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WWRP/THORPEX, 18. International Core Steering Committee for THORPEX : final report
The TIGGE-LAM panel was set up by the GIFS-TIGGE working group to coordinate the contribution from Limited Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, Bougeault et al. 2010) and to the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System). After a couple of years of activity, the Panel was requested by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. Furth ...
Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria ...
Guidelines on Ensemble Prediction Systems and Forecasting
Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that allow us to estimate the uncertainty in a weather forecast as well as the most likely outcome. Instead of running the NWP model once (a deterministic forecast), the model is run many times from very slightly different initial conditions. Often the model physics is also slightly perturbed, and some ensembles use more than one model within the ensemble (multi-model EPS) or the same model but with different combinations of physical parameterization schemes (multi-physics EPS). Owing to the cost of running ...
WWRP, 2012-1. Recommended Methods for Evaluating Cloud and Related Parameters
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) - WMO, 2012Cloud errors can have wide-reaching impacts on the accuracy and quality of outcomes, most notably, but not exclusively, on temperature. This is especially true for weather forecasting, where cloud cover has a significant impact on human comfort and wellbeing. Whilst public perception may not be interested in absolute precision, i.e. whether there were 3 or 5 okta of cloud, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest strong links between the perceptions of overall forecast accuracy and whether the cloud was forecast correctly, mostly because temperature errors often go hand-in-hand. It is therefore ...
WWRP/THORPEX, 16. International core steering committee for THORPEX - Ninth session : final report
The ninth session of the CAS International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) for THORPEX was held at the World Meteorological Organization Geneva from the 21-22 September 2011. The ICSC proceeded with the work assigned by the CAS, the WMO Executive Council and the World Meteorological Congress. This included reviews of the progress in planning and further development of THORPEX on the global and regional level, financial and administrative matters related to THORPEX management, the International Programme Office (IPO) and the Trust Fund. All documents and presentations considered and discussed at ...
WWRP/THORPEX, 17. THORPEX Interactive Research Grand Global Ensemble - Limited Area Model Plan (TIGGE LAM)
The TIGGE-LAM panel was set up by the GIFS-TIGGE working group to coordinate the contribution from Limited Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, Bougeault et al. 2010) and to the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System). After a couple of years of activity, the Panel was requested by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. Furth ...
Руководящие указания по системам ансамблевого прогнозирования и прогнозированию
Системы ансамблевого прогнозирования (САП) представляют собой системы численного прогнозирования погоды (ЧПП), которые позволяют нам оценивать неопределенность в прогнозе погоды, а также наиболее вероятный исход. Вместо прогона модели ЧПП один раз (детерминированный прогноз) модель прогоняется много раз с несколько разными исходными условиями. Во многих случаях физика модели бывает также несколько возмущенной, а некоторые ансамбли используют более одной модели внутри ансамбля (мультимодельная САП) или одну и ту же модель, но с различными комбинациями схем физической параметризации (мул ...
Directrices sobre los sistemas de predicción por conjuntos y la predicción
Los sistemas de predicción por conjuntos son sistemas de predicción numérica del tiempo (PNT) que permiten estimar la incertidumbre de una predicción meteorológica, así como el desenlace más probable del proceso predicho. En lugar de ejecutar el modelo de PNT una sola vez (predicción determinística), se ejecuta numerosas veces partiendo de condiciones iniciales ligeramente diferentes. Con frecuencia se introduce también una ligera perturbación en los parámetros físicos del modelo, y algunos conjuntos hacen uso de más de un modelo (sistema de predicción por conjuntos multimodelo), o bien ...
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Mejora en la alerta de ciclones. Caso práctico: Filipinas
Mejorar la predicción de los ciclones es uno de los objetivos de la investigación meteorológica internacional. Este caso práctico de un tifón de 2009 que estuvo a punto de impactar sobre Filipinas ofrece una perspectiva del alcance de la predicción por conjuntos.
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Las predicciones se volverán más sutiles: Entrevista con Eugenia Kalnay
Boletín, Vol. 59(2). OMM, 2011El hecho de contar con mejores predicciones representa un importantísimo logro científico, y estas predicciones se tornarán más sutiles, tal y como defiende Eugenia Kalnay, ganadora del Premio de la Organización Meteorológica Internacional de 2009. La OMM ha estado en primera línea de la colaboración para hacer que esto sea posible. La obtención de noticias acerca de predicciones para la audiencia adecuada constituye el siguiente desafío.
