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The Sahel Drought Mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. A ...Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. Although the region is still yet to fully recover from the early 1980s devastating droughts, but in recent decades the Sahel is not as dry as it used to be in the 1980s. An EOF analysis of Atlantic and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs), SPI reveal a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in SSTs and precipitation induced mode of inter-annual variations as the two leading patterns, respectively. Our results from analysis of the two Oceans’ SSTs refute the conclusion of earlier studies that southward shift of tropical Atlantic SSTs, and steady warming in the Indian Ocean which enhances subsidence over the Sahel through Ross-by waves caused the severe Sahel drought. The results of this study may only be useful in this context and should not imply that SSTs variability in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean solely explains rainfall variability over the Sahel, but rather that the combined SST forcing can, at least in certain years, be an important driving force of Sahel rainfall variability. Composite analyses show that the Sahel drought is usually accompanied by easterly winds, and moisture transport from the continent into the Atlantic Ocean.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (laiandulicsay(at)yahoo.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Drought ; Extreme weather event ; Sahel ; West Africa ; Region I - Africa ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division ; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
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Projection of Future Streamflow Changes in the Pearl River Basin
Global climate change is remarkably changing the climatic patterns of the Pearl River basin and are significantly impacting the hydrological processes. Projection of future climate change impacts on steamflow variation is potential to provide scientific guidelines for sustainable water resources management and effective prevention and control for flood and drought disasters. In this study, a hydrological modeling system for assessing climate change impacts on runoffin the Pearl River basin was established and were used to simulate historical hydrological process and to project future streamflo ...Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
Global climate change is remarkably changing the climatic patterns of the Pearl River basin and are significantly impacting the hydrological processes. Projection of future climate change impacts on steamflow variation is potential to provide scientific guidelines for sustainable water resources management and effective prevention and control for flood and drought disasters. In this study, a hydrological modeling system for assessing climate change impacts on runoffin the Pearl River basin was established and were used to simulate historical hydrological process and to project future streamflow variations under certain emission scenarios. Subsequently, the impacts of different delta-change methods on the projected changes in future streamflow were quantified. Furthermore, a bootstrapping resample approach was developed to test the significance of changes of streamflow variability and extremes in response to future climate change.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact the author (yinyinsan86(at)gmail.com) or library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Climate change ; Flood forecasting ; Research ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division ; China
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Spatial-temporal analysis and variability of meteorological drought during pre and south west monsoon period in Myanmar
The current study is an attempt to assess meteorological drought in Myanmar during the South west pre monsoon and monsoon period using observed rainfall data from 34 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1971 to 2010. The components of drought that were analyzed in this study were severity, persistence, frequency and probability of occurrence. Additional, trends in drought occurrence were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method while the wavelet analysis was applied to PI value to identify various periodic processes.Spatial-temporal analysis and variability of meteorological drought during pre and south west monsoon period in Myanmar
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Published by: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology ; 2016
The current study is an attempt to assess meteorological drought in Myanmar during the South west pre monsoon and monsoon period using observed rainfall data from 34 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1971 to 2010. The components of drought that were analyzed in this study were severity, persistence, frequency and probability of occurrence. Additional, trends in drought occurrence were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method while the wavelet analysis was applied to PI value to identify various periodic processes.
Notes: If you wish to download the full text, please contact library(at)wmo.int (Please replace (at) by @).
