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Downscaling of NWP Data
Forecasters utilize downscaled NWP products when producing forecasts of predictable features, such as terrain-related and coastal features, at finer resolution than provided by most NWP models directly. This lesson is designed to help the forecaster determine which downscaled products are most appropriate for a given forecast situation and the types of further corrections the forecaster will have to create. This module engages the learner through interactive case examples illustrating and comparing the major capabilities and limitations of some commonly-used downscaled products for 2-m tempera ...
Forecasting Dust Storms - Version 2
Forecasting Dust Storms Version 2 provides background and operational information about dust storms. The first part of the module describes dust source regions, the life cycle of a dust storm, and the major types of dust storms, particularly those found in the Middle East. The second part presents a process for forecasting dust storms and applies it to a case in the Middle East. Although the process refers to U.S. Department of Defense models and tools, it can easily be adapted to other forecast requirements and data sources. Note that this module is an updated version of the original one publ ...
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 2: Tropical Remote Sensing Applications
This chapter covers remote sensing, the primary method of observing weather and climate across the global tropics. Learners will become familiar with the scientific basis and applications of radar and satellite remote sensing from examples in which clouds and precipitation are observed by measuring microwave signals using ground-based radar, spaceborne radar, and satellite radiometers. Wind estimation, dust and volcanic ash tracking, vertical sounding techniques, and remote measurement of sea-surface, soil and land surface properties are also covered.
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 9: Observations, Analysis, and Prediction
The chapter describes the challenges of tropical weather forecasting. We examine types of observations and weather analysis techniques used by tropical forecasters. Those analysis tools are applied to examples of tropical synoptic weather systems as well as mesoscale analysis and nowcasting. The last three sections focus on numerical weather prediction (NWP) including: the fundamentals, data assimilation, comparisons of statistical and dynamical models, ensemble techniques, cumulus convection in NWP, tropical cyclone prediction, and methods of forecast verification and validation. We have spec ...
Precipitation Estimates, Part 2: Analysis
This is part two of a two-module series on estimation of observed precipitation. Through the use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module provides an introduction to the science behind successful application of the products and tools available through the NWS Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) software and related products. An overview is presented of the key fields available in MPE along with illustrations of their use. These include radar, gauge, satellite, bias-adjusted radar, and multisensor fields of precipitation accumulation along with data displays and ta ...
Understanding the Role of Deterministic versus Probabilistic NWP Information
Understanding the Role of Deterministic versus Probabilistic NWP Information is part of the "NWP Training Series: Effective Use of NWP in the Forecast Process." This lesson first covers deterministic (single) NWP model forecasts and explains advantages and limitations through a case example. Then it discusses overcoming the limitations in deterministic forecasts through the use of ensemble forecast systems, and the use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts together, through case examples.
Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 5: The Distribution of Moisture and Precipitation
Moisture and precipitation distribution governs life in the tropics. Surplus heating and rising motion in the tropics ignites the global water and energy cycles and influences weather in the midlatitudes. This chapter presents the horizontal and vertical distribution of water vapor, tropical cloud formation and distribution, the lifecycle and precipitation characteristics of tropical mesoscale convective systems, and the variability of tropical precipitation on yearly, seasonal, and hourly time-scales.
Effective Use of High-Resolution Models
High-resolution models have transitioned from research into forecast operations, helping forecasters utilize additional mesoscale information after accounting for the inherent unpredictability of many small-scale phenomena. This module covers the major capabilities and limitations of models run without a convective parameterization using grid spacings of around 4 km or less. Model forecast interpretation issues are discussed, including introducing convective mode diagnostics such as updraft helicity and interpreting the forecast as an event prediction rather than as a precise point forecast. M ...
Toward an Advanced Sounder on GOES?
This module uses recorded interviews from several satellite meteorologists and respected satellite experts to describe how a high spectral resolution infrared sounder in geostationary orbit would lead to significant improvements in mesoscale and severe weather forecasting and numerical weather prediction. Discussions focus on the currently unsatisfied need for an advanced sounder in geostationary orbit and the potential contributions this capability could provide.
PWS-SG, 01. Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
This summary guide is for forecasters who are required to include uncertainty information in weather and climate forecasts and want to know the best way to present it. It provides advice on communicating probability forecasts, or other kinds of uncertainty information.
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CAS/JSC WGNE Report, 25. Report of the twenty-fifth session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; International Council for Science (ICSU); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - WMO, 2010 (WMO/TD-No. 1524)
WWRP, 05. WWRP 2010-5 - 5th WMO Symposium on data assimilation
Improving the combination of observations and dynamical models by data assimilation systems has underpinned many advances in our understanding of the natural environment, and forecasting ability. These improvements, coupled with the development of ever more powerful computers and more sophisticated communication systems such as the internet and the World Wide Web have also heightened expectations. As a result, society is looking for further significant benefits from applications of meteorology, oceanography and hydrology.
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