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Vol. 65(2) - 2016 - Catastrophes (peu) naturelles: Expliquer les liens entre les événements extrêmes et le changement climatique
is an issue of Bulletin. OMM, 2017
Том 65(2) - 2016 г. - (Не)стихийные бедствия: сообщение информации о связи между экстремальными явлениями и изменением климата
Содержание
- (Не)стихийные бедствия: сообщение информации о связи между экстремальными явлениями и изменением климата Сюзан Джой Хессол, Симон Торок, Софии Льюис и Патрик Луганда 。2
- Создание комплексной структуры метеорологического обслуживания для наземного транспорта Целевая экспертная группа ВМО и Секретариат ВМО 。10
- Метеорологическая отрасль: глобальное государственно-частное партнерство Алан Торп。 16
- Результаты КС-21 и МГЭИК Джонатан Линн и Уэрани Забула。 22
- 20 лет влияния – работа в партнерстве по проблемам водных ресурсов Стивен Доуни и Фреде ...
Vol. 65(2) - 2016 - Desastres (no) naturales: cómo comunicar los vínculos entre los fenómenos extremos y el cambio climático
is an issue of Boletín. OMM, 2017Índice:
- Desastres (no) naturales: cómo comunicar los vínculos entre los fenómenos extremos y el cambio climático
por Susan Joy Hassol, Simon Torok, Sophie Lewis y Patrick Luganda, p. 2
- Integración de la prestación de servicios meteorológicos para el transporte terrestre por el Grupo de expertos de la OMM y la Secretaría de la OMM, p. 10
- La empresa del tiempo: una asociación mundial entre los sectores público y privado
por Alan Thorpe, p. 16
- Resultados de la CP21 y el IPCC por Jonathan Lynn y Werani Zabula, p. 22
< ...
Vol. 65(1) - 2016 - Más cálido, más seco, más húmedo. Afrontemos el futuro
is an issue of Boletín. OMM, 2017Índice:
- Más cálido, más seco, más húmedo. Afrontemos el futuro. Día Meteorológico Mundial de 2016
por la Secretaría de la OMM, p.2
- Apoyo de la OMM a la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible
por la Secretaría de la OMM, p.4
- Mi visión. Entrevista con el nuevo Secretario General de la OMM
por la Secretaría de la OMM, p.12
- Desplazamientos relacionados con los desastres en el contexto de un clima cambiante
por Michelle Yonetani, p. 16 Aspectos destacados de la primera Declaración quinquenal sobre el estad ...
COSMIC: Atmospheric Remote Sensing for Weather, Climate, and the Ionosphere
This video provides an introduction to the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), including information about the COSMIC-2 mission. COSMIC uses a technique called radio occultation to profile temperature, water vapor, and ionospheric information within Earth's atmosphere. The high-quality, high-resolution data contribute to improvements in numerical weather prediction, hurricane forecasts, climate studies, and ionospheric analyses. This full video resource covering COSMIC data and science is hosted on COMET's YouTube Channel. A short video highlightin ...
Local Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting and Communication
This lesson introduces learners to the challenges in predicting and communicating localized tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall threats. The lesson discusses the key ingredients conducive for heavy TC rainfall, and the tools used by the National Weather Service to forecast it. Learners work through a TC case to practice interpreting precipitation guidance correctly and communicating the threat and impacts. The lesson also highlights the issuance of flash flood emergencies and areal flood warnings during TC events, and how to best communicate TC rainfall impacts for a local area. The lesson will tak ...
Dam Failure Concepts and Modeling
This lesson provides an in-depth case study to illustrate principles of dam failure modeling and examines some of the critical data inputs and outputs. Output is provided from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS model for simulated failures of a large dam. Several simulations are presented that show the impact from varying the size of the breach and the time it takes the breach to fully develop. The lesson also summarizes several infamous large dam failures from around the world and the impacts from other factors are such as reservoir shape and size, the age of the dam, and the material u ...