Language(s): English
Format: Digital (Available online for logged-in users)Tags: Drought ; Monsoon ; Myanmar ; Thesis - WMO Fellowship Division
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Published by: WMO ; 2016
Language(s): English; Other Languages: French, Spanish, Russian
Format: Digital (Free)Tags: Flash flood
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Published by: WMO ; 2016
Collection(s) and Series: WMO- No. 1178; TCP- No. 12
Language(s): English; Other Languages: French
Format: Digital (Free), Hard copyISBN (or other code): 978-92-63-11178-4
Archives access: 1988-[...]Tags: Tropical cyclone ; Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) ; Region I - Africa ; WMO-TD 577, WMO-TD 618
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Система оценки риска возникновения быстроразвивающихся паводков (СОРВБП) с глобальным охватом
Всемирная Метеорологическая Организация (BMO); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); et al. - BMO, 2016Система оценки риска возникновения быстроразвивающихся паводков (СОРВБП) с глобальным охватом (резолюция 21, Кг-XV) расширяет возможности НМГС для заблаговременного предупреждения, охватывает сейчас 52 страны и более двух миллиардов человек во всем мире, спасая жизни и снижая экономические потери.Permalink![]()
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Sistema guía para crecidas repentinas (FFGS) con cobertura mundial
Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); et al. - OMM, 2016El Sistema Guía para Crecidas Repentinas con cobertura mundial (Resolución 21, Cg-XV) dota a los Servicios Meteorológicos e Hidrológicos Nacionales de mejores capacidades de alerta temprana y abarca en la actualidad a 52 países y a más de 2 000 millones de personas en todo el mundo, salvando vidas y reduciendo pérdidas económicas.Permalink![]()
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Système d’indications relatives aux crues éclair (FFGS) - A couverture mondiale
Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); et al. - OMM, 2016Le Système d’indications relatives aux crues éclair à couverture mondiale (Résolution 21, Cg-XV) vise à renforcer l’aptitude des SMHN à émettre des alertes précoces. Il couvre actuellement cinquante-deux (52) pays et plus de deux milliards de personnes dans le monde, et permet de sauver des vies et de réduire les pertes économiques.Permalink![]()
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Информационно-диагностическая система для Оценки Риска Возникновения Быстроразвивающихся Паводков (Ффгс) с глобальным охватом
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دلیل المؤشرات والأرقام القیاسیة للجفاف
المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد ; Global Water Partnership (GWP) - المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد, 2016 (مجموعة مطبوعات المنظمة-No. 1173)الغرض من ھذا الدلیل ھو تغطیة بعض أكثر المؤشرات/ الأرقام القیاسیة للجفاف شیوعاً التي یجري تطبیقها في جمیع المناطق المعرضة للجفاف، بهدف تعزیز نُظم المراقبة والإنذار المبكر وتقدیم المعلومات الداعمة لسیاسات إدارة الجفاف وخطط التأھب لھ القائمة على المخاطر. وھذه المفاھیم والمؤشرات/ الأرقام القیاسیة مبینة أدناه فیما یُعتبر وثیقة تداولیة سوف تتطور وتضم مؤشرات وأرقاماً قیاسیة جدیدة مع ظهورھا وتطبیقها في المستقبل. والدلیل موجھ إلى أولئك الذین یریدون إعداد مؤشرات وأرقاماً قیاسیة بأنفسهم، وكذلك إلى أولئك الذین یریدون فحسب الحصول على نواتج أُعدت في مكان آخر واستخدامها. والمقصود ھو استخدامھ من جانب الممارسی ...PermalinkPermalink![]()
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الطقس والجراد الصحراوي
المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد ; منظمة الأغذية والزراعة للأمم المتحدة - المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد, 2016 (مجموعة مطبوعات المنظمة-No. 1175)PermalinkPermalink![]()
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Manuel des indicateurs et indices de sécheresse
Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM); Global Water Partnership (GWP) - OMM, 2016 (OMM-No. 1173)Le manuel présente les indicateurs et les indices les plus couramment employés dans les régions sujettes à la sécheresse dans le but de faire progresser le suivi, l’alerte précoce et la diffusion de l’information à l’appui des politiques de gestion des situations de sécheresse et des plans de préparation axés sur les risques. Les méthodes et les notions qui les accompagnent y sont brièvement exposées. Ce document est appelé à évoluer et à s’enrichir à mesure que de nouveaux indicateurs et indices seront élaborés et mis en pratique. Il intéressera les personnes qui souhaitent définir leurs prop ...Permalink![]()
