Topics
Sorted by (Issue date descending, Date of update descending, Date of creation descending, Number of collection descending) Add the result to your favourites Refine your search
Руководящие указания по системам ансамблевого прогнозирования и прогнозированию
Системы ансамблевого прогнозирования (САП) представляют собой системы численного прогнозирования погоды (ЧПП), которые позволяют нам оценивать неопределенность в прогнозе погоды, а также наиболее вероятный исход. Вместо прогона модели ЧПП один раз (детерминированный прогноз) модель прогоняется много раз с несколько разными исходными условиями. Во многих случаях физика модели бывает также несколько возмущенной, а некоторые ансамбли используют более одной модели внутри ансамбля (мультимодельная САП) или одну и ту же модель, но с различными комбинациями схем физической параметризации (мул ...
Directrices sobre los sistemas de predicción por conjuntos y la predicción
Los sistemas de predicción por conjuntos son sistemas de predicción numérica del tiempo (PNT) que permiten estimar la incertidumbre de una predicción meteorológica, así como el desenlace más probable del proceso predicho. En lugar de ejecutar el modelo de PNT una sola vez (predicción determinística), se ejecuta numerosas veces partiendo de condiciones iniciales ligeramente diferentes. Con frecuencia se introduce también una ligera perturbación en los parámetros físicos del modelo, y algunos conjuntos hacen uso de más de un modelo (sistema de predicción por conjuntos multimodelo), o bien ...Mejora en la alerta de ciclones. Caso práctico: Filipinas
Mejorar la predicción de los ciclones es uno de los objetivos de la investigación meteorológica internacional. Este caso práctico de un tifón de 2009 que estuvo a punto de impactar sobre Filipinas ofrece una perspectiva del alcance de la predicción por conjuntos.Las predicciones se volverán más sutiles: Entrevista con Eugenia Kalnay
Boletín, Vol. 59(2). OMM, 2011El hecho de contar con mejores predicciones representa un importantísimo logro científico, y estas predicciones se tornarán más sutiles, tal y como defiende Eugenia Kalnay, ganadora del Premio de la Organización Meteorológica Internacional de 2009. La OMM ha estado en primera línea de la colaboración para hacer que esto sea posible. La obtención de noticias acerca de predicciones para la audiencia adecuada constituye el siguiente desafío.US Weather Satellites saw tornado swarm coming 5 days out
SAN FRANCISCO — Five days before approximately 200 tornadoes swept through six states in the Southeastern United States between April 25 and April 28, local meteorologists were alerted to the possibility of unusually severe weather by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data.The effect of meteorological and chemical factors on the agreement between observations and predictions of fine aerosol composition in southwestern Ontario during BAQS-Met
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Markovic M.Z.; Hayden K.L.; Murphy J.G.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) was an intensive, collaborative field campaign during the summer of 2007 that investigated the effects of transboundary pollution, local pollution, and local meteorology on air quality in southwestern Ontario. This analysis focuses on the measurements of the inorganic constituents of particulate matter with diameter of less than 1 μm (PM1), with a specific emphasis on nitrate. We evaluate the ability of AURAMS, Environment Canada's chemical transport model, to represent regional air pollution in SW Ontario by comparing modelled aerosol in ...Impact of model grid spacing on regional- and urban- scale air quality predictions of organic aerosol
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Stroud C.A.; Makar P.A.; Moran M.D.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Regional-scale chemical transport model predictions of urban organic aerosol to date tend to be biased low relative to observations, a limitation with important implications for applying such models to human exposure health studies. We used a nested version of Environment Canada's AURAMS model (42- to- 15- to- 2.5-km nested grid spacing) to predict organic aerosol concentrations for a temporal and spatial domain corresponding to the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met), an air-quality field study that took place in the southern Great Lakes region in the summer of 2007. The use o ...Sensitivity of mesoscale model urban boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban representation
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Flagg D.D.; Taylor P.A. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada)) during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forec ...Long-term analysis of carbon dioxide and methane column-averaged mole fractions retrieved from SCIAMACHY
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Schneising O.; Buchwitz M.; Reuter M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributing to global climate change. SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (launch 2002) was the first and is now with TANSO onboard GOSAT (launch 2009) one of only two satellite instruments currently in space whose measurements are sensitive to CO2 and CH4 concentration changes in the lowest atmospheric layers where the variability due to sources and sinks is largest.Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Russo M.R.; Marécal V.; Hoyle C.R.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal c ...
