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L’avenir de l’entreprise météorologique
Alors que les incidences du temps et du climat ne cessent de s’aggraver, il importe de chercher des stratégies qui permettront de renforcer les outils scientifi ques et technologiques qui nous ont permis, au cours des quatre dernières décennies, d’améliorer sensiblement nos aptitudes en matière de prévisions et de services météorologiques. Il n’y a pas si longtemps – à l’époque où la génération du baby-boom faisait son entrée sur le marché du travail – l’échéance des prévisions exactes et fi ables du temps ne dépassait pas 24 heures. Aujourd’hui, il est normal de pouvoir compter sur la diff us ...
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La météo: quel avenir?
Les nouvelles sources d’observations de l’atmosphère, les supercalculateurs plus puissants et les progrès de la science ont contribué ensemble à révolutionner la prévision du temps au cours de la dernière partie du XXe siècle. À l’échelle mondiale, nous sommes désormais capables de faire cinq jours à l’avance des prévisions aussi précises que celles qui étaient produites trois jours à l’avance il y a 20 ans. Les sociétés peuvent donc aujourd’hui recevoir bien plus tôt qu’avant des alertes aux aléas météorologiques qui leurs permettent de se préparer et de limiter ainsi les pertes humaines et m ...
WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (GHG Bulletin) - No.12: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2015
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions(3) calculated from this in situ network for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2015, with CO2 at 400.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1845±2 ppb(4) and N2O at 328.0±0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 144%, 256% and 121% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. It is predicted that 2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory remains above 400 ppm all year, and hence for many generations [ ...
GAW Report, 227. WMO/GAW Aerosol Measurement Procedures, Guidelines and Recommendations
It is the goal of the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme to ensure long - term measurements in order to detect trends in global distributions of chemical constituents in air and the reasons for them (WMO, 2001a). With respect to aerosols, the objective of GAW is to determine the spatio - temporal distribution of aerosol properties related to climate forcing and air quality on multi - decadal time scales and on regional, hemispheric and global spatial scales. The objective of GAW Report No. 153, published in 2003, was to provide a synthesis of methodologies and procedures for measuring the ...
WIGOS Technical Report, 2016-01. AMDAR Benefits to the Air Transport Industry
This report describes and documents the benefits that the Air Transport Industry (ATI) gains from increased forecast accuracy achieved through the daily collection of atmospheric data gathered by approximately 4,000 inflight commercial aircraft. The report also outlines the Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay (AMDAR) observing system, the forecast process and describes the importance that AMDAR data plays in numerical weather prediction (NWP).
Measuring the benefits to the ATI requires first to describe and to quantify the improved weather forecast accuracies due solely to the assimilat ...
IOM Report, 123. Currently Developing and Future Communications and Technology Impact on AMDAR
This document has been prepared in the frame of WMO study SSA-2604-14/REM/PEX, for which the objective is to assess currently developing and future communications and technology impacts on AMDAR.
Using NWP Lightning Products in Forecasting
This lesson introduces two numerical weather prediction (NWP) lightning hazard products that forecasters can use during a convective meteorological watch and to assess lightning risk at Day 2 and beyond. The first product is the Flash Rate Density, a derived, deterministic lightning product implemented in some NCEP high-resolution NWP models. The second product, the SPC Calibrated Thunderstorm Probability, combines forecasts of measurable precipitation and favorable lightning environments determined from the Cloud Physics Thunder Parameter. Information about these products is presented in the ...
SatFC-G: Basic Principles of Radiation
This lesson is an abbreviated review of the scientific basis for using visible and infrared satellite imagery. The concepts and capabilities presented are common to most geostationary (GEO) and low-Earth orbiting (LEO) meteorological satellites. Basic remote sensing and radiative theory are reviewed using conceptual models to help organize scientific concepts. Some imagery is also included to illustrate concepts and relate them to sensor observations. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course. More in-depth information on radiation and radiative transfer can be found ...
