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Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Sanderson M.G.; Hemming D.L.; Betts R.A. - The Royal Society, 2011Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as ‘high-end’ (those projecting 4°C o ...
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Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Smith Mark Stafford; Horrocks Lisa; Harvey Alex; et al. - The Royal Society, 2011With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with th ...
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Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Nicholls Robert J.; Marinova Natasha; Lowe Jason A.; et al. - The Royal Society, 2011The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the i ...
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The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Warren Rachel - The Royal Society, 2011The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by re ...
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Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Fung Fai; Lopez Ana; New Mark - The Royal Society, 2011While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by e ...
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When could global warming reach 4°C?
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369. N° 1934. Betts Richard A.; Collins Matthew; Hemming Deborah L.; et al. - The Royal Society, 2011The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-fir ...
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Real-time evaluation of Norway’s international climate and forest initiative: contributions to national REDD+ processes 2007-2010: country report: Indonesia
The rationale behind Norway’s support for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is to make a substantial contribution in the struggle against global warming. This report presents the findings of an evaluation of the support provided by Norway to the formulation and implementation of national REDD strategies and other REDD readiness efforts in Indonesia up until the end of August 2010.
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Real-time evaluation of Norway’s international climate and forest initiative: contributions to national REDD+ processes 2007-2010: country report: Guyana
As a high forest cover / low deforestation rate country, Guyana has been keen to engage in a pilot of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) to utilise payments for the environmental services. This paper aims to determine the relevance, effectiveness and efficiency of Norway’s support to Guyana in terms of REDD aspects, and draw preliminary lessons and recommendations.
Coastal Climate Change
As climate changes, dynamic coastal regions are experiencing a wide range of impacts. Sea levels, ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, ocean heat, and ocean circulation have all been changing in ways unseen for thousands of years. Arctic sea ice melted significantly more during summers in the last 30 years, and storms are intensifying. Coastal ecosystems stand to be damaged, and coasts will likely erode from rising sea levels, intensified storm surges, and flooding that climate change may amplify. Coastal communities will need to prepare adaptation strategies to cope, and many who li ...
Images of change : A photographer documents a warming world
Braasch Gary - Gary Braasch, 2011Images of change, of scientists at work, of people already on the edge of climate change – these give needed background to weather news and climatology research. They can provoke public discussion and political decision-making. Excellent, well-planned and science-driven photography is an essential tool for climate and weather services worldwide. Pictures are not science; they can, however, provide direct evidence that global warming is happening now, all over the world. It is important to document this decisive, overarching event of the twenty-first century – one with no equal in the previous ...
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Polar Vortex Response to Pacific Ocean Warming and Its Additive Nonlinearity with the Indian Ocean
A previous modeling study about Pacific Ocean warming derived polar vortex response signals, by subtracting those in the Indian Ocean warming experiments from those in the Indo-Pacific. This approach questions the resemblance of such an indirectly derived response to one directly forced by Pacific Ocean warming. This is relevant to the additive nonlinearity of atmospheric responses to separated Indian and Pacific Ocean forcing. In the present study, an additional set of ensemble experiments are performed by prescribing isolated SST forcing in the tropical Pacific Ocean to address this issue. T ...
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No. 25 - July 2010 - Climate change
The present issue of Spatium is devoted to climate change, to the most evident scientific observations corroborating global warming and the outstanding rate at which the global mean temperature is rising. Then, it presents some projections into the future under various more or less optimistic assumptions regarding mankind’s ability to counteract the climate threat. Finally, it will high light some measures taken so far which, unfortunately, are still far from being sufficient to keep the Earth’s climate under control.
The Emissions Gap Report : are the Copenhagen Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming to 2° C or 1.5° C? A preliminary assessment
UNEP, 2010Climate change represents one of the greatest challenges but also an inordinate opportunity to catalyze a transition to a low-carbon, resource efficient Green Economy.
This report informs governments and the wider community on how far a response to climate change has progressed over the past 12 months, and thus how far the world is on track to meet wider goals,.
The pledges associated with the Copenhagen Accord of 2009 are the point of departure for this report. What might be achieved in terms of limiting a global temperature rise to 2ºC or less in the 21st centur ...
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Warming not due to urban heating says research : In Reporting Climate Science
Clifford Leon - 2010Surface temperature increases appear to be independant of wind speed suggesting that urban heating is not responsible for the long-term observed surface warming trend, according to new research that is to be published shortly.
Global climate change impacts in the United States : a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program
This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and integrates those results with related research from around the world. This report discusses climate-related impacts for various societal and environmental sectors and regions of the nation. It is an authoritative scientific report written in plain language, with the goal of better informing public and private decision making of better informing public and private decision maki ...
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