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Climate change and conflict: findings and lessons learned from five case studies in seven countries
This report distills the main findings of five case studies, with the goal of emphasizing key institutions and the interactions of non-climate and climate factors in each country or city. The case studies focused on four basic research questions: 1. Does (or could) climate change/variability contribute to the conditions for organized, political violence? 2. Does climate change/variability contribute to circumstances with high-conflict potential linked to the access and use of natural (or economic) resources by specific livelihood groups, identity groups, or urban dwellers? If so, how and why? ...
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Available online: http://www.fess-global.org/Publications/Other/FESS%20Final%20Synthesis%20Paper_F [...]
Jeffrey Stark ; United States Agency for International Development
Published by: USAID ; 2014This report distills the main findings of five case studies, with the goal of emphasizing key institutions and the interactions of non-climate and climate factors in each country or city. The case studies focused on four basic research questions: 1. Does (or could) climate change/variability contribute to the conditions for organized, political violence? 2. Does climate change/variability contribute to circumstances with high-conflict potential linked to the access and use of natural (or economic) resources by specific livelihood groups, identity groups, or urban dwellers? If so, how and why? 3. What is the relationship of either of these with resilience? 4. What are possible programmatic options or approaches to enable USAID (or others) to invest more effectively in programs or initiatives to build resilience and prevent or mitigate conflict?
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Climate change ; Example/ Good practice ; Conflict ; Case/ Case study ; Uganda ; Ethiopia ; Peru ; Niger ; Burkina Faso ; Nigeria ; Ghana
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Policy Research Working Paper, 6916. Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability
World Bank, 2014Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mecha ...Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability
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Available online: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/06/1 [...]
Published by: World Bank ; 2014
Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and institutional features provide better opportunities for mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001 with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others.
Collection(s) and Series: Policy Research Working Paper- No. 6916
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Water ; Climate change ; Conflict
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Rising tempers, rising temperatures: a look at climate change, migration and conflict and the implications for youth in the Sahel region
This paper investigates the causal chain between climate change, migration and conflict in the context of the Sahel region, with special focus on implications for the youth cohort living in the most vulnerable rural areas, and concludes with policy recommendations aimed at mitigation of the effects of climate variability and prevention of youth engagement in climate change effects-related conflict and crime.Rising tempers, rising temperatures: a look at climate change, migration and conflict and the implications for youth in the Sahel region
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Available online: http://www.tdrp.net/PDFs/TDRP_RisingTempersRisingTemperaturesSahel.pdf
Erik Alda ; Transitional Demobilization and Reintegration Program
Published by: World Bank ; 2014This paper investigates the causal chain between climate change, migration and conflict in the context of the Sahel region, with special focus on implications for the youth cohort living in the most vulnerable rural areas, and concludes with policy recommendations aimed at mitigation of the effects of climate variability and prevention of youth engagement in climate change effects-related conflict and crime.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Climate change ; Vulnerability ; Conflict ; Impact studies ; Region I - Africa ; Sahel
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Conflict management and disaster risk reduction: a case study of Kenya
2013This report explores the links between disaster risk reduction and conflict prevention, with a specific focus on Kenya. The overall objective is to develop a livelihoods approach to understanding and reducing the risk of households and communities who have been, or are likely to be, affected by disasters. Conflict is linked to livelihoods through both cause and effect pathways, but the linkages between conflict mitigation and disaster risk reduction at the level of policy and program are limited. This study seeks to understand those linkages at the community level, and strengthen the policy co ...
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Available online: http://preventionweb.net/go/34827
United States Agency for International Development ; Feinstein International Center (FIC)
This report explores the links between disaster risk reduction and conflict prevention, with a specific focus on Kenya. The overall objective is to develop a livelihoods approach to understanding and reducing the risk of households and communities who have been, or are likely to be, affected by disasters. Conflict is linked to livelihoods through both cause and effect pathways, but the linkages between conflict mitigation and disaster risk reduction at the level of policy and program are limited. This study seeks to understand those linkages at the community level, and strengthen the policy connections.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) ; Conflict ; Kenya
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Climate change, water conflicts and human security
UNU, 2013This report presents a comprehensive regional assessment of the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Sahel in terms of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, conflict/cooperation and human security at various scales and in a variety of contexts. The Climate Change, Hydro Conflicts and Human Security (CLICO) project builds on interdisciplinary and cross-comparative research covering a variety of geographical scales and historical contexts to unravel social, political, environmental/ ecological and economic conditions in relation to the environment.
