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CAWCR technical report, 39. Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability
In this report we assess forecasts from Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) in comparison to international dynamical coupled model forecast systems, which are archived as part of the ENSEMBLES project. We investigate how universal the lack of reliability is in dynamical forecasts of regional rainfall, in order to highlight any potential for improvement of the POAMA system. The systems assessed in this report show that overconfidence and lack of reliability for regional rainfall forecasts is a common problem. Due to the clear need for improved reliability and more accurate s ...
Volcanic Ash: Impacts to Aviation, Climate, Maritime Operations, and Society
This module is the third in the four-part Volcanic Ash series. It provides information on the impacts of an explosive volcanic eruption to aviation, climate, maritime operations and society. The threats, or impacts, from an eruption vary depending on the eruption style, duration and proximity--both in distance and altitude--to the volcano. As you learned earlier, an eruption may bring multiple hazards to urban and rural areas through: Lahars (mudflows) and floods Lava-flow inundation Pyroclastic flows and surge Volcanic ash and bomb fallout Volcanic gases In this module, we'll take a closer lo ...
Role of the Skywarn Spotter
The goal of the "Role of the SKYWARN® Spotter" module is to provide baseline training for all spotters through multiple scenarios covering the procedures for spotting (including communication and storm report criteria), safety considerations for all hazards, and an overview of the national program and its history.
Flood Forecasting Case Study: International Edition
This module allows users to explore the flood forecasting process by assuming the role of a visiting hydrologist intern at the National Hydrologic Service in Main Country. Fictional senior hydrologists guide the intern through an idealized flooding event that takes place over Main Country's Mainstem river basin and its tributary basins, each with varying landscapes and observation systems. Users will examine how these variations impact the quality and type of forecast that can be achieved. Users will also learn about common problems encountered in flood forecasting, and how to adjust forecasts ...
Intercomparison of Models - Verification of Moderate Rainfall over Nigeria in the Summer of 2010
The science of weather forecasting is only as good as its ability to produce results. Models are some of the tools meteorologists have come to depend on to help them in forecasting and the dependability as well as reliability of a model is measured by its ability to track and forecast ahead of time a given event. Thus this study looked at the inter comparison of four models namely; GFS, ECMWF, UKMET and METEOFRANCE models, three of which are mostly used by the forecast offices of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency.
Development of a Nonhydrostatic Version of the Mesoscale-Convection-Resolving Model and its Application to the Eyewall and Spiral Rainbands of Tropical Cyclones
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Yamasaki Masanori - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010A numerical model in which the effects of cumulus convection are incorporated as the subgrid-scale and mesoscale organized convection is resolved by the grid (mesoscale-convection-resolving model, MCRM) was developed in the 1980s with an intention of improving the parameterization schemes for moist convection, which had been used since the 1960s. As in many numerical models with parameterization in the 1980s, hydrostatic equilibrium was assumed. The present paper describes a nonhydrostatic version of the MCRM, with some modifications of the subgrid-scale effect formulation used in the hydrosta ...
Intense Rainfalls on August 17, 1968 over the Kiso-Hida and Nagara River Basin in Japan Associated with Intrusion of Middle Tropospheric Dry Airs over the Low-level Moist Belt
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Ninomiya Kozo - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010The synoptic-scale condition related to the intense rainfalls on August 17, 1968, over the Kiso?Hida and Nagara River Basin in the central part of Japan is studied by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis data and upper, synoptic-surface, local rain-gauge observation data and satellite cloud images.
The intense rainfalls occurred within a long cloud belt formed with a low-level moist belt (LMB), which had formed along the northwestern rim of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (NPSA). The LMB was sustained by large-scale moisture transport alo ...
Terrain Effects on an Afternoon Heavy Rainfall Event, Observed over Northern Taiwan on 20 June 2000 during Monsoon Break
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Chen Ching-Sen; Liu Che-Ling; Yen Ming-Cheng - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010An afternoon heavy rainfall event in northern Taiwan, observed on June 20, 2000 during the monsoon break, is investigated using surface observation and Doppler radar data and a nonhydrostatic model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.33 km. Heavy rainfall was brought majorly by two precipitation systems, namely A and B. System A was initiated and developed in Taipei Basin, associated with a local wind convergence line. System B was formed on the western slopes south of Taipei Basin, extended northward of the Taipei Basin, and lasted for 4 h. The formation and maintenance mechanisms of the two ...
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Meridional distribution and seasonal variation of stable oxygen isotope ratio of precipitation in the Southern Ocean
Antarctic Record, Vol. 54, No. 2. Nakamura Kayo; Shigeru Aoki; Takenobu Toyota - Scholarly and Academic Information Navigator (CiNii), 2010The stable oxygen isotope ratio(δ^<18>O) in precipitation is known to have important meridional and seasonal variations, but there are almost no measurements of δ^<18>O in precipitation over polar oceans. The present research took advantage of 4 opportunities for in situ observations in summer and winter at high latitudes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, we analyzed samples of precipitation at Syowa Station in 2008 to obtain year-round data. Based on these data, we consider the meridional and seasonal variations of δ^<18>O in precipitation over the Southern Ocean. In general, δ^<18>O decrea ...
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61 - March 2010 - 強雨をもたらす線状降水帯の形成機構等の解明及び降水強度・移動速度の予測に関する研究 = Studies on formation process of line-shaped rainfall systems and predictability of rainfall intensity and moving speed
Autoclaved natural seawater collected in the North Pacific Ocean was used as a reference material for nutrients in seawater (RMNS) during an inter-laboratory comparison (I/C) study conducted in 2008. This study was a follow-up to previous studies conducted in 2003 and 2006. A set of six samples was distributed to each of 58 laboratories in 15 countries around the globe, and results were returned by 54 of those laboratories (15 countries). The homogeneities of samples used in the 2008 I/C study, based on analyses for three determinants, were improved compared to those of samples used in the 200 ...
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Temporal Variations of the Frontal and Monsoon Storm Rainfall during the First Rainy Season in South China
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Yuan Fang; Wei Ke; Chen Wen; et al. - Science Press, 2010The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. T ...
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Analysis of South Asian Monsoons within the Context of Increasing Regional Black Carbon Aerosols
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 4. Mahmood Rashed; Yao Jin-Feng - Science Press, 2010South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model. The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons. The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere, a result that is consistent with previous studies. Pre-monsoon (March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies, particularly for some coastal regions of India. The summer ( ...
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Volume 3 Number 3 - 16 May 2010
is an issue of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. Science Press, 2010Contains:
- Analysis of a Beijing Heavy Snowfall Related to an Inverted Trough in November 2009
LI Jin,ZHAO Si-Xiong,YU Fei
- Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain
PING Fan,LUO Zhe-Xian
- An Improved Atmospheric Vector Radiative Transfer Model Incorporating Rough Ocean Boundaries
FAN Xue-Hua,CHEN Hong-Bin,HAN Zhi-Gang,LIN Long-Fu
- A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in ...
Runoff Processes: International Edition
The Runoff Processes module offers a thorough introduction to the runoff processes critical for flood and water supply prediction. This module explains key terminology and concepts including the following: types of runoff, paths through which water becomes runoff, basin and soil properties that influence runoff, and numerical runoff modeling. Examples of popular runoff models are also discussed.
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