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IOM Report, 135. Survey on the Use of the Guide to Instruments and Methods of Observation (WMO-No. 8)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; A. Lilja, S. Cohn, C. Fierz, J. Gueusquin, T. Konzelmann, P-W. S. Lau and A. Webb - WMO, 2021
Interpreting and Communicating EPS Guidance: Germany Winter Event
This 45-minute lesson briefly introduces learners to the benefits of using probabilistic forecast information to assess weather and communicate forecast uncertainties. Learners will explore a winter weather event in Germany and practice synthesizing deterministic and probabilistic forecast guidance to better understand forecast uncertainties based on lead-time. Also, learners will decide how to best communicate the potential weather threats and impacts to local end users. The lesson is another component of the Forecast Uncertainty: EPS Products, Interpretation, and Communication distance learn ...
Satellite Foundational Course for JPSS: SatFC-J (SHyMet Full Course Access)
The Satellite Foundational Course for JPSS (SatFC-J) is a series of short lessons focused on topics related to microwave remote sensing and Joint Polar Satellite System instruments and capabilities. Hosted by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), this resource provides access to the full set of course lessons, which were developed specifically for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. The lessons provide foundational training to help forecasters and decision makers maximize the utility of the U.S.’ new-generation polar-orbiting environmental satellites. The cou ...
Spatial/Temporal Distribution of Rainfall and the Dynamic Factors Associated over African Great Lakes Region from 1981 to 2016
Based on Global Precipitation Climatology center (GPCC) precipitation data and Era-Interim Zonal and Meridional wind, relative humidity, Sea Level Pressure and Sea surface temperature data from ECMWF, Statistical methods were conducted to find out the interannual variability of rainfall and its dynamic factors in AGLR from 1981 to 2016. The results show that there are two (long and short) rainfall seasons over AGLR, MAM and OND respectively. The empirical orthogonal function was used to reveal through the dominant principal components (PC1) of the first EOF, the extreme years (wet and dry) for ...
WWRP, 2018-1. 세계 인공증우 활동에 대한 전문가 평가 보고서
KMA, 2018가장 유익한 정보만을 제공하기 위하여 인공증우의 과학적 근거에만 초점을 맞추기로 했기 때문에 지구공학에 관련된 주제뿐만 아니라 우박방지, 안개소산 또는 안개제거도 이번 평가의 범위에서 제외되었다. 또한 가장 유용한 정보를 제공하기 위해, 구름씨뿌리기의 가장 일반적인 대상이었던 겨울철 지형성구름계와 대류성 구름계에 초점을 맞추기로 하였다. 이 평가서는 다섯 가지 주제로 구성되어 있다 .
WWRP, 2018-1. Peer Review Report on Global Precipitation Enhancement Activities
WMO, 2018In order to be most beneficial, this review focuses exclusively on the scientific basis for precipitation enhancement. Hail suppression, fog dispersion or harvesting as well as subjects related to geoengineering were, thus, out of scope for this current assessment. In addition, to provide the most useful information, the report focuses on the two cloud types most seeded in the past: winter orographic cloud systems and convective cloud systems. The review is structured in five thematic chapters
IOM Report, 131. WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE) (2012 - 2015)
The Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE) was conducted as an internationally coordinated project, initiated and guided by the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The SPICE field experiments took place between 2013 and 2015, with a preparatory stage during the winter of 2012/13.
SPICE was carried out as a major international effort, and has been remarkable for the diversity of organizations which hosted SPICE tests, contributed with instruments, and were engaged in the data analysis and the derivat ...
Lesson and Group Exercise on Rain Formation
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) - WMO, 2018
Statistical Methods in the NWS National Blend of Global Models Part 2
This lesson introduces users to the statistics used in generating the various weather element forecasts included in version 2 and 3 of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of Global Models (NBM). This Level 3 lesson is intended for forecasters and users of NWS forecast products; some prior knowledge of numerical weather prediction and statistics is useful. Learners will be introduced to the analysis of record used to calibrate the NBM’s bias and error estimates. Learners will also explore the bias correction, weighting, and post-processing procedures used to produce the forec ...
Local Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting and Communication
This lesson introduces learners to the challenges in predicting and communicating localized tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall threats. The lesson discusses the key ingredients conducive for heavy TC rainfall, and the tools used by the National Weather Service to forecast it. Learners work through a TC case to practice interpreting precipitation guidance correctly and communicating the threat and impacts. The lesson also highlights the issuance of flash flood emergencies and areal flood warnings during TC events, and how to best communicate TC rainfall impacts for a local area. The lesson will tak ...
Met 101: Basic Weather Processes
This lesson provides an overview of basic weather processes, beginning with how the distribution of incoming solar energy helps to establish Earth’s atmospheric circulations. Learners will gain an understanding of the differences between weather and climate, and how Earth’s winds tend to have dominant patterns determined by region. An introduction to atmospheric stability, clouds, precipitation processes, and thunderstorm characteristics is also included, along with an introduction to weather impacts affecting aviation operations.
