While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties ...Published by: World Bank ; 2012
While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties cannot be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), it then summarizes existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis. It also provides examples of applications of these methodologies, highlighting their pros and cons and their domain of applicability. The paper concludes that it is impossible to define the "best" solution or to prescribe any particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu of methodologies is required, together with some indications on which strategies are most appropriate in which contexts. This analysis is based on a set of interviews with decision-makers, in particular World Bank project leaders, and on a literature review on decision-making under uncertainty. It aims at helping decision-makers identify which method is more appropriate in a given context, as a function of the project's lifetime, cost, and vulnerability.
Format: Digital (Free)Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from agriculture are substantial. This paper looks into how can agricultural greenhouse gas emissions be reduced or sequestration enhanced while maintaining and even increasing food supply. The paper relies on a research undertaken in nine chosen African countries.
The authors reveal that croplands and grazing lands cover more than half of the East African countries’ lands and about 40% of the West African countries’ lands. In the nine African countries, the largest amount of GHG emissions is from the livestock sector, followed by emissions f ...Published by: Climate Change Agriculture Food Security ; 2012
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from agriculture are substantial. This paper looks into how can agricultural greenhouse gas emissions be reduced or sequestration enhanced while maintaining and even increasing food supply. The paper relies on a research undertaken in nine chosen African countries.
The authors reveal that croplands and grazing lands cover more than half of the East African countries’ lands and about 40% of the West African countries’ lands. In the nine African countries, the largest amount of GHG emissions is from the livestock sector, followed by emissions from soil only from due to the conversion of native ecosystems to cropland.
Format: Digital (Free)Published by: UNFCCC ; 2012
Format: Digital (Free)Bulletin, Vol. 60 (1). WMO, 2011[article]
in Bulletin > Vol. 60 (1) (2011) . - p.38-40
Language(s): English; Other Languages: French, Russian, Spanish
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copy[article]Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Korhonen H.; Sihto S.-L.; Kerminen V.-M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Several mathematical tools have been developed in recent years to analyze new particle formation rates and to estimate nucleation rates and mechanisms at sub-3 nm sizes from atmospheric aerosol data. Here we evaluate these analysis tools using 1239 numerical nucleation events for which the nucleation mechanism and formation rates were known exactly. The accuracy of the estimates of particle formation rate at 3 nm (J3) showed significant sensitivity to the details of the analysis, i.e. form of equations used and assumptions made about the initial size of nucleating clusters, with the fraction o ...[article]
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) > Vol. 11. N° 7 [04/01/2011] . - p.3051-3066
Several mathematical tools have been developed in recent years to analyze new particle formation rates and to estimate nucleation rates and mechanisms at sub-3 nm sizes from atmospheric aerosol data. Here we evaluate these analysis tools using 1239 numerical nucleation events for which the nucleation mechanism and formation rates were known exactly. The accuracy of the estimates of particle formation rate at 3 nm (J3) showed significant sensitivity to the details of the analysis, i.e. form of equations used and assumptions made about the initial size of nucleating clusters, with the fraction of events within a factor-of-two accuracy ranging from 43–97%. In general, the estimates of the actual nucleation rate at 1.5 nm (J1.5) were less accurate, and even the most accurate analysis set-up estimated only 59% of the events within a factor of two of the simulated mean nucleation rate. The J1.5 estimates were deteriorated mainly by the size dependence of the cluster growth rate below 3 nm, which the analysis tools do not take into account, but also by possible erroneous assumptions about the initial cluster size. The poor estimates of J1.5 can lead to large uncertainties in the nucleation prefactors (i.e. constant P in nucleation equation J1.5 = P × [H2SO4]k). Large uncertainties were found also in the procedures that are used to determine the nucleation mechanism. When applied to individual events, the analysis tools clearly overestimated the number of H2SO4 molecules in a critical cluster for most events, and thus associated them with a wrong nucleation mechanism. However, in some conditions the number of H2SO4 molecules in a critical cluster was underestimated. This indicates that analysis of field data that implies a maximum of 2 H2SO4 molecules in a cluster does not automatically rule out a higher number of molecules in the actual nucleating cluster. Our analysis also suggests that combining data from several new particle formation events to scatter plots of H2SO4 vs formation rates (J1.5 or J3) and determining the slope of the regression line may not give reliable information about the nucleation mechanism. Overall, while the analysis tools for new particle formation are useful for getting order-of-magnitude estimates of parameters related to atmospheric nucleation, one should be very cautious in interpreting the results. It is, for example, possible that the tools may have misdirected our theoretical understanding of the nucleation mechanism.