Joint WMO/ IOC for Oceanographic and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting
The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of an increasing number of maritime countries are actively engaged in the provision of storm surge forecast services for a wide range of maritime and coastal activities, in particular for coastal defense, shipping, fisheries, offshore mining, commerce, coastal engineering, construction and recreation. This guide draws attention to vulnerabilities in coastal areas exposed to storm surges by focusing on risk forecasting, in addition to hazard forecasting.WWRP, 2011-3. WWRP/ETRP Workshop on Operational Monsoon Research and Forecast Issues : lecture notes
CAWCR technical report, 46. Abstracts of the Fifth International Verification Methods Workshop, 1 - 7 December 2011, Melbourne, Australia
This year's scientific workshop offers a stimulating and informative array of presentations on forecast verification relevant to a variety of topics including ensemble and probability forecasts, seasonal forecast and climate projections, aviation forecasts, user-focused verification, tropical cyclones and high impact weather forecasts and warnings, as well as methodologies and issues that apply to many areas. The workshop features five keynote talks by international experts, as well as a public lecture by renowned climate researcher, Professor Neville Nicholls of Monash University on, "Can wea ...CAWCR technical report, 40. Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Charles Andrew; Hendon Harry H.; Wang Q.J.; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information ab ...Satellite Meteorology: GOES Channel Selection V2
This module is an update to the previous Satellite Meteorology: GOES Channel Selection module. It reviews the five GOES imager channels and their use, incorporating conceptual visualizations and numerous imagery examples. The module also includes updated information on improvements for the GOES-13, -14 and -15 satellites. Highlights include a higher resolution 13.3 micrometer CO2 channel (GOES-14 & -15), modified spectral response of the visible channel, improved radiometric performance and pixel geolocation, and shortened data outages during the fall and spring satellite eclipse periods.ASMET: Satellite Precipitation Products for Hydrological Management in Southern Africa
This module introduces a variety of meteorological and hydrological products that can improve the quality of heavy rainfall forecasts and assist with hydrological management during extensive precipitation events in Southern Africa. Among the products are the satellite-based ASCAT, SMOS, and ASAR GM soil moisture products and the hydro-estimator. The products are presented within the context of a case, the flooding of South Africa's Vaal Dam region in 2009/2010.Optimizing the Use of Model Data Products
Each model forecast tells a story about the weather events to unfold. As a forecaster, you employ diagnostics to understand and interpret that story, in order to modify it, blend it with other stories, and generate your own forecast. This lesson will help you sift through the abundance of model data so you can understand and interpret the model’s story. Other lessons cover evaluating the model’s story against observations and against your conceptual models of the evolving situation, blending the stories, and adjusting the forecast to add value over an objective forecast. The diagnostic approac ...Volcanic Ash: Observation Tools and Dispersion Models
This module is the fourth and final entry in the Volcanic Ash series. It covers the tools and techniques used for identifying and forecasting the transport of volcanic ash. Satellite and radar imagery are combined with observations and numerical model output to first identify the presence of volcanic ash and then to help forecast the transport of ash at various levels of the atmosphere.Preparing to Evaluate NWP Models
This lesson prepares the forecaster to evaluate NWP analyses and forecasts using physically based conceptual models of the atmosphere, and the "Vertical Phenomenon Analysis Funnel". This funnel divides the atmosphere into three sections: lower stratosphere and tropopause, mid-to-upper troposphere, and lower troposphere. We discuss tools to use and atmospheric features to assess for each section of the atmosphere, using interactive case examples, and summarize the methodology with a comprehensive example. Finally, we compare model capabilities and the time and space scales of assessment tools u ...CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 27. 27th session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE-27)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) ; et al. - WMO, 2011CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 26. 26th session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE-26)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Jakob Christian; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); et al. - WMO, 2011
Assessement of selected global models in short range forecasting over West Africa: case study of Senegal
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; ANAMS ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - WMO, 2011Severe weather events in West Africa are associated mainly with meso-scale thunderstorms and squall lines. Forecasting such severe weather to reduce the risk of hazards is one of the challenges faced by many met services. However, the recent progress in the area of numerical weather prediction has enabled some countries to forecast these events in a better way.