Using the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) for Water Resilience Decisions
This lesson offers users of climate information a demonstration of the utility of the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) for water resources applications. The training follows a NOAA Climate Resilience Toolkit case study in Tampa, Florida, and illustrates how LCAT analyses can be used to inform the steps to climate resilience outlined in the Toolkit. This text-based, interactive lesson will be accessible to anyone using LCAT for water resources decision-making, though will be most useful to those with some familiarity with drought/water resources questions and information needs. Some backgroun ...
WPC Rainfall Guidance for Tropical Cyclones
This lesson introduces learners to the challenges in predicting precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). It also provides an overview of the deterministic and probabilistic rainfall guidance products issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to forecast TC-related precipitation. Learners work through a TC case to practice interpreting the guidance correctly and communicating the precipitation threat. The lesson also highlights the different interpretations of probabilistic products from the WPC and National Hurricane Center, and the need for collaboration between national cen ...
Reservoir Pool Elevation: Considerations for Long-term Asset Management and Planning
Long-term management of critical water resources infrastructure needs to incorporate projected changes to environmental conditions. Reservoirs form the heart of water resource assets. Long-range plans for the repair, replacement, maintenance and renovation of these facilities depend on accurate projections of reservoir pool elevations. Environmental conditions, in turn, dictate the magnitude and timing of inflows and outflows from reservoirs, and thus the resulting water surface elevation. This lesson explores the factors that affect reservoir pool elevation and the considerations and challeng ...
Met 101: Introduction to the Atmosphere
This lesson provides an overview of Earth’s atmosphere, its vertical structure, the fundamental forces acting on air, and how the atmosphere's composition affects the colors we see in the sky. The lesson also includes information about how Earth receives energy from the Sun as solar and infrared radiation, and the mechanisms for transferring heat around the globe. Learners will be introduced to the components of Earth’s water cycle, and also briefly explore the main types of systems used to observe the atmosphere.
Evaluation of subseasonal prediction of extreme rainfall events and their relationship with the Madden Julian Oscillation over the Solomon Islands
The conference provides an opportunity for students especially PhD students to present their work and get feedback from other professionals. Not only that but the it also offers an excellent chance for networking among aspiring scientists and the possibility for future collaborations.
Study of interannual variability of October-December rainfall season over Djibouti
Rainfall is a very important weather and climate parameter that affects social and economic activities in Djibouti. This leads to droughts, floods and humanitarian disasters over the country. The rainfall climatology of the country has some changes which need to be taken into account while planning for economic activities such as civil and structural engineering. The whole country receives significant rains in the months of (October – December) and (March – April) as known except for the southern parts of the country. The southern part of the country gets its rains in the months of (June to Au ...
Change of diurnal precipitation in different phases of Bsiso
As we know tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) was described as 2 modes such as Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) during boreal summer and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dominates during boreal winter. In summer time, Thailand where located at the coastal region at the Equator which is effected by BSISO. Some week there is strong diurnal cycle but some week is opposite. The purpose of this work is to study the evolution of BSISO and to study the change of diurnal precipitation in different phases of BSISO. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 3B42 data on 0.25 ...
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Three research projects to share US$ 5 million grant
Bulletin, Vol. 65(1). WMO, 2016WMO congratulates the three scientists leading the research teams that will share the US$ 5 million grant from the United Arab Emirates Research Programme for Rain Enhancement Science.
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Lancement d’un programme international de bourses de recherche de 5 millions de dollars
Bulletin, Vol. 64(1). OMM, 2016La population mondiale devrait augmenter de trois milliards de personnes d’ici 2050, et 90 % de cette croissance s’observera dans les pays en développement. Or, les habitants de ces pays dépendent actuellement, pour leurs besoins en eau potable et pour la production d’aliments, des ressources en eau traditionnelles et des précipitations. La croissance démographique projetée poussera vraisemblablement les systèmes mondiaux d’approvisionnement en eau au bord de la crise.
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Plaidoyer en faveur de la prévision hydrologique à échéance prolongée pour une meilleure gestion des ressources en eau
L’eau douce est une ressource importante pour la vie humaine, l’activité économique, la santé des écosystèmes et les processus géophysiques. Au cours de la première décennie du XXIe siècle, l’Australie a subi des épisodes de conditions météorologiques extrêmes et vécu, en 2013, l’année la plus chaude jamais observée depuis le début des relevés, en 1910. Les conditions hydrologiques en Australie comptent parmi les plus variables du monde. Le pays peut traverser de longues périodes de sécheresse comme la «sécheresse du millénaire» qui a frappé, entre 1997 et 2000, la plus grande partie de l’est ...
Statistical analysis of rainfall trend and water vapor distribution over the Central African Republic
To apprehend the temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall over CAR, we computed thirty-three years (1981-2013) of monthly rainfall, relative humidity over the country divided into four (4) distinct sub-regions. Bearing different characteristics one to another, we found that Region 2 and Region 4 were having a statistical significant upward trend along the long term rainfall variation; meanwhile Region 3 was the one having a highest coefficient of variation on the yearly basis. The composite analysis showed that December, January and February were the months with higher frequency of va ...
Investigating the variation of intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics in Sierra Leone
The rainy season in Sierra Leone is unimodal from April to October; an understanding of the inter-annual variability of rainfall in Sierra Leone is of importance to economic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, infrastructure, hydro-electric power generation (HEP) and water resources. This study investigated the variation of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics in Sierra Leone. Daily rainfall data from 4 synoptic stations was obtained from the Sierra Leone Meteorological Department from 1990-2014.