Format: Digital (Free)[article]Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Donahue N.M.; Epstein S.A.; Pandis S.N.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011We develop the thermodynamic underpinnings of a two-dimensional volatility basis set (2D-VBS) employing saturation mass concentration (Co) and the oxygen content (O:C) to describe volatility, mixing thermodynamics, and chemical evolution of organic aerosol. The work addresses a simple question: "Can we reasonably constrain organic-aerosol composition in the atmosphere based on only two measurable organic properties, volatility and the extent of oxygenation?" This is an extension of our earlier one-dimensional approach employing volatility only (C* = γ Co, where γ is an activity coefficient). U ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Held A.; Brooks I.M.; Leck C.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011We present direct eddy covariance measurements of aerosol number fluxes, dominated by sub-50 nm particles, at the edge of an ice floe drifting in the central Arctic Ocean. The measurements were made during the ice-breaker borne ASCOS (Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study) expedition in August 2008 between 2°–10° W longitude and 87°–87.5° N latitude. The median aerosol transfer velocities over different surface types (open water leads, ice ridges, snow and ice surfaces) ranged from 0.27 to 0.68 mm s−1 during deposition-dominated episodes. Emission periods were observed more frequently over the open ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Jaeglé L.; Quinn P.K.; Bates T.S.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011We combine in situ measurements of sea salt aerosols (SS) from open ocean cruises and ground-based stations together with aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations from MODIS and AERONET, and the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to provide new constraints on SS emissions over the world's oceans. We find that the GEOS-Chem model using the Gong (2003) source function overestimates cruise observations of coarse mode SS mass concentrations by factors of 2–3 at high wind speeds over the cold waters of the Southern, North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Furthermore, the model systematical ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Huang M.; Carmichael Gregory R.; Spak S.N.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Chronic high surface ozone (O3) levels and the increasing sulfur oxides (SOx = SO2+SO4) ambient concentrations over South Coast (SC) and other areas of California (CA) are affected by both local emissions and long-range transport. In this paper, multi-scale tracer, full-chemistry and adjoint simulations using the STEM atmospheric chemistry model are conducted to assess the contribution of local emission sourcesto SC O3 and to evaluate the impacts of transported sulfur and local emissions on the SC sulfur budgetduring the ARCTAS-CARB experiment period in 2008. Sensitivity simulations quantify c ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Markovic M.Z.; Hayden K.L.; Murphy J.G.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) was an intensive, collaborative field campaign during the summer of 2007 that investigated the effects of transboundary pollution, local pollution, and local meteorology on air quality in southwestern Ontario. This analysis focuses on the measurements of the inorganic constituents of particulate matter with diameter of less than 1 μm (PM1), with a specific emphasis on nitrate. We evaluate the ability of AURAMS, Environment Canada's chemical transport model, to represent regional air pollution in SW Ontario by comparing modelled aerosol in ...PermalinkApparent evidence for a strong signature of solar activity in ground-based insolation data was recently reported. In particular, a strong increase of the irradiance of the direct solar beam with sunspot number as well as a decline of the brightness of the solar aureole and the measured precipitable water content of the atmosphere with solar activity were presented. The latter effect was interpreted as evidence for cosmic-ray-induced aerosol formation. Here I show that these spurious results are due to a failure to correct for seasonal variations and the effects of volcanic eruptions and local ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Tapia A.; Villanueva F.; Salgado M.S.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011A study of the kinetics and products obtained from the reactions of 3-methylfuran with the main atmospheric oxidants has been performed. The rate coefficients for the gas-phase reaction of 3-methylfuran with OH and NO3 radicals have been determined at room temperature and atmospheric pressure (air and N2 as bath gases), using a relative method with different experimental techniques. The rate coefficients obtained for these reactions were (in units cm3 molecule−1 s−1) kOH = (1.13 ± 0.22) × 10−10 and kNO3 = (1.26 ± 0.18) × 10−11. Products from the reaction of 3-methylfuran with OH, NO3 and Cl at ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Xu J.; Li C.; Shi H.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011This study investigated the decadal variation of the direct surface solar radiation (DiSR) and the diffuse surface solar radiation (DfSR) during 1961–2008 in the Shanghai megacity as well as their relationships to Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) under clear-sky conditions. Three successive periods with unique features of long term variation of DiSR were identified for both clear-sky and all-sky conditions: a "dimming" period from the late 1960s to the mid 1980s, a "stabilization"/"slight brightening" period from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s, and a "renewed dimming" period thereafter. During the ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Stroud C.A.; Makar P.A.; Moran M.D.