Традиционная концепция детерминистических ограничений подвергается сомнению путем рассмотрения возможности определенной успешности прогнозирования во всех временных масштабах от часов до[article]
in Бюллетень > Том 61 (1) (2012 г.) . - p.33-36
Традиционная концепция детерминистических ограничений подвергается сомнению путем рассмотрения возможности определенной успешности прогнозирования во всех временных масштабах от часов до
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy[article]Published by: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ; 2013
Seasonal Forecast Verification in the Pacific using a coupled model POAMA and the statistical model SCOPIC
Collection(s) and Series: CAWCR technical report- No. 67
Format: Digital (Free)The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is a new coupled ocean and atmosphere climate modelling system being developed at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR). ACCESS uses the UK Met Office Unified Model (Met UM, Davies et al. 2005) as its atmospheric component, which is coupled with the GFDL Ocean Model version 4.1 (MOM4p1, Griffies et al. 2009) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory Sea Ice Model version 4.1 (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010), using the numerical coupler OASIS3.25 (Valcke 2006). The development of ACCESS has followed ...Published by: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ; 2013
Improvements in atmospheric physical parameterizations for the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS)
The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is a new coupled ocean and atmosphere climate modelling system being developed at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR). ACCESS uses the UK Met Office Unified Model (Met UM, Davies et al. 2005) as its atmospheric component, which is coupled with the GFDL Ocean Model version 4.1 (MOM4p1, Griffies et al. 2009) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory Sea Ice Model version 4.1 (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010), using the numerical coupler OASIS3.25 (Valcke 2006). The development of ACCESS has followed the implementation of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system developed by the UK Met Office which uses the Met UM for atmospheric prediction with a 4-DVAR assimilation system [...].
Collection(s) and Series: CAWCR technical report- No. 61
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyECMWF, 2013Published by: ECMWF ; 2013
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyThe hazards associated with convective systems present some of the most dangerous conditions encountered by aircraft and pose many challenges to aviation operations. When convection is forecast to develop, aviation forecasters are required to issue a series of warning messages and other meteorological aeronautical products to various members of the aviation community. This lesson teaches these forecasters how to produce the products, doing so in the context of a case study in which learners assume the role of aeronautical forecaster on duty at the airport in Niamey, Niger on a night when conve ...Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2013
The hazards associated with convective systems present some of the most dangerous conditions encountered by aircraft and pose many challenges to aviation operations. When convection is forecast to develop, aviation forecasters are required to issue a series of warning messages and other meteorological aeronautical products to various members of the aviation community. This lesson teaches these forecasters how to produce the products, doing so in the context of a case study in which learners assume the role of aeronautical forecaster on duty at the airport in Niamey, Niger on a night when convection develops. The lesson is one of three aviation weather case studies developed by the ASMET team to improve aviation forecasting in Africa.
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Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)This lesson describes current and future satellites sensors and products used for monitoring the fire cycle, with an emphasis on polar-orbiting satellites. Product information is presented in the context of the fire lifecycle: from assessing the pre- and post-fire environment to detecting and monitoring active fires, smoke, and aerosols. Product information is also consolidated in the Fire Product Suite. The lesson concludes with an interactive fire case study, supplemented with observations from a National Weather Service trainer/forecaster who experienced the fire. The lesson is intended for ...PermalinkTurbulence is a major concern for the aviation industry. It often goes undetected in cloud-free areas, catching pilots off guard when they fly into it. Turbulence can injure passengers and crew, and cause structural damage to aircraft. This makes it critical for aviation weather forecasters to closely monitor the atmosphere for signs of turbulence and issue special warnings when it is likely to be present. This lesson helps prepare forecasters for these tasks by providing general information about turbulence and showing them how to detect it using satellite imagery, tephigrams, and NWP product ...PermalinkThis lesson provides an overview of meteorological and environmental RGB products, namely, how they are constructed and how to use them. The first half provides background information on the RGB development process and the rapid evolution of RGB products as newer geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imagers