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Available online: https://www.ecologic.eu/9961
United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security
Published by: UNU ; 2013This report presents a comprehensive regional assessment of the Mediterranean, Middle East, and Sahel in terms of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, conflict/cooperation and human security at various scales and in a variety of contexts. The Climate Change, Hydro Conflicts and Human Security (CLICO) project builds on interdisciplinary and cross-comparative research covering a variety of geographical scales and historical contexts to unravel social, political, environmental/ ecological and economic conditions in relation to the environment.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Climate change ; Water ; Conflict
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Integrating disaster risk management into climate change adaptation
CDKN, 2013The Asian Disaster Preparedness Network have produced this guidebook to serve as a reference for integrating disaster risk management (DRM) into climate change adaptation (CCA), and to promote the adoption of a risk management approach to climate-sensitive decision-making. It guides the reader on how to contribute to CCA by improving the management of climate extremes.
The guidebook briefly describes the context and relationships between climate change and disaster risk, the processes for adaptation, and the perspective and experiences of DRM that can be utilised within and by CCA. It a ...Permalink![]()
Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam
This report is an account of a cross-country study that covered Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Covering four sites (one each in Indonesia and Vietnam) and two sites in the Philippines, the study documented the impacts of three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, as well as autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques, ranging from pa ...Permalink![]()
Strengthening responses to climate variability in South Asia
This executive summary is based on the findings from desk and field research conducted by International Alert and the South Asia Network for Security and Climate Change (SANSaC) in nine sub-national locations across Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The research looks at the root causes of vulnerability and non-adaptation in fragile contexts and at the opportunities for strengthening resilience to combined risks of climate change and conflict. The academic literature on climate change and security is still characterised by the drive to establish or refute direct causality between climate ...Permalink![]()
Climate Change Fuelling Resource-Based Conflicts in the Asia-Pacific
UNDP, 2013This paper aims to present a background to resource-based conflicts and how they may be influenced by climate change in the Asia Pacific region. In so doing, this paper first examines the relationship between security, natural resources, and climate change. Second, this paper looks specifically at this issue in the Asia-Pacific region, presenting case studies from South and West Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific. The paper also presents an appraisal of existing address of this issue and explores options for future action that may underpin peace and security in a climate change context at local ...Permalink![]()
Fragile States 2013: Resource flows and trends in fragile states
By 2015, half of the world’s people living on less than USD 1.25 a day will be in fragile states. While poverty has decreased globally, progress on Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 is slower in fragile states than in other developing countries. Fragile states are also off-track to meet the rest of the MDGs by 2015.
Fragile situations became a central concern of the international development and security agenda in the 1990s. Since then, powerful forces have been influencing the causes and manifestations of fragility, including the combination of democratic aspirations, new te ...Permalink![]()
Climate Security Report
ASP, 2012One of the most significant challenges to the global security system in the 21st Century will be a changing climate; the effects of these changes are already being felt all over the world. Climate change poses a clear and present danger to the United States through its effects on our global allies as well as its direct effects on our agriculture, infrastructure, economy and public health.Permalink![]()
Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009: In PNAS, 22 October 2012
Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate–conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic ...Permalink![]()
Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration
UNESCO, 2012This collection of papers, presented at the symposium ‘Climate change, water stress, conflict and migration’ held on 21 September 2011 in the Netherlands, highlight how climate change, water stress and other environmental problems threaten human security. For example, the paper by Muniruzzaman ilustrates how water ignores political and community boundaries, and how decisions in one place can significantly affect water use elsewhere. India’s plans to build more dams could, for instance, have devastating affects for Pakistan’s agricultural productivity which is highly dependent on water supply f ...Permalink![]()
Mediterranean ecological footprint trends
Global Footprint Network, 2012The Mediterranean’s ever-widening ecological deficit and its economic implications is the main theme of the new Mediterranean Ecological Footprint Trends report, the result of a two-year study by Global Footprint Network and the focus of the conference.Permalink![]()
Climate change, migration and critical international security considerations
There are growing concerns that climate change will lead to large-scale population displacements and migrations in coming decades. Many security scholars worry that these may in turn contribute to violence and conflict in the most vulnerable regions. Are these concerns supported by scientific evidence? And if so, what options are available to concerned policymakers? In response to these and other questions, this report reviews the available scholarly reporting on climate change, migration and security and describes the legal and policy challenges facing the international community.Permalink