SatFC-G: Near-IR Bands
This lesson introduces you to three of the four near-infrared imager bands (at 1.37, 1.6, and 2.2 micrometers) on the GOES R-U ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager), focusing on their spectral characteristics and how they affect what each band observes. For information on the 0.86 micrometer near-IR "veggie" band which is not included here, refer to the Visible and Near-IR Bands lesson. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information for Everyday Users - Presentation at 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts
Although previous research suggests that we are not very good at reasoning with uncertainty, the research described in this talk is far more encouraging. Unlike earlier work that compares peoples' decisions to a rational standard, these experiments compared decisions made by people with uncertainty information to decisions made by people without uncertainty information. The results suggest that including specific numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts leads to better decisions. This talk was part of Meteorological Service of Canada's 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Us ...
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Upgrade
The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system underwent a major upgrade in Fall 2015. The intended result of the upgrade was to improve the SREF ensemble spread and probabilistic skill, and to reduce a cool, wet bias in surface and near-surface temperatures and moisture. This 20-minute lesson addresses the changes to improve the SREF, including the increase in ensemble size, the increase in initial condition and model physics diversity, and drier land surface parameters to lessen the cool, wet bias. Each is introduced by comparing the old and new SREF forecasts for a potential winter storm f ...
SatFC-G: GOES-R Impacts on Satellite Data Assimilation
This five minute lesson presents a brief overview of how GOES-R observations are expected to support and potentially enhance NWP for various analysis and forecast applications. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
JPSS River Ice and Flood Products
This lesson introduces hydrologists, meteorologists, and the education community to two new JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) satellite capabilities for monitoring river ice and flooding. It begins by describing the need for information on river ice and flooding, the capabilities of the Suomi NPP and future JPSS VIIRS imagers to provide products for monitoring river conditions, and the new river ice and flood products. This is followed by several cases, notably the May 2013 Galena, AK flood event, that demonstrate the use and value of the products in monitoring river ice and related flooding ...
Forecasting Sensible Weather from Water Vapour Imagery
Forecaster nowcasting at the synoptic scale is rapidly being replaced by the numerical weather prediction models. However, there are plenty of opportunities for you as a forecaster to improve on those forecasts with simple comparisons of water vapour hand analyses and surface hand analyses. The goal of this lesson is to improve your skills in water vapour and surface analyses to evaluate the three-dimensionality of the atmosphere and thus forecast the sensible weather better. This is the capstone for the entire Satellite Interpretation distance learning course.
Satellite Foundational Course for GOES-R: SatFC-G (SHyMet Full Course Access)
The Satellite Foundational Course for GOES-R (SatFC-G) is a series of nearly 40 lessons designed specifically for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and decision makers to prepare for the U.S.’ next-generation geostationary environmental satellites. The course is intended to help learners develop or improve their understanding of the capabilities, value, and anticipated benefits from the GOES-R suite of instruments. These instruments and imagery offer improved monitoring of meteorological, environmental, climatological, and space weather phenomena and related hazards. The course will a ...
SatFC-G: Tropical to Extratropical Transition
This lesson uses water vapor satellite imagery from Himawari-8 to describe the typical extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone. The Himawari-8 imager previews comparable capabilities coming online with the GOES-R ABI imager. The lesson also provides a brief overview of subtropical cyclones and their transition to tropical cyclones. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
SatFC-G: Impact of Satellite Observations on NWP
This lesson covers how satellite data inform numerical weather prediction models. From a basic overview of how satellite data is assimilated to how a new instrument's data might get into a model. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course. More in-depth discussions and a quiz on the impacts of satellite observations on NWP can be found in the COMET lesson, How Satellite Observations Impact NWP.
HiresW HREF Upgrade
This 20-minute lesson presents upgraded versions of the two NWP models used as High Resolution Window (HiresW), the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) and the Non-Hydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B-grid (NMMB). Domains include the CONtinental US (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and Puerto Rico. The CONUS runs of the NMMB and WRF-ARW became part of a new High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system in 2015, the first of its kind produced at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. To familiarize the operational forecaster with the HREF, products from ...
