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Mejora en la alerta de ciclones. Caso práctico: Filipinas
Mejorar la predicción de los ciclones es uno de los objetivos de la investigación meteorológica internacional. Este caso práctico de un tifón de 2009 que estuvo a punto de impactar sobre Filipinas ofrece una perspectiva del alcance de la predicción por conjuntos.
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Las predicciones se volverán más sutiles: Entrevista con Eugenia Kalnay
Boletín, Vol. 59(2). OMM, 2011El hecho de contar con mejores predicciones representa un importantísimo logro científico, y estas predicciones se tornarán más sutiles, tal y como defiende Eugenia Kalnay, ganadora del Premio de la Organización Meteorológica Internacional de 2009. La OMM ha estado en primera línea de la colaboración para hacer que esto sea posible. La obtención de noticias acerca de predicciones para la audiencia adecuada constituye el siguiente desafío.
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US Weather Satellites saw tornado swarm coming 5 days out
SAN FRANCISCO — Five days before approximately 200 tornadoes swept through six states in the Southeastern United States between April 25 and April 28, local meteorologists were alerted to the possibility of unusually severe weather by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite data.
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The effect of meteorological and chemical factors on the agreement between observations and predictions of fine aerosol composition in southwestern Ontario during BAQS-Met
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Markovic M.Z.; Hayden K.L.; Murphy J.G.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) was an intensive, collaborative field campaign during the summer of 2007 that investigated the effects of transboundary pollution, local pollution, and local meteorology on air quality in southwestern Ontario. This analysis focuses on the measurements of the inorganic constituents of particulate matter with diameter of less than 1 μm (PM1), with a specific emphasis on nitrate. We evaluate the ability of AURAMS, Environment Canada's chemical transport model, to represent regional air pollution in SW Ontario by comparing modelled aerosol in ...
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Impact of model grid spacing on regional- and urban- scale air quality predictions of organic aerosol
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Stroud C.A.; Makar P.A.; Moran M.D.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Regional-scale chemical transport model predictions of urban organic aerosol to date tend to be biased low relative to observations, a limitation with important implications for applying such models to human exposure health studies. We used a nested version of Environment Canada's AURAMS model (42- to- 15- to- 2.5-km nested grid spacing) to predict organic aerosol concentrations for a temporal and spatial domain corresponding to the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met), an air-quality field study that took place in the southern Great Lakes region in the summer of 2007. The use o ...
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Sensitivity of mesoscale model urban boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban representation
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Flagg D.D.; Taylor P.A. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada)) during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forec ...
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Long-term analysis of carbon dioxide and methane column-averaged mole fractions retrieved from SCIAMACHY
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Schneising O.; Buchwitz M.; Reuter M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributing to global climate change. SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (launch 2002) was the first and is now with TANSO onboard GOSAT (launch 2009) one of only two satellite instruments currently in space whose measurements are sensitive to CO2 and CH4 concentration changes in the lowest atmospheric layers where the variability due to sources and sinks is largest.
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Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Russo M.R.; Marécal V.; Hoyle C.R.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal c ...
Joint WMO/ IOC for Oceanographic and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting
The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of an increasing number of maritime countries are actively engaged in the provision of storm surge forecast services for a wide range of maritime and coastal activities, in particular for coastal defense, shipping, fisheries, offshore mining, commerce, coastal engineering, construction and recreation. This guide draws attention to vulnerabilities in coastal areas exposed to storm surges by focusing on risk forecasting, in addition to hazard forecasting.
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WWRP, 2011-3. WWRP/ETRP Workshop on Operational Monsoon Research and Forecast Issues : lecture notes
CAWCR technical report, 46. Abstracts of the Fifth International Verification Methods Workshop, 1 - 7 December 2011, Melbourne, Australia
This year's scientific workshop offers a stimulating and informative array of presentations on forecast verification relevant to a variety of topics including ensemble and probability forecasts, seasonal forecast and climate projections, aviation forecasts, user-focused verification, tropical cyclones and high impact weather forecasts and warnings, as well as methodologies and issues that apply to many areas. The workshop features five keynote talks by international experts, as well as a public lecture by renowned climate researcher, Professor Neville Nicholls of Monash University on, "Can wea ...
CAWCR technical report, 40. Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall
Charles Andrew; Hendon Harry H.; Wang Q.J.; et al. - Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, 2011Ensemble forecasts of South Eastern Australian rainfall from POAMA 1.5, a coupled oceanatmosphere dynamical model based seasonal prediction system run experimentally at the Bureau of Meteorology, tend to be under dispersed leading to overconfident probability forecasts. The poor reliability of seasonal forecasts based on dynamical coupled models is a barrier to their adoption as official outlooks by the Bureau of Meteorology. One approach to correcting this problem is model calibration, in which the probability distribution produced by the model is adjusted in light of available information ab ...
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