Diagnosis Of Extreme Rainfall And Temperature Event Over Rwanda (1961-2010)
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Seas ...
Variability of Benin JJAS Precipitation associated with MAM SST Anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean
Precipitations vary consistently in Benin from 1981 to 2010. The present study reveals that the variation of Benin JJAS precipitation is positively correlated to MAM Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Atlantic Ocean with correlation coefficient more than 0.7. When the SST is higher (lower) in the Atlantic Ocean, precipitation over Benin tends to be above (below) normal. The years 1988, 1989, 2003, 2007 and 2008, were wet with 1988, 2003, 2008 high SST over Tropical Southern Atlantic Ocean (STAO) while the years 1982, 1983, 1992 and 1997 formed the dry years with low SST over Tropical Southern At ...
Interannual variation monthly rainfall from May to August associated with large-scale circulation anomalies over south coast of West Africa
The southern coastal region of West Africa (SCWA) is located between 40N-80N latitudes and 100W -50E longitudes near the equator in the northern Hemisphere, the south and west are respectively equatorial and West Atlantic Ocean, and it is consisted to seven countries (Sierra Leon, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria). The rainy season starts from spring to the summer, mainly from May to October. The rainfall is very important for southern coastal of West Africa region which their economy and food supply are highly dependent on agricultural production. Understanding of previo ...
Inter annual summer rainfall variability over Zimbabwe and its possible mechanism
The variability and predictability of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe at inter-annual time scale is studied. Dry and wet seasons are identified using Zimbabwe Standardized Rainfall Index (ZRI). Seasonal rainfall and circulation patterns are investigated at inter annual time scale. The study focuses on the temporal and spatial variation of summer rainfall over Zimbabwe and tries to explain the circulation mechanisms associated with such phenomenon.
Rainfall Variability over Zimbabwe and its relation to large-scale atmosphere-ocean processes
Mamombe Vimbai - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016For Zimbabwe, where rain fed agriculture is the backbone of the economy, the importance of accurate rainfall seasonal forecasts cannot be overemphasized (Makarau and Jury, 1997). In fact, extremes in interseasonal variability of rainfall can significantly complicate human livelihoods. In addition, there have been predictions of increased precipitation variability and hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall due to global warming (Field et al., 2014; Mushore, 2013a). Thus, detailed understanding of the major contributors to the rainfall variability over Zimbab ...
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US$5 Million International Research Grant Launched
Bulletin, Vol. 64(1). WMO, 2015The world’s population is expected to increase by a further three billion by 2050 – and 90% of that growth will be in developing countries that currently rely on existing water supplies and rainfall for food and water. The projected population growth will most likely bring global water supply to a crisis point.
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The Case for Extended Hydrologic Prediction Services for Improved Water Resource Management
Fresh water is important for human life, economic activity, ecosystem health and geophysical processes. Over the first decade of the twenty-first century, Australia weathered marked extremes, experiencing its warmest period, with 2013 marked as its warmest year since national records began in 1910. Hydrological conditions in Australia are among the most variable on Earth. Its streamflow regime can go through prolonged periods of droughts such as the “Millennium drought” that occurred between 1997 and 2000 across most parts of eastern Australia. This variability has a profound impact on the man ...
NWP Essentials: Precipitation and Clouds
Both the processes of convection and of rainfall formation are typically subgrid scale, and require parameterisation. This lesson examines two types of precipitation parameterisation used by models: Convective parameterisation Microphysics The lesson also discusses how to identify when these parameterisations are not performing well and steps to address the issues that arise.
Assessing the impacts of temporal resolution of precipitation forcing data on the surface energy and water balance
In urban climate research, spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is always a critical element for numerical modelling. However, the effects of temporal resolution of precipitation forcing data has received little attention. Moreover, there has always been a difference practically and theoretically in the availability of precipitation data. This study was carried out to assess the impact of temporal resolution of precipitation forcing data on the modelled surface energy and water balance using available data from a site at the Strand campus of Kings College London. Analysis has been ...
Instability Indices and Heavy Rainfall Forecast in a Maritime Environment
Forecasting heavy rainfall associated with in-situ convective cloud development over small island states is a challenge in operational forecasting as not all numerical models are able to resolve convection at such small scales. Forecasting of such phenomena is mainly based on prevailing local conditions and the use of a plethora of thermodynamic indices derived from the local sounding. This study is an effort to assess the suitability of the different available indices, hereafter referred as traditional indices, to forecast heavy rainfall from local convection, commonly known as pure sea breez ...
Investigating apparent aerosol effects on precipitation in climate model simulations
Aerosols in the atmosphere serve as condensation nuclei for the cloud formation. This brings an important influence on the microphysical properties of cloud water that in turn affect the processes in the formation of precipitation. Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction which simultaneously change cloud albedo interest many studies to find out aerosol impact on precipitation formation. The studies were done by observation measurement and simulation. UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) is one model that includes aerosol direct and indirect effect in the NWP configuration which leads to study aero ...