incorporate additional spectral channels. The second half of the lesson, the Applications section, focuses on the formulation and uses of RGB products; providing examples, interpretation exercises, satellite specific information, and other background information for many of the common ...PermalinkThis module provides examples of radar imagery from various locations in the Caribbean to demonstrate the different types of images available. Also, examples of different meteorological and non meteorological features are presented to show features seen in island locations.PermalinkThis module applies concepts covered in the module, Fog: Its Processes and Impacts to Aviation. It examines the fog processes at a tropical location: Guyana. A basic overview of the main fog types is provided, and then a detailed analysis is done for a representative fog event at the Cheddi Jagan International Airport in Guyana. Conclusions are made about fog processes in Guyana which can then be applied to forecasting for aviation impacts.PermalinkThis lesson aims to improve aviation forecasts of fog in the African airspace by teaching forecasters to make more accurate forecasts using satellite imagery, numerical weather prediction, and other available data. A process for diagnosing and forecasting fog is presented and applied to a case over the Nairobi, Kenya region. Learners assume the role of aviation forecaster, analysing various products to determine whether the current Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) is valid or needs to be amended. The lesson is intended for aviation forecasters, general weather forecasters interested in aviati ...PermalinkThis lesson introduces the VIIRS imager that operates on the current U.S. Suomi NPP satellite and is planned for future JPSS environmental satellites. VIIRS has many advanced features that improve both spectral and spatial resolution and enable the delivery of consistent, high quality, and high resolution data to users worldwide. The lesson covers the enhanced capabilities of VIIRS and highlights some of its applications. These include single channel and multispectral products used to monitor dust, volcanic ash, convection, fog and low clouds, sea surface temperature, tropical cyclones, contra ...PermalinkThis module provides an introduction to ensemble forecast systems with an operational case study of Hurricane Sandy. The module concentrates on models from NCEP and FNMOC available to forecasters in the U.S. Navy, including NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), and NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability). Probabilistic forecasts of winds and waves developed from these ensemble forecast systems are applied to a ship transit and coastal resource protection. Lessons integrated in the case study provide information on ensemble statistics, products, bias correction and ...PermalinkThis module presents radar case studies taken from events in the Caribbean that highlight radar signatures of severe weather. These cases include examples of deep convection, squall lines, bow echoes, tornadoes, and heavy rain resulting in flooding. Each case study includes a discussion of the conceptual models of each type of event as a review before showing the radar signatures and allowing the learner to analyze each one.PermalinkWe think in three-dimensional space and a fourth dimension, time. Therefore, we should think about the atmosphere in similar terms. However, we are often stuck with two-dimensional maps. Water vapor imagery can help us break out of that flatland and move to more dimensions. This imagery holds so much under-utilized potential. We can actually see three-dimensional structures evolving in near-real-time. And if we have a good handle on the current three-dimensional structure, we can then use NWP to its fullest as a verification/interrogation instrument for our 3D mental model. Come see the atmosp ...PermalinkMesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) occur globally and can account for significant percentages of the annual precipitation in some locations. MCSs are responsible for flooding as well as damaging surface winds in some instances. Thus, it is important for forecasters to understand when, where, and how MCSs develop and maintain themselves. This module covers all modes of MCSs with a strong focus on the tropics and the different aspects that brings to MCS development, maintenance, and structure. It describes conceptual models of MCSs and the dynamical and physical processes that influence their e ...PermalinkThis extension of the COMET lesson “GOES-R: Benefits of Next Generation Environmental Monitoring” focuses on the ABI instrument, the satellite's 16-channel imager. With increased spectral coverage, greater spatial resolution, more frequent imaging, and improved image pixel geolocation and radiometric performance, the ABI will bring significant advancements to forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and climate and environmental monitoring. The first part of the lesson introduces the ABI's key features and improvements over earlier GOES imagers. The second section lets users interactively ex ...PermalinkThis lesson is an update to the 2008 expert lecture on hyperspectral observations presented by Dr. Mitch Goldberg, Program Scientist for NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Program. The lesson discusses what hyperspectral observations are, how they are made, some current products, their contributions to improved monitoring of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces, as well as their impact on numerical weather