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Operational Models Encyclopedia
The availability of numerical guidance from NWP models has been an important component of operational forecasting for decades. For many, the output from this numerical guidance was produced by a mysterious “black box”. Rules for using and adjusting the guidance for operational forecasters were often subjective “Rules of Thumb” based on experience rather than based on quantitative analysis. To open up this “black box”, we produced this web-based “Operational Models Encyclopedia” linking both generic information on how NWP models work, and specifics on physical parameterizations, dynamics, and d ...
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Uncertainty
This lesson introduces learners to the uncertainty and errors in forecasting the track, timing, and intensity of tropical cyclones. It provides an overview of how the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty is constructed, as well as its uses and common misconceptions. Learners will explore the influences of track, timing, and intensity forecast errors on potential tropical cyclones impacts. The lesson offers suggestions on how to communicate tropical cyclone forecasts knowing their inherent uncertainty. This online lesson is part of the Tropical Cyclone Storm Winds: Forecasting and Co ...
Using Scatterometer Wind and Altimeter Wave Estimates in Marine Forecasting
Scatterometers and altimeters provide a variety of space-based observations that are useful for marine analysis and forecasting as well as other applications. Key among the products are ocean surface winds from scatterometers and significant wave heights from altimeters. This lesson describes the basics of scatterometers and altimeters, including how they work, what they measure, and how scatterometer winds and altimeter significant wave heights are derived. It then discusses some of the challenges in using the estimates, such as dealing with ambiguities and rain contamination. The lesson also ...
WMO Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR)/Space
OSCAR/Space, the “satellite” component of the WMO OSCAR resource, contains updated quality-controlled information on past, present and future satellite missions, instruments and related characteristics, covering a period from 1960 up to 2050, which adds up to 500+ satellites and 800+ instruments dedicated to Earth Observation and Space Weather. In addition, OSCAR/Space provides expert assessments of the applicability of the various instruments for particular measurements. This resource can be used as a reference for studies, as a gap analysis tool, as support for planning, and for educational ...
NWP Essentials: NWP and Forecasting
This lesson introduces forecasters to the complex and multifaceted process for creating a forecast. It also discusses how NWP fits into that process. In addition, the lesson provides a broad overview of the basic components of NWP and how they combine to produce a model forecast.
NWP Essentials: Structure and Dynamics
This lesson is focused on how a model forecast and the interpretation of that forecast, is affected by the basic design of the model. Topics include how meteorological variables are represented in grid point and spectral models, fundamental differences between hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic models, horizontal resolution of orographic and free-atmosphere features, vertical coordinate systems and how they affect the vertical resolution of features in the model forecast.
Gridded Products in the NWS National Blend of Global Models
This lesson introduces users to the five different guidance products that will be included in Version 1.0 of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of global Models (NBM). The primary audience for this lesson includes forecasters and users of NWS forecast products; some prior knowledge of numerical weather prediction is useful. Learners will explore how model guidance from the Global Forecast System, Global Ensemble Forecast System, Canadian Meteorological Centre Ensemble, Ensemble Kernel Density Model Output Statistics (MOS) and gridded GFS MOS is produced. The strengths and l ...
Microwave Remote Sensing: Land and Ocean Surface Applications, 2nd Edition
This lesson introduces the concepts and principles basic to retrieving important land and ocean surface properties using microwave remote sensing observations from polar-orbiting satellites. Section one reviews the advantages of microwave remote sensing from polar-orbiting platforms and briefly highlights some of the unique spectral characteristics that allow for differentiation between various surface types and properties. Subsequent sections present a more in-depth look at the derivation and application of microwave products that quantify four different land and ocean surface properties and ...
Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI): What’s Different from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI)
This brief lesson provides an overview of the AHI on Himawari and highlights its differences from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). It discusses AHI’s improved capabilities in spectral coverage, spatial resolution, and imaging interval over the MTSAT-2 imager; the differences in spectral coverage and scan strategy between AHI and ABI and the impact on products; and how AHI data and products benefit forecasters in Alaska, Pacific Region, and CONUS. Note that the lesson complements COMET’s GOES-R ABI lesson, which should be taken before going through this lesson.
Forecasting Heavy Rains and Landslides in Eastern Africa
Good rainfall draws many people to settle across the eastern Africa highlands for farming and other businesses. However, factors such as steep terrain, logging, livestock grazing, agriculture, and construction, have increased erosion and contributed to less stable slopes. These factors can lead to devastating landslides and mudslides, especially during episodes of very heavy rain. Forecasting and monitoring heavy rainfall is challenging, especially in mountainous regions that have few surface observations. This make satellite data critical for meteorologists and hydrologists forecasting for th ...
Extreme High Swell Events on the Moroccan Atlantic Coast
High swell events can develop far from the coast under cyclonic conditions, and take several days to travel to land. If early warnings are not issued, they can take an area by surprise and have a devastating impact. This lesson aims to improve the ability of marine forecasters to forecast extreme marine events related to high swells. It does so by providing background information on winds and waves, and presenting a process for monitoring and forecasting high swell events using a variety of data. These include ASCAT scatterometer wind data and the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) product, wh ...
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition: Chapter 6 Vertical Transport
This chapter examines vertical transport of heat, moisture, momentum, trace gases, and aerosols, including the role of tropical deep convection and turbulence. Diurnal and seasonal variations in surface fluxes and boundary layer depth are examined. The boundary layer is compared over the ocean, humid, and dry tropics, including its role in dispersing chemicals and aerosols. Boundary layer clouds are examined in terms of their connection to sub-cloud layer properties. Comparisons are made between heat and moisture transport under a variety of convective modes such as mesoscale convective system ...
Using ASCAT Wind and Other Data in Marine Forecasting
This case study lesson demonstrates the use of scatterometer wind and, to a lesser extent, altimeter significant wave height products in marine forecasting. A brief introduction to cold fronts and their impact on weather and sea state conditions sets the stage for the main part of the lesson, the case study. The case follows the passage of a cold front over the South Atlantic Ocean on 23 and 24 November 2013 when the Polarstern research vessel was transiting the area. Learners use ASCAT wind and Jason significant wave height data to help determine current conditions and evaluate GFS and WAVEWA ...
WMO Satellite User Readiness Navigator (SATURN)
The SATURN (SATellite User Readiness Navigator) developed jointly by WMO and meteorological satellite operators provides unified access to information that helps users to prepare for the new generation of meteorological satellites to be launched in the 2015-2020 timeframe. Next-generation geostationary satellites are being launched by JMA, NOAA, CMA, KMA, ROSHYDROMET and EUMETSAT, with unprecedented capabilities for severe weather monitoring, nowcasting and short range forecasting, and for a number of other application areas. However, the new systems also pose unprecedented challenges to users ...
NWP Essentials: Model Physics
This lesson describes model parameterizations of surface, PBL, and free atmospheric processes. It specifically addresses how models treat these processes, how such processes can potentially interact with each other, and how they can influence forecasts of sensible weather elements. Topics covered include: soil moisture processes, radiative processes involving clouds, and turbulent processes in the PBL and free atmosphere.
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