Met 101: Basic Weather Processes
This lesson provides an overview of basic weather processes, beginning with how the distribution of incoming solar energy helps to establish Earth’s atmospheric circulations. Learners will gain an understanding of the differences between weather and climate, and how Earth’s winds tend to have dominant patterns determined by region. An introduction to atmospheric stability, clouds, precipitation processes, and thunderstorm characteristics is also included, along with an introduction to weather impacts affecting aviation operations.
Using the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) for Water Resilience Decisions
This lesson offers users of climate information a demonstration of the utility of the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) for water resources applications. The training follows a NOAA Climate Resilience Toolkit case study in Tampa, Florida, and illustrates how LCAT analyses can be used to inform the steps to climate resilience outlined in the Toolkit. This text-based, interactive lesson will be accessible to anyone using LCAT for water resources decision-making, though will be most useful to those with some familiarity with drought/water resources questions and information needs. Some backgroun ...
WPC Rainfall Guidance for Tropical Cyclones
This lesson introduces learners to the challenges in predicting precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). It also provides an overview of the deterministic and probabilistic rainfall guidance products issued by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to forecast TC-related precipitation. Learners work through a TC case to practice interpreting the guidance correctly and communicating the precipitation threat. The lesson also highlights the different interpretations of probabilistic products from the WPC and National Hurricane Center, and the need for collaboration between national cen ...
GOES-16 Case Exercise: 8 May 2017 Colorado Hail Event
GOES-16, the first satellite in the GOES-R series, launched in November 2016 and now provides 16 multispectral bands of satellite data, including CONUS scans every five minutes, with 0.5 kilometer visible imagery resolution and 2.0 km longwave infrared resolution. This lesson harnesses GOES-16’s increased temporal and spatial resolutions to identify convective development and intensity signatures on traditional longwave IR and visible band imagery, and compares the experience to using legacy GOES products. The lesson is geared toward early-career forecasters, those forecasters wanting more exp ...
Using the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)
The lesson is intended to help NOAA's National Weather Service facilitate forecasters' use of ensemble forecast information in hydrology. The lesson provides information about the benefits and limitations of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS), explains the sources of uncertainty (meteorological inputs and hydrologic modeling), and demonstrates how to interpret a HEFS product for hydrologic analysis and forecasting.
Advancing Culture of Living with Landslides
This volume contains peer-reviewed papers from the Fourth World Landslide Forum organized by the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL), the Global Promotion Committee of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL), University of Ljubljana (UL) and Geological Survey of Slovenia in Ljubljana, Slovenia from May 29 to June 2, 2017. The complete collection of papers from the Forum is published in five full-color volumes. Thisfirst volume contains the following:
• Three forum lectures
• Background and Content of the Sendai Partnerships 2015–2025
• Contribution from th ...
Diagnosis of floods/drought and their associated circulation anomaly over Malawi
Floods and droughts are one of extreme weather climatic events that result in loss of life and property in Malawi. However, a well detailed knowledge of understanding of previous extreme climatic events and their associated impacts can be a precautionary in reducing their impacts, as it will help to project future events timely. Therefore this paper presents an analysis of Dec-Feb seasonal flood/drought events and their associated circulation anomalies over Malawi. The DJF seasonal flood/drought was studied using monthly data from 9 selected stations for the period of 1978-2010. A set of regio ...
A Disaster Risk Reduction Roadmap for the World Meteorological Organization : final draft (version 2.1), 31 March 2017
The Roadmap is first and foremost a document that can be used by both WMO Members, partners and users to understand how NMHSs in partnership with other agencies contribute to increasing the resilience of communities, nations, regions, and the world under the above-mentioned frameworks, through a coordinated WMO-wide plan of action on DRR. It is hoped that this Roadmap will guide the Organization, in particular the NMHSs as well as key partners, in the development of its strategic and operating plans that fully take into account the contributions of the WMO community to all components and phase ...