prediction. The lesson begins by discussing the importance of satellite observing systems. From there, it reviews the principles of remote sensing that are needed for deriving p ...PermalinkThis Regional Study Guide highlights the sections of the Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition online textbook that are applicable to aeronautical forecasting operations in Africa. Topics include remote sensing, global circulations, tropical variability, tropical cyclones and the challenges encountered when forecasting tropical weather. The guide consists of a list of links to the content in the textbook and has its own stand-alone quiz.PermalinkThis lesson illustrates how numerical guidance from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model - Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS) can be added to surface observations, satellite graphics, and conceptual models of important aviation phenomena, to produce TAFs. Specifically, the lesson describes how visibility, cloud ceilings, and the flight categories variables provide values for aviation forecasts in Africa.PermalinkNowcasting for Aviation in Africa summarizes techniques and best practices for developing area-specific forecasts at very short (0-6 hour) timescales. This 1-hour lesson presents a case study focused on interpreting threats and communicating correct warning information for a weather event affecting multiple airports in Gauteng Province, South Africa. In completing the lesson, the learner will assess the state of the atmosphere, develop a nowcast, monitor conditions, and update/create appropriate nowcast products for aviation stakeholders.PermalinkPermalinkGreat progress has been made in recent decades on development and applications of medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. The subseasonal to seasonal project will bring the weather and climate communities together to tackle the intervening time range, harnessing shared and complementary experience and expertise in forecasting, research and applications, toward more seamless weather/climate prediction systems and more integrated weather and climate services.PermalinkOur ability to reduce disaster risk relies on the full engagement of local governments. When national and local governments work together, they can be a formidable alliance for risk reduction.PermalinkCottrill A.; Hendon Harry H.; Lim Eun-Pa; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2012The tropical Pacific Ocean basin is home to over 20 Pacific Island nations, many of which are sensitive to climate extremes from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rainfall variability associated the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the South Pacific Convergence Zone. These Pacific Island countries are highly dependent on agriculture, fishing and tourism as a major source of food production and income, which can vary greatly depending on the weather and climate experienced from year to year. Hence, the provision of skilful seasonal forecasts is important to allow these countries to ...PermalinkThe subseasonal to seasonal timescale provides a unique opportunity to capitalise on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities, and to bring them together to improve predictions on a timescale of particular relevance to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). A planning group which included representatives from WWRP/THORPEX, WCRP, CBS and CCl drafted the implementation plan, giving high priority to establishing collaboration and co-ordination between operational centres and the research community involved in subseasonal to seasonal prediction, and to sponsorship o ...PermalinkThe 5th WMO workshop on the impact of various observing systems on numerical weather prediction (NWP) was held 22-25 May 2012 in Sedona, Arizona (United States). The Workshop was hosted for WMO by the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, and additional financial support was provided by THORPEX, NASA, and NOAA (GOES-R Program Office). The WMO Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System (ET-EGOS) had proposed topics for NWP impact studies (Appendix I) relevant to the evolution of global observing systems (GOS) and participants were encouraged to present results on ...PermalinkACMAD, 2012PermalinkThis module presents an overview of space-based microwave remote sensing for environmental applications with a focus on meteorological applications. It delivers basic information on polar-orbiting satellite characteristics, current microwave instruments, and the products they provide. Special attention is given to the newer capabilities of the U.S.’s Suomi NPP (National Polar-orbiting Partnership) and future JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) satellites with additional information included for those missions being operated by international partners. This module also serves as an introduction ...PermalinkTo become a better forecaster, it is not enough to simply know that a forecast did not verify. One must determine what happened and identify methods for improvement through forecast verification. The forecast verification process helps answer questions like: Is there a particular method that has been more effective in the past in similar circumstances? Is there guidance that is more accurate? Are there persistent biases in our forecasts? Do our forecasts perform better in certain regimes than others? In the era of gridded forecasts, grid-based verification provides more information about the s ...PermalinkThe Satellite Feature Identification: Atmospheric Rivers