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US Weather Satellites saw tornado swarm coming 5 days out
SAN FRANCISCO — Five days before approximately 200 tornadoes swept through six states in the Southeastern United States between April 25 and April 28, local meteorologists were alerted to the possibility of unusually severe weather by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data.
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The effect of meteorological and chemical factors on the agreement between observations and predictions of fine aerosol composition in southwestern Ontario during BAQS-Met
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Markovic M.Z.; Hayden K.L.; Murphy J.G.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) was an intensive, collaborative field campaign during the summer of 2007 that investigated the effects of transboundary pollution, local pollution, and local meteorology on air quality in southwestern Ontario. This analysis focuses on the measurements of the inorganic constituents of particulate matter with diameter of less than 1 μm (PM1), with a specific emphasis on nitrate. We evaluate the ability of AURAMS, Environment Canada's chemical transport model, to represent regional air pollution in SW Ontario by comparing modelled aerosol in ...
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Impact of model grid spacing on regional- and urban- scale air quality predictions of organic aerosol
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Stroud C.A.; Makar P.A.; Moran M.D.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Regional-scale chemical transport model predictions of urban organic aerosol to date tend to be biased low relative to observations, a limitation with important implications for applying such models to human exposure health studies. We used a nested version of Environment Canada's AURAMS model (42- to- 15- to- 2.5-km nested grid spacing) to predict organic aerosol concentrations for a temporal and spatial domain corresponding to the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met), an air-quality field study that took place in the southern Great Lakes region in the summer of 2007. The use o ...
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Sensitivity of mesoscale model urban boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban representation
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Flagg D.D.; Taylor P.A. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada)) during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forec ...
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Long-term analysis of carbon dioxide and methane column-averaged mole fractions retrieved from SCIAMACHY
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Schneising O.; Buchwitz M.; Reuter M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributing to global climate change. SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (launch 2002) was the first and is now with TANSO onboard GOSAT (launch 2009) one of only two satellite instruments currently in space whose measurements are sensitive to CO2 and CH4 concentration changes in the lowest atmospheric layers where the variability due to sources and sinks is largest.
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Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Russo M.R.; Marécal V.; Hoyle C.R.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal c ...
Joint WMO/ IOC for Oceanographic and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting
The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of an increasing number of maritime countries are actively engaged in the provision of storm surge forecast services for a wide range of maritime and coastal activities, in particular for coastal defense, shipping, fisheries, offshore mining, commerce, coastal engineering, construction and recreation. This guide draws attention to vulnerabilities in coastal areas exposed to storm surges by focusing on risk forecasting, in addition to hazard forecasting.
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WWRP, 2011-3. WWRP/ETRP Workshop on Operational Monsoon Research and Forecast Issues : lecture notes
CAWCR technical report, 46. Abstracts of the Fifth International Verification Methods Workshop, 1 - 7 December 2011, Melbourne, Australia
This year's scientific workshop offers a stimulating and informative array of presentations on forecast verification relevant to a variety of topics including ensemble and probability forecasts, seasonal forecast and climate projections, aviation forecasts, user-focused verification, tropical cyclones and high impact weather forecasts and warnings, as well as methodologies and issues that apply to many areas. The workshop features five keynote talks by international experts, as well as a public lecture by renowned climate researcher, Professor Neville Nicholls of Monash University on, "Can wea ...
CAWCR technical report, 40. Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Charles Andrew; Hendon Harry H.; Wang Q.J.; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information ab ...
Satellite Meteorology: GOES Channel Selection V2
This module is an update to the previous Satellite Meteorology: GOES Channel Selection module. It reviews the five GOES imager channels and their use, incorporating conceptual visualizations and numerous imagery examples. The module also includes updated information on improvements for the GOES-13, -14 and -15 satellites. Highlights include a higher resolution 13.3 micrometer CO2 channel (GOES-14 & -15), modified spectral response of the visible channel, improved radiometric performance and pixel geolocation, and shortened data outages during the fall and spring satellite eclipse periods.
ASMET: Satellite Precipitation Products for Hydrological Management in Southern Africa
This module introduces a variety of meteorological and hydrological products that can improve the quality of heavy rainfall forecasts and assist with hydrological management during extensive precipitation events in Southern Africa. Among the products are the satellite-based ASCAT, SMOS, and ASAR GM soil moisture products and the hydro-estimator. The products are presented within the context of a case, the flooding of South Africa's Vaal Dam region in 2009/2010.