Due to lack of capacity, many of the West African countries were not able to use numerical weather prediction systems effectively in their day to day forecasting activities. The CPC/African Desk has been playing big role in buil ...Prediction from Weeks to Decades
This white paper is a synthesis of several recent workshops, reports and published literature: (Smith et al., 2011; Anderson et al. 2011; Weller et al. 2010; Meehl et al. 2009; Hurrell et al. 2009; Shukla et al. 2010 and Brunet et al. 2010). The intent is to document: (i) the scientific basis for prediction from weeks to decades; (ii) current capabilities; and (iii) outstanding challenges. We focus on time--‐scales from beyond the time scale of deterministic weather (i.e., sub--‐seasonal) to decadal.Forecast Study of the Cold December of 2005 in Japan: Role of Rossby Waves and Tropical Convection
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Inaba Morio; Kodera Kunihiko - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010Japan experienced unusually heavy snowfall and low temperatures in December 2005 owing to the cold air advected from Siberia. As a result of this strong and sustained cold surge, record-breaking snowfalls occurred repeatedly along the coast of the Sea of Japan. To determine the cause and to examine the accuracy of numerical forecasts of such unusual weather as well as to investigate the impact of initial and boundary conditions on the forecasts, we conducted one-month ensemble forecasts for December 2005 by changing lower boundary conditions, such as sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice c ...62 - April 2010 - WWRP 北京オリンピック2008 予報実証/研究開発プロジェクト = WWRP BeijingOlympics 2008 Forecast Demonstration/Research and Development Project (B08FDP/RDP)
is an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Saito Kazuo; Kunii Masaru; Hara Masahiro - Meteorological Research Institute, 2010This technical report describes modeling activities by the Meteorological Research Institute
(MRI) for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project/Research and
Development Project (B08FDP/RDP). MRI participated in B08RDP in collaboration with the
Numerical Prediction Division (NPD) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (NPD/JMA).61 - March 2010 - 強雨をもたらす線状降水帯の形成機構等の解明及び降水強度・移動速度の予測に関する研究 = Studies on formation process of line-shaped rainfall systems and predictability of rainfall intensity and moving speed
Autoclaved natural seawater collected in the North Pacific Ocean was used as a reference material for nutrients in seawater (RMNS) during an inter-laboratory comparison (I/C) study conducted in 2008. This study was a follow-up to previous studies conducted in 2003 and 2006. A set of six samples was distributed to each of 58 laboratories in 15 countries around the globe, and results were returned by 54 of those laboratories (15 countries). The homogeneities of samples used in the 2008 I/C study, based on analyses for three determinants, were improved compared to those of samples used in the 200 ...Vol. 88. No 3 - June 2010
is an issue of Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010Contains:
- Mechanisms of Temporary Improvement and Rapid Changes in Visibility in Fogs
- Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Approaching Japan due to Anthropogenic Warming in Sea Surface and Upper-Air Temperatures
- Convective Boundary Layer above a Subtropical Island Observed by C-band Radar and Interpretation using a Cloud Resolving Model
- Role of Large-Scale Circulation in Triggering Foehns in the Hokuriku District of Japan during Midsummer
- Diurnal Variations in Lower-Tropospheric Wind over Japan ...A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot
The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. Thi ...Adding Value to NWP Guidance
The purpose of this module is to train operational meteorologists at NWS WFOs and elsewhere how to maximize opportunities to add value to NWP forecasts. The training includes use of the methods and tools from earlier modules in Course 2 of Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process. Included in the module are two case examples for the short- and medium-range. Additionally, a WES "caselet" is available from the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch that further illustrates how to add value to NWP guidance.Radar Signatures for Severe Convective Weather
This resource is intended for use as a job aid by operational weather forecasters in live warning situations and as a reference tool to better understand some aspects of severe thunderstorm warning events. Thumbnail images show typical representatives for sixteen radar reflectivity and velocity signatures as well as three primary severe storm types. Each signature links to content describing detection techniques and conceptual and diagnostic information to help determine storm severity. The majority of the examples shown are southern hemisphere storms in Australia; examples from the northern h ...Determining Plausible Forecast Outcomes
The content of this lesson will assist the forecaster with the third step of the forecast process, namely, determining plausible forecast outcomes forward in time. The lesson will highlight the role of probabilistic forecast tools to assess the degree of uncertainty in a forecast, as well as suggest an approach for evaluating past and present model performance.How NWP Fits into the Forecast Process
This introductory module presents the basis for the other modules in the new NWP Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process. We present the four steps in the forecast process, as determined by best practices in U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). Then we show the module topics and summarize how to navigate through the course.Analysis, Diagnosis, and Short-Range Forecast Tools
This lesson is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the importance of analysis and diagnosis in evaluating NWP in the forecast process. In section two, we discuss a methodology for dealing with discrepancies between both the official forecast and NWP compared to analysis and diagnosis. The third section shows a representative example of the methodology.Bias Correction of NWP Model Data
The lesson "Bias Correction of NWP Model Data" first describes what affects bias in NWP models: regime continuity, timing of features that affect sensible weather, and existence (or not) of those features in the models. After discussing examples of each of these, three bias correction methods are presented: Model Output Statistics (MOS), decaying average, and a SmartInit tool developed at the Boise ID WFO called BOIVerify. Situations where each perform well and each perform poorly are discussed. Finally, after a comprehensive review question and feedback, a summary and series of points to reme ...QPF Verification: Challenges and Tools