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Справочник по показателям и индексам засушливости
Всемирная Метеорологическая Организация (BMO); Global Water Partnership (GWP) - BMO, 2016 (BMO-No. 1173)Цель настоящего справочника заключается в том, чтобы описать самые распространенные показатели/индикаторы засушливости, которые применяются в подверженных засухам регионах, с целью совершенствования систем мониторинга, заблаговременного предупреждения и представления информации в поддержку политических мер в области борьбы с засухами с учетом рисков и в поддержку планов обеспечения готовности. Эти концепции и показатели/индексы кратко изложены в нижеследующем тексте, призванном быть интерактивным документом, который в дальнейшем будет развиваться и включать новые показатели и индексы по мере и ...Permalink![]()
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干旱指标与指数手册
本手册旨在涵盖适用于干旱易发区域最常用的干旱指标/指数,目的是促进监 测、早期预警和信息提供系统,以支持基于风险的干旱管理政策和备灾计划。 这些概念和指标/指数将在下文进行介绍,它是一份动态文件,随着新指标和指 数出现及在未来的适用性加以更新及整合。本手册面向那些希望制作其自身指 标和指数的机构以及针对那些只愿意获取和使用为其它地区所制作的产品的机 构。本手册适用于一般干旱从业人员使用(例如,气象/水文部门、资源管理者 及其它各级决策者),并旨在作为一个起点,表明哪个指标/指数可用,并在全 球投入实际使用。此外,本手册的制定考虑到了干旱风险管理过程。然而,本 出版物并非旨在推荐一套“最佳”指标和指数。对指标/指数的选择是根据与利益 攸关方关注的影响最密切关联的干旱具体特点。Permalink![]()
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Manual de indicadores e índices de sequía
La finalidad del presente manual es tratar algunos de los indicadores e índices de sequía de uso más habitual en las regiones más propensas a las sequías, con el objeto de impulsar sistemas de vigilancia, de alerta temprana y de suministro de información que respalden los planes de preparación y las políticas de gestión de la sequía basados en riesgos. Estos conceptos e indicadores o índices se describen a grandes rasgos a continuación, en lo que se considera un documento dinámico que evolucionará e incorporará nuevos indicadores e índices a medida que estos salgan a la luz y se apliquen en el ...Permalink![]()
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المناخ العالمي في 2015–2011
في توحید أفضل المعلومات المناخیة المتاحة من المرافق الوطنیة للأرصاد الجوية والهیدرولوجیا في بیانات سنوية عن حالة المناخ العالمي. وفي عام 2013 ، أصدرت المنظمة ( WMO ) ملخصاً عقدياً عن المناخ غطى الفترة 2001 - 2010 . ومنذ عام 2006 ، أنتجت المنظمة WMO) ) أيضاً نشرات سنوية عن غازات الاحتباس الحراري تقدّم إفادة عن تركیزات غازات الاحتباس الحراري في الغلاف الجوي التي تدفع إلى تغیر المناخ. ولقد كانت التأثیرات المبكرة لتغیر المناخ واضحة باستمرار على النطاق العالمي منذ ثمانینیات القرن الماضي، وهي: زيادة درجة حرارة العالم على الیابسة وفي سطح وأعماق المحیطات، وارتفاع مستوى سطح البحر، وانصهار طبقات الجلید ...Permalink![]()
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Estado del clima mundial en 2011–2015
El presente informe describe la evolución del sistema climático durante el período comprendido entre 2011 y 2015. La Organización Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) ha evaluado este período de cinco años con el fin de contribuir a comprender mejor las tendencias plurianuales al calentamiento y los fenómenos extremos que pueden ayudar a los gobiernos a aplicar con mayor eficacia la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático. Esto se aplica en particular al Acuerdo de París de 2015, que proporciona a la comunidad mundial una oportunidad histórica para actuar con más urgencia en l ...Permalink![]()
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Le climat mondial 2011–2015
Le présent rapport décrit l’évolution du système climatique entre 2011 et 2015. L’Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM) a analysé ces cinq années afin de mieux comprendre le réchauffement constaté sur cette période, ainsi que les phénomènes extrêmes et, par là même, aider les gouvernements à mettre en oeuvre de manière plus efficace la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques (CCNUCC), et en particulier l’Accord de Paris. Adopté en 2015, ce dernier représente, pour la communauté internationale, une occasion sans précédent d’accélérer les efforts visant à limiter ...Permalink![]()
Airborne Dust: A Hazard to Human Health, Environment and Society
Over the last decade, the scientific community has come to realize the important impacts of airborne dust on climate, human health, the environment and various socio-economic sectors. WMO and its Members, having started implementation of monitoring, forecasting and early warning systems for airborne dust in 2004, are at the vanguard on evaluating these impacts and developing products to guide preparedness, adaptation and mitigation policies. 1 2Permalink