Optimizing the Use of Model Data Products
Each model forecast tells a story about the weather events to unfold. As a forecaster, you employ diagnostics to understand and interpret that story, in order to modify it, blend it with other stories, and generate your own forecast. This lesson will help you sift through the abundance of model data so you can understand and interpret the model’s story. Other lessons cover evaluating the model’s story against observations and against your conceptual models of the evolving situation, blending the stories, and adjusting the forecast to add value over an objective forecast. The diagnostic approac ...
Volcanic Ash: Observation Tools and Dispersion Models
This module is the fourth and final entry in the Volcanic Ash series. It covers the tools and techniques used for identifying and forecasting the transport of volcanic ash. Satellite and radar imagery are combined with observations and numerical model output to first identify the presence of volcanic ash and then to help forecast the transport of ash at various levels of the atmosphere.
Preparing to Evaluate NWP Models
This lesson prepares the forecaster to evaluate NWP analyses and forecasts using physically based conceptual models of the atmosphere, and the "Vertical Phenomenon Analysis Funnel". This funnel divides the atmosphere into three sections: lower stratosphere and tropopause, mid-to-upper troposphere, and lower troposphere. We discuss tools to use and atmospheric features to assess for each section of the atmosphere, using interactive case examples, and summarize the methodology with a comprehensive example. Finally, we compare model capabilities and the time and space scales of assessment tools u ...
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CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 27. 27th session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE-27)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) ; et al. - WMO, 2011
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CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 26. 26th session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE-26)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Jakob Christian; Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC); et al. - WMO, 2011
Assessement of selected global models in short range forecasting over West Africa: case study of Senegal
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; ANAMS ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - WMO, 2011Severe weather events in West Africa are associated mainly with meso-scale thunderstorms and squall lines. Forecasting such severe weather to reduce the risk of hazards is one of the challenges faced by many met services. However, the recent progress in the area of numerical weather prediction has enabled some countries to forecast these events in a better way.
Due to lack of capacity, many of the West African countries were not able to use numerical weather prediction systems effectively in their day to day forecasting activities. The CPC/African Desk has been playing big role in buil ...
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Prediction from Weeks to Decades
This white paper is a synthesis of several recent workshops, reports and published literature: (Smith et al., 2011; Anderson et al. 2011; Weller et al. 2010; Meehl et al. 2009; Hurrell et al. 2009; Shukla et al. 2010 and Brunet et al. 2010). The intent is to document: (i) the scientific basis for prediction from weeks to decades; (ii) current capabilities; and (iii) outstanding challenges. We focus on time--‐scales from beyond the time scale of deterministic weather (i.e., sub--‐seasonal) to decadal.
Forecast Study of the Cold December of 2005 in Japan: Role of Rossby Waves and Tropical Convection
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 88. No 4. Inaba Morio; Kodera Kunihiko - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010Japan experienced unusually heavy snowfall and low temperatures in December 2005 owing to the cold air advected from Siberia. As a result of this strong and sustained cold surge, record-breaking snowfalls occurred repeatedly along the coast of the Sea of Japan. To determine the cause and to examine the accuracy of numerical forecasts of such unusual weather as well as to investigate the impact of initial and boundary conditions on the forecasts, we conducted one-month ensemble forecasts for December 2005 by changing lower boundary conditions, such as sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice c ...
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62 - April 2010 - WWRP 北京オリンピック2008 予報実証/研究開発プロジェクト = WWRP BeijingOlympics 2008 Forecast Demonstration/Research and Development Project (B08FDP/RDP)
is an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Saito Kazuo; Kunii Masaru; Hara Masahiro - Meteorological Research Institute, 2010This technical report describes modeling activities by the Meteorological Research Institute
(MRI) for the WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project/Research and
Development Project (B08FDP/RDP). MRI participated in B08RDP in collaboration with the
Numerical Prediction Division (NPD) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (NPD/JMA).
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61 - March 2010 - 強雨をもたらす線状降水帯の形成機構等の解明及び降水強度・移動速度の予測に関する研究 = Studies on formation process of line-shaped rainfall systems and predictability of rainfall intensity and moving speed
Autoclaved natural seawater collected in the North Pacific Ocean was used as a reference material for nutrients in seawater (RMNS) during an inter-laboratory comparison (I/C) study conducted in 2008. This study was a follow-up to previous studies conducted in 2003 and 2006. A set of six samples was distributed to each of 58 laboratories in 15 countries around the globe, and results were returned by 54 of those laboratories (15 countries). The homogeneities of samples used in the 2008 I/C study, based on analyses for three determinants, were improved compared to those of samples used in the 200 ...
