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Том 64(2) - 2015 г. - Решение проблем, связанных с изменением климата
is an issue of Бюллетень. Всемирная Метеорологическая Организация (BMO); Всемирная Метеорологическая Организация (BMO) - BMO, 2016
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Призыв к созданию этической основы для климатического обслуживания
Климатическое обслуживание обладает потенциалом, чтобы вносить вклад в обеспечение безопасности человека путем повышения способности человека увеличивать социальные выгоды и уменьшать потери, связанные с климатом. По мере продолжающегося изменения природных климатических характеристик обществу потребуется более своевременное и надежное климатическое обслуживание, которое поможет ему понять связанные с климатом риски и научит извлекать выгоду из соответствующих возможностей.
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Путь к предоставлению климатического обслуживания странам СИДС
Бюллетень, Том 64(2). BMO, 2016Страны Карибского и Тихоокеанского бассейнов и Малые островные развивающиеся государства (СИДС) чрезвычайно уязвимы к воздействию опасных гидроме- теорологических явлений. Предполагается, что в бли- жайшие годы изменение климата будет способствовать увеличению частоты и интенсивности таких явлений на этих островах, при этом их уязвимость повысится также в связи с нарушением экосистем и уничтожением источников существования. Поэтому, пытаясь повысить устойчивость к экстремальным метеорологическим явлениям и пагубным воздействиям изменения кли- мата, Всемирный метеорологический конгресс в июне о ...
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Конкурс «Полярный вызов»: расширение границ наблюдений в целях исследования климата и обслуживания
Бюллетень, Том 64(2). BMO, 2016Криосфера является основным индикатором глобального изменения климата и играет существенную роль в клима- тической системе. Несмотря на успехи в области числен- ного моделирования, надежность долгосрочных прогнозов изменения климата в Арктике и Антарктике существенно ограничена недостатком систематических наблюдений in situ за морским льдом и подледной областью. По этой причине Всемирная программа исследований климата (ВПИК)1 и Фонд Принца Монако Альберта II спонсируют конкурс «Полярный вызов (Polar Challenge)»2, победителем которого станет группа, первой выполнившая программу измерений с испо ...
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Управление рисками с помощью климатической прогностической продукции и обслуживания
Бюллетень, Том 64(2). BMO, 2016масштабах от недель до десятилетий увеличивается по мере того, как частный и государственный секторы признают их актуальность для формирования кли- матической устойчивости и адаптации к изменению климата. Различные типы пользователей стремятся получить специализированное климатическое обслу- живание для принятия долгосрочных решений и пла- нирования для заблаговременного предупреждения о потенциальных опасных явлениях и для адаптации и смягчения изменчивости и изменения климата. Сотрудничество в рамках Глобальной климатической основы для климатического обслуживания (ГРОКО) обеспечивает более э ...
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Почему наличие доступа к качественным климатическим данным имеет значение?
На всем протяжении истории человечества погодные условия оказывали большое влияние на рост торговли и населения. Однако в мире, переживающем изменение климата, прошлые предположения относительно погоды больше не имеют под собой почвы. Местные, региональ- ные и национальные правительства, а также предприятия пытаются справиться с ролью органов, принимающих решения. Лицам и органам, принимающим решения как в частном, так и государственном секторе нужна доступная, надежная и актуальная климатическая инфор- мация, чтобы повысить устойчивость к воздействию более интенсивных и частых экстремальных я ...
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Климатическое обслуживание сектора энергетики: новая приоритетная область ГРОКО
Энергетические системы являются двигателем эконо- мического и социального развития. Их вклад образует значительную часть ВВП любой страны. Несомненно, энергетика жизненно необходима для всех аспектов благосостояния человека, включая доступ к воде, сельскохозяйственное производство, здравоохранение, образование, создание рабочих мест и устойчивость окружающей среды. Кроме того, на выбросы пред- приятий энергетического сектора, таких как выбросы CO2, приходится наибольшая доля глобальных антро- погенных выбросов парниковых газов (ПГ). Ожидается, что достижение целевых показателей по сокращению в ...
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Climate Predictability in the Stratosphere
In order to accurately predict the day-to-day evolution of weather systems, one needs a detailed description of the initial state of the atmosphere. A good picture of the actual atmospheric conditions is therefore required. Predictability of the atmosphere associated with its initial state is, however, limited to approximately 10 days. Beyond this limit, only statistical properties of atmospheric conditions can be predicted. Of these, the mean state of the atmosphere over some period of time and the probability of extreme weather events are perhaps the most relevant for society.
