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Fog Forecasting for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley Aerodromes Using Model Output Statistics
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The ...
Published by: University of Reading - Department of meteorology ; 2016
Fog though a rare event has adverse economic implications to both the airline and aviation service providers if it’s occurrence, duration and dissipation periods are not properly predicted. This work assesses the accuracy and skill in forecasting fog events and suggesting possible adjustments to improve forecast accuracy and skill. The forecast used in this study are produced by MeteoGroup using Model Output Statistics (MOS). Forecasts for Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley are considered for analysis. These forecasts are used by British Airports Authority (BAA) in planning airport operations. The forecasts are produced daily at 08:00 UTC with a validity of 24 hours. Hourly Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) are used to verify the forecast. The forecast accuracy and skill is determined using Hit Rate (HR), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Frequency Bias (FBI), and Critical Success Index (CSI) evaluated from a 2-category contingency table. Significance of the forecast error is evaluated using a student’s t-test for difference in means at 0.05 significance level. The HR and CSI for the original forecast for all the three stations, Heathrow, Northolt and Kenley was below 20%. Upon adjusting the forecast using regression analysis, the HR and CSI for Heathrow improved to 53.7% and 40.8% respectively. The HR and CSI for Northolt improved to 27.4% and 24.2% respectively. The improvement for Kenley was insignificant since the HR and CSI slightly improved to values below 10%. Although this method is purely statistical hence do not involve physical dynamics that dictate fog formation, maintenance and dissipation, in absence of a dynamical methods that can be applied to improve the accuracy and skill of visibility forecast within fog range then regression methods used in this study is a better option especially for Heathrow airport.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (kizitoamua(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Fog ; Weather forecasting ; Research ; United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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GAW Report, 229. 18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases and Related Tracers Measurement Techniques (GGMT-2015)
The 18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques (GGMT - 2015) took place from 13 to 17 September 2015 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla (CA), USA. It was the 40 th anniversary of the first GGMT meeting (then called "CO 2 Experts Meeting") which was also held at Scripps in 1974. WMO has provided the framework for all carbon dioxide experts meetings since 1975. IAEA in Vienna joined WMO as a co - organizer in 1997 due to the increased use of carbon isotopes in studying the carbon cycle. The meeting reviewed current WMO ...
18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases and Related Tracers Measurement Techniques (GGMT-2015)
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Available online: Full text
Published by: WMO ; 2016
The 18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques (GGMT - 2015) took place from 13 to 17 September 2015 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla (CA), USA. It was the 40 th anniversary of the first GGMT meeting (then called "CO 2 Experts Meeting") which was also held at Scripps in 1974. WMO has provided the framework for all carbon dioxide experts meetings since 1975. IAEA in Vienna joined WMO as a co - organizer in 1997 due to the increased use of carbon isotopes in studying the carbon cycle. The meeting reviewed current WMO data quality objectives and observation scales, covering such topics as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, stable isotopes, radiocarbon in greenhouse gas measurements, calibration, quality control, data management and archiving. The workshop also discussed new and emerging technologies, including measurements of greenhouse gases with high - precision spectroscopic methods. Special goals for GGMT - 2015 were to have a larger emphasis on carbon monoxide measurements and to expand the scope to include measurements of dissolved greenhouse gases and related ocean tracers and to discuss GHG observations in the urban environment.
Collection(s) and Series: GAW Report- No. 229
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Greenhouse gas (GHG) ; Measure ; Global Atmosphere Watch Programme (GAW)
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Commission for Basic Systems OPAG on Integrated Observing Systems - Implementation/coordination Team on Integrated Observing Systems (ICT-IOS), Ninth session : final report
The Ninth Session of the CBS, Open Programme Area Group on Integrated Observing Systems (OPAG-IOS), Implementation-Coordination Team on Integrated Observing System (ICT-IOS) was held in Geneva, Switzerland at the headquarters of WMO over 18-21 April 2016. The primary focus of this team meeting was for the various expert teams and rapporteurs to provide their reports of progress on their work plans and activities over the inter-sessional period to the session and for the ICT-IOS to formulate its reporting to CBS at its 16th Session (November 2016), including its proposed working structure and E ...
Commission for Basic Systems OPAG on Integrated Observing Systems - Implementation/coordination Team on Integrated Observing Systems (ICT-IOS), Ninth session: final report
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Published by: WMO ; 2016 (Rev. 2)
The Ninth Session of the CBS, Open Programme Area Group on Integrated Observing Systems (OPAG-IOS), Implementation-Coordination Team on Integrated Observing System (ICT-IOS) was held in Geneva, Switzerland at the headquarters of WMO over 18-21 April 2016. The primary focus of this team meeting was for the various expert teams and rapporteurs to provide their reports of progress on their work plans and activities over the inter-sessional period to the session and for the ICT-IOS to formulate its reporting to CBS at its 16th Session (November 2016), including its proposed working structure and Expert Teams’ work plans for the coming CBS inter-sessional period 2017-2020. The session also received reports from experts, regional representatives and focal points on the status of the various observing system components of WIGOS and the GOS and the results of monitoring of these systems and networks. Overall, the team was pleased to be informed that the performance and status of the Regional Basic Synoptic and Regional Basic Climate Networks (RBSN and RBCN) had been relatively stable. The session also noted the remarkable and rapid development of Global Cryosphere Watch and the CryoNet over the last 4 years.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Observations ; Global Observing System (GOS) ; Commission for Basic Systems (CBS)
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International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones II (IWSATC-II), Report and Recommendations : final report
In this report, we summarize the reported changes in TC satellite analysis techniques since IWSATC-I (2011) and highlight the continued development of existing objective analysis methods as well as the emergence of new algorithms.
