Published by: World Bank ; 2014
Format: Digital (Free)ECMWF, 2013Published by: ECMWF ; 2013
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyis an issue of Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Meteorological Society of Japan, 2012[number or issue]
Vol. 90A - February 2012 - Special issue on recent development on climate models and future climate projections
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy[number or issue]is an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Yukimoto Seiji; Yoshimura H.; Hosaka Masahiro - Meteorological Research Institute, 2012[number or issue]
64 - March 2011 - Meteorological Research Institute-Earth System Model Version 1 (MRI-ESM1) -Model Description
Language(s): English, Japanese
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy[number or issue]Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is the major prerequisite of agricultural productivity in the region and its variability severely affects the livelihoods of a large share of the world’s population. While average ISM rainfall has been relatively stable during the past century, rising trends have been observed in the annual number of extreme rain events. This study shows severe failure of ISM rainfall is possible but unlikely under present climatic conditions, according to a comprehensive climate model. However, monsoon failure is projected to become much more frequent over the next 200 yea ...Published by: IOPscience ; 2012
Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is the major prerequisite of agricultural productivity in the region and its variability severely affects the livelihoods of a large share of the world’s population. While average ISM rainfall has been relatively stable during the past century, rising trends have been observed in the annual number of extreme rain events. This study shows severe failure of ISM rainfall is possible but unlikely under present climatic conditions, according to a comprehensive climate model. However, monsoon failure is projected to become much more frequent over the next 200 years as a result of global warming. The climate model presented in the paper provides a simple dynamical explanation for future changes in the frequency distribution of seasonal mean all-Indian rainfall. The approach offers an alternative perspective on large-scale monsoon variability as the result of internal instabilities modulated by pre-seasonal ambient climate conditions.
Format: Digital (Free)The Eighth JCOMM-TCP Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (SSW-8) was held at the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR), Nairobi, Kenya, from 19 to 23 November 2012.
This series of workshop is co-organized by the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) and the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP), with a view to enhancing capacities of the National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NMHSs) in providing necessary forecasting and warning services against natural marine hazards that complement b ...PermalinkОперативное прогнозирование климата завоевывает позиции в качестве самой современной, активно развивающейся области климатического обслуживания для финансового сектора.PermalinkLos planificadores nacionales están buscando inversores privados que contribuyan a financiar los planes de desarrollo basados en unas bajas emisiones de carbono.PermalinkPermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Um J.; McFarquhar G.M. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The projections of small ice crystals (with maximum dimensionPermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Huang M.; Carmichael Gregory R.; Spak S.N.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Chronic high surface ozone (O3) levels and the increasing sulfur oxides (SOx = SO2+SO4) ambient concentrations over South Coast (SC) and other areas of California (CA) are affected by both local emissions and long-range transport. In this paper, multi-scale tracer, full-chemistry and adjoint simulations using the STEM atmospheric chemistry model are conducted to assess the contribution of local emission sourcesto SC O3 and to evaluate the impacts of transported sulfur and local emissions on the SC sulfur budgetduring the ARCTAS-CARB experiment period in 2008. Sensitivity simulations quantify c ...PermalinkThis study compares the properties of atmospheric dust from the Saharan deserts and the Asian deserts using data from CALIPSO and AERONET during 2006 and 2007 along with simulations using a coupled climate-microphysical sectional model. Saharan deserts are largely south of 30° N, while Asian ones are primarily north of 30° N, hence they experience different meteorological regimes. Saharan dust lifting occurs all year long, primarily due to subtropical weather systems. However, Asian dust is lifted mostly in spring when mid-latitude frontal systems lead to high winds. Rainfall is more abundant ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Feng L.; Palmer P.I.; Yang Y.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011We evaluate the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model (v8-02-01) of CO2 over 2003–2006, driven by GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorology from the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, using surface, aircraft and space-borne concentration measurements of CO2. We use an established ensemble Kalman Filter to estimate a posteriori biospheric+biomass burning (BS + BB) and oceanic (OC) CO2 fluxes from 22 geographical regions, following the TransCom-3 protocol, using boundary layer CO2 data from a subset of GLOBALVIEW surface sites. Global annual net BS + BB + OC CO2 fluxes over 2004–2006 for ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Flagg D.D.; Taylor P.A. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada)) during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forec ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Russo M.R.; Marécal V.; Hoyle C.R.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal c ...PermalinkIn this report we assess forecasts from Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) in comparison to international dynamical coupled model forecast systems, which are archived as part of the ENSEMBLES project. We investigate how universal the lack of reliability is in dynamical forecasts of regional rainfall, in order to highlight any potential for improvement of the POAMA system. The systems assessed in this report show that overconfidence and lack of reliability for regional rainfall forecasts is a common problem. Due to the clear need for improved reliability and more accurate s ...PermalinkIn this report we evaluate the state-of-art knowledge and uncertainties regarding the deposition of dust on the ocean and its mineralogical composition provided by models and measurement datasets. Global climate models were recently intercompared by Huneeus et al. (2011) using results from the AEROCOM model intercomparison. The deposition calculations from these global models are frequently used as input for biological productivity calculations. A model measurement comparison (Huneeus, 2011) shows that global models do reproduce the observed data over several orders of magnitude. However, the ...PermalinkThis report presents an almost complete collection of extended abstracts of the oral and poster presentations of the second workshop on tropospheric ozone changes. For some presentations no extended abstract is included as their content has already been published in peer reviewed literature or manuscripts are under preparation. A summary of this workshop has been submitted as a newsletter article of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project (IGAC, 2011). The original workshop presentations are available from the meeting web site atPermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; ANAMS ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - WMO, 2011Severe weather events in West Africa are associated mainly with meso-scale thunderstorms and squall lines. Forecasting such severe weather to reduce the risk of hazards is one of the challenges faced by many met services. However, the recent progress in the area of numerical weather prediction has enabled some countries to forecast these events in a better way.
