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A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot
The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. Thi ...
[article]A Comparison Study of the Contributions of Additional Observations in the Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOP and FSV to Reducing Forecast Error Variance for the Typhoon Morakot
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Available online: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=AOSL10038
in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters > Volume 3 Number 5 (16 September 2010) . - p.258-262The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyTags: Region II - Asia ; Region V - South-West Pacific ; Forecast error ; Preventing and mitigating natural disasters ; Weather forecasting ; Natural hazards ; Typhoon
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Volume 3 Number 3 - 16 May 2010
is an issue of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. Science Press, 2010Contains:
- Analysis of a Beijing Heavy Snowfall Related to an Inverted Trough in November 2009
LI Jin,ZHAO Si-Xiong,YU Fei
- Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain
PING Fan,LUO Zhe-Xian
- An Improved Atmospheric Vector Radiative Transfer Model Incorporating Rough Ocean Boundaries
FAN Xue-Hua,CHEN Hong-Bin,HAN Zhi-Gang,LIN Long-Fu
- A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in ...
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Available online: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aosl/ch/reader/new_year_article.aspx?year_id=2010&q [...]
Contains:
- Analysis of a Beijing Heavy Snowfall Related to an Inverted Trough in November 2009
LI Jin,ZHAO Si-Xiong,YU Fei
- Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain
PING Fan,LUO Zhe-Xian
- An Improved Atmospheric Vector Radiative Transfer Model Incorporating Rough Ocean Boundaries
FAN Xue-Hua,CHEN Hong-Bin,HAN Zhi-Gang,LIN Long-Fu
- A Case Study of the Impacts of Dust Aerosols on Surface Atmospheric Variables and Energy Budgets in a Semi-Arid Region of China
LING Xiao-Lu,GUO Wei-Dong,ZHANG Lei,ZHANG Ren-Jian
- A Recent Approach Incorporating External Forces to Predict Nonstationary Processes
WANG Ge-Li,YANG Pei-Cai
- The Northern Path of Asian Dust Transport from the Gobi Desert to North America
CHEN Ke-Yi
- Response of the Kuroshio Current to Eddies in the Luzon Strait
ZHAO Jie,LUO De-Hai
- A Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function-Based Scheme for the Balanced Initial Ensemble Generation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter
ZHENG Fei,ZHU Jiang
- The Sensitive Regions Identified by CNOPs of Three Typhoon Events
QIN Xiao-Hao
- Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario
WANG Hui-Jun,ZHANG YingLanguage(s): English
Format: Digital (Free) (ill., charts)Tags: Weather ; Heavy snowfall ; Heavy rain ; Air pollution ; Tropical cyclone ; Melting Ice ; Climate change ; Scenario ; Region II - Asia ; China
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Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, 2nd Edition, Chapter 8: Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclones are the deadliest tropical weather systems. This chapter describes their seasonal and geographic variability and controls, decadal cycles, and history of naming conventions. Tropical cyclogenesis is explored in depth and the core and balance solutions for regions of the cyclone are examined. Intensity is considered in terms of inner-core dynamics, large-scale environmental controls, limits on potential intensity, satellite interpretation techniques, and classification by wind speed. Factors that influence motion are investigated. Extratropical transition is described in terms ...
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=868
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2010
Tropical cyclones are the deadliest tropical weather systems. This chapter describes their seasonal and geographic variability and controls, decadal cycles, and history of naming conventions. Tropical cyclogenesis is explored in depth and the core and balance solutions for regions of the cyclone are examined. Intensity is considered in terms of inner-core dynamics, large-scale environmental controls, limits on potential intensity, satellite interpretation techniques, and classification by wind speed. Factors that influence motion are investigated. Extratropical transition is described in terms of structural changes, preceding mechanisms, and impact on high latitudes. Societal impacts and mitigation are also covered.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Tropical cyclone ; Hurricane ; Tropical wave ; Storm surge ; Typhoon ; Tropical meteorology ; Lesson/ Tutorial
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Hurricane Strike!™
Designed primarily for middle school students and funded by FEMA and the NWS, this module creates a scenario to frame learning activities that focus on hurricane science and safety. Versions are also available for hearing, motor, and visually impaired students, as well as Spanish-speaking students. Over the course of seven days, Hurricane Erin forms in the Atlantic Ocean, crosses the Florida peninsula, and then makes another landfall at Fort Walton Beach. During these days, the learner is introduced to many basic concepts of atmospheric science, climate, and geography, while also learning some ...
