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Regional Climate Outlook Forums
A Regional Climate Outlook Forum is a platform that brings together climate experts and sector representatives from countries in a climatologically homogenous region to provide consensus based climate prediction and information, with input from global and regional producing centres and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, with the aim of gaining substantial socio-economic benefits in climate sensitive sectors.
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Available online: Full text
Published by: WMO ; 2016
A Regional Climate Outlook Forum is a platform that brings together climate experts and sector representatives from countries in a climatologically homogenous region to provide consensus based climate prediction and information, with input from global and regional producing centres and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, with the aim of gaining substantial socio-economic benefits in climate sensitive sectors.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Climate prediction ; Socio-economic benefits ; Region I - Africa ; Region II - Asia ; Region III - South America ; Region IV - North America, Central America and the Caribbean ; Region V - South-West Pacific ; Region VI - Europe ; General information publications
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Drought Assessment Using SPEI and NDVI : Case of Lesotho
While drought conditions are generally a common and recurring phenomenon of the climate in Southern Africa especially Lesotho, the frequency of droughts in Lesotho has increased significantly over the past few years. Lesotho has suffered the devastating impacts of drought during the past several decades resulting in poor harvests and large livestock losses to rural farmers. The majority of the population in Lesotho engages with rain- fed agriculture and is dependent to some degree on own production for household food supply and/or cash income (Dejene, Midgley, & Marake, 2011). Any negative cha ...
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
While drought conditions are generally a common and recurring phenomenon of the climate in Southern Africa especially Lesotho, the frequency of droughts in Lesotho has increased significantly over the past few years. Lesotho has suffered the devastating impacts of drought during the past several decades resulting in poor harvests and large livestock losses to rural farmers. The majority of the population in Lesotho engages with rain- fed agriculture and is dependent to some degree on own production for household food supply and/or cash income (Dejene, Midgley, & Marake, 2011). Any negative changes in precipitation and droughts exacerbate poverty and suffering amongst the most vulnerable communities in Lesotho. For these reasons, it is imperative to understand the nature of droughts, particularly agricultural drought and how it can be monitored for better planning. The objective of this study will be: To study spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought over Lesotho using SPEI (derived from rainfall and temperatures) and NDVI/VCI from satellite data. […]
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (monnapulam(at)icloud.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Drought ; Lesotho ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Diagnosis Of Extreme Rainfall And Temperature Event Over Rwanda (1961-2010)
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Seas ...
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Season in the courses of the year. The first rainy season runs from March – May (MAM) with the highest precipitation in April and second rainy season from September to November (SON), which has recorded the highest precipitation in November. The spatial distribution of monthly precipitation from January to December similarly show that the rainy season runs from March- May (MAM) received the highest precipitation in the region compared to September-November (SON). Results further show that the years with standardized deviation of +1 or more (wet years) including ,MAM and SON respectively, 1961,1963,1970,1981,1994,1998,2001,2004,2006 and 2009 whereas floods years. And for standardized deviation of -1 or less (dry years) includes 1979, 1984, 1993,2000,2001,2007 and 2010 considered as droughts years. The circulation anomalies associated with wet and dry years studied over these identified years revealed that in Rwanda, the equatorial wind climatology is deeply modified by the relief at a varied altitude.
Forecasters would make Rwanda climate more predictable. Strategies that integrate land and water management, and disaster risk reduction, within a framework of emerging climate change risks would bolster resilient development in the face of impacts of the new set of climate in Rwanda.Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (ujacquie(at)yahoo.fr) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Extreme weather event ; Precipitation ; Extreme temperature ; Research ; Rwanda ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division ; Circulation anomaly pattern ; Wet and dry event ; Extreme Rainfall
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The Sahel Drought Mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. A ...
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. Although the region is still yet to fully recover from the early 1980s devastating droughts, but in recent decades the Sahel is not as dry as it used to be in the 1980s. An EOF analysis of Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs), SPI reveal a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in SSTs and precipitation induced mode of inter-annual variations as the two leading patterns, respectively. Our results from analysis of the two Oceans’ SSTs refute the conclusion of earlier studies that southward shift of tropical Atlantic SSTs, and steady warming in the Indian Ocean which enhances subsidence over the Sahel through Ross-by waves caused the severe Sahel drought. The results of this study may only be useful in this context and should not imply that SSTs variability in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean solely explains rainfall variability over the Sahel, but rather that the combined SST forcing can, at least in certain years, be an important driving force of Sahel rainfall variability. Composite analyses show that the Sahel drought is usually accompanied by easterly winds, and moisture transport from the continent into the Atlantic Ocean.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (laiandulicsay(at)yahoo.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Drought ; Extreme weather event ; Sahel ; West Africa ; Region I - Africa ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division ; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
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Study on the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Process Intensifying the Squall Lines over Guinea
This research investigates the dynamical and thermodynamical process of mesoscale convective system that intensifies squall lines wind speed propagation. The generation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and its lifecycle. The characteristics of squall lines (SLs) over West Africa (WA) which occurred In Guinea for two cases periods June 01-02 and June 13-14, 2015. In all six (6) AEWs have been tracked using reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). European Meteorological Satellite images (EUMETSAT) and Earth Networks WeatherBug StreamerRT were also used to ...
Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
This research investigates the dynamical and thermodynamical process of mesoscale convective system that intensifies squall lines wind speed propagation. The generation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and its lifecycle. The characteristics of squall lines (SLs) over West Africa (WA) which occurred In Guinea for two cases periods June 01-02 and June 13-14, 2015. In all six (6) AEWs have been tracked using reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). European Meteorological Satellite images (EUMETSAT) and Earth Networks WeatherBug StreamerRT were also used to identify the displacement of these squall lines. Their leading edges was localized mainly from Hovmöller diagram, streamline maps and potential vorticity. It is found that the area west of the AEW trough is a favorable location for squall lines generation over the entire tropical West Africa.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (bobomosory(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Weather forecasting ; Research ; Guinea ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Variability of Benin JJAS Precipitation associated with MAM SST Anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean
Precipitations vary consistently in Benin from 1981 to 2010. The present study reveals that the variation of Benin JJAS precipitation is positively correlated to MAM Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Atlantic Ocean with correlation coefficient more than 0.7. When the SST is higher (lower) in the Atlantic Ocean, precipitation over Benin tends to be above (below) normal. The years 1988, 1989, 2003, 2007 and 2008, were wet with 1988, 2003, 2008 high SST over Tropical Southern Atlantic Ocean (STAO) while the years 1982, 1983, 1992 and 1997 formed the dry years with low SST over Tropical Southern At ...
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Interannual variation monthly rainfall from May to August associated with large-scale circulation anomalies over south coast of West Africa
The southern coastal region of West Africa (SCWA) is located between 40N-80N latitudes and 100W -50E longitudes near the equator in the northern Hemisphere, the south and west are respectively equatorial and West Atlantic Ocean, and it is consisted to seven countries (Sierra Leon, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria). The rainy season starts from spring to the summer, mainly from May to October. The rainfall is very important for southern coastal of West Africa region which their economy and food supply are highly dependent on agricultural production. Understanding of previo ...
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Inter annual summer rainfall variability over Zimbabwe and its possible mechanism
The variability and predictability of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe at inter-annual time scale is studied. Dry and wet seasons are identified using Zimbabwe Standardized Rainfall Index (ZRI). Seasonal rainfall and circulation patterns are investigated at inter annual time scale. The study focuses on the temporal and spatial variation of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe and tries to explain the circulation mechanisms associated with such phenomenon.
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Rainfall Variability over Zimbabwe and its relation to large-scale atmosphere-ocean processes
Mamombe Vimbai - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016For Zimbabwe, where rain fed agriculture is the backbone of the economy, the importance of accurate rainfall seasonal forecasts cannot be overemphasized (Makarau and Jury, 1997). In fact, extremes in interseasonal variability of rainfall can significantly complicate human livelihoods. In addition, there have been predictions of increased precipitation variability and hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall due to global warming (Field et al., 2014; Mushore, 2013a). Thus, detailed understanding of the major contributors to the rainfall variability over Zimbab ...
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Climate finance : lessons from Rwanda
Developed countries have made little progress in providing climate finance for the transition towards low-emission and climateadaptive development pathways in developing countries. It is expected that a new legal agreement on climate finance will be reached at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP 21) later this year. It is vital that developing countries are able to motivate for greater climate finance accessibility. To this end, developing countries must demonstrate their ability to manage funds, develop projects that respond to social needs and indicate clear impact and results. Rw ...
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Forecasting Heavy Rains and Landslides in Eastern Africa
Good rainfall draws many people to settle across the eastern Africa highlands for farming and other businesses. However, factors such as steep terrain, logging, livestock grazing, agriculture, and construction, have increased erosion and contributed to less stable slopes. These factors can lead to devastating landslides and mudslides, especially during episodes of very heavy rain. Forecasting and monitoring heavy rainfall is challenging, especially in mountainous regions that have few surface observations. This make satellite data critical for meteorologists and hydrologists forecasting for th ...
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Extreme High Swell Events on the Moroccan Atlantic Coast
High swell events can develop far from the coast under cyclonic conditions, and take several days to travel to land. If early warnings are not issued, they can take an area by surprise and have a devastating impact. This lesson aims to improve the ability of marine forecasters to forecast extreme marine events related to high swells. It does so by providing background information on winds and waves, and presenting a process for monitoring and forecasting high swell events using a variety of data. These include ASCAT scatterometer wind data and the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) product, wh ...
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Using ASCAT Wind and Other Data in Marine Forecasting
This case study lesson demonstrates the use of scatterometer wind and, to a lesser extent, altimeter significant wave height products in marine forecasting. A brief introduction to cold fronts and their impact on weather and sea state conditions sets the stage for the main part of the lesson, the case study. The case follows the passage of a cold front over the South Atlantic Ocean on 23 and 24 November 2013 when the Polarstern research vessel was transiting the area. Learners use ASCAT wind and Jason significant wave height data to help determine current conditions and evaluate GFS and WAVEWA ...
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