Rainfall characteristics over Togo and their related atomospheric circulation anomalies: In Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences, 5:34-48
This study attempts to reveal features of rainfall over Togo, in relationship to the
prevailing atmospheric circulation. The study employed correlation analysis and composite analysis in
the analysis of rainfall, sea surface temperature, wind, and humidity. Empirical orthogonal functions
(EOF) analysis was employed in this study. The years: 1989, 1991, 1995, 2003 and 2007 were
identified to be anomalously wet years while 1982, 1983, 1990, 1992, 2001 and 2006 fall in the
anomalously dry years’ category. The dominant mode of variability exhibits a dipole patter ...
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CAWCR technical report, 66. Observing, Estimating and Forecasting Rainfall: From Science to Applications - abstracts of the seventh CAWCR Workshop
The CAWCR Workshop is an annual event and brings together national and international expertise to highlight latest development in research relevant to CAWCR and its stakeholders. It provides an opportunity to identify gaps, opportunities, build relationships and enhance the quality, breadth and depth of our research efforts. The CAWCR Workshop is an annual event and brings together national and international expertise to highlight latest development in research relevant to CAWCR and its stakeholders. It provides an opportunity to identify gaps, opportunities, build relationships and en ...
Caribbean Radar Cases
This module presents radar case studies taken from events in the Caribbean that highlight radar signatures of severe weather. These cases include examples of deep convection, squall lines, bow echoes, tornadoes, and heavy rain resulting in flooding. Each case study includes a discussion of the conceptual models of each type of event as a review before showing the radar signatures and allowing the learner to analyze each one.
Assessment of prone areas to heavy rainfall in Tanzania and its associate circulation anomalies during march-may rainfall season
Mafuru Kantamla Biseke - College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 2013Tanzania is one among the most other sub-Sahara African countries where Agriculture production is strongly depending on rainfall, a key factor which determine the livelihood of 70% of the total population. An adequate amount of rainfall per season reasonably help the farmer to accomplish his/her goal in a positive way, while an excessive amount of rainfall impacts on both people’s livelihood and agricultural production leading into reduction in manpower and nation’s GDP. In recent years, Tanzania suffered a successive scenario of heavy rainfall over different areas of the country, the majority ...
Rainfall and temperature characteristic over Zambia
Temperature and rainfall are important elements of climate Zambia where several sectors of the economy depend mostly on water resources. Zambia normally receives the bulk of its annual rainfall from November to March (NDJFM) as the ITCZ moves south and experience high temperatures. The major objective of the study was to investigate the rainfall and temperature characteristic over Zambia.
Comparison of different rainfall inputs in a continuous rainfall-runoff model – a case study for Argentina
Buzzella Maria Mercedes; Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology and Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering - Leibniz Universität, 2013Precipitation data is the main input parameter in order to simulate rainfall-runoff processes, since it is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the spatial and temporal representation of the precipitation. In regions where rainfall stations are scarce, additional data sources may be considered necessary. In this manner, remote sensing from satellite platforms has provided a satisfactory alternative due to its global coverage. Although a wide range of satellite-based estimations of precipitation is available, not all the satellite products are suitable for all regions. Most of the studies perf ...
International organizing committee for the WMO solid precipitation intercomparison experiment, fourth session : final report
This report provides a summary of the Fourth session of the International Organizing Committee (IOC) of the WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE) that was held in Davos, Switzerland from 17 to 21 June 2013.
The IOC reviewed the outcomes of the first winter season focusing in particular on issues which were experienced on the different sites and which could affect data quality and data availability towards deciding on necessary modifications and clarifications on the overall set-up of the experiment and procedures to be followed within SPICE.
The IOC reviewed ...
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Farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: a synthesis of empirical studies and implications for public policy in African agriculture: In Journal of Agricultural Science, Vol. 5, No. 4
The problem of climate change in Africa has the potential of undermining sustainable development efforts if steps are not taken to respond to its adverse consequences. This study reviews existing and available literature on farmers’ perceptions and adaptations to climate change in sub-Sahara Africa.
It is evident that the majority of farmers in sub-Sahara Africa are aware of warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. To respond to these changes, farmers have adopted crop diversification, planting different crop varieties, changing planting and harvesting dates to corres ...
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CAWCR technical report, 51. Improvements in POAMA2 for the prediction of major climate drivers and south eastern Australian rainfall
Lim Eun-Pa; Hendon Harry H.; Langford Sally; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2012Ocean-atmosphere interactions are key processes that drive seasonal climate variability. In the global sense, the atmosphere drives the upper ocean via heat flux, fresh water flux and wind stress (Anderson 2008). But in the tropics where the ocean surface temperature (hereafter, sea surface temperature, SST) is warm enough to trigger deep atmospheric convection, the ocean exerts strong controls on the atmosphere especially at longer time scales because of its slow variations and strong thermal inertia. Consequently, the highest predictability of atmospheric climate (e.g. temperature and rainfa ...