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Status of the Global Observing System for Climate
Bulletin, Vol. 65(1). WMO, 2016This article highlights the main finding and conclusions of the Status of the Global Observing System for Climate (Report)1, published in late 2015. The Report offers an extensive account of how well climate is currently being observed, where progress has been made, where progress is lacking or where deterioration has occurred. It provides a basis for identifying the actions required to reduce gaps in knowledge, to improve monitoring and prediction, to support mitigation, and to help meet increasingly urgent needs for information on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
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Highlights from the First Five-yearly Statement on the Status of the Global Climate
Bulletin, Vol. 65(1). WMO, 2016In the last few months, 2015’s status as the warmest year on record has been making headlines around the world. The WMO annual Statements on the Status of the Global Climate are an important part of the global climate monitoring that has arrived at this conclusion. Now, for the first time, WMO has issued a five-yearly Statement on the Status of the Global Climate, covering 2011–2015.
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Gérer les risques à l’aide des produits et services de prévision climatique
Bulletin, Vol. 64(2). OMM, 2016La demande de previsions climatiques a echeance de quelques semaines a plusieurs decennies augmente car les decideurs du secteur public et du secteur prive se rendent mieux compte de leur utilite pour accroitre la resilience et renforcer l’adaptation a l’egard du changement climatique. Differentes categories d’utilisateurs souhaitent recevoir des services specialises qui facilitent la prise de decision et la planification a long terme, qui ameliorent l’alerte precoce de dangers potentiels et qui favorisent l’adaptation et l’attenuation face a la variabilite et a l’evolution du climat. Le Cadre ...
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Les services climatologiques destinés au secteur de l’énergie: nouveau domaine prioritaire pour le CMSC
Bulletin, Vol. 64(2). OMM, 2016Les systemes de production d’energie sont le moteur du developpement economique et social. Les investissements realises a ce titre representent une part importante du PIB d’un pays. De fait, l’energie est indispensable au bien-etre des populations dans pratiquement tous ses aspects, dont l’acces a l’eau, la productivite agricole, la sante, l’education, la creation d’emplois et la protection de l’environnement. Ce secteur est aussi responsable de la plus grande part des rejets de gaz a effet de serre (GES), tel le CO2, dans le monde. Les objectifs de reduction des emissions fixes par la Convent ...
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Surveillance des concentrations de carbone et de l’acidifi cation des océans
Bulletin, Vol. 64(1). OMM, 2016La concentration atmosphérique de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) a augmenté de 42 % depuis le début de l’ère industrielle à cause des émissions provenant de l’exploitation des combustibles fossiles, de la production de ciment et des changements d’aff ectation des terres (Bulletin de l’OMM sur les gaz à eff et de serre, N° 10). En 2010, on estime que les océans du globe avaient déjà absorbé 155 ± 30 pétagrammes (Pg) (1 pétagramme = 1015 g) de CO2 anthropique (Khatiwala et al., 2013), soit 28 % des émissions totales de CO2. Ce phénomène a limité la hausse de la concentration atmosphérique de CO2 et a ...
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Progrès réalisés dans l’observation et la prévision du phénomène ENSO
Bulletin, Vol. 64(1). OMM, 2016Les gouvernements, les entreprises du secteur privé et les particuliers sont de plus en plus exigeants lorsqu’il s’agit de la qualité des services climatologiques, d’où l’importance du Cadre mondial pour les services climatologiques (CMSC). Cependant, certaines composantes du réseau d’observation de l’océan – pourtant essentielles à la prestation de ces services – risquent de se dégrader, et les systèmes de prévision climatique ont du mal à rester au fait des attentes croissantes quant à l’exactitude et à la fi abilité des services.1234
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Services climatiques – Transition du projet CLIPS au CMSC
En 1995, le Congrès météorologique mondial a établi le projet CLIPS (Services d’information et de prévision climatologiques) afi n de fournir les meilleures informations possible sur le climat, y compris des projections sur les conditions futures, afi n d’étayer la prise de décisions d’ordre économique et social en vue de réduire les risques, de stimuler le dynamisme économique et d’améliorer la qualité de vie des populations. Depuis sa création le projet CLIPS a contribué à accroître nos connaissances sur le climat, à améliorer les capacités des services opérationnels de prévision des conditi ...