SatFC-G: Introduction to the GLM
This lesson describes the need for real-time lightning information and the capabilities of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), which will fly on the next-generation GOES-R satellites as the first operational lightning detector in geostationary orbit. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course. More in-depth discussions and a quiz on the lightning flash cycle and lightning applications can be found in the COMET lesson, GOES-R GLM: Introduction to the Geostationary Lightning Mapper.
Verification Methods in the NWS National Blend of Global Models
This lesson introduces learners to the methods used in verifying the various weather element forecasts included in Version 1.0 of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of global Models (NBM). This Level 2 lesson is intended for forecasters and users of NWS forecast products; some prior knowledge of numerical weather prediction and statistics is useful. Learners will be introduced to the analysis of record used to verify the NBM. Learners will also explore single event, grid-to-observation, and grid-to-grid verification methods, as well as how to interpret the results using the ...
Statistical Methods in the NWS National Blend of Global Models
This lesson introduces users to the statistics used in generating the various weather element forecasts included in Version 1.0 of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) National Blend of global Models (NBM). This Level 3 lesson is intended for forecasters and users of NWS forecast products; some prior knowledge of numerical weather prediction and statistics is useful. Learners will be introduced to the analysis of record used to calibrate the NBM’s bias and error estimates. Learners will also explore the downscaling, bias correction, and weighting procedures applied to the model products, an ...
Predicting Convective Cessation for Aviation Forecasters
This module introduces aviation forecasters to a conceptual framework for analyzing, diagnosing and predicting convective cessation and resulting conditions near airports. Users will first learn about five main environments with respect to convection, and three patterns in which these environments are commonly arranged. Next, users are immersed into an adjustable-time case simulator to practice applying the convective environment frameworks to their forecast process, while periodically amending TAFs and responding to warning, storm report and caller interruptions. Finally, a case summary ties ...
SatFC-G: IR Bands, Excluding Water Vapor
This lesson introduces seven of the ten infrared imager bands on the GOES R-U ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager). It examines the spectral characteristics of each band to facilitate a better understanding of band selection and what each band observes, and to shed light on some of the many potential applications. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
The Science of Radio Occultation and the COSMIC Mission
The lesson provides an overview of radio occultation and its contributions to our understanding of Earth's atmosphere as demonstrated by the COSMIC mission launched in 2006. The lesson is divided into three chapters: Chapter 1 describes the science of radio occultation and how atmospheric profiles are obtained. Chapter 2 focuses on the benefits of radio occultation and COSMIC observations for numerous applications related to meteorology, climate, and space weather. Chapter 3 describes the COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7 mission and its expected improvements to further inform meteorology, climate, and iono ...
Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
This scenario-based lesson introduces the topic of communicating forecast uncertainty to decision-makers, such as emergency managers, related industry professionals, the public, and other end-users. In a case that spans the lesson, learners begin by developing a forecast discussion using deterministic data, refine it with probabilistic ensemble data, and evaluate how well it conveys uncertainty information. Then they assume several end-user roles, assessing how well the forecast discussion addresses their needs. From there, important research findings on communicating uncertainty are discussed ...
SatFC-G: Visible and Near-IR Bands
This lesson introduces you to the two visible and one of the near-infrared imager bands on the GOES R-U ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager), focusing on their spectral characteristics and how they affect what each band observes. Also included is a brief discussion of the customization of visible enhancements as an important consideration for improving the depiction of various features of interest. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
The Importance of Accurate Coastal Elevation and Shoreline Data
Produced in collaboration between NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey (NGS) and The COMET Program, this video explains the role of topo-bathy lidar products in NOAA’s mapping and charting program, and how these products provide a critical dataset for coastal resilience, coastal intelligence, and place-based conservation. Federal, state and local decision-makers, coastal zone managers, community planners as well as general and scientific users of mapping products will find this 4-minute video helpful for understanding the benefits of coastal elevation data produced by NGS. This resource is hosted o ...