lesson presents the global moisture transport phenomenon known as the Atmospheric River (AR). ARs are responsible for transporting the majority of maritime moisture from low to middle latitudes. Advanced satellite products, including Integrated Water Vapor and Total Precipitable Water, provide excellent observations of AR development and evolution. This lesson demonstrates the usefulness of these products in forecasting the impacts of ARs, especially when they are combined with numerical weather prediction products. Several AR case studi ...PermalinkThe module reviews the fundamental steps for writing a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) using guidelines and recommendations developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This module outlines effective forecast methodologies to develop TAFs that represent the expected conditions that aviation customers can use to make operational decisions and minimize unnecessary costs. The module walks users through the process of analysis of satellite, surface, and observational data to create a TAF forecast for an airport in the Caribbea ...PermalinkThe second edition of the popular "Remote Sensing Using Satellites" module updates imagery of recent hurricanes as well as other phenomena from more recent satellites. The suggested audience for this module is high school and undergraduate students. Learn about remote sensing in general and then more specifically about how it is done from satellites. We will focus on the visible and infrared channels, those commonly seen on television broadcasts. Come explore the view of Earth from space and see what we see. In the second chapter, we will focus even more on hurricanes and specifically Hurrican ...PermalinkThe international science community has identified a set of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) that should be monitored for measuring the climate system, how it is changing, and its likely impact on future climate. Environmental satellites play an important role in this effort. They are uniquely positioned to provide broad, spatially consistent, and continuous global sampling of many of the ECVs. This module explores the benefits of monitoring the climate system with satellites. We begin by reviewing how satellites observe key atmospheric elements and features that are found in a variety of cl ...PermalinkThis module explains how climate models work. Because the modeling of both weather and climate share many similarities, the content throughout this module draws frequent comparisons and highlights the differences. We explain not only how, but why climate models differ from weather models. To do so, we explore the difference between weather and climate, then show how models are built to simulate climate and generate the statistics that describe it. We conclude with a discussion of models are tuned and tested. Understanding how climate responds to changes in atmospheric composition and other fac ...PermalinkThis lesson, Satellite Feature Identification: Cyclogenesis, uses water vapor satellite imagery to present a satellite perspective of basic features associated with the formation and development of extratropical cyclones. First, through an initial case study, the precursor elements leading to cyclogenesis are identified. Then three conceptual views of different ways cyclogenesis can evolve are presented along with additional examples to illustrate the concepts. Finally a series of exercises, again using real case studies, are used to emphasize the important points and provide realistic scenari ...PermalinkSatellite monitoring of atmospheric composition provides important information for a number of applications, including stratospheric ozone monitoring, long-range pollutant transport, biomass burning, air quality monitoring and forecasting, and climate change. This module provides an overview of the use of satellites in these application areas, the measurement techniques used, and the development of related operational services. In addition, the module covers a short history of European and U.S. satellite missions, as well as a look at future missions planned for monitoring atmospheric composit ...PermalinkThis module introduces the VIIRS imager that was launched on the Suomi NPP (National Polar-orbiting Partnership) satellite in October 2011 and will fly on future U.S. JPSS weather satellites. The VIIRS imager has many advanced features that improve both spectral and spatial resolution. Together with modernized data communication and processing systems, VIIRS will provide consistent, high quality, and high resolution data to users. The module covers the enhanced capabilities of VIIRS by examining the systems that contributed to its development. Special attention is paid to the Day/Night Visible ...PermalinkThe rainy season in Sahelian West Africa extends from June to September and is tied to the position of the intertropical front. During this period, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) often produce significant rainfall that can lead to flooding. This module examines an extreme flooding event that occurred in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from 31 August to 1 September 2009. Learners assume the role of forecaster, assessing meteorological conditions to see if an MCS will develop that can lead to heavy rain and flooding. They follow a forecast process that emphasizes the use of satellite data, standa ...PermalinkAtmospheric dust storms are common in many of the world's semi-arid and arid regions and can impact local, regional, and even global weather, agriculture, public