of action.
This report is the first in a series of four which were compiled by the STAR-FLOOD project.Permalink![]()
National adaptation programme: making the country resilient to a changing climate
This report shows what the government of the United Kingdom is doing to support action and share its expertise in areas such as weather forecasting, flood modelling, infrastructure and insurance as the world's climate changes and Britain faces extreme weather events.Permalink![]()
United Kingdom peer review report 2013 - Building resilience to disasters: implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015)
UN/ISDR, 2013This report presents the first peer review undertaken to assess progress in the implementation at national level of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA), under which Member States of the United Nations have committed to policy action. It aims to: 1) establish state-of-the-art approaches to each of the HFA Priorities for Action; 2) identify good practices and shortcomings/areas needing improvement; and 3) develop recommendations to achieve further progress.Permalink![]()
Climate legislation study: a review of climate change legislation in 33 countries
CDKN, 2013This review of climate change legislation in 33 countries shows that developing countries are leading action on climate change. Overall, there has been significant progress in the climate and/or energy-related legislation of almost all major economies, but a great amount of the 2012 effort took place in emerging countries. In particular, among major economies Mexico and China are leading the action against climate change thanks to their recent steps to cut carbon emissions and raise energy efficiency. The study aims to support legislators advancing climate-related legislation by providing deta ...Permalink![]()
Homeowners guide to flood resilience
RAB Consultants, Ltd., 2013This study addresses the recognised gap between what climate science can currently provide and what end users of that information require in order to make robust adaptation decisions about their climate related risks. It identifies five key contributing factors to the gap: (i) uncertainty in climate science; (ii) cognitive bias and challenges of interdisciplinary research; (iii) (mis)understanding and (mis)use of key terminology; (iv) communication (or lack of); and (v) non-climatic influences.
The study aims to bridge this gap between end user needs and science capability by b ...Permalink