Руководящие принципы по наилучшим практикам спасения климатических данных (ВМО-№ 1182)
This technical document is an update of WMO/TD-1210, WCDMP-55, Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue (2004). It builds on the original Guidelines, while taking into account both changes in technology that have occurred in the intervening 12 years and lessons learned in more recent climate data rescue activities around the world. An overview of data rescue is presented with chapters on its importance, archiving original media, imaging, digitization and archiving digital images and digital data. Twelve appendices provide supporting information.
مبادئ توجیهیة بشأن أفضل الممارسات المتعلقة بإنقاذ البیانات المناخیة (WMO-No. 1182)
This technical document is an update of WMO/TD-1210, WCDMP-55, Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue (2004). It builds on the original Guidelines, while taking into account both changes in technology that have occurred in the intervening 12 years and lessons learned in more recent climate data rescue activities around the world. An overview of data rescue is presented with chapters on its importance, archiving original media, imaging, digitization and archiving digital images and digital data. Twelve appendices provide supporting information.
The Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue are intend ...
Directrices sobre mejores prácticas para el rescate de datos climáticos (OMM-Nº 1182)
El presente documento técnico es una actualización de la publicación WMO/TD-No. 1210, WCDMP-55, Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue (2004) (Directrices sobre el rescate de datos climáticos). Se basa en las directrices originales, pero, al mismo tiempo, en él se tienen en cuenta tanto los cambios tecnológicos surgidos a lo largo de los 12 años transcurridos como las enseñanzas extraídas de actividades de rescate de datos climáticos más recientes llevadas a cabo en todo el mundo. Se presenta un panorama general del rescate de datos, y en los diversos capítulos se abordan cuestiones como su importa ...
Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue (WMO-No. 1182)
This technical document is an update of WMO/TD-1210, WCDMP-55, Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue (2004). It builds on the original Guidelines, while taking into account both changes in technology that have occurred in the intervening 12 years and lessons learned in more recent climate data rescue activities around the world. An overview of data rescue is presented with chapters on its importance, archiving original media, imaging, digitization and archiving digital images and digital data. Twelve appendices provide supporting information.
The Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue are intend ...
Directives sur les bonnes pratiques en matière de sauvetage des données climatologiques (OMM-N° 1182)
Le présent document technique résulte de la mise à jour de la publication intitulée Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue (2004) (WMO/TD-1210, WCDMP-55). Il prend en compte l’évolution de la technologie depuis douze ans et tire les enseignements des opérations de sauvetage des données les plus récentes menées dans le monde. On y trouvera une présentation générale du concept de sauvetage des données, suivie de chapitres consacrés à l’importance de cette activité, à l’archivage des supports d’origine, à leur numérisation en mode image, à la numérisation des données et à l’archivage des images et des ...
气候数据拯救最佳做法指导原则 (WMO-No. 1182)
This technical document is an update of WMO/TD-1210, WCDMP-55, Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue (2004). It builds on the original Guidelines, while taking into account both changes in technology that have occurred in the intervening 12 years and lessons learned in more recent climate data rescue activities around the world. An overview of data rescue is presented with chapters on its importance, archiving original media, imaging, digitization and archiving digital images and digital data. Twelve appendices provide supporting information.
The Guidelines on Climate Data Rescue are intend ...
Communicating Climate Change Scenarios With Decision Makers: Lecture by Dr. Holly Hartmann, Research Hydrologist
In this 1-hour lecture, presented in three parts, research hydrologist Dr. Holly Hartmann discusses issues and approaches for communicating with decision-makers regarding climate change topics in water management and planning. Dr. Hartmann is a national leader in research related to the development of decision support tools for climate, water, and other resource management applications, especially linking research with the needs of decision-makers and moving research into agency operations. Dr. Hartmann is Carpe Diem West’s Director of Climate Science Applications. Previously she was Director ...
Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change
Climate is changing at unprecedented rates in recorded history. A variety of lines of evidence demonstrate that climate change is likely to affect the hydrologic cycle and thus create new challenges in water management. This requires that climate change information be included in water and water-related resources planning, operations, and management. Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change describes the terminology, global evidence, regional manifestations, and basic science of global climate variability and anthropogenic change, with a focus on water res ...