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Seasonal forecasting outlook for precipitation and average temperature in North Africa for the February-March-April season
ACMAD, 2012
International organizing committee for the WMO solid precipitation intercomparison experiment, third session : final report
This report provides a summary of the third session of the International Organizing Committee (IOC) of the WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE) that was held in Brussels, Belgium on 15 October 2012. The IOC reviewed the proposal from NCAR to provide the data archive for level 1 and 2a data and approved it. It made a number of recommendations for the finalization and improvement of the proposal relevant for example to the data format, interaction with sites, and provision of maintenance information by the sites. The IOC reviewed the status of preparation of all northern he ...
Analysis of heavy rainfall events over Dar es Salaam city: A necessity to lessen flood risks
Floods are a threat to many cities especially in the developing countries and cities found near the coastal areas where the population pressure, unplanned settlements and poor infrastructures are most evident. Climate change also poses a higher flood risks in these areas due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. In this study analysis of extreme rainfall over Dar es Salaam city in Tanzania was done. The analysis employed empirical as well as hydrological frequency modeling to annual maximum daily rainfall events for 5 of the meteorological stations found within the c ...
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A critical analysis of climate change factors and its projected future values in Delta state, Nigeria: In Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vol. 2, No. 2
Emaziye P.O. - 2012This study analyses climate change factors (temperature and rainfall) and their projected future values in the Delta state, Nigeria. A variety of crops such as maize, yam and cassava produced in Delta state depend on rainfall for their optimum performance. Therefore, decreasing and/or irregular rainfall patterns threaten food security in the state. This study reveals increasing trends of temperature values and decreasing rainfall values in the state. However, projected future rainfall values indicated an increasing trend. The study suggests that the increasing trends in temperature values may ...
Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide
Over the years, there has been much discussion on what drought indices should be used in a particular climate and for what application. Many drought definitions and indices have been developed and attempts have been made to provide some guidance on this issue.
We hope that this user guide on the Standardized Precipitation Index will help countries and institutions to understand how to calculate and use the SPI in order to develop or further enhance their own drought monitoring and early warning capabilities.
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Grow in Concert with Nature: Sustaining East Asia’s Water Resources through Green Water Defense
This study will assess advances in management practices, institutional and technological innovations for managing water scarcity sustainably under a changing climate. The impetus for this analysis comes from the World Bank’s concept note ‘Towards Green Water Defense (GWD) in East Asia’ study, specifi cally one of the building blocks of the GWD concept: Managing water scarcity by “producing more with less” or increasing water productivity and reducing undesirable externalities.
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Egypt
Apart from the northern coast, most of Egypt is desert. However, the northern coastal region experiences some precipitation mainly during winter. We investigate the variability of wintertime (December, January and February) precipitation in North Egypt during the 30-yr interval 1976-2005 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and subtropical jet stream.
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Uganda
Uganda is located between latitudes 1.5 0 S to 4.5 0 N and longitudes 28o E to 35 0 E. It contains complex topography that includes large Lakes, Rivers, Great Rift Valley and Mountains, and supports varied wildlife of scientific and economic value. Due to its Equatorial location, this country is expected to receive abundant rainfall throughout the year. This is, however, not the case as frequent occurrences of years of insufficient rainfall for agricultural activities have been observed. Rainfall over Uganda exhibits large spatial and temporal variability. The inter-annual variability has feat ...
Climate Prediction and Monitoring for Burundi
“The dominant pattern of Burundi rainfall is the seasonal move of the dominant Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the Congo air mass and the interconnection with EL Nino/Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. Much of Burundi experiences a bimodal seasonal distribution of rainfall with maxima occurring in the March- April and November. The Interannual variability of rainfall in Burundi shows interesting association with atmospheric and oceanic phenomena. We investigate the variability of rainfall using OND (October, November, December) and MAM (March, April, May) precipitation in Burundi du ...
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Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways: In Current Science, vol.103, issue 7 (10/10/2012)
Climate projections for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are made using the newly developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5). This article provides multi-model and multi-scenario temperature and precipitation projections for India for the period 1860–2099 based on the new climate data. We find that CMIP5 ensemble mean climate is closer to observed climate than any individual model. The key findings of this study are: (i) under the business-asusual (between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 ...
International organizing committee for the WMO solid precipitation intercomparison experiment, second session : final report
This report provides a summary of the second session of the International Organizing Committee (IOC) of the WMO Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE) that was held in Boulder, USA, from 11 to 15 June 2012. The IOC reviewed the outcomes of the informal Pre-SPICE experiment that took place during the winter of 2011/12 in the interest of assessing the principles of the formal intercomparison and to address, in particular, the configuration of a working field reference using an automatic gauge. The IOC reviewed a number of aspects dealing with the configuration and operatio ...
Southern African rainfall physical mechanisms and projected Climate Change with a special focus on Zimbabwe
Aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms driving rainfall systems in southern Africa with a particular focus on Zimbabwe, this research is a step towards improving the representation of those systems in Climate Models leading to improved Rainfall projections. Because RCMs such as PRECIS are good at resolving subtle systems which modify local climates and possibly mask the anticipated anthropogenic induced (rainfall) change, its use in regions such as Zimbabwe that have complex terrain is crucial. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control rainfall in the current climate also prov ...
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Rainfall variability, occupational choice, and welfare in rural Bangladesh
This study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with non-flood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed i ...