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Regional-scale chemical transport model predictions of urban organic aerosol to date tend to be biased low relative to observations, a limitation with important implications for applying such models to human exposure health studies. We used a nested version of Environment Canada's AURAMS model (42- to- 15- to- 2.5-km nested grid spacing) to predict organic aerosol concentrations for a temporal and spatial domain corresponding to the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met), an air-quality field study that took place in the southern Great Lakes region in the summer of 2007. The use o ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Wojtal P.; Halla J.D.; McLaren R. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011A complete understanding of the formation mechanism of nitrous acid (HONO) in the ambient atmosphere is complicated by a lack of understanding of processes occurring when aqueous water is present. We report nocturnal measurements of HONO, SO2 and NO2 by differential optical absorption spectroscopy over the ocean surface in a polluted marine environment. In this aqueous environment, we observed reproducible pseudo steady states (PSS) of HONO every night, that are fully formed shortly after sunset, much faster than seen in urban environments. During the PSS period, HONO is constant with time, in ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 7. Vakkari V.; Laakso H.; Kulmala M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011This study is based on 18 months (20 July 2006–5 February 2008) of continuous measurements of aerosol particle size distributions, air ion size distributions, trace gas concentrations and basic meteorology in a semi-clean savannah environment in Republic of South Africa. New particle formation and growth was observed on 69% of the days and bursts of non-growing ions/sub-10 nm particles on additional 14% of the days. This new particle formation frequency is the highest reported from boundary layer so far. Also the new particle formation and growth rates were among the highest reported in the li ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Brock C.A.; Cozic J.; Bahreini R.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011We present an overview of the background, scientific goals, and execution of the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project of April 2008. We then summarize airborne measurements, made in the troposphere of the Alaskan Arctic, of aerosol particle size distributions, composition, and optical properties and discuss the sources and transport of the aerosols. The aerosol data were grouped into four categories based on gas-phase composition. First, the background troposphere contained a relatively diffuse, sulfate-rich aerosol extending from the top of the sea ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Aschmann J.; Sinnhuber B.-M.; Chipperfield M.P.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Stratospheric bromine loading due to very short-lived substances is investigated with a three-dimensional chemical transport model over a period of 21 years using meteorological input data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1989 to the end of 2009. Within this framework we analyze the impact of dehydration and deep convection on the amount of stratospheric bromine using an idealized and a detailed full chemistry approach. We model the two most important brominated short-lived substances, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), assumin ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Dearden C.; Connolly P.J.; Choularton T.W.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The effect of microphysical and environmental factors on the development of precipitation in warm idealised cloud is explored using a kinematic modelling framework. A simple one-dimensional column model is used to drive a suite of microphysics schemes including a flexible multi-moment bulk scheme (including both single and dual moment cloud liquid water) and a state-of-the-art bin-resolved scheme with explicit treatments of liquid and aerosol. The Factorial Method is employed to quantify and compare the sensitivities of each scheme under a set of controlled conditions, in order to isolate the ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. de la Torre Juárez M.; Davis A.B.; Fetzer E.J. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Means, standard deviations, homogeneity parameters used in models based on their ratio, and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of cloud properties from the MODerate resolution Infrared Spectrometer (MODIS) are estimated globally as function of averaging scale varying from 5 to 500 km. The properties – cloud fraction, droplet effective radius, and liquid water path – all matter for cloud-climate uncertainty quantification and reduction efforts. Global means and standard deviations are confirmed to change with scale. For the range of scales considered, global means vary only within 3% ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Feng L.; Palmer P.I.; Yang Y.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011We evaluate the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model (v8-02-01) of CO2 over 2003–2006, driven by GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorology from the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, using surface, aircraft and space-borne concentration measurements of CO2. We use an established ensemble Kalman Filter to estimate a posteriori biospheric+biomass burning (BS + BB) and oceanic (OC) CO2 fluxes from 22 geographical regions, following the TransCom-3 protocol, using boundary layer CO2 data from a subset of GLOBALVIEW surface sites. Global annual net BS + BB + OC CO2 fluxes over 2004–2006 for ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Flagg D.D.; Taylor P.A. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Mesoscale modeling of the urban boundary layer requires careful parameterization of the surface due to its heterogeneous morphology. Model estimated meteorological quantities, including the surface energy budget and canopy layer variables, will respond accordingly to the scale of representation. This study examines the sensitivity of the surface energy balance, canopy layer and boundary layer meteorology to the scale of urban surface representation in a real urban area (Detroit-Windsor (USA-Canada)) during several dry, cloud-free summer periods. The model used is the Weather Research and Forec ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Wu D.L.; Chae J.H.; Lambert A.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011A research algorithm is developed for noise evaluation and feature detection of the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Level 1 (L1) backscatter data with an emphasis on cloud/aerosol features in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). CALIOP measurement noise of the version v2.01 and v2.02 L1 backscatter data aggregated to (5 km) horizontal resolution is analyzed with two approaches in this study. One is to compare the observed and modeled molecular scatter profiles by scaling the modeled profile (with a fitted scaling factor α) to the observed clear-sky ba ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Rose D.; Gunthe S.S.; Su H.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) activity of aerosol particles in polluted mega-city air and biomass burning smoke were measured during the PRIDE-PRD2006 campaign near Guangzhou, China, using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), a volatility tandem differential mobility analyzer (VTDMA), and a continuous-flow CCN counter (DMT-CCNC).PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Schneising O.; Buchwitz M.; Reuter M.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributing to global climate change. SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (launch 2002) was the first and is now with TANSO onboard GOSAT (launch 2009) one of only two satellite instruments currently in space whose measurements are sensitive to CO2 and CH4 concentration changes in the lowest atmospheric layers where the variability due to sources and sinks is largest.PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Slowik J.G.; Brook J.; Chang R.Y.-W.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011As part of the BAQS-Met 2007 field campaign, Aerodyne time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometers (ToF-AMS) were deployed at two sites in southwestern Ontario from 17 June to 11 July 2007. One instrument was located at Harrow, ON, a rural, agriculture-dominated area approximately 40 km southeast of the Detroit/Windsor/Windsor urban area and 5 km north of Lake Erie. The second instrument was located at Bear Creek, ON, a rural site approximately 70 km northeast of the Harrow site and 50 km east of Detroit/Windsor. Positive matrix factorization analysis of the combined organic mass spectral dataset ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Russo M.R.; Marécal V.; Hoyle C.R.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, chemistry transport models (CTMs), and chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere) project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal c ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Kurtén T.; Petäjä T.; Smith J.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011The state-of-the art method for measuring atmospheric gas-phase sulfuric acid is chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) based on nitrate reagent ions. We have assessed the possible effect of the sulfuric acid molecules clustering with base molecules on CIMS measurements using computational chemistry. From the computational data, three conclusions can be drawn. First, a significant fraction of the gas-phase sulfuric acid molecules are very likely clustered with amines if the amine concentration is around or above a few ppt. Second, some fraction of these acid-amine clusters may not be cha ...PermalinkAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), Vol. 11. N° 3. Li J.; Hu Y.; Huang J.; et al. - Copernicus GmbH, 2011A method is developed based on Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) level 1 attenuated backscatter profile data for deriving the mean extinction coefficient of water droplets close to cloud top. The method is applicable to low level (cloud topPermalinkis an issue of Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Meteorological Society of Japan, 2011Permalinkis an issue of Rivista di Meteorologia. Organo del Servizio Meteorologico dell'Aeronautica, 2011Contiene tali:
- Il caldo anomalo del 2003 in Italia: anomalie climatiche ed
inquinamento da ozono
- HSAF - Hydrology Satellite Application Facilities: un progetto
europeo con finalità di servizio e impiego operativo
- Nuovo approccio alle previsioni stagionali: analisi
- Simulazione del Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager
attraverso dati reali rilevati dal satellite NASA TRMM - LIS
- Intensità delle precipitazioni: campagna internazionale di
misura a Vigna di Valle organizzata dal Ser ...Permalinkis an issue of iLEAPS Newsletter. iLEAPS, 2011The latest iLEAPS Newsletter No. 10 deals with "Terrestrial feedbacks and Earth system models".PermalinkGiven the likely pace of change in the electric vehicle market, it is important that the environmental externalities are identified and quantified. In this report we present the results of a modelling study which investigated how ozone pollution in the Greater Metropolitan Region of Sydney NSW, Australia would respond to the replacement of Sydney’s internal combustion engine (ICE) passenger vehicle fleet with a fleet of electric vehicles. A brief description of the modelling methodology is provided in the next section, and a summary of the modelling outcomes is provided in the following sectio ...PermalinkThe International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2008, co-sponsored by ICSU and WMO, became the largest coordinated research program in the Earth’s polar regions, following in the footsteps of its predecessor, the first and second International Polar Years in 1881-1883 and 1932-1933 and the International Geophysical Year 1957–1958.