health, transportation, industry, and ocean health. This module takes a multifaceted approach to studying atmospheric dust storms. The first chapter examines the impacts of dust storms, the physical processes involved in their life cycle, their source regions, and their climatology. The second chapter explores satellite products (notably dust RGBs) and dust models used for dust detection and monitoring, and presents a process for fore ...PermalinkThis 2-hour module presents the fundamental principles of Doppler weather radar operation and how to interpret common weather phenomena using radar imagery. This is accomplished via conceptual animations and many interactive radar examples in which the user can practice interpreting both radar reflectivity and radar velocity imagery. Although intended as an accelerated introduction to understanding and using basic Doppler weather radar products, the module can also serve as an excellent refresher for more experienced users.PermalinkThe Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership or Suomi NPP satellite, launched in 2011, is the first of a new series of missions under NOAA's JPSS program. Suomi NPP has two major goals: global observing of the Earth's atmosphere, land, and ocean surface; and climate monitoring. Suomi NPP observations are used to create operational forecast products and provide input to numerical weather prediction models. They also provide continuity to the satellite climate record and other environmental datasets. This module provides an overview of the Suomi NPP satellite. The first half describes its missi ...PermalinkThe module examines the 2009 drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), focusing on conditions in Kenya. The module begins by reviewing drought conditions in the years leading up to 2009. From there, it examines the seasonal climate forecast for the beginning of 2009 and see what it portends. Satellite products are used to study rainfall performance throughout the year and its impact on the drought situation. Finally, the module describes the climate oscillations that can impact drought in the GHA and identifies patterns that were present in 2009 and contributed to its severity. By the end o ...PermalinkLes systèmes de prévision d’ensemble sont des systèmes de prévision numérique du temps qui nous permettent d’évaluer l’incertitude des prévisions météorologiques ainsi que leurs incidences les plus probables. Au lieu de faire tourner le modèle de prévision numérique une seule fois (prévision déterministe), on le fait tourner plusieurs fois avec des conditions initiales très légèrement différentes. Souvent, la physique du modèle est un peu perturbée et, dans certains ensembles, on fait appel à plusieurs modèles (systèmes de prévision d’ensemble multimodèle) ou à un seul modèle mais avec d ...PermalinkThe TIGGE-LAM panel was set up by the GIFS-TIGGE working group to coordinate the contribution from Limited Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, Bougeault et al. 2010) and to the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System). After a couple of years of activity, the Panel was requested by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. Furth ...PermalinkSeveral studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria ...PermalinkEnsemble Prediction Systems (EPS) are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that allow us to estimate the uncertainty in a weather forecast as well as the most likely outcome. Instead of running the NWP model once (a deterministic forecast), the model is run many times from very slightly different initial conditions. Often the model physics is also slightly perturbed, and some ensembles use more than one model within the ensemble (multi-model EPS) or the same model but with different combinations of physical parameterization schemes (multi-physics EPS). Owing to the cost of running ...PermalinkWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) - WMO, 2012Cloud errors can have wide-reaching impacts on the accuracy and quality of outcomes, most notably, but not exclusively, on temperature. This is especially true for weather forecasting, where cloud cover has a significant impact on human comfort and wellbeing. Whilst public perception may not be interested in absolute precision, i.e. whether there were 3 or 5 okta of cloud, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest strong links between the perceptions of overall forecast accuracy and whether the cloud was forecast correctly, mostly because temperature errors often go hand-in-hand. It is therefore ...PermalinkThe ninth session of the CAS International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) for THORPEX was held at the World Meteorological Organization Geneva from the 21-22 September 2011. The ICSC proceeded with the work assigned by the CAS, the WMO Executive Council and the World Meteorological Congress. This included reviews of the progress in planning and further development of THORPEX on the global and regional level, financial and administrative matters related to THORPEX management, the International Programme Office (IPO) and the Trust Fund. All documents and presentations considered and discussed at ...PermalinkThe TIGGE-LAM panel was set up by the GIFS-TIGGE working group to coordinate the contribution from Limited Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, Bougeault et al. 2010) and to the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System). After a couple of years of activity, the Panel was requested by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. Furth ...Permalink