International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones II (IWSATC-II), Report and Recommendations: final report
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Published by: WMO ; 2016
In this report, we summarize the reported changes in TC satellite analysis techniques since IWSATC-I (2011) and highlight the continued development of existing objective analysis methods as well as the emergence of new algorithms.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) ; Tropical cyclone ; Satellite
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Commission for Basic Systems Open programme area group on integrated observing systems Inter-Programme Expert Team on satellite utilization and products, second session : meeting report
Commission for Basic Systems Open programme area group on integrated observing systems Inter-Programme Expert Team on satellite utilization and products, second session: meeting report
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Published by: WMO ; 2016
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Observations ; Satellite
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Data Compendium - Summary Documentation of SAR Satellite Data Collections, Plans and Activities
During the past two decades, the collection and utilization of large amounts of satellite radar imagery over vast polar regions has become an outstanding example of international cooperation among space agencies and the polar science community. Building on the successful cooperation and coordination during the International Polar Year (2007/08), the Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) has recently re-enacted the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Coordination Working Group (CWG). The Group provides coordination among space agencies operating SAR satellites to facilitate collection of fundamental SAR dat ...
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Study on the Dynamical and Thermodynamical Process Intensifying the Squall Lines over Guinea
This research investigates the dynamical and thermodynamical process of mesoscale convective system that intensifies squall lines wind speed propagation. The generation of African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and its lifecycle. The characteristics of squall lines (SLs) over West Africa (WA) which occurred In Guinea for two cases periods June 01-02 and June 13-14, 2015. In all six (6) AEWs have been tracked using reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). European Meteorological Satellite images (EUMETSAT) and Earth Networks WeatherBug StreamerRT were also used to ...
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Analysis of aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and sunphotometer measurements
Aerosols are small, micrometer-sized particles, whose optical effects coupled with their impact on cloud properties is a source of large uncertainty in climate models. Aerosols when inhaled are believed to have significant and detrimental effects on human health. Their presence also affects photosynthesis and agricultural production. Aerosol measurements are urgently required for the complete understanding and modeling their role in the climate system. This study builds on the analysis of Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) using Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) and sun photometer measurements then ...
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Aerosol Measurement by Raman Lidar
This paper examines the aerosol extinction coefficient profiles measured by Rayleigh-Raman-Mie-Lidar (RRML) system in Nanjing, China. I introduced two lidars methods (Raman and Fernald) and detection principle, and two lidars data Using Raman analysis method and Fernald analysis method to obtained aerosol extinction coefficient. Aerosol profiles at 607 nm and 532 nm over ranges from 6 km to 10 km were obtained using respectively Raman lidar and Rayleigh lidar in Nanjing.
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GAW Report, 226. Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/ Climate Modelling (CCMM): status and relevance for numerical weather prediction, atmospheric pollution and climate research
Online coupled meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. This report provides the main conclusions from the Symposium on “Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/Climate Modelling: Status and Relevance for Numerical Weather Prediction, Air Quality and ...
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المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد الجوية النشرة الخاصة غازات الاحتباس الحراري: حالة غازات الاحتباس الحراري في الغلاف الجوي استناداً إلى الرصدات العالمیة المنفذة خلال عام 2015
توضح التحلیلات الأخیرة للرصدات التي أجراھا برنامج المراقبة العالمیة للغلاف الجوي ( GAW ) أن المتوسط العالمي الذي حسبتھ ھذه الشبكة الموقعیة للكسور الجزیئیة( 3) السطحیة لثاني أكسید الكربون والمیثان وأكسید النیتروز قد بلغت أرقاماً عالیة جدیدة في 2015 ، إذ بلغ ثاني أكسید الكربون 400.0±0.1 جزء في الملیون، والمیثان 2± 1845 جزءاً في البلیون( 4)، وأكسید النیتروز 0.1 ± 328.0 جزءاً في البلیون. وتشكل ھذه القیم على التوالي 144 في المائة و 256 في المائة و 121 في المائة من مستویات ما قبل العصر الصناعي (قبل عام 1750 ). ویتوقع أن یكون 2016 ھو أول عام یظل فیھ مستوى تركیز ثاني أكسید الكربون في مرصد مونا لوا فوق ...
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