Forecasters' Overview of the Mediterranean and Europe
This module provides an introduction to the European continent and the Mediterranean and Black Sea areas for weather forecasters. It focuses on geography, climatology, oceanography, major aspects of the synoptic and mesoscale weather patterns, and hazards to aviation and maritime operations. Geography covers major political boundaries, cities, ports, topographical features, rivers, and volcanic areas. Climatology covers the seasonal climatology of jet stream, synoptic weather systems, extratropical cyclones, and high winds and seas. Oceanography includes major bathymetric features; mean sea su ...
Climate Variability and Change for Water Resources Management - International Edition
Climate is changing at unprecedented rates in recorded history. A variety of lines of evidence demonstrate that climate change is likely to affect the hydrologic cycle and thus create new challenges in water management. This requires that climate change information be included in water and water-related resources planning, operations, and management. Climate Variability and Change for Water Resources Management - International Edition describes the terminology, global evidence, regional manifestations, and basic science of global climate variability and anthropogenic change, with a focus on wa ...
The Science of Radio Occultation and the COSMIC Mission
The lesson provides an overview of radio occultation and its contributions to our understanding of Earth's atmosphere as demonstrated by the COSMIC mission launched in 2006. The lesson is divided into three chapters: Chapter 1 describes the science of radio occultation and how atmospheric profiles are obtained. Chapter 2 focuses on the benefits of radio occultation and COSMIC observations for numerous applications related to meteorology, climate, and space weather. Chapter 3 describes the COSMIC-2/FORMOSAT-7 mission and its expected improvements to further inform meteorology, climate, and iono ...
Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 2: General Principles in Integrating Climate Change
This lesson describes a common approach used by the United States Bureau of Reclamation to scope a study on integrating climate change information into water resources management and planning. Learners will become familiar with the types of questions that must be addressed for considering climate change impacts when scoping their study. Examples are given for several different water resources mission areas. Note that this is the second of a two lesson series, the first one is titled, "Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change."
Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 2: General Principles in Integrating Climate Change
This lesson describes a common approach used by the United States Bureau of Reclamation to scope a study on integrating climate change information into water resources management and planning. Learners will become familiar with the types of questions that must be addressed for considering climate change impacts when scoping their study. Examples are given for several different water resources mission areas. Note that this is the second of a two lesson series, the first one is titled, "Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change."
Sea Level Change: Basics
This lesson describes the physical processes, both natural and human-induced, that lead to changes in sea level. The processes described include climate induced changes in ocean heat content and volume, natural oceanic cycles, and both natural and human-induced changes in coastal land elevation. The learning is enhanced with rich graphics and periodic questions.
Interpreting Climate Outlooks: An Australian Example
Climate outlooks provide probability-based information about expected rainfall and temperatures at timescales of months or longer. This lesson demonstrates how monthly and seasonal outlooks issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology can be combined with other information for use in decision-making by persons in climate-sensitive sectors. The lesson explains the main drivers affecting Australia's climate—ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode, and the subtropical ridge—and explores how the status of the climate drivers can affect the outlook maps as well as confidence in the outlo ...
Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 2: General Principles in Integrating Climate Change
This lesson describes a common approach used by the United States Bureau of Reclamation to scope a study on integrating climate change information into water resources management and planning. Learners will become familiar with the types of questions that must be addressed for considering climate change impacts when scoping their study. Examples are given for several different water resources mission areas. Note that this is the second of a two lesson series, the first one is titled, "Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change."
Ocean Acidification
The chemistry of the world’s oceans is changing. Ocean acidity is creeping upward, a result of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The added carbon dioxide depletes seawater of carbonate, a chemical constituent of minerals that form the shells and structures of animals including corals, molluscs, plankton, and others. The accelerating impacts are expected to reverberate through the marine food web. Most people are unaware of ocean acidification and its expected impacts. This lesson will educate policy makers and university students about its causes and consequences. The lesson explains the chem ...
INDARE, Indian Ocean Data Rescue Initiative : summary report
This publication provides a summary of a capacity building workshop on Data Rescue (DARE), Quality Control (QC), Homogenisation and Climate Change Indices held in Arusha, Tanzania from 9-14 November 2015 as part of the implementation of the Indian Ocean Data Rescue (INDARE) initiative. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Comoros, Kenya, Madagascar, Maldives, Mozambique, Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Tanzania participated in the workshop and received the necessary knowledge and software to undertake QC and homogenisation of their climate time series and use them for analysing c ...