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Vol. 88. No 3 - June 2010
is an issue of Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010Contains:
- Mechanisms of Temporary Improvement and Rapid Changes in Visibility in Fogs
- Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Approaching Japan due to Anthropogenic Warming in Sea Surface and Upper-Air Temperatures
- Convective Boundary Layer above a Subtropical Island Observed by C-band Radar and Interpretation using a Cloud Resolving Model
- Role of Large-Scale Circulation in Triggering Foehns in the Hokuriku District of Japan during Midsummer
- Diurnal Variations in Lower-Tropospheric Wind over Japan ...
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A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot
The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. Thi ...
Adding Value to NWP Guidance
The purpose of this module is to train operational meteorologists at NWS WFOs and elsewhere how to maximize opportunities to add value to NWP forecasts. The training includes use of the methods and tools from earlier modules in Course 2 of Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process. Included in the module are two case examples for the short- and medium-range. Additionally, a WES "caselet" is available from the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch that further illustrates how to add value to NWP guidance.
Radar Signatures for Severe Convective Weather
This resource is intended for use as a job aid by operational weather forecasters in live warning situations and as a reference tool to better understand some aspects of severe thunderstorm warning events. Thumbnail images show typical representatives for sixteen radar reflectivity and velocity signatures as well as three primary severe storm types. Each signature links to content describing detection techniques and conceptual and diagnostic information to help determine storm severity. The majority of the examples shown are southern hemisphere storms in Australia; examples from the northern h ...
Determining Plausible Forecast Outcomes
The content of this lesson will assist the forecaster with the third step of the forecast process, namely, determining plausible forecast outcomes forward in time. The lesson will highlight the role of probabilistic forecast tools to assess the degree of uncertainty in a forecast, as well as suggest an approach for evaluating past and present model performance.
How NWP Fits into the Forecast Process
This introductory module presents the basis for the other modules in the new NWP Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process. We present the four steps in the forecast process, as determined by best practices in U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). Then we show the module topics and summarize how to navigate through the course.
Analysis, Diagnosis, and Short-Range Forecast Tools
This lesson is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the importance of analysis and diagnosis in evaluating NWP in the forecast process. In section two, we discuss a methodology for dealing with discrepancies between both the official forecast and NWP compared to analysis and diagnosis. The third section shows a representative example of the methodology.
Bias Correction of NWP Model Data
The lesson "Bias Correction of NWP Model Data" first describes what affects bias in NWP models: regime continuity, timing of features that affect sensible weather, and existence (or not) of those features in the models. After discussing examples of each of these, three bias correction methods are presented: Model Output Statistics (MOS), decaying average, and a SmartInit tool developed at the Boise ID WFO called BOIVerify. Situations where each perform well and each perform poorly are discussed. Finally, after a comprehensive review question and feedback, a summary and series of points to reme ...
QPF Verification: Challenges and Tools
This module looks at the common challenges and tools with respect to verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). Through the use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module provides an introduction to a variety of methods and approaches for assessing the quality of QPFs. The module examines the need for, and the challenges of verifying precipitation forecasts. An overview is then presented of three verification programs available to most NWS forecast offices: the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) verification, the National Precipitation Verificati ...
Downscaling of NWP Data
Forecasters utilize downscaled NWP products when producing forecasts of predictable features, such as terrain-related and coastal features, at finer resolution than provided by most NWP models directly. This lesson is designed to help the forecaster determine which downscaled products are most appropriate for a given forecast situation and the types of further corrections the forecaster will have to create. This module engages the learner through interactive case examples illustrating and comparing the major capabilities and limitations of some commonly-used downscaled products for 2-m tempera ...
Forecasting Dust Storms - Version 2
Forecasting Dust Storms Version 2 provides background and operational information about dust storms. The first part of the module describes dust source regions, the life cycle of a dust storm, and the major types of dust storms, particularly those found in the Middle East. The second part presents a process for forecasting dust storms and applies it to a case in the Middle East. Although the process refers to U.S. Department of Defense models and tools, it can easily be adapted to other forecast requirements and data sources. Note that this module is an updated version of the original one publ ...