Due to lack of capacity, many of the West African countries were not able to use numerical weather prediction systems effectively in their day to day forecasting activities. The CPC/African Desk has been playing big role in buil ...PermalinkIn this section we provide a more in-depth look at the role trees play in the provision of goods and services in multifunctional landscapes. Tree growth is, however, vulnerable to climate variability, depending on the physiological properties of the tree and characteristics of the site. A further quantification of climate variability and climate change is needed to advise on what types of trees can be grown where, to be ready for the likely local climate-change during their lifetime. This leads to a discussion of the two-way relationship between climate change adaptation and rewards for enviro ...PermalinkSpringer-Verlag GmbH, 2011The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances.
As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future.
But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a ...PermalinkThis paper constructs an integrated assessment model of tropical cyclones in order to quantify the impact that climate change may have on tropical cyclone damages in countries around the world. The paper relies on a tropical cyclone generator in each ocean and several climate models to predict tropical cyclones with and without climate change. A damage model is constructed to compute the resulting damage when a cyclone strikes each country. Economic development is expected to double global tropical cyclone damages because more will be in harm's way. Climate change is expected to double global ...PermalinkEEA, 2011This technical reference guide provides a general overview of the use of models with regard to the consolidated Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe (the AQ Directive). This report is an output of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (Fairmode) established in 2008 as a joint action of the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC).PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 6. Wang Li-Li; Wang Yue-Si; Li Yuan-Yuan - Science Press, 2010An automated procedure employing principal-component analysis and a two-stage cluster analysis was developed to classify the synoptic meteorological conditions prevailing over Urumqi, one of the most heavily polluted cities in the world. Six clusters representing different circulation patterns and air-mass characteristics were classified using surface- and upper-meteorological variables during the heating period from 2001 to 2008, and the relationships between synoptic clusters and air quality were evaluated. The heaviest air-pollution episodes occurred when Urumqi was in either an extremely c ...PermalinkJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.88 No.5. Kobayashi Eriko; Uchiyama Akihiro; Yamazaki Akihiro; et al. - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010The Skyrad software package (SKYRAD.pack), which is used to analyze sky radiometer data, utilizes aerosol retrieval algorithms that are based on the Mie theory. In modeling the optical properties of dust-like aerosols, however, it is necessary to account for particle nonsphericity. We applied aerosol retrieval algorithms based on the spheroid model to SKYRAD.pack. We tested the model using simulated data from aerosol models and verified that dust-like aerosol optical properties can be accurately retrieved using the spheroid model. Moreover, we analyzed sky radiometer data collected in Tsukuba, ...PermalinkJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.88 No.5. Ma Lei-Ming; Tan Zhe-Min - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010A new scheme, termed Vortex Initialization with the Assimilation of Retrieved Variables (VIRV), is presented to improve the initialization of regional numerical model for Tropical Cyclone (TC) prediction. In this scheme, the horizontal winds in Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and the sea level pressure (SLP), retrieved from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data obtained using a modified University of Washington Planetary Boundary Layer (UWPBL) model, are assimilated with a cycled three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique to produce the initialized analysis. The procedures of retrieval are i ...PermalinkJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.88 No.5. Kitamura Yuji - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010To solve the problems of the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) model, we attempted to modify it by following the method proposed by Canuto et al. (2008) for the stable stratification case. In contrast to the original MYNN model, the modified model has no critical Richardson number, and the effect of turbulent motions remains for all Richardson number values in the level 2 model. Furthermore, the modified model possesses an advantage even for the level 2.5 and level 3 models. The flux Richardson number is unbounded, and a lower limit of the turbulent kinetic energy must be imposed in the ori ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 4. Zhao De-Ming; Fu Cong-Bin - Science Press, 2010Regional climate models (RCMs) can provide far more precise information than general circulation models (GCMs). However, RCMs depend on GCM results for re-analysis products providing boundary conditions, especially for future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, the capacity of RCMs to reproduce precipitation is strongly connected to its performance on circulation and moisture transport simulations in the low