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Using Climatology in Forecasting Convection in West and Central Africa
This case-study lesson provides an opportunity to apply the information in the ASMET lesson “Satellite-Derived Climatology Products for Monitoring Convection Over West and Central Africa” to a case that occurred over West and Central Africa in June 2014. It demonstrates how to integrate climatology information with satellite, global instability indices (GII), and NWP data when convection is forecast to occur.
The Sahel Drought Mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. A ...
Interannual variation monthly rainfall from May to August associated with large-scale circulation anomalies over south coast of West Africa
The southern coastal region of West Africa (SCWA) is located between 40N-80N latitudes and 100W -50E longitudes near the equator in the northern Hemisphere, the south and west are respectively equatorial and West Atlantic Ocean, and it is consisted to seven countries (Sierra Leon, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria). The rainy season starts from spring to the summer, mainly from May to October. The rainfall is very important for southern coastal of West Africa region which their economy and food supply are highly dependent on agricultural production. Understanding of previo ...
Satellite-Derived Climatology Products for Monitoring Convection Over West and Central Africa
A weather forecaster’s knowledge of climatology is important to the success of a forecast, especially where convection is involved. That’s particularly true over Central and West Africa where convection has a strong diurnal cycle and usually develops over particular geographic regions and during specific time intervals. The lesson describes satellite-derived cloud climatology products and several global instability indices, all of which can be integrated with other products to forecast convection. Although the lesson uses examples of climatology products from specific months, it makes the full ...
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Migration and natural resource scarcity within the context of climate variability in West Africa
Drawing from research in rural north-western Benin, this policy brief looks at the effect of migration on the in-land fisheries subsector.
It emphasizes the need for effective participation of all stakeholders in the management of natural resources to improve livelihoods in the region facing population growth and climate variability.
The brief highlights that migration – internal and international – is an important feature of the social lives of people across West Africa. While movements within the subregion are generally due to complex and multi-causal factors, n ...
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Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa: In Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6
Copernicus Publications, 2015This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa.
It uses a prototype land use projection (LandPro) algorithm which is based on a balance between food supply and demand, and accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. It considers the impact of human decision-making on land use.
The paper argues that without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease ...
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Climate-resilient development : a framework for understanding and addressing climate change
This framework offers a simple yet robust five-stage approach to help decision-makers and development practitioners at all levels systematically assess climate-related risks and prioritize actions that promote climate-resilient development. Developed by USAID’s Global Climate Change Office, this “development-first” approach helps decision-makers and practitioners integrate climate considerations directly into development activities across multiple sectors, keeping the focus on achieving development goals despite a changing climate. Working with USAID missions, governments, and other stakeholde ...
ASMET 7: Convective Weather and Aviation in West and Central Africa
The hazards associated with convective systems present some of the most dangerous conditions encountered by aircraft and pose many challenges to aviation operations. When convection is forecast to develop, aviation forecasters are required to issue a series of warning messages and other meteorological aeronautical products to various members of the aviation community. This lesson teaches these forecasters how to produce the products, doing so in the context of a case study in which learners assume the role of aeronautical forecaster on duty at the airport in Niamey, Niger on a night when conve ...
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Supporting the vulnerable : Increasing adaptive capacities of agropastoralists to climate change in West and southern Africa using a transdisciplinary research approach
This publication seeks to identify promoted policy entry points to support the implementation of priority adaptation strategies, and identifies policy mechanisms as appropriate interventions to allow agropastoralists to buffer the effects of climate variability and change. The purpose of this project is to co-generate methods, information and solutions between local communities, local and international scientists, policymakers and other actors involved in climate change and adaptation programs, for coping mechanisms and adapting strategies to climate change and variability in West and Southern ...
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Unlocking the power of local knowledge : a novel framework to cost community-based adaptation to climate change
Current approaches to identify the costs and benefits of adaptation are primarily quantitative, using top-down methodologies that may grossly underestimate the true costs. This policy brief argues that global policies require credible evidence from the local level. Given that a single generic adaptation model is unworkable, the policy brief introduces a new analytical costing framework – Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI) – which has been piloted successfully in subsistence farming communities in East and West Africa.
Although the Kenyan example is very specific, the PSRO ...
ASMET: Flooding in West Africa
The rainy season in Sahelian West Africa extends from June to September and is tied to the position of the intertropical front. During this period, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) often produce significant rainfall that can lead to flooding. This module examines an extreme flooding event that occurred in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from 31 August to 1 September 2009. Learners assume the role of forecaster, assessing meteorological conditions to see if an MCS will develop that can lead to heavy rain and flooding. They follow a forecast process that emphasizes the use of satellite data, standa ...
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Agricultural GHGs in East and West Africa baseline emissions and mitigation potential
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from agriculture are substantial. This paper looks into how can agricultural greenhouse gas emissions be reduced or sequestration enhanced while maintaining and even increasing food supply. The paper relies on a research undertaken in nine chosen African countries.
The authors reveal that croplands and grazing lands cover more than half of the East African countries’ lands and about 40% of the West African countries’ lands. In the nine African countries, the largest amount of GHG emissions is from the livestock sector, followed by emissions f ...
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Mesoscale convective systems observed during AMMA and their impact on the NOx and O3 budget over West Africa
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Huntrieser H.; Schlager H.; Lichtenstern M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011During the "African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis" (AMMA) field phase in August 2006, a variety of measurements focusing on deep convection were performed over West Africa. The German research aircraft Falcon based in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) investigated the chemical composition in the outflow of large mesoscale convective systems (MCS). Here we analyse two different types of MCS originating north and south of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ, ~10° N), respectively. In addition to the airborne trace gas measurements, stroke measurements from the Lightning Location Network (LINE ...
Assessement of selected global models in short range forecasting over West Africa: case study of Senegal
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; ANAMS ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - WMO, 2011Severe weather events in West Africa are associated mainly with meso-scale thunderstorms and squall lines. Forecasting such severe weather to reduce the risk of hazards is one of the challenges faced by many met services. However, the recent progress in the area of numerical weather prediction has enabled some countries to forecast these events in a better way.
Due to lack of capacity, many of the West African countries were not able to use numerical weather prediction systems effectively in their day to day forecasting activities. The CPC/African Desk has been playing big role in buil ...
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