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Предсказуемость за пределами детерминистических ограничений
Традиционная концепция детерминистических ограничений подвергается сомнению путем рассмотрения возможности определенной успешности прогнозирования во всех временных масштабах от часов до
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CAWCR technical report, 61. Improvements in atmospheric physical parameterizations for the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS)
The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) is a new coupled ocean and atmosphere climate modelling system being developed at the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR). ACCESS uses the UK Met Office Unified Model (Met UM, Davies et al. 2005) as its atmospheric component, which is coupled with the GFDL Ocean Model version 4.1 (MOM4p1, Griffies et al. 2009) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory Sea Ice Model version 4.1 (CICE4, Hunke and Lipscomb 2010), using the numerical coupler OASIS3.25 (Valcke 2006). The development of ACCESS has followed ...
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Workshop proceedings - Parametrization of Clouds and Precipitation across Model Resolutions
ECMWF, 2013
ASMET 7: Convective Weather and Aviation in West and Central Africa
The hazards associated with convective systems present some of the most dangerous conditions encountered by aircraft and pose many challenges to aviation operations. When convection is forecast to develop, aviation forecasters are required to issue a series of warning messages and other meteorological aeronautical products to various members of the aviation community. This lesson teaches these forecasters how to produce the products, doing so in the context of a case study in which learners assume the role of aeronautical forecaster on duty at the airport in Niamey, Niger on a night when conve ...
Multispectral Satellite Applications: Monitoring the Wildland Fire Cycle, 2nd Edition
This lesson describes current and future satellites sensors and products used for monitoring the fire cycle, with an emphasis on polar-orbiting satellites. Product information is presented in the context of the fire lifecycle: from assessing the pre- and post-fire environment to detecting and monitoring active fires, smoke, and aerosols. Product information is also consolidated in the Fire Product Suite. The lesson concludes with an interactive fire case study, supplemented with observations from a National Weather Service trainer/forecaster who experienced the fire. The lesson is intended for ...
ASMET 7: Detecting Clear Air Turbulence Over Southern Africa
Turbulence is a major concern for the aviation industry. It often goes undetected in cloud-free areas, catching pilots off guard when they fly into it. Turbulence can injure passengers and crew, and cause structural damage to aircraft. This makes it critical for aviation weather forecasters to closely monitor the atmosphere for signs of turbulence and issue special warnings when it is likely to be present. This lesson helps prepare forecasters for these tasks by providing general information about turbulence and showing them how to detect it using satellite imagery, tephigrams, and NWP product ...
Multispectral Satellite Applications: RGB Products Explained
This lesson provides an overview of meteorological and environmental RGB products, namely, how they are constructed and how to use them. The first half provides background information on the RGB development process and the rapid evolution of RGB products as newer geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imagers incorporate additional spectral channels. The second half of the lesson, the Applications section, focuses on the formulation and uses of RGB products; providing examples, interpretation exercises, satellite specific information, and other background information for many of the common ...
Caribbean Radar Products
This module provides examples of radar imagery from various locations in the Caribbean to demonstrate the different types of images available. Also, examples of different meteorological and non meteorological features are presented to show features seen in island locations.
Tropical Fog: A Look at Fog That Impacts Aviation in Guyana
This module applies concepts covered in the module, Fog: Its Processes and Impacts to Aviation. It examines the fog processes at a tropical location: Guyana. A basic overview of the main fog types is provided, and then a detailed analysis is done for a representative fog event at the Cheddi Jagan International Airport in Guyana. Conclusions are made about fog processes in Guyana which can then be applied to forecasting for aviation impacts.
ASMET 7: Forecasting Fog for Aviation: Kenya Case Study
This lesson aims to improve aviation forecasts of fog in the African airspace by teaching forecasters to make more accurate forecasts using satellite imagery, numerical weather prediction, and other available data. A process for diagnosing and forecasting fog is presented and applied to a case over the Nairobi, Kenya region. Learners assume the role of aviation forecaster, analysing various products to determine whether the current Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) is valid or needs to be amended. The lesson is intended for aviation forecasters, general weather forecasters interested in aviati ...
Introduction to VIIRS Imaging and Applications
This lesson introduces the VIIRS imager that operates on the current U.S. Suomi NPP satellite and is planned for future JPSS environmental satellites. VIIRS has many advanced features that improve both spectral and spatial resolution and enable the delivery of consistent, high quality, and high resolution data to users worldwide. The lesson covers the enhanced capabilities of VIIRS and highlights some of its applications. These include single channel and multispectral products used to monitor dust, volcanic ash, convection, fog and low clouds, sea surface temperature, tropical cyclones, contra ...
Introduction to Ensembles: Forecasting Hurricane Sandy
This module provides an introduction to ensemble forecast systems with an operational case study of Hurricane Sandy. The module concentrates on models from NCEP and FNMOC available to forecasters in the U.S. Navy, including NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), and NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability). Probabilistic forecasts of winds and waves developed from these ensemble forecast systems are applied to a ship transit and coastal resource protection. Lessons integrated in the case study provide information on ensemble statistics, products, bias correction and ...
Caribbean Radar Cases
This module presents radar case studies taken from events in the Caribbean that highlight radar signatures of severe weather. These cases include examples of deep convection, squall lines, bow echoes, tornadoes, and heavy rain resulting in flooding. Each case study includes a discussion of the conceptual models of each type of event as a review before showing the radar signatures and allowing the learner to analyze each one.
Satellite Feature Identification: Inferring Three Dimensions from Water Vapour Imagery
We think in three-dimensional space and a fourth dimension, time. Therefore, we should think about the atmosphere in similar terms. However, we are often stuck with two-dimensional maps. Water vapor imagery can help us break out of that flatland and move to more dimensions. This imagery holds so much under-utilized potential. We can actually see three-dimensional structures evolving in near-real-time. And if we have a good handle on the current three-dimensional structure, we can then use NWP to its fullest as a verification/interrogation instrument for our 3D mental model. Come see the atmosp ...
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