Бюллетень ВМО по Парниковым Газам - № 12: Содержание парниковых газов в атмосфере по данным глобальных наблюдений в 2015 г.
Последний анализ данных наблюдений, полученных в рамках Программы Глобальной службы атмосферы (ГСА) ВМО, показывает, что глобально усредненные приповерхностные молярные доли(3), рассчитанные на основании этой сети наблюдений двуокиси углерода (СO2), метана (СН4) и закиси азота (N2O) in situ достигли в 2015 г. новых максимумов, причем для CO2 новый максимум составил 400,0}0,1 млн–1, для CH4 — 1845}2 млрд–1(4), а для N2O — 328,0}0,1 млрд–1. Эти значения составляют соответственно 144 %, 256 % и 121 % по отношению к доиндустриальным (1750 г.) уровням. Ожидается, что 2016 год станет первым годом ...
Boletín sobre los gases de efecto invernadero - N°12: Estado de los gases de efecto invernadero en la atmósfera según las observaciones mundiales realizadas en 2015
El último análisis de las observaciones de la VAG de la OMM muestra que los promedios mundiales de las fracciones molares en superficie3), calculados a partir de esta red in situ para el dióxido de carbono (CO2), el metano (CH4) y el óxido nitroso (N2O), alcanzaron nuevos máximos en 2015 al registrar, respectivamente, 400,0±0,1 ppm, 1 845±2 ppb4) y 328,0±0,1 ppb, lo que representa respectivamente el 144%, 256% y 121% de los niveles preindustriales (antes de 1750). Se prevé que 2016 será el primer año en que en el Observatorio Mauna Loa se registre un nivel de CO2 superior a 400 ppm durante tod ...
Bulletin sur les gaz à effet de serre - N°12: Bilan des gaz à effet de serre présents dans l'atmosphère, d'après les observations effectuées à l'échelle du globe en 2015
La toute dernière analyse des données d'observation recueillies par le réseau in situ du Programme de la Veille de l'atmosphère globale (VAG) de l'OMM révèle qu'à l'échelle du globe, les fractions molaires en surface3) du dioxyde de carbone (CO2), du méthane (CH4) et du protoxyde d'azote (N2O) ont atteint de nouveaux pics en 2015, s'établissant respectivement à 400,0±0,1 ppm, 1 845±2 ppb4) et 328,0± 0,1 ppb. Ces valeurs représentent respectivement 144 %, 256 % et 121 % des niveaux préindustriels (avant 1750). On prévoit que 2016 sera la première année où la teneur de l'atmosphère en CO2 mesuré ...
Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...
GAW Report, 229. 18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases and Related Tracers Measurement Techniques (GGMT-2015)
The 18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques (GGMT - 2015) took place from 13 to 17 September 2015 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla (CA), USA. It was the 40 th anniversary of the first GGMT meeting (then called "CO 2 Experts Meeting") which was also held at Scripps in 1974. WMO has provided the framework for all carbon dioxide experts meetings since 1975. IAEA in Vienna joined WMO as a co - organizer in 1997 due to the increased use of carbon isotopes in studying the carbon cycle. The meeting reviewed current WMO ...
Commission for Basic Systems OPAG on Integrated Observing Systems - Implementation/coordination Team on Integrated Observing Systems (ICT-IOS), Ninth session : final report
The Ninth Session of the CBS, Open Programme Area Group on Integrated Observing Systems (OPAG-IOS), Implementation-Coordination Team on Integrated Observing System (ICT-IOS) was held in Geneva, Switzerland at the headquarters of WMO over 18-21 April 2016. The primary focus of this team meeting was for the various expert teams and rapporteurs to provide their reports of progress on their work plans and activities over the inter-sessional period to the session and for the ICT-IOS to formulate its reporting to CBS at its 16th Session (November 2016), including its proposed working structure and E ...
