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Nowcasting for Central Europe
High-impact weather has always posed challenges for crisis management and risk prevention. Nowcasting provides very short range weather forecasts (0–6 hours) and warnings in a timely manner and in high spatial detail. It can help end users such as civil protection authorities, hydrologists and road safety services in their time-critical applications to respond, prepare and take actions for high-impact weather.1234
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L’avenir de l’entreprise météorologique
Alors que les incidences du temps et du climat ne cessent de s’aggraver, il importe de chercher des stratégies qui permettront de renforcer les outils scientifi ques et technologiques qui nous ont permis, au cours des quatre dernières décennies, d’améliorer sensiblement nos aptitudes en matière de prévisions et de services météorologiques. Il n’y a pas si longtemps – à l’époque où la génération du baby-boom faisait son entrée sur le marché du travail – l’échéance des prévisions exactes et fi ables du temps ne dépassait pas 24 heures. Aujourd’hui, il est normal de pouvoir compter sur la diff us ...
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La météo: quel avenir?
Les nouvelles sources d’observations de l’atmosphère, les supercalculateurs plus puissants et les progrès de la science ont contribué ensemble à révolutionner la prévision du temps au cours de la dernière partie du XXe siècle. À l’échelle mondiale, nous sommes désormais capables de faire cinq jours à l’avance des prévisions aussi précises que celles qui étaient produites trois jours à l’avance il y a 20 ans. Les sociétés peuvent donc aujourd’hui recevoir bien plus tôt qu’avant des alertes aux aléas météorologiques qui leurs permettent de se préparer et de limiter ainsi les pertes humaines et m ...
WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (GHG Bulletin) - No.12: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2015
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions(3) calculated from this in situ network for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2015, with CO2 at 400.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1845±2 ppb(4) and N2O at 328.0±0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 144%, 256% and 121% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. It is predicted that 2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory remains above 400 ppm all year, and hence for many generations [ ...
GAW Report, 227. WMO/GAW Aerosol Measurement Procedures, Guidelines and Recommendations
It is the goal of the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme to ensure long - term measurements in order to detect trends in global distributions of chemical constituents in air and the reasons for them (WMO, 2001a). With respect to aerosols, the objective of GAW is to determine the spatio - temporal distribution of aerosol properties related to climate forcing and air quality on multi - decadal time scales and on regional, hemispheric and global spatial scales. The objective of GAW Report No. 153, published in 2003, was to provide a synthesis of methodologies and procedures for measuring the ...
WIGOS Technical Report, 2016-01. AMDAR Benefits to the Air Transport Industry
This report describes and documents the benefits that the Air Transport Industry (ATI) gains from increased forecast accuracy achieved through the daily collection of atmospheric data gathered by approximately 4,000 inflight commercial aircraft. The report also outlines the Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay (AMDAR) observing system, the forecast process and describes the importance that AMDAR data plays in numerical weather prediction (NWP).
Measuring the benefits to the ATI requires first to describe and to quantify the improved weather forecast accuracies due solely to the assimilat ...
IOM Report, 123. Currently Developing and Future Communications and Technology Impact on AMDAR
This document has been prepared in the frame of WMO study SSA-2604-14/REM/PEX, for which the objective is to assess currently developing and future communications and technology impacts on AMDAR.
Using NWP Lightning Products in Forecasting
This lesson introduces two numerical weather prediction (NWP) lightning hazard products that forecasters can use during a convective meteorological watch and to assess lightning risk at Day 2 and beyond. The first product is the Flash Rate Density, a derived, deterministic lightning product implemented in some NCEP high-resolution NWP models. The second product, the SPC Calibrated Thunderstorm Probability, combines forecasts of measurable precipitation and favorable lightning environments determined from the Cloud Physics Thunder Parameter. Information about these products is presented in the ...
SatFC-G: Basic Principles of Radiation
This lesson is an abbreviated review of the scientific basis for using visible and infrared satellite imagery. The concepts and capabilities presented are common to most geostationary (GEO) and low-Earth orbiting (LEO) meteorological satellites. Basic remote sensing and radiative theory are reviewed using conceptual models to help organize scientific concepts. Some imagery is also included to illustrate concepts and relate them to sensor observations. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course. More in-depth information on radiation and radiative transfer can be found ...
SatFC-G: Near-IR Bands
This lesson introduces you to three of the four near-infrared imager bands (at 1.37, 1.6, and 2.2 micrometers) on the GOES R-U ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager), focusing on their spectral characteristics and how they affect what each band observes. For information on the 0.86 micrometer near-IR "veggie" band which is not included here, refer to the Visible and Near-IR Bands lesson. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information for Everyday Users - Presentation at 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Users of Weather Forecasts
Although previous research suggests that we are not very good at reasoning with uncertainty, the research described in this talk is far more encouraging. Unlike earlier work that compares peoples' decisions to a rational standard, these experiments compared decisions made by people with uncertainty information to decisions made by people without uncertainty information. The results suggest that including specific numeric uncertainty estimates in weather forecasts leads to better decisions. This talk was part of Meteorological Service of Canada's 2015 Workshop on Communicating Uncertainty to Us ...
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Upgrade
The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system underwent a major upgrade in Fall 2015. The intended result of the upgrade was to improve the SREF ensemble spread and probabilistic skill, and to reduce a cool, wet bias in surface and near-surface temperatures and moisture. This 20-minute lesson addresses the changes to improve the SREF, including the increase in ensemble size, the increase in initial condition and model physics diversity, and drier land surface parameters to lessen the cool, wet bias. Each is introduced by comparing the old and new SREF forecasts for a potential winter storm f ...
SatFC-G: GOES-R Impacts on Satellite Data Assimilation
This five minute lesson presents a brief overview of how GOES-R observations are expected to support and potentially enhance NWP for various analysis and forecast applications. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
JPSS River Ice and Flood Products
This lesson introduces hydrologists, meteorologists, and the education community to two new JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) satellite capabilities for monitoring river ice and flooding. It begins by describing the need for information on river ice and flooding, the capabilities of the Suomi NPP and future JPSS VIIRS imagers to provide products for monitoring river conditions, and the new river ice and flood products. This is followed by several cases, notably the May 2013 Galena, AK flood event, that demonstrate the use and value of the products in monitoring river ice and related flooding ...
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WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (GHG Bulletin)