Integrated Drought Management Programme Working Paper, 01. Benefits of action and costs of inaction: Drought mitigation and preparedness – a literature review
This review of available literature on the benefits of action and costs of inaction of drought mitigation and preparedness shows that significant progress has been made over the past decade in improving understanding of droughts and their impacts. However, significant gaps in research, policy and practice remain. This paper reviews several methodologies for making economic drought impact assessments and describes the main obstacles and opportunities facing the transition from crisis management to risk management. It identifies drivers of ex ante and ex post action against drought and highlight ...
Les systèmes convectifs pendant la mousson en région tropicale : Mémoire de fin d’étude pour l’obtention du diplôme de technicien supérieur de la météorologie
Dans ce travail nous avons voulu étudier sur la zone tropicale les liens entre les systèmes convectifs et la pluie. L’algorithme TOOCAN introduit a pour but d’améliorer la caractérisation de l’évolution du bouclier nuageux associe aux systèmes convectifs au cours de leur cycle de vie. Des composites des structures précipitantes au cours du cycle de vie du système nuageux organise sont alors construits en fusionnant les données des satellites géostationnaires avec des estimations de précipitations issues des mesures micro-ondes à bord des satellites défilant. L’objectif de ce travail est non se ...
Vol. 65(2) - 2016 - Un/Natural Disasters: Communicating Linkages Between Extreme Events and Climate Change
is an issue of Bulletin. WMO, 2016
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Атмосферная пыль: опасность для здоровья человека, окружающей среды и общества
В последнее десятилетие научное сообщество осоз- нало важное влияние атмосферной пыли на климат, здоровье человека, окружающую среду и различ- ные социально-экономические секторы. ВМО и ее Члены, приступив в 2004 г. к использованию систем мониторинга, прогнозирования и заблаговременного предупреждения об атмосферной пыли, находятся на передовом рубеже деятельности, связанной с оценкой этого влияния и разработкой продукции, содейству- ющей выработке политики в области обеспечения готовности, адаптации и смягчения последствий. 1 2
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Выпуск в Китае заблаговременных предупреждений с учетом возможных последствий и оценки рисков
Китай является одной из стран, наиболее подверженных воздействию опасных явлений. В период с 1984 по 2014 г. метеорологические опасные явления в среднем ежегодно уносили 4 066 жизней и наносили прямой экономический ущерб в размере 192,2 млрд китайских юаней (30,5 млрд долларов США), что составляет 2 % внутреннего вало- вого продукта Китая. Показатель среднегодовых убытков (отношение прямых экономических убытков к годовому ВВП) снизился наполовину – с 2,08 % в период с 1984 по 2000 г. до 1,03 % в период с 2001 по 2014 г. – благодаря повышению эффективности мер по предотвращению и смягчению посл ...
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На пути к существенному уменьшению опасности бедствий в 2030 г.
Бюллетень, Том 64(2). BMO, 2016Сендайская рамочная программа действий по умень- шению опасности бедствий на 2015–2030 гг. (Сен- дайская рамочная программа), принятая 18 марта, является первым крупным соглашением в повестке дня на 2015 год. Ее семь глобальных целей и четыре прио- ритетных направления действий чрезвычайно актуальны для ВМО. Уменьшение опасности бедствий является одной из семи приоритетных областей деятельности Организации. Защита жизни, источников существования и собственности занимает центральное место в рамках ее миссии, и поэтому ВМО будет поддерживать Сендай- скую рамочную программу посредством осуществле ...
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Climate risk early warning systems in Europe
WMO is establishing networks of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) to support Members, through their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, in better meeting their climate-related goals. Droughts, heatwaves, cold waves, floods, extreme storms, land¬slides, bush and forest fires and coastal erosion, to name just a few, are often triggered by large-scale climate drivers such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Thus, efficient and effective early warning systems for such climate extremes require cross-border collabora¬tion. The setting up of RCC networks for early warning systems to ant ...