This module looks at the common challenges and tools with respect to verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). Through the use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module provides an introduction to a variety of methods and approaches for assessing the quality of QPFs. The module examines the need for, and the challenges of verifying precipitation forecasts. An overview is then presented of three verification programs available to most NWS forecast offices: the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) verification, the National Precipitation Verificati ...Downscaling of NWP Data
Forecasters utilize downscaled NWP products when producing forecasts of predictable features, such as terrain-related and coastal features, at finer resolution than provided by most NWP models directly. This lesson is designed to help the forecaster determine which downscaled products are most appropriate for a given forecast situation and the types of further corrections the forecaster will have to create. This module engages the learner through interactive case examples illustrating and comparing the major capabilities and limitations of some commonly-used downscaled products for 2-m tempera ...Forecasting Dust Storms - Version 2
Forecasting Dust Storms Version 2 provides background and operational information about dust storms. The first part of the module describes dust source regions, the life cycle of a dust storm, and the major types of dust storms, particularly those found in the Middle East. The second part presents a process for forecasting dust storms and applies it to a case in the Middle East. Although the process refers to U.S. Department of Defense models and tools, it can easily be adapted to other forecast requirements and data sources. Note that this module is an updated version of the original one publ ...Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 2: Tropical Remote Sensing Applications
This chapter covers remote sensing, the primary method of observing weather and climate across the global tropics. Learners will become familiar with the scientific basis and applications of radar and satellite remote sensing from examples in which clouds and precipitation are observed by measuring microwave signals using ground-based radar, spaceborne radar, and satellite radiometers. Wind estimation, dust and volcanic ash tracking, vertical sounding techniques, and remote measurement of sea-surface, soil and land surface properties are also covered.Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 9: Observations, Analysis, and Prediction
The chapter describes the challenges of tropical weather forecasting. We examine types of observations and weather analysis techniques used by tropical forecasters. Those analysis tools are applied to examples of tropical synoptic weather systems as well as mesoscale analysis and nowcasting. The last three sections focus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) including: the fundamentals, data assimilation, comparisons of statistical and dynamical models, ensemble techniques, cumulus convection in NWP, tropical cyclone prediction, and methods of forecast verification and validation. We have spec ...Precipitation Estimates, Part 2: Analysis
This is part two of a two-module series on estimation of observed precipitation. Through the use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module provides an introduction to the science behind successful application of the products and tools available through the NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software and related products. An overview is presented of the key fields available in MPE along with illustrations of their use. These include radar, gauge, satellite, bias-adjusted radar, and multisensor fields of precipitation accumulation along with data displays and ta ...Understanding the Role of Deterministic versus Probabilistic NWP Information
Understanding the Role of Deterministic versus Probabilistic NWP Information is part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process." This lesson first covers deterministic (single) NWP model forecasts and explains advantages and limitations through a case example. Then it discusses overcoming the limitations in deterministic forecasts through the use of ensemble forecast systems, and the use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts together, through case examples.Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 5: The Distribution of Moisture and Precipitation
Moisture and precipitation distribution governs life in the tropics. Surplus heating and rising motion in the tropics ignites the global water and energy cycles and influences weather in the midlatitudes. This chapter presents the horizontal and vertical distribution of water vapor, tropical cloud formation and distribution, the lifecycle and precipitation characteristics of tropical mesoscale convective systems, and the variability of tropical precipitation on yearly, seasonal, and hourly time-scales.Effective Use of High-Resolution Models
High-resolution models have transitioned from research into forecast operations, helping forecasters utilize additional mesoscale information after accounting for the inherent unpredictability of many small-scale phenomena. This module covers the major capabilities and limitations of models run without a convective parameterization using grid spacings of around 4 km or less. Model forecast interpretation issues are discussed, including introducing convective mode diagnostics such as updraft helicity and interpreting the forecast as an event prediction rather than as a precise point forecast. M ...Toward an Advanced Sounder on GOES?
This module uses recorded interviews from several satellite meteorologists and respected satellite experts to describe how a high spectral resolution infrared sounder in geostationary orbit would lead to significant improvements in mesoscale and severe weather forecasting and numerical weather prediction. Discussions focus on the currently unsatisfied need for an advanced sounder in geostationary orbit and the potential contributions this capability could provide.
PWS-SG, 01. Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
This summary guide is for forecasters who are required to include uncertainty information in weather and climate forecasts and want to know the best way to present it. It provides advice on communicating probability forecasts, or other kinds of uncertainty information.
Add tag 