troposphere, which is the key problem with RCMs at present. In the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia (RMIP III), the results of ECHAM5/MPI-OM (the European Centre-Ham ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 4. Yu Lei; Gao Yong-Qi; Helge Drange; et al. - Science Press, 2010It has been reported recently that the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) using the coupled Bergen climate model (BCM) showed initial intensity declines followed by gradual recoveries over a 150-year enhanced freshwater input experiment. Stratification-dependent oceanic diapycnal mixing has been hypothesized as a reason for the simulated recovery of the AMOC. This study investigated the role of diapycnal mixing in transient responses of simulated AMOCs. Our results showed that stratification-dependent diapycnal mixing can cause stronger upwelling of deep water in the ...PermalinkIntroduction: Model verification is an essential part of a Weather Prediction system. It is a helpful knowledge to enhance the forecaster’s assessment in Weather bulletin production. The aim of this study is to compare the global Forecast system (GFS) model rainfall prediction accumulated for 24 hours and averaged over October, November and December 2008 with the African Rain Fall Estimate (RFE 2.0) (Love et al.,2002) over DRCongo and the neighboring areas (from 15S to 6N latitudes and from 10E to 32E longitudes) fig.0.Permalinkis an issue of Exchanges. International CLIVAR Project Office, 2008Permalinkis an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Mizuta Ryo; Adachi Yukimasa; Yukimoto Seiji; et al. - Meteorological Research Institute, 2008PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Levizzani Vincenzo; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO); et al. - WMO, 2008 (WMO/TD-No. 1430)This report is a synthesis of the current state of knowledge in measurements of global precipitation, a major component of the global water and energy cycle that influences significantly the Earth’s climate system, and in turn is affected by the climate system variability and change. It is a comprehensive assessment of the current global precipitation data records which have been assembled by combining observations from space-based and in situ measurements. These long-term records include observations over the land and oceans for a period of 25 years. The report describes in detail how these p ...PermalinkThe publications and material presented in this thesis describe a series of scientific investigations on catchment modelling in relation to water resources management. Each of the 15 publications represents parts of the overall topic ranging from development of new concepts and model codes to model applications; from point scale to catchment scale; from flow modelling to transport and reactive modelling; from planning type applications to real-time forecasting and further on to crosscutting issues and protocols for the modelling process.PermalinkImproved seasonal prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the global oceans is the theme of this paper. Using 13 state-of-the-art coupled global atmosphere-ocean models and 13 yr of seasonal forecasts, the performance of individual models, the ensemble mean, the bias-removed ensemble mean, and the Florida State University (FSU) superensemble are compared. A total of 23 400 seasonal forecasts based on 1-month lead times were available for this study. Evaluation metrics include both deterministic and probabilistic skill measures, such as verification of anomalies based on mode ...PermalinkClimate variations in the Caribbean, largely manifest in rainfall activity, have important consequences for the large-scale water budget, natural vegetation, and land use in the region. The wet and dry seasons will be defined, and the important roles played by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in modulating the rainfall during these seasons will be discussed. The seasonal climate forecasts in this paper are made by 13 state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) and by the Florida State University Synthetic Superens ...PermalinkIn the last thirty years great strides have been made by large-scale operational numerical weather prediction models towards improving skills for the medium range time-scale of 7 days. This paper illustrates the use of these current forecasts towards the construction of a consensus multimodel forecast product called the superensemble. This procedure utilizes 120 of the recent-past forecasts from these models to arrive at the training phase statistics. These statistics are described by roughly 107 weights. Use of these weights provides the possibility for real-time medium range forecasts with t ...PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation - WMO, 2005 (WMO/TD-No. 1276)PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation - WMO, 2004 (WMO/TD-No. 1220)PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Crookshank N.L.; Willis D.H. - WMO, 2004 (WMO/TD-No. 1247)PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation - WMO, 2003 (WMO/TD-No. 1161)Permalink
PermalinkPermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation - WMO, 2002 (WMO/TD-No. 1105)PermalinkLettenmaier D.P.; Bowling L.C.; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); et al. - WMO, 2001PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2000PermalinkPermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation - WMO, 2000 (WMO/TD-No. 987)PermalinkLemke P.; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); et al. - WMO, 2000PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 1999Permalink