Pacific Islands Meteorological Services in Action : A Compendium of Climate Services Case Studies
SPREP ; Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI); Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland ; et al. - SPREP, 2016
Statistical approach towards subseasonal prediction over the Maritime Continent
Ismail Norlaila - 이화여자대학교 대학원, 2016
Use of Climate Predictions to Manage Risks
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) - WMO, 2016 (WMO-No. 1174)
Regional Climate Outlook Forums
A Regional Climate Outlook Forum is a platform that brings together climate experts and sector representatives from countries in a climatologically homogenous region to provide consensus based climate prediction and information, with input from global and regional producing centres and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, with the aim of gaining substantial socio-economic benefits in climate sensitive sectors.
Ocean, climate and weather: the role of the World Meteorological Organization
When it comes to the weather, most of us think only about what is happening in the atmosphere. If we ignore the ocean, however, we miss a big piece of the picture: covering some 70 per cent of the Earth’s surface, the ocean is a major driver of the world’s weather and climate. The ocean is also a major driver of the global economy, carrying more than 90 per cent of world trade and sustaining the 40 per cent of humanity that lives within 100 km of the coast. Recognizing this, national weather agencies and researchers regularly monitor the ocean, model how it affects the atmosphere and deliver m ...
The Global Climate in 2011–2015
This report describes the evolution of the climate system during the period 2011–2015. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has assessed this five-year period in order to contribute to a better understanding of multiyear warming trends and extreme events that can help governments to implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change more effectively.
Weather, Climate and Hydrological services: how WMO supports the 2030 agenda for sustainable development
Weather, climate and water can either disrupt sustainable development or advance it. The providers of weather, climate, hydrological, marine and related environmental services therefore have a critical role to play in assisting countries to implement the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). High-quality meteorological services empower decision-makers to better manage agriculture, public health, water resources, energy production, transportation and other sectors that are critical for national development.
International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, third workshop (IBTrACS-III), Report and Recommendations : final report
Knapp Kenneth - WMO, 2016The 3rd international IBTrACS workshop was held in Honolulu, Hawaii, on 16-February-2016. This workshop was held in conjunction with the 2nd International Workshop on the Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones, and so was an opportunity to have a good cross-section of the international tropical cyclone community in order to advance the work of IBTrACS in serving the needs and requirements of IBTrACS users. NCEI’s Kenneth Knapp conducted the workshop in person and was supported by members of NCEI’s IBTrACS team (Howard Diamond, James Kossin, Michael Kruk, and Carl Schreck) on the phone in help ...
Projection of Future Streamflow Changes in the Pearl River Basin
Global climate change is remarkably changing the climatic patterns of the Pearl River basin and are significantly impacting the hydrological processes. Projection of future climate change impacts on steamflow variation is potential to provide scientific guidelines for sustainable water resources management and effective prevention and control for flood and drought disasters. In this study, a hydrological modeling system for assessing climate change impacts on runoffin the Pearl River basin was established and were used to simulate historical hydrological process and to project future streamflo ...
Variability of Benin JJAS Precipitation associated with MAM SST Anomaly in the Atlantic Ocean
Precipitations vary consistently in Benin from 1981 to 2010. The present study reveals that the variation of Benin JJAS precipitation is positively correlated to MAM Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Atlantic Ocean with correlation coefficient more than 0.7. When the SST is higher (lower) in the Atlantic Ocean, precipitation over Benin tends to be above (below) normal. The years 1988, 1989, 2003, 2007 and 2008, were wet with 1988, 2003, 2008 high SST over Tropical Southern Atlantic Ocean (STAO) while the years 1982, 1983, 1992 and 1997 formed the dry years with low SST over Tropical Southern At ...
GAW Report, 226. Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/ Climate Modelling (CCMM): status and relevance for numerical weather prediction, atmospheric pollution and climate research
Online coupled meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. This report provides the main conclusions from the Symposium on “Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology/Climate Modelling: Status and Relevance for Numerical Weather Prediction, Air Quality and ...
Climate Services for Supporting Climate Change Adaptation : Supplement to the Technical Guidelines for The National Adaptation Plan Process
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) - WMO, 2016 (WMO-No. 1170)Because of the current and projected impacts on climate due to the high levels of greenhousegas (GHG) emissions, adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales in a changing climate. At its 17th session, the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process as a way to facilitate effective adaptation planning in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and other developing countries. The four key elements that need to be undertaken in the development of NAPs are: Laying the groundwork and addressin ...
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