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 2: Tropical Remote Sensing Applications
This chapter covers remote sensing, the primary method of observing weather and climate across the global tropics. Learners will become familiar with the scientific basis and applications of radar and satellite remote sensing from examples in which clouds and precipitation are observed by measuring microwave signals using ground-based radar, spaceborne radar, and satellite radiometers. Wind estimation, dust and volcanic ash tracking, vertical sounding techniques, and remote measurement of sea-surface, soil and land surface properties are also covered.
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 9: Observations, Analysis, and Prediction
The chapter describes the challenges of tropical weather forecasting. We examine types of observations and weather analysis techniques used by tropical forecasters. Those analysis tools are applied to examples of tropical synoptic weather systems as well as mesoscale analysis and nowcasting. The last three sections focus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) including: the fundamentals, data assimilation, comparisons of statistical and dynamical models, ensemble techniques, cumulus convection in NWP, tropical cyclone prediction, and methods of forecast verification and validation. We have spec ...
Precipitation Estimates, Part 2: Analysis
This is part two of a two-module series on estimation of observed precipitation. Through the use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module provides an introduction to the science behind successful application of the products and tools available through the NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software and related products. An overview is presented of the key fields available in MPE along with illustrations of their use. These include radar, gauge, satellite, bias-adjusted radar, and multisensor fields of precipitation accumulation along with data displays and ta ...
Understanding the Role of Deterministic versus Probabilistic NWP Information
Understanding the Role of Deterministic versus Probabilistic NWP Information is part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process." This lesson first covers deterministic (single) NWP model forecasts and explains advantages and limitations through a case example. Then it discusses overcoming the limitations in deterministic forecasts through the use of ensemble forecast systems, and the use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts together, through case examples.
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 5: The Distribution of Moisture and Precipitation
Moisture and precipitation distribution governs life in the tropics. Surplus heating and rising motion in the tropics ignites the global water and energy cycles and influences weather in the midlatitudes. This chapter presents the horizontal and vertical distribution of water vapor, tropical cloud formation and distribution, the lifecycle and precipitation characteristics of tropical mesoscale convective systems, and the variability of tropical precipitation on yearly, seasonal, and hourly time-scales.
Effective Use of High-Resolution Models
High-resolution models have transitioned from research into forecast operations, helping forecasters utilize additional mesoscale information after accounting for the inherent unpredictability of many small-scale phenomena. This module covers the major capabilities and limitations of models run without a convective parameterization using grid spacings of around 4 km or less. Model forecast interpretation issues are discussed, including introducing convective mode diagnostics such as updraft helicity and interpreting the forecast as an event prediction rather than as a precise point forecast. M ...
Toward an Advanced Sounder on GOES?
This module uses recorded interviews from several satellite meteorologists and respected satellite experts to describe how a high spectral resolution infrared sounder in geostationary orbit would lead to significant improvements in mesoscale and severe weather forecasting and numerical weather prediction. Discussions focus on the currently unsatisfied need for an advanced sounder in geostationary orbit and the potential contributions this capability could provide.
PWS-SG, 01. Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
This summary guide is for forecasters who are required to include uncertainty information in weather and climate forecasts and want to know the best way to present it. It provides advice on communicating probability forecasts, or other kinds of uncertainty information.
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CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 25. Report of the twenty-fifth session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council for Science (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2010 (WMO/TD-No. 1524)
WWRP, 05. WWRP 2010-5 - 5th WMO Symposium on data assimilation
Improving the combination of observations and dynamical models by data assimilation systems has underpinned many advances in our understanding of the natural environment, and forecasting ability. These improvements, coupled with the development of ever more powerful computers and more sophisticated communication systems such as the internet and the World Wide Web have also heightened expectations. As a result, society is looking for further significant benefits from applications of meteorology, oceanography and hydrology.
Наставление по Глобальной системе обработкиданных и прогнозирования: Том I — Глобальные аспекты, Том II — Региональные аспект
BMO, 2010
Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight (WMO-No. 1038), TN 203
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Organisation Scientifique et Technique Internationale du Vol à Voile (OSTIV) - WMO, 2009 (WMO-No. 1038)The aim of this handbook - prepared by Organisation Scientifique et Technique Internationale du Vol à Voile (OSTIV) - is to provide the reader an internationally agreed set of guidelines for meteorological forecasting in soaring flight and related activities.