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Le Karakorum, glacier de l'Himalaya qui ne fond pas: In lemonde.fr
2012Les glaciers de l'Himalaya fondent lentement, mais une partie d'entre eux sont dans un état stable, voire regagnent légèrement du volume : c'est ce qui ressort de deux articles scientifiques parus dans les revues Science du 20 avril et Nature Geoscience du 15 avril.
标准化降水指数用户指南
多年来，人们对某一特定气候条件下应该使用何种干旱指数、将其应用于何种目的等这类问题一直争论不休。人们也制定了许多干旱的定义和指数，并尝试为这类问题提供一些指导。
Índice normalizado de precipitación : guía del usuario
A lo largo de los años se ha debatido mucho sobre qué índices de sequía deberían utilizarse en
determinados climas y para cuáles aplicaciones. Se han elaborado muchas definiciones e índices
de sequía y se ha tratado de ofrecer orientación sobre este tema.
Guide d’utilisation de l’indice de précipitations normalisé
Savoir quel indice de sécheresse serait le mieux adapté à tel ou tel climat et à telle ou telle application est une question qui suscite force débats au fil des ans. Bon nombre de définitions et d’indices de la sécheresse ont vu le jour et certains auteurs se sont essayés à formuler des avis éclairés sur le sujet.
Руководство для пользователей стандартизированного индекса осадков
В течение ряда лет шло активное обсуждение вопроса о том, какие индексы засухи
следует использовать в конкретном климате и для какого применения. Были
подготовлены многочисленные определения и индексы засухи и предпринимались
попытки предоставить некоторое руководство по этому вопросу.
دليل مستخدمي المؤشر المعياري للهطول
Svoboda Mark; Hayes Michael; Wood Deborah A.; et al. - المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد, 2012 (مجموعة مطبوعات المنظمة-No. 1090)دار على مر السنين نقاش مستفيض بشأن أي مؤشرات الجفاف ينبغي استخدامه في مناخ معين ولأية تطبيقات يستخدم. ووُضعت تعاريف ومؤشرات كثيرة للجفاف، وجرت محاولات لتقديم بعض الإرشادات بشأن هذه المسألة. ونأمل في أن يساعد البلدان والمؤسسات في فهم كيفية حساب واستخدام المؤشر المعياري للهطول من أجل تطوير قدراتها الخاصة على رصد الجفاف والإنذار المبكر به، أو زيادة تعزيز هذه القدرات. ونأمل في أن يساعد البلدان والمؤسسات في فهم كيفية حساب واستخدام المؤشر المعياري للهطول من أجل تطوير قدراتها الخاصة على رصد الجفاف والإنذار المبكر به، أو زيادة تعزيز هذه القدرات.
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Dependence of aerosol-precipitation interactions on humidity in a multiple-cloud system
This study examines the dependence of aerosol-precipitation interactions on environmental humidity in a mesoscale cloud ensemble (MCE) which is composed of convective and stratiform clouds. The author found that increases in aerosol concentration enhance evaporative cooling, which raises not only the intensity of vorticity and entrainment but also that of downdrafts and low-level convergence. The increase in vorticity tends to suppress precipitation. The increase in low-level convergence tends to enhance precipitation by generating more secondary clouds in a muptiple-cloud system simulated her ...
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Vol. 27 No.2 - 2010
is an issue of Geofizika. Andrija Mohorovičić Geophysical Institute,, 20117. Janeković, I., Sikirić, M. D., Tomažić, I. and Kuzmić, M. (2010): Hindcasting the Adriatic Sea surface temperature and salinity: A recent modeling experience. Geofizika, 27, 85-100.
8. Anil Kumar, R., Dudhia, J. and Roy Bhowmik, S. K. (2010): Evaluation of physics options of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to simulate high impact heavy rainfall events over Indian Monsoon region. Geofizika, 27, 101-125.
9. Jurčec, V. and Dragojlović, D. (2010): The unexpected snowstorm of 13 - 14 January 2002 in Zagreb. Geofizika, 27, 127-145.
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Too little too late: Welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia
The authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to ...
CAWCR technical report, 40. Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Charles Andrew; Hendon Harry H.; Wang Q.J.; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information ab ...
CAWCR technical report, 39. Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability
In this report we assess forecasts from Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) in comparison to international dynamical coupled model forecast systems, which are archived as part of the ENSEMBLES project. We investigate how universal the lack of reliability is in dynamical forecasts of regional rainfall, in order to highlight any potential for improvement of the POAMA system. The systems assessed in this report show that overconfidence and lack of reliability for regional rainfall forecasts is a common problem. Due to the clear need for improved reliability and more accurate s ...
Volcanic Ash: Impacts to Aviation, Climate, Maritime Operations, and Society
This module is the third in the four-part Volcanic Ash series. It provides information on the impacts of an explosive volcanic eruption to aviation, climate, maritime operations and society. The threats, or impacts, from an eruption vary depending on the eruption style, duration and proximity--both in distance and altitude--to the volcano. As you learned earlier, an eruption may bring multiple hazards to urban and rural areas through: Lahars (mudflows) and floods Lava-flow inundation Pyroclastic flows and surge Volcanic ash and bomb fallout Volcanic gases In this module, we'll take a closer lo ...