International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones II (IWSATC-II), Report and Recommendations : final report
In this report, we summarize the reported changes in TC satellite analysis techniques since IWSATC-I (2011) and highlight the continued development of existing objective analysis methods as well as the emergence of new algorithms.
Data Compendium - Summary Documentation of SAR Satellite Data Collections, Plans and Activities
During the past two decades, the collection and utilization of large amounts of satellite radar imagery over vast polar regions has become an outstanding example of international cooperation among space agencies and the polar science community. Building on the successful cooperation and coordination during the International Polar Year (2007/08), the Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) has recently re-enacted the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Coordination Working Group (CWG). The Group provides coordination among space agencies operating SAR satellites to facilitate collection of fundamental SAR dat ...
Study on the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Process Intensifying the Squall Lines over Guinea
This research investigates the dynamical and thermodynamical process of mesoscale convective system that intensifies squall lines wind speed propagation. The generation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and its lifecycle. The characteristics of squall lines (SLs) over West Africa (WA) which occurred In Guinea for two cases periods June 01-02 and June 13-14, 2015. In all six (6) AEWs have been tracked using reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). European Meteorological Satellite images (EUMETSAT) and Earth Networks WeatherBug StreamerRT were also used to ...
Analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and sunphotometer measurements
Aerosols are small, micrometer-sized particles, whose optical effects coupled with their impact on cloud properties is a source of large uncertainty in climate models. Aerosols when inhaled are believed to have significant and detrimental effects on human health. Their presence also affects photosynthesis and agricultural production. Aerosol measurements are urgently required for the complete understanding and modeling their role in the climate system. This study builds on the analysis of Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) using Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and sun photometer measurements then ...
Aerosol Measurement by Raman Lidar
This paper examines the aerosol extinction coefficient profiles measured by Rayleigh-Raman-Mie-Lidar (RRML) system in Nanjing, China. I introduced two lidars methods (Raman and Fernald) and detection principle, and two lidars data Using Raman analysis method and Fernald analysis method to obtained aerosol extinction coefficient. Aerosol profiles at 607 nm and 532 nm over ranges from 6 km to 10 km were obtained using respectively Raman lidar and Rayleigh lidar in Nanjing.
GAW Report, 226. Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/ Climate Modelling (CCMM): status and relevance for numerical weather prediction, atmospheric pollution and climate research
Online coupled meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. This report provides the main conclusions from the Symposium on “Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/Climate Modelling: Status and Relevance for Numerical Weather Prediction, Air Quality and ...
المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد الجوية النشرة الخاصة غازات الاحتباس الحراري: حالة غازات الاحتباس الحراري في الغلاف الجوي استناداً إلى الرصدات العالمیة المنفذة خلال عام 2015
توضح التحلیلات الأخیرة للرصدات التي أجراھا برنامج المراقبة العالمیة للغلاف الجوي ( GAW ) أن المتوسط العالمي الذي حسبتھ ھذه الشبكة الموقعیة للكسور الجزیئیة( 3) السطحیة لثاني أكسید الكربون والمیثان وأكسید النیتروز قد بلغت أرقاماً عالیة جدیدة في 2015 ، إذ بلغ ثاني أكسید الكربون 400.0±0.1 جزء في الملیون، والمیثان 2± 1845 جزءاً في البلیون( 4)، وأكسید النیتروز 0.1 ± 328.0 جزءاً في البلیون. وتشكل ھذه القیم على التوالي 144 في المائة و 256 في المائة و 121 في المائة من مستویات ما قبل العصر الصناعي (قبل عام 1750 ). ویتوقع أن یكون 2016 ھو أول عام یظل فیھ مستوى تركیز ثاني أكسید الكربون في مرصد مونا لوا فوق ...
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WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (GHG Bulletin)