GCOS, 127. Conseil Pratique pour l'Établissement des Messages CLIMAT
Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM); Programme des Nations Unies pour l'environnement (PNUE); Conseil International pour la Science (ICSU); et al. - OMM, 2009
Introduction to the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
This webcast introduces the forecaster to the new multiple-forecast-center North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). Beginning with a brief review of the theory behind ensemble prediction, this presentation then introduces the elements of the NAEFS. These include the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Canadian Meteorological Center’s Ensemble Forecast System (CEFS). A description of each separate ensemble system is followed by a discussion of how the NAEFS improves the ensemble forecast over either the GEFS or CEFS alone. ...
How Models Produce Precipitation and Clouds - version 2
This module, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", explores how NWP models handle both grid-scale microphysical (precipitation) and convective processes through parameterizations and/or explicit methods, with an emphasis on how model treatment (and errors in the triggering) of these processes affects forecast depiction of precipitation and related forecast variables. Back in 2000, the subject matter expert for this module was Dr. Ralph Petersen of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC). Revisions to ...
Recognition and Impact of Vorticity Maxima and Minima in Satellite Imagery
Vorticity maxima and minima signatures are common features of the atmosphere. They indicate areas of ascending and descending circulation and atmospheric forcing and can be used to diagnose dynamic features such as the axis of maximum winds and deformation zones. This module provides insight on the analysis of these dynamic atmospheric features using Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite imagery. The module is an adaptation of Phil Chadwick's work from the series of modules in "Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette".
Model Fundamentals - version 2
Model Fundamentals, part of the Numerical Weather Prediction Professional Development Series and the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", describes the components of an NWP model and how they fit into the forecast development process. It also explores why parameterization of many physical processes is necessary in NWP models. The module covers background concepts and terminology necessary for learning from the other modules in this series on NWP. Back in 2000, the subject matter expert for this module was Dr. Ralph Petersen of the National Centers for Environmen ...
Precipitation Estimates, Part 1: Measurement
This is part one of a two-module series on estimation of observed precipitation. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module provides an overview of the science of precipitation estimation using various measuring platforms. First, we define quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and examine technologies for remote sensing of QPE, including radar and satellite and the strengths and limitations of each. That is followed by an examination of the use of rain gauges for precipitation estimation and important issues to consider with rain gauge measurement. Final ...
Satellite Feature Identification: Blocking Patterns
Satellite Feature Identification: Blocking Patterns examines how water vapor imagery can be used to help diagnose blocking patterns and their dissipation. Four major blocking patterns are covered in this module: Blocking highs, Cut-off lows, Rex blocks and Omega blocks. This module is part of the series: "Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette".
Satellite Feature Identification: Ring of Fire
Satellite Feature Identification: Ring of Fire introduces forecasters to the potentially damaging convection that can develop in conjunction with blocking high pressure centers and examines how to identify it from a water vapor imagery perspective. This module is part of the series "Dynamic Feature Identification: The Satellite Palette".
Intelligent Use of Model-Derived Products - version 2
This module, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", discusses three aspects of forecast guidance developed from raw NWP model data: Post-processing Statistical guidance Model assessment tools Post-processing methods, including a new section of downscaling of coarser resolution data, bias correction, and post-processing of ensemble forecast system data, are introduced. Interpolation of raw model data to produce the data seen by operational meteorologists is also described. Next, we present information on statistical guidance methods and techniques, incl ...
Influence of Model Physics on NWP Forecasts - version 2
This module, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", describes model parameterizations of surface, PBL, and free atmospheric processes, such as surface snow processes, soil thermal and moisture processes, surface vegetation effects such as evapotranspiration, radiative processes involving clouds and trace gases, and turbulent processes in the PBL and free atmosphere. It specifically addresses how models treat these processes, how such processes can potentially interact with each other, and how they can influence forecasts of sensible weather elements. B ...
Jason-2: Using Satellite Altimetry to Monitor the Ocean
Altimeters onboard satellites such as Jason-2 measure sea surface height and other characteristics of the ocean surface. These characteristics are linked to underlying processes and structures, making altimetry data useful for understanding the full depth of the global ocean. This 75-minute module explores major discoveries made possible by altimetry data in oceanography, marine meteorology, the marine geosciences, climate studies, the cryosphere, and hydrology. For example, altimeters have played a vital role in detecting and monitoring sea level rise and its relation to climate change. The m ...
Impact of Model Structure and Dynamics - version 2
Impact of Model Structure & Dynamics, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", explains how a model forecast, and thus interpretation of that forecast, is affected by the basic design of the model. Topics include how meteorological variables are represented in grid point and spectral models, fundamental differences between hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic models, horizontal resolution of orographic and free-atmosphere features, vertical coordinate systems and how they affect the vertical resolution of features in the model forecast, and the forecast impact ...