Role of the Skywarn Spotter
The goal of the "Role of the SKYWARN® Spotter" module is to provide baseline training for all spotters through multiple scenarios covering the procedures for spotting (including communication and storm report criteria), safety considerations for all hazards, and an overview of the national program and its history.
Flood Forecasting Case Study: International Edition
This module allows users to explore the flood forecasting process by assuming the role of a visiting hydrologist intern at the National Hydrologic Service in Main Country. Fictional senior hydrologists guide the intern through an idealized flooding event that takes place over Main Country's Mainstem river basin and its tributary basins, each with varying landscapes and observation systems. Users will examine how these variations impact the quality and type of forecast that can be achieved. Users will also learn about common problems encountered in flood forecasting, and how to adjust forecasts ...
Intercomparison of Models - Verification of Moderate Rainfall over Nigeria in the Summer of 2010
The science of weather forecasting is only as good as its ability to produce results. Models are some of the tools meteorologists have come to depend on to help them in forecasting and the dependability as well as reliability of a model is measured by its ability to track and forecast ahead of time a given event. Thus this study looked at the inter comparison of four models namely; GFS, ECMWF, UKMET and METEOFRANCE models, three of which are mostly used by the forecast offices of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency.
Development of a Nonhydrostatic Version of the Mesoscale-Convection-Resolving Model and its Application to the Eyewall and Spiral Rainbands of Tropical Cyclones
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Yamasaki Masanori - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010A numerical model in which the effects of cumulus convection are incorporated as the subgrid-scale and mesoscale organized convection is resolved by the grid (mesoscale-convection-resolving model, MCRM) was developed in the 1980s with an intention of improving the parameterization schemes for moist convection, which had been used since the 1960s. As in many numerical models with parameterization in the 1980s, hydrostatic equilibrium was assumed. The present paper describes a nonhydrostatic version of the MCRM, with some modifications of the subgrid-scale effect formulation used in the hydrosta ...
Intense Rainfalls on August 17, 1968 over the Kiso-Hida and Nagara River Basin in Japan Associated with Intrusion of Middle Tropospheric Dry Airs over the Low-level Moist Belt
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Ninomiya Kozo - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010The synoptic-scale condition related to the intense rainfalls on August 17, 1968, over the Kiso?Hida and Nagara River Basin in the central part of Japan is studied by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis data and upper, synoptic-surface, local rain-gauge observation data and satellite cloud images.
The intense rainfalls occurred within a long cloud belt formed with a low-level moist belt (LMB), which had formed along the northwestern rim of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone (NPSA). The LMB was sustained by large-scale moisture transport alo ...
Terrain Effects on an Afternoon Heavy Rainfall Event, Observed over Northern Taiwan on 20 June 2000 during Monsoon Break
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Chen Ching-Sen; Liu Che-Ling; Yen Ming-Cheng - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010An afternoon heavy rainfall event in northern Taiwan, observed on June 20, 2000 during the monsoon break, is investigated using surface observation and Doppler radar data and a nonhydrostatic model with a horizontal grid spacing of 1.33 km. Heavy rainfall was brought majorly by two precipitation systems, namely A and B. System A was initiated and developed in Taipei Basin, associated with a local wind convergence line. System B was formed on the western slopes south of Taipei Basin, extended northward of the Taipei Basin, and lasted for 4 h. The formation and maintenance mechanisms of the two ...
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Meridional distribution and seasonal variation of stable oxygen isotope ratio of precipitation in the Southern Ocean
Antarctic Record, Vol. 54, No. 2. Nakamura Kayo; Shigeru Aoki; Takenobu Toyota - Scholarly and Academic Information Navigator (CiNii), 2010The stable oxygen isotope ratio(δ^<18>O) in precipitation is known to have important meridional and seasonal variations, but there are almost no measurements of δ^<18>O in precipitation over polar oceans. The present research took advantage of 4 opportunities for in situ observations in summer and winter at high latitudes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, we analyzed samples of precipitation at Syowa Station in 2008 to obtain year-round data. Based on these data, we consider the meridional and seasonal variations of δ^<18>O in precipitation over the Southern Ocean. In general, δ^<18>O decrea ...
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61 - March 2010 - 強雨をもたらす線状降水帯の形成機構等の解明及び降水強度・移動速度の予測に関する研究 = Studies on formation process of line-shaped rainfall systems and predictability of rainfall intensity and moving speed
Autoclaved natural seawater collected in the North Pacific Ocean was used as a reference material for nutrients in seawater (RMNS) during an inter-laboratory comparison (I/C) study conducted in 2008. This study was a follow-up to previous studies conducted in 2003 and 2006. A set of six samples was distributed to each of 58 laboratories in 15 countries around the globe, and results were returned by 54 of those laboratories (15 countries). The homogeneities of samples used in the 2008 I/C study, based on analyses for three determinants, were improved compared to those of samples used in the 200 ...
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Temporal Variations of the Frontal and Monsoon Storm Rainfall during the First Rainy Season in South China
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Yuan Fang; Wei Ke; Chen Wen; et al. - Science Press, 2010The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. T ...