An estimated 50,000 researchers, local observers, educators, students, and support personnel from more than 60 nations were involved in the 228 international IPY projects (170 in science, 1 in data management, and 57 in education and outreach) and related national eff ...PermalinkThe aims of the meeting are to: 1) understand the role of atmospheric chemistry and composition in global atmospheric change as expressed in the Australasian region and internationally; and 2) to provide a forum for atmospheric composition researchers from different disciplines (in-situ observations, remote sensing observations, modelling) to share ideas, enhance collaboration and develop a coordinated regional approach to characterising atmospheric processes in Australasia.PermalinkPermalinkThe WMO Strategic Plan is the result of an organization-wide strategic, operational and budgeting process to provide a blueprint for the 188 Member States and Territories to meet the changing needs of their communities for weather, climate, water and related environmental information.PermalinkThis white paper is a synthesis of several recent workshops, reports and published literature: (Smith et al., 2011; Anderson et al. 2011; Weller et al. 2010; Meehl et al. 2009; Hurrell et al. 2009; Shukla et al. 2010 and Brunet et al. 2010). The intent is to document: (i) the scientific basis for prediction from weeks to decades; (ii) current capabilities; and (iii) outstanding challenges. We focus on time--‐scales from beyond the time scale of deterministic weather (i.e., sub--‐seasonal) to decadal.PermalinkGiven the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we fin ...PermalinkPermalinkPermalinkPermalinkPermalinkPermalinkAntarctic Record, Vol. 54, No. 2. Ushio Shuki - Scholarly and Academic Information Navigator (CiNii), 2010The wintering party of the 49th Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE-49), consisting of 29 members, was conducted as the second year of the 7th four-year plan of JARE and the second half of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY2007-2008) at Syowa Station and its surrounding areas. JARE-49 took over management of the station facilities and functions from JARE-48 on February 1, 2008, and performed scientific observations and logistic duties. Though it was a little smaller in terms of number of wintering personnel than previous teams, it was well prepared to perform station manageme ...PermalinkThe performance of a 1-D soil model in a semiarid area of North China was investigated using observational data from a cropland station at the Tongyu reference site of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) during the non-growing period, when the ground surface was covered with bare soil. Comparisons between simulated and observed soil surface energy balance components as well as soil temperatures and water contents were conducted to validate the soil model. Results show that the soil model could produce good simulations of soil surface temperature, net radiation flux and sensible he ...PermalinkOn the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model (Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model, hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM), the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated. The predictive skill of sea level pressures (SLP) and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model. Furthermore, the model ski ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 6. Liu Hui-Zhi; Sang Jian-Guo - Science Press, 2010The present study solves a two-layer atmospheric wave equation model with a lower atmosphere concave wind profile and cold-air outbreak over sea, while simultaneously proving that such a wind shear may cause neutral boundary layer roll vortices in the presence of disturbing sources upstream. Without thermal effects, the wind shear-induced waves have band structures at the top of the boundary layer that are similar to cloud street patterns observed over sea. This study proves that dynamic and thermal effects can act independently to initiate the roll vortices in the lower atmosphere. At the sam ...PermalinkAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Volume 3 Number 6. Yu En-Tao; Wang Hui-Jun; Sun Jian-Qi - Science Press, 2010This paper describes a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model system, which consists of the modified Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) nested with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Results show that dynamical downscaling is of great value in improving the model simulation of regional climatic characteristics. WRF simulates regional detailed temperature features better than CAM. With the spatial correlation coefficient between the observation and the simulation increasing from 0.54 for CAM to 0.79 for WRF, the improvement in precipitation simulati ...Permalinkis an issue of 気象研究所技術報告. Tsujino Hiroyuki; Motoi Tatsuo; Ishikawa Ichiro - Meteorological Research Institute, 2010This technical report is a manual of the Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM). MRI.COM is an ocean general circulation model developed and maintained at the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). As the name suggests, it has been used for studying large scale oceanic phenomena and as the oceanic part of the coupled climate models developed at MRIPermalink