WMO Regional Satellite Workshop
The "Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RAIII and IV," which took place in Córdoba, Argentina between September 22 and October 3, 2008, was sponsored by WMO and NOAA NWS, and organized with the assistance of CONAE, CIRA, UBA, INPE, Eumetsat and The COMET Program. The goal of the training course was to increase the skills of Latin American meteorologists for providing better services through the use of environmental satellites. This Webcast collection offers the following seven lectures presented at the workshop, five in Spanis ...
Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process: Introduction
This lesson, part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process", introduces the student to the full series. Motivation for the series is presented by Mr. LeRoy Spayd, Chief of the National Weather Service Training Division; this includes a demonstration of the value added by human forecasters to NWP forecasts through recent precipitation verification. Contributors to the series are acknowledged as well. Then Dr. Bill Bua, a member of the NWP Training Team, expands on points raised by Mr. Spayd by posing and answering a question on the role of NWP in the forecast pr ...
Understanding Assimilation Systems: How Models Create Their Initial Conditions - version 2
Understanding Assimilation Systems: How Models Create Their Initial Conditions, is part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process." This module explains the data assimilation process, including the role of the model itself as well as the observations. It provides learners an appreciation for how models use data as a function of model resolution and data type, how data influence the analysis, the limitations of data assimilation systems, the importance of initial conditions on the quality of NWP guidance, as well as the challenges of assessing the quality of NWP ...
GCOS, 127. Practical Help for Compiling CLIMAT Reports
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); International Council for Science (ICSU); et al. - WMO, 2009 (WMO/TD-No. 1477)
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CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 24. Report of the twenty fourth session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council for Science (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2009 (WMO/TD-No. 1486)
Verification of NCEP-GFS model forecast versus NCEP/CPC RFE over DRCONGO from October to December 2008 : NOAA Project Report
Kalaki Kasongo Ado - NOAA, 2009Introduction: Model verification is an essential part of a Weather Prediction system. It is a helpful knowledge to enhance the forecaster’s assessment in Weather bulletin production. The aim of this study is to compare the global Forecast system (GFS) model rainfall prediction accumulated for 24 hours and averaged over October, November and December 2008 with the African Rain Fall Estimate (RFE 2.0) (Love et al.,2002) over DRCongo and the neighboring areas (from 15S to 6N latitudes and from 10E to 32E longitudes) fig.0.
GAW Report, 187. Joint report of COST Action 728 and GURME - Review of the capabilities of meteorological and chemistry-transport Models for describing and predicting air pollution episodes
This report forms the first deliverable of Working Group 3 of the COST Action 728 on “Enhancing Mesoscale Meteorological Modelling Capabilities for Air Pollution and Dispersion
Applications”. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the current capabilities and applications of mesoscale modelling systems for describing and predicting air quality and related meteorological conditions. The applications are discussed from the perspective of meteorology, which is in line with the main aim of the COST 728 Action.
WCDMP, 72. Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Zwiers Francis W.; Zhang Xuebin - WMO, 2009 (WMO/TD-No. 1500)
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Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), 1496. Challenges and opportunities in research on climate, weather, water and environment : research aspects of an Enhanced Climate; Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework
Advances in the geophysical sciences and computing have led to a number of opportunities for WMO. First, the distinction across timescales from weather to climate prediction is becoming more blurred; second the incorporation of chemical, hydrological and biological processes into weather and climate models will allow a much broader range of environmental parameters to be forecast, including air quality, flooding, sand and dust storms, changes in vegetation etc. Third, many of the applications and impacts of weather and climate share a common underlying scientific basis.
ГСНК, 127. Практическая помощь в составлении сводок CLIMAT
Всемирная Метеорологическая Организация (BMO); Программа ООН по окружающей среде (ЮНЕП); Международного совета по науке (ICSU); et al. - BMO, 2009 (ВMO/TД-No. 1477)
SMOC, 127. Ayuda práctica para la compilación de informes CLIMAT
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM); Programa de Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA); Consejo Internacional para la Ciencia (ICSU); et al. - OMM, 2009 (OMM/DT (ES)-No. 1477)
Introduction to Verification of Hydrologic Forecasts
This module offers a comprehensive description of a set of common verification measures for hydrologic forecasts, both deterministic and probabilistic. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains how these verification measures can provide valuable information to users with varying needs. In addition to providing a measure of how well a forecast matches observations, verification measures can be used to help forecasters and users learn about the strengths and weaknesses of a forecast.