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Disaster-related displacement in a changing climate
Climate-related displacement is already a global reality. Every year, the lives of millions of people are affected when they are displaced by the impacts of weather and climate hazards. Some of the largest disasters make the international headlines, but most disasters do not even make the national news. Yet, for poor and vulnerable families struggling to survive, even a small weather-related event can make an enormous impact on their lives. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has estimated that between 2008 and 2014, an annual average of at least 22.5 million people were displac ...
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La Chine se dote de systèmes d’alerte précoce axés sur les impacts et sur les risques
La Chine est l’un des pays les plus durement touches par les conditions meteorologiques. Entre 1984 et 2014, ces phenomenes ont provoque en moyenne, chaque annee, la mort de 4 066 personnes et des pertes economiques directes de 192,2 milliards de yuan (30,5 milliards de dollars E. U.) – 2 % du produit interieur brut (PIB). Le coefficient de perte annuel moyen (pertes economiques directes/ PIB annuel) est passe de 2,08 % au cours de la periode 1984–2000 a 1,03 % entre 2001 et 2014, grace a l’amelioration des mesures de prevention et d’attenuation des catastrophes. Meme reduit de moitie, ce coef ...
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Vers une réduction substantielle des risques de catastrophes d’ici à 2030
Bulletin, Vol. 64(2). OMM, 2016Le Cadre de Sendai pour la reduction des risques de catastrophe (2015–2030) a ete adopte le 18 mars dernier; il s’agit du premier accord d’envergure signe au titre du programme d’action de 2015. Ses sept objectifs mondiaux et quatre priorites interessent particulierement l’OMM, qui a fait de la reduction des risques de catastrophe l’un de ses sept domaines d’action prioritaire. La protection des personnes, des moyens de subsistance et des biens est au coeur de la mission de l’Organisation – qui soutiendra donc le Cadre de Sendai par un large eventail d’activites scientifiques et techniques.
Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change
Climate is changing at unprecedented rates in recorded history. A variety of lines of evidence demonstrate that climate change is likely to affect the hydrologic cycle and thus create new challenges in water management. This requires that climate change information be included in water and water-related resources planning, operations, and management. Climate and Water Resources Management, Part 1: Climate Variability and Change describes the terminology, global evidence, regional manifestations, and basic science of global climate variability and anthropogenic change, with a focus on water res ...
Climate Variability and Change for Water Resources Management - International Edition
Climate is changing at unprecedented rates in recorded history. A variety of lines of evidence demonstrate that climate change is likely to affect the hydrologic cycle and thus create new challenges in water management. This requires that climate change information be included in water and water-related resources planning, operations, and management. Climate Variability and Change for Water Resources Management - International Edition describes the terminology, global evidence, regional manifestations, and basic science of global climate variability and anthropogenic change, with a focus on wa ...
SatFC-G: Tropical to Extratropical Transition
This lesson uses water vapor satellite imagery from Himawari-8 to describe the typical extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone. The Himawari-8 imager previews comparable capabilities coming online with the GOES-R ABI imager. The lesson also provides a brief overview of subtropical cyclones and their transition to tropical cyclones. This lesson is a part of the NWS Satellite Foundation GOES-R Course.
TsunamiReady: Guidelines for Mitigation, Preparedness, and Response
The TsunamiReady® program began in 2001 to promote tsunami hazard preparedness and improve public safety before, during, and after tsunami emergencies. In 2015, the National Weather Service updated the TsunamiReady Guidelines based directly on emergency management principles and with input from the social sciences. This training provides an overview of the 2015 guidelines, which are focused on mitigation, preparedness, and response. The training will equip community officials and others interested in becoming TsunamiReady with strategies for streamlining their implementation of the guidelines. ...
NWS JetStream: Online School for Weather
JetStream - An Online School for Weather is a free teaching resource covering a wide variety of weather topics and weather safety. It provides educators, emergency managers, or anyone interested in learning about weather with comprehensive, well-organized, colorfully illustrated curricula. Each section or “module” includes “learning lessons", classroom experiments that use common household items demonstrating various aspects of weather. JetStream is developed and maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service and is not produced, owned or ho ...
