This white paper is a synthesis of several recent workshops, reports and published literature: (Smith et al., 2011; Anderson et al. 2011; Weller et al. 2010; Meehl et al. 2009; Hurrell et al. 2009; Shukla et al. 2010 and Brunet et al. 2010). The intent is to document: (i) the scientific basis for prediction from weeks to decades; (ii) current capabilities; and (iii) outstanding challenges. We focus on time--‐scales from beyond the time scale of deterministic weather (i.e., sub--‐seasonal) to decadal.Published by: WMO ; 2011
This white paper is a synthesis of several recent workshops, reports and published literature: (Smith et al., 2011; Anderson et al. 2011; Weller et al. 2010; Meehl et al. 2009; Hurrell et al. 2009; Shukla et al. 2010 and Brunet et al. 2010). The intent is to document: (i) the scientific basis for prediction from weeks to decades; (ii) current capabilities; and (iii) outstanding challenges. We focus on time--‐scales from beyond the time scale of deterministic weather (i.e., sub--‐seasonal) to decadal.
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we fin ...
Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.
Format: Digital (Free)Published by: 世界气象组织 (WMO) ; 2011
Language(s): Chinese; Other Languages: Arabic, English, French, Russian, Spanish
Format: Digital (Free)
ISBN (or other code): 978-92-63-51069-3Published by: المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد ; 2011
Language(s): Arabic; Other Languages: Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish
Format: Digital (Free)Published by: BMO ; 2011
Language(s): Russian; Other Languages: Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Spanish
Format: Digital (Free)
ISBN (or other code): 978-92-63-41069-6PermalinkPermalinkAntarctic Record, Vol. 54, No. 2. Ushio Shuki - Scholarly and Academic Information Navigator (CiNii), 2010The wintering party of the 49th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE-49), consisting of 29 members, was conducted as the second year of the 7th four-year plan of JARE and the second half of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY2007-2008) at Syowa Station and its surrounding areas. JARE-49 took over management of the station facilities and functions from JARE-48 on February 1, 2008, and performed scientific observations and logistic duties. Though it was a little smaller in terms of number of wintering personnel than previous teams, it was well prepared to perform station manageme ...PermalinkThe performance of a 1-D soil model in a semiarid area of North China was investigated using observational data from a cropland station at the Tongyu reference site of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) during the non-growing period, when the ground surface was covered with bare soil. Comparisons between simulated and observed soil surface energy balance components as well as soil temperatures and water contents were conducted to validate the soil model. Results show that the soil model could produce good simulations of soil surface temperature, net radiation flux and sensible he ...PermalinkOn the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model (Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model, hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM), the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated. The predictive skill of sea level pressures (SLP) and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model. Furthermore, the model ski ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 6. Liu Hui-Zhi; Sang Jian-Guo - Science Press, 2010The present study solves a two-layer atmospheric wave equation model with a lower atmosphere concave wind profile and cold-air outbreak over sea, while simultaneously proving that such a wind shear may cause neutral boundary layer roll vortices in the presence of disturbing sources upstream. Without thermal effects, the wind shear-induced waves have band structures at the top of the boundary layer that are similar to cloud street patterns observed over sea. This study proves that dynamic and thermal effects can act independently to initiate the roll vortices in the lower atmosphere. At the sam ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 6. Yu En-Tao; Wang Hui-Jun; Sun Jian-Qi - Science Press, 2010This paper describes a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model system, which consists of the modified Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) nested with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Results show that dynamical downscaling is of great value in improving the model simulation of regional climatic characteristics. WRF simulates regional detailed temperature features better than CAM. With the spatial correlation coefficient between the observation and the simulation increasing from 0.54 for CAM to 0.79 for WRF, the improvement in precipitation simulati ...Permalinkis an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Tsujino Hiroyuki; Motoi Tatsuo; Ishikawa Ichiro - Meteorological Research Institute, 2010This technical report is a manual of the Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM). MRI.COM is an ocean general circulation model developed and maintained at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). As the name suggests, it has been used for studying large scale oceanic phenomena and as the oceanic part of the coupled climate models developed at MRIPermalinkAutoclaved natural seawater collected in the North Pacific Ocean was used as a reference material for nutrients in seawater (RMNS) during an inter-laboratory comparison (I/C) study conducted in 2008. This study was a follow-up to previous studies conducted in 2003 and 2006. A set of six samples was distributed to each of 58 laboratories in 15 countries around the globe, and results were returned by 54 of those laboratories (15 countries). The homogeneities of samples used in the 2008 I/C study, based on analyses for three determinants, were improved compared to those of samples used in the 200 ...Permalinkis an issue of Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010Contains:
- Mechanisms of Temporary Improvement and Rapid Changes in Visibility in Fogs
- Changes in Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Approaching Japan due to Anthropogenic Warming in Sea Surface and Upper-Air Temperatures
- Convective Boundary Layer above a Subtropical Island Observed by C-band Radar and Interpretation using a Cloud Resolving Model
- Role of Large-Scale Circulation in Triggering Foehns in the Hokuriku District of Japan during Midsummer
- Diurnal Variations in Lower-Tropospheric Wind over Japan ...PermalinkJournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol.88 No.5. Ma Lei-Ming; Tan Zhe-Min - Meteorological Society of Japan, 2010A new scheme, termed Vortex Initialization with the Assimilation of Retrieved Variables (VIRV), is presented to improve the initialization of regional numerical model for Tropical Cyclone (TC) prediction. In this scheme, the horizontal winds in Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and the sea level pressure (SLP), retrieved from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data obtained using a modified University of Washington Planetary Boundary Layer (UWPBL) model, are assimilated with a cycled three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) technique to produce the initialized analysis. The procedures of retrieval are i ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Zhang Zi-Yin; Gong Zhong-Shi; Yan Qing; et al. - Science Press, 2010The Drake Passage is the seaway between South America and Antarctica. It is widely believed that the thermal isolation effects caused by the opening of the Drake Passage played an important role in the abrupt cooling that occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary in the Cenozoic. These effects are also thought to be independent of the geometry of the passage. Here, the authors demonstrate that the climate impacts of the Drake Passage depend on the passage geometry by comparing the climate’s sensitivity to the opening of the Drake Passage under the present and the Early Eocene land-sea configur ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Zhang Zi-Yin; Gong Dao-Yi; He Xue-Zhao; et al. - Science Press, 2010Based on multiple proxies from the Southern Hemisphere, an austral summer (December-January-February: DJF) Antarctic Oscillation Index (AAO) since 1500 A.D. was reconstructed with a focus on interannual to interdecadal variability (PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 5. Zhang Dong-Bin; Jin Fei-Fei; Li Jian-Ping; et al. - Science Press, 2010A numerical ensemble-mean approach was employed to solve a nonlinear barotropic model with stochastic basic flows to analyze the nonlinear effects in the formation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The nonlinear response to external forcing was more similar to the NAO mode than the linear response was, indicating the importance of nonlinearity. With increasing external forcing and enhanced low-frequency anomalies, the effect of nonlinearity increased. Therefore, for strong NAO events, nonlinearity should be considered.PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 4. Mahmood Rashed; Yao Jin-Feng - Science Press, 2010South Asian monsoons were analyzed within the context of increasing emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols using a global atmospheric general circulation model. The BC aerosols were allowed to increase only over the south Asian domain to analyze the impacts of regional black carbon over the climatological patterns of monsoons. The black carbon significantly absorbed the incoming short wave radiation in the atmosphere, a result that is consistent with previous studies. Pre-monsoon (March-April-May) rainfall showed positive anomalies, particularly for some coastal regions of India. The summer ( ...PermalinkUNDP, 2010This updated handbook provides hands-on guidance for identifying the most effective technology options for poverty reduction and climate change mitigation and adaptation. By drawing on decades of experience and inputs from leading experts and practitioners, it brings novel insights for carrying out needs assessments and creating actionable plans as part of national climate change strategies.PermalinkPermalinkCLICO, 2010In contrast with the ubiquitousness of the headlines, empirically‐based research on the relationship between climate change, resource scarcity and conflict is often absent. The new EU project “Climate Change, Hydro‐conflicts and Human Security” (CLICO) will address this research gap. This policy brief presents CLICO’s research agenda regarding policy responses to climate change‐induced hydro‐conflicts. This policy brief is the first in a series of briefs presenting results of the CLICO project, which is funded by the 7th EU Framework Programme.PermalinkSevere calamities and fatalities have arisen from landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) around the world in recent years, such as Morakot (August 2009) in western North Pacific, Nargis (May 2008) in Bay of Bengal, Gonu (June 2007) in North Arabian Sea, Bilis (July 2006) in western North Pacific, Katrina (August 2005) in Gulf of Mexico, and Catarina (March 2004) in South Atlantic etc. Transferring the advancements from the research community to operational forecast centers in NMHSs would be helpful for improving the landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) forecasts and for mitigation of high-impact tro ...PermalinkIn the context of the EU 2010 goal of halting biodiversity loss, researchers have been called upon to evaluate the role of economic instruments for cost-effective decision-making, as well as non-market methods to assess their benefits. This paper reviews a number of methodological challenges of evaluating and designing economic instruments aimed at biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services provision in an existing policy mix. The study draws on experiences from Brazil and Costa Rica.Permalink