Creating Meteorological Products from Satellite Data
This module presents an overview of how satellite data are turned into the satellite products used by operational forecasters and the research and educational communities, etc. The module begins by describing the process of creating simple image products that use relatively simple image manipulation techniques to highlight properties such as wind-blown dust, vegetation, and cloud phase. The module then describes some of the more complex processes involved in generating quantitative products, such as cloud identification, atmospheric instability, wildfire characterization, and sea surface tempe ...
Deformation Zone Distribution
The distribution of vorticity centres along an axis of maximum winds follows a fairly predictable pattern based on the characteristics of the flow. By diagnosing these characteristics, the meteorologist is able to quickly deduce the location and relative intensities of the associated vorticity centres as well as the relative sizes of the associated circulations. This information is summarized within the shape and orientation of the associated deformation zones. The deformation zones in turn reveal important details regarding feature motion and thermal advection and thus their diagnosis should ...
GOES-R: Benefits of Next-Generation Environmental Monitoring
This module is an introduction to NOAA's next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series, focusing on the value and anticipated benefits derived from an enhanced suite of instruments for improved monitoring of meteorological, environmental, climate, and space weather phenomena and related hazards. An extensive set of visualizations highlight GOES-R and its advanced observing capabilities for providing support in thirteen key environmental application areas including air quality and visibility, climate, cloud icing, fires, hurricanes, land cover, lightning, l ...
Operational Use of Wave Watch III
In this webcast, Dr. Hendrik Tolman (NOAA Marine Analysis Branch) discusses the operational use of NOAA WAVEWATCH III. The NOAA WAVEWATCH III is a forecast system that predicts wind-generated ocean waves. Dr. Tolman discusses what WAVEWATCH III can and cannot predict along with the model physics, numerics, and forecast products. Numerous examples illustrate the practical effects of several recent model improvements including high-resolution hurricane winds, surf zone physics, wave partitioning, and use of a multi-grid mosaic. The webcast concludes with a discussion of future improvements plann ...
World Weather Watch - Proceedings of the Fourth WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Andersson Erik; Ondráš Miroslav - WMO, 2008 (WMO/TD-No. 1450)The fourth session of the WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction, organized under the auspices of the CBS OPAG-IOS Expert Team on the Evolution of the GOS (ET-EGOS) by the Organizing Committee headed by Drs John Eyre, Ko Koizumi and Jean Pailleux, is considered as another important step forward in the process of a design of the future GOS.
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CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 23. Report of the twenty third session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council for Science (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2008 (WMO/TD-No. 1429)
PWS, 18. Guidelines on Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Martin Claire; Cacic Ivan; et al. - WMO, 2008 (WMO/TD-No. 1422)Communicating the uncertainty of the forecast is vital to users. It allows them to make better decisions that are attuned to the reliability of the forecast. It also helps to manage the expectations of users for accurate forecasts. These Guidelines address the issue of communicating forecast uncertainty. Although they include a discussion on the sources of uncertainty, and touch on the related science (e.g. probabilistic forecasting, the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) ensembles), this is not their focus. Rather, the emphasis is on how National Meteorological and Hydrological Servic ...
WWRP/THORPEX, 11. WWRP/THORPEX African Implementation Plan
THORPEX is a ten year international research and development programme under the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) to accelerate improvements in accuracy of 1 day to 2 weeks high-impact weather forecasts and realize related benefits for society, the economy and the environment.
This document is designed to capitalize and improve upon existing and planned research and development programmes that contribute to WWRP/THORPEX objectives for Africa.
PWS, 18. Directrices sobre la comunicación de la incertidumbre de las predicciones
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM); Martin Claire; Cacic Ivan; et al. - OMM, 2008 (OMM/DT (ES)-No. 1422)Comunicar la incertidumbre de las predicciones es de vital importancia para los usuarios. Les permite tomar mejores decisiones acordes con la fiabilidad de las predicciones. Asimismo, ayuda a controlar las expectativas de los usuarios en lo que se refiere a predicciones precisas. En esta publicación se trata el tema de la comunicación de la incertidumbre de las predicciones. Si bien se incluye una descripción de las fuentes de incertidumbre y se mencionan las ciencias relacionadas (por ejemplo, la predicción probabilística y el uso de la predicción numérica del tiempo (PNT) por conjuntos), no ...
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