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=31
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2010
Designed primarily for middle school students and funded by FEMA and the NWS, this module creates a scenario to frame learning activities that focus on hurricane science and safety. Versions are also available for hearing, motor, and visually impaired students, as well as Spanish-speaking students. Over the course of seven days, Hurricane Erin forms in the Atlantic Ocean, crosses the Florida peninsula, and then makes another landfall at Fort Walton Beach. During these days, the learner is introduced to many basic concepts of atmospheric science, climate, and geography, while also learning some important and possibly life-saving safety and preparedness skills. The module includes several interactive games and activities that address hurricane meteorology and hurricane safety. Teachers and others who use the module for public education will find the "Information for Teachers" section particularly useful. This section provides information about all of the main learning objects in the module, as well as access to them as stand-alone activities. Links to numerous hurricane-related Web sites are also included, as are links to expert advice about helping children deal with trauma. Worksheets that test the learner's understanding of the module's content are provided in this section. Students access a different worksheet each day on the "printer" in the scenario's home office.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Tropical cyclone ; Weather ; Wind ; Hurricane ; Storm surge ; Cyclone ; Lesson/ Tutorial
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A Forecaster's Overview of the Northwest Pacific
This module provides an introduction to the northwest Pacific for weather forecasters. It touches on major aspects of the geography, oceanography, and climatology. Geography looks at plate tectonics, topography, and human population. Oceanography examines ocean currents, coastal tidal ranges, and sea ice distribution. Climatology briefly discusses jets streams, distribution of synoptic features, storm tracks of tropical and extratropical cyclones, the fronts, and sensible weather associated with the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons.
Available online: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=569
Published by: The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research ; 2010
This module provides an introduction to the northwest Pacific for weather forecasters. It touches on major aspects of the geography, oceanography, and climatology. Geography looks at plate tectonics, topography, and human population. Oceanography examines ocean currents, coastal tidal ranges, and sea ice distribution. Climatology briefly discusses jets streams, distribution of synoptic features, storm tracks of tropical and extratropical cyclones, the fronts, and sensible weather associated with the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons.
Disclaimer regarding 3rd party resources: WMO endeavours to ensure, but cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, accessibility, integrity and timeliness of the information available on its website. WMO may make changes to the content of this website at any time without notice.
The responsibility for opinions expressed in articles, publications, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their posting on this website does not constitute an endorsement by WMO of the opinion expressed therein.
WMO shall not be liable for any damages incurred as a result of the use of its website. Please do not misuse our website.Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Standard Copyright)Tags: Tropical cyclone ; Marine meteorology ; Climate services ; Lesson/ Tutorial ; Climatology ; Monsoon ; Sea ice ; Extratropical cyclone ; Competencies for Provision of Climate Services ; Marine Weather Forecasters ; China ; Japan ; Yellow Sea
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WWRP 2010-2 - 1st WMO International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Contains: Inter-annual Variation of Frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances Landfalling over WMO/ESCAP Panel Member Countries; Toward Improved Projection of the Future Tropical Cyclone Changes; An Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Cyclone Frequency and Design Wave Height in the Oman Sea; Long-Range Prediction of Tropical Cyclones for Bangladesh; On Developing a Tropical Cyclone Archive and Climatology for the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans; International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Synthesizing Global Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data; Simulation of Track and In ...
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WWRP, 03. Training workshop on tropical cyclone forecasting wmo typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project
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WWRP, 04. WWRP 2010-4 - 2nd WMO International Workshop on Tropical Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-II)
Severe calamities and fatalities have arisen from landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) around the world in recent years, such as Morakot (August 2009) in western North Pacific, Nargis (May 2008) in Bay of Bengal, Gonu (June 2007) in North Arabian Sea, Bilis (July 2006) in western North Pacific, Katrina (August 2005) in Gulf of Mexico, and Catarina (March 2004) in South Atlantic etc. Transferring the advancements from the research community to operational forecast centers in NMHSs would be helpful for improving the landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) forecasts and for mitigation of high-impact tro ...
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1541. 1st WMO International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
WMO, 2010
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Guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in tropical cyclone conditions
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Kepert Jeffrey David; Ginger J.D. - WMO, 2010 (WMO/TD-No. 1555)
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Report on UN ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members Disaster Management System
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) - WMO, 2009 (WMO/TD-No. 1476)
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WWRP, 2008-04. Expert meeting to evaluate skills of tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts
This expert meeting was organized in response to the recommendations of the Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones to develop a common set of metrics to evaluate the skill of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts and report on a central website hosted by WMO. Camargo et al. summarized in the October 2007 issue of the WMO Bulletin a number of statistical and dynamical seasonal forecasts. Representatives of each type of forecast were part of the expert team. Issues confronted when attempting to conduct an evaluation of forecasts produced by different groups
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