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Atmospheric Dust
Atmospheric dust storms are common in many of the world's semi-arid and arid regions and can impact local, regional, and even global weather, agriculture, public health, transportation, industry, and ocean health. This module takes a multifaceted approach to studying atmospheric dust storms. The first chapter examines the impacts of dust storms, the physical processes involved in their life cycle, their source regions, and their climatology. The second chapter explores satellite products (notably dust RGBs) and dust models used for dust detection and monitoring, and presents a process for fore ...
Weather Radar Fundamentals
This 2-hour module presents the fundamental principles of Doppler weather radar operation and how to interpret common weather phenomena using radar imagery. This is accomplished via conceptual animations and many interactive radar examples in which the user can practice interpreting both radar reflectivity and radar velocity imagery. Although intended as an accelerated introduction to understanding and using basic Doppler weather radar products, the module can also serve as an excellent refresher for more experienced users.
Suomi NPP: A New Generation of Environmental Monitoring Satellites
The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership or Suomi NPP satellite, launched in 2011, is the first of a new series of missions under NOAA's JPSS program. Suomi NPP has two major goals: global observing of the Earth's atmosphere, land, and ocean surface; and climate monitoring. Suomi NPP observations are used to create operational forecast products and provide input to numerical weather prediction models. They also provide continuity to the satellite climate record and other environmental datasets. This module provides an overview of the Suomi NPP satellite. The first half describes its missi ...
ASMET: 2009 Drought in East Africa
The module examines the 2009 drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), focusing on conditions in Kenya. The module begins by reviewing drought conditions in the years leading up to 2009. From there, it examines the seasonal climate forecast for the beginning of 2009 and see what it portends. Satellite products are used to study rainfall performance throughout the year and its impact on the drought situation. Finally, the module describes the climate oscillations that can impact drought in the GHA and identifies patterns that were present in 2009 and contributed to its severity. By the end o ...
Principes directeurs relatifs aux systèmes de prévision d'ensemble et à la prévision d'ensemble
Les systèmes de prévision d’ensemble sont des systèmes de prévision numérique du temps qui nous permettent d’évaluer l’incertitude des prévisions météorologiques ainsi que leurs incidences les plus probables. Au lieu de faire tourner le modèle de prévision numérique une seule fois (prévision déterministe), on le fait tourner plusieurs fois avec des conditions initiales très légèrement différentes. Souvent, la physique du modèle est un peu perturbée et, dans certains ensembles, on fait appel à plusieurs modèles (systèmes de prévision d’ensemble multimodèle) ou à un seul modèle mais avec d ...
WWRP/THORPEX, 18. International Core Steering Committee for THORPEX : final report
The TIGGE-LAM panel was set up by the GIFS-TIGGE working group to coordinate the contribution from Limited Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, Bougeault et al. 2010) and to the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System). After a couple of years of activity, the Panel was requested by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. Furth ...
Verification of mobile weather alert forecasts over Lake Victoria in Uganda
Several studies suggest that weather patterns over Lake Victoria are highly variable, with wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms suddenly thrashing up high waves capable of capsizing small fishing boats. In order to improve safety on the lake, the Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) service is implemented by utilising mobile phone technology to provide daily weather forecasts that reduces vulnerability of fishermen to weather hazards. This service was developed as a pilot scheme under the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP). An evaluation of MWA forecasts over Lake Victoria ...
Guidelines on Ensemble Prediction Systems and Forecasting
Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that allow us to estimate the uncertainty in a weather forecast as well as the most likely outcome. Instead of running the NWP model once (a deterministic forecast), the model is run many times from very slightly different initial conditions. Often the model physics is also slightly perturbed, and some ensembles use more than one model within the ensemble (multi-model EPS) or the same model but with different combinations of physical parameterization schemes (multi-physics EPS). Owing to the cost of running ...
WWRP, 2012-1. Recommended Methods for Evaluating Cloud and Related Parameters
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) - WMO, 2012Cloud errors can have wide-reaching impacts on the accuracy and quality of outcomes, most notably, but not exclusively, on temperature. This is especially true for weather forecasting, where cloud cover has a significant impact on human comfort and wellbeing. Whilst public perception may not be interested in absolute precision, i.e. whether there were 3 or 5 okta of cloud, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest strong links between the perceptions of overall forecast accuracy and whether the cloud was forecast correctly, mostly because temperature errors often go hand-in-hand. It is therefore ...
WWRP/THORPEX, 16. International core steering committee for THORPEX - Ninth session : final report
The ninth session of the CAS International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) for THORPEX was held at the World Meteorological Organization Geneva from the 21-22 September 2011. The ICSC proceeded with the work assigned by the CAS, the WMO Executive Council and the World Meteorological Congress. This included reviews of the progress in planning and further development of THORPEX on the global and regional level, financial and administrative matters related to THORPEX management, the International Programme Office (IPO) and the Trust Fund. All documents and presentations considered and discussed at ...
WWRP/THORPEX, 17. THORPEX Interactive Research Grand Global Ensemble - Limited Area Model Plan (TIGGE LAM)
The TIGGE-LAM panel was set up by the GIFS-TIGGE working group to coordinate the contribution from Limited Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) to TIGGE (the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, Bougeault et al. 2010) and to the proposed GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System). After a couple of years of activity, the Panel was requested by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee to develop a Strategic Plan outlining the main scientific and development issues on which TIGGE LAM must concentrate to advance LAM EPS and defining specific activities related to these issues. Furth ...
Руководящие указания по системам ансамблевого прогнозирования и прогнозированию
Системы ансамблевого прогнозирования (САП) представляют собой системы численного прогнозирования погоды (ЧПП), которые позволяют нам оценивать неопределенность в прогнозе погоды, а также наиболее вероятный исход. Вместо прогона модели ЧПП один раз (детерминированный прогноз) модель прогоняется много раз с несколько разными исходными условиями. Во многих случаях физика модели бывает также несколько возмущенной, а некоторые ансамбли используют более одной модели внутри ансамбля (мультимодельная САП) или одну и ту же модель, но с различными комбинациями схем физической параметризации (мул ...
Directrices sobre los sistemas de predicción por conjuntos y la predicción
Los sistemas de predicción por conjuntos son sistemas de predicción numérica del tiempo (PNT) que permiten estimar la incertidumbre de una predicción meteorológica, así como el desenlace más probable del proceso predicho. En lugar de ejecutar el modelo de PNT una sola vez (predicción determinística), se ejecuta numerosas veces partiendo de condiciones iniciales ligeramente diferentes. Con frecuencia se introduce también una ligera perturbación en los parámetros físicos del modelo, y algunos conjuntos hacen uso de más de un modelo (sistema de predicción por conjuntos multimodelo), o bien ...
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