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Analysis of South Asian Monsoons within the Context of Increasing Regional Black Carbon Aerosols
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 4. Mahmood Rashed; Yao Jin-Feng - Science Press, 2010South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model. The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons. The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere, a result that is consistent with previous studies. Pre-monsoon (March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies, particularly for some coastal regions of India. The summer ( ...
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Volume 3 Number 3 - 16 May 2010
is an issue of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. Science Press, 2010Contains:
- Analysis of a Beijing Heavy Snowfall Related to an Inverted Trough in November 2009
LI Jin,ZHAO Si-Xiong,YU Fei
- Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain
PING Fan,LUO Zhe-Xian
- An Improved Atmospheric Vector Radiative Transfer Model Incorporating Rough Ocean Boundaries
FAN Xue-Hua,CHEN Hong-Bin,HAN Zhi-Gang,LIN Long-Fu
- A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in ...
Runoff Processes: International Edition
The Runoff Processes module offers a thorough introduction to the runoff processes critical for flood and water supply prediction. This module explains key terminology and concepts including the following: types of runoff, paths through which water becomes runoff, basin and soil properties that influence runoff, and numerical runoff modeling. Examples of popular runoff models are also discussed.
S-290 Unit 10: Fuel Moisture
S-290 Unit 10: Fuel Moisture provides information about live and dead fuel moisture contents and their relation to fire behavior. Influences on fuel moisture and methods for estimating dead fuel and live fuel moisture in the field are summarized, and guidance is offered for assessing the potential fire danger based on fuel moisture and other fireline information. The module is part of the Intermediate Wildland Fire Behavior Course.
Understanding the Hydrologic Cycle: International Edition
This module helps students gain a basic understanding of the elements of the hydrologic cycle. The hydrologic cycle is the continuous movement and phase change of liquid water, ice, and water vapor above, on, under and through the earth's surface. This module examines the basic concepts of the hydrologic cycle including water distribution, atmospheric water, surface water, groundwater, and snowpack/snowmelt.
IOM Report, 103. Evaluation Scheme for Regional Instrument Centres and Other Calibration Laboratories
The calibration of instruments and the traceability of meteorological measurements to the International Standard (SI) of units are crucial to ensure the quality of meteorological observations and to meet the users’ requirements. Regional Instrument Centres (RICs) play a key role in this context, by providing calibration services to other Members of their Region. In view of the need to ensure the quality of the services provided by the RICs, and the need for strengthening of RICs, the WMO Executive Council requested CIMO to develop a mechanism for their continuous evaluation to ensure quality o ...
IOM Report, 102. CIMO Survey on national summaries of methods and instruments for solid precipitation measurement at automatic weather stations
This publication reports on the results of the CIMO survey, initiated in 2008, on the current methods, instruments and challenges for the measurement of solid precipitation at automatic weather stations. The current survey is the third in its category. It was built on the two previous surveys that were conducted by CIMO 10 and 20 years ago. Since then, the automatic stations have been providing an increased percentage of precipitation data, snow water equivalent, and depth of snow on the ground. The CIMO, at its 14th session, initiated this review to assess the methods for measurement and obse ...
Verification of the TIGGE and WRF Models in forecasting the precipitation event for 3rd February 2010 over Zambia
Nkonde Edson - NOAA, 2010In this case study, attempt was made to verify the performances of the TIGGE and WRF models in simulating rainfall over southern Africa for the period from 1st November 2009 to 10th February 2010, with 24 and 48 hrs lead time. We have tested the skills of the models in forecasting heavy rainfall event, in excess of 40mm per day. Special emphasis was given to rainfall event that occurred on the 3rd of February 2010 over Zambia. The associated atmospheric conditions prior and during the rainfall event were also analyzed, both in analysis and forecasted fields.
Over Southern Africa, all th ...
How Models Produce Precipitation and Clouds - version 2
This module, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", explores how NWP models handle both grid-scale microphysical (precipitation) and convective processes through parameterizations and/or explicit methods, with an emphasis on how model treatment (and errors in the triggering) of these processes affects forecast depiction of precipitation and related forecast variables. Back in 2000, the subject matter expert for this module was Dr. Ralph Petersen of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC). Revisions to ...
The Amazon Rain Forest and Climate Change
This module discusses global climate change that is occurring largely because of greenhouse gases emitted by human activities, and in particular the impact that tropical deforestation plays in the climate system. It also covers signs of climate change, the current thinking on future changes, and international agreements that are attempting to minimize the effects of climate change. The United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UN-REDD Programme) is also discussed.
Climate Change: Fitting the Pieces Together
This module discusses climate change, particularly as it is currently being affected by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases emitted by human activities. It also covers signs of climate change, how scientists study climate, the current thinking on future changes, and what can be done to minimize the effects. Updated in 2012.
Writing TAFS for Winter Weather
"Writing TAFs for Winter Weather" is the fourth unit in the Distance Learning Aviation Course 2 (DLAC2) series on producing TAFs that meet the needs of the aviation community. In addition to providing information about tools for diagnosing winter weather and its related impacts, the module extends the Practically Perfect TAF (PPTAF) process to address an airport’s operational thresholds. By understanding the thresholds at airports for which they produce TAFs, forecasters will be better able to produce a PPTAF. The unit also examines how to communicate effectively the logic and uncertainty usin ...
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