Sea Level Change: Basics
This lesson describes the physical processes, both natural and human-induced, that lead to changes in sea level. The processes described include climate induced changes in ocean heat content and volume, natural oceanic cycles, and both natural and human-induced changes in coastal land elevation. The learning is enhanced with rich graphics and periodic questions.
Best Practices in Tropical Cyclone Briefings
Crafting clear, concise and effective messages focused on customer needs is a crucial skill in every decision-support situation. Tropical cyclones that threaten a coastline have the potential to inflict devastating damage to communities and communicating relevant weather information will assist decision-makers in their plans and preparation work. This lesson examines how to effectively prepare for the hurricane season and then focuses on how best to support NWS partners through meteorological briefings during tropical cyclone events. Basic familiarity with probabilistic forecast guidance is re ...
Météo et criquets pèlerins
Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM); Organisation des Nations Unies pour l'Alimentation et l'Agriculture (FAO) - OMM, 2016 (OMM-No. 1175)La présente publication est avant tout un guide de référence général destiné au personnel des centres nationaux de lutte antiacridienne et des SMHN des pays victimes du criquet. Toutefois, elle sera également utile au plus grand nombre car elle permet d’en savoir davantage sur le criquet pèlerin et les phénomènes météorologiques ayant une incidence à son égard. On y trouvera des informations de base sur la biologie et le comportement du criquet pèlerin, ainsi qu’un historique des invasions, une analyse des facteurs météorologiques qui influent sur le développement de ce ravageur et des conseil ...
GAW Report, 230. Airborne dust : from R&D to operational forecast : 2013-2015 Activity Report of the SDS- WAS Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe
The 18th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques (GGMT - 2015) took place from 13 to 17 September 2015 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla (CA), USA. It was the 40 th anniversary of the first GGMT meeting (then called "CO 2 Experts Meeting") which was also held at Scripps in 1974. WMO has provided the framework for all carbon dioxide experts meetings since 1975. IAEA in Vienna joined WMO as a co - organizer in 1997 due to the increased use of carbon isotopes in studying the carbon cycle. The meeting reviewed current WMO ...
Variability of the West African summer Monsoon and its relation to the SSTA over the Atlantic Ocean
This study investigates spatial and temporal features of the West African Summer Monsoon (WASM) and its relation to the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA). The variability of the WASM from June to September was analyzed during the period 1960-2013, with methods including EOF analysis of the precipitation anomaly and SSTA and the associated large scale circulation pattern. The result from the first EOF-Mode of the precipitation anomaly which has the highest positive loadings over the region shows that during the summer, the precipitation anomalies are positives in the Sahel and the Sahara. ...
Weather and Desert Locusts
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) - WMO, 2016 (WMO-No. 1175)
The Global Climate in 2011–2015
This report describes the evolution of the climate system during the period 2011–2015. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has assessed this five-year period in order to contribute to a better understanding of multiyear warming trends and extreme events that can help governments to implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change more effectively.
Global Assessment of Sand and Dust Storms
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) - UNEP, 2016The specific objectives of the assessment are to:
1. Synthesise and highlight the environmental and socio-economic causes and impacts of SDS, as well as available technical measures for their mitigation, at the local, regional and global levels.
2. Show how the mitigation of SDS can yield multiple sustainable development benefits.
3. Synthesize information on current policy responses for mitigating SDS.
4. Present options for an improved strategy for mitigating SDS at the local, regional and global levels, building on existing institutions and agreements.
...
TCP. WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones - Forty-third session : final report
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) - WMO, 2016
International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones II (IWSATC-II), Report and Recommendations : final report
In this report, we summarize the reported changes in TC satellite analysis techniques since IWSATC-I (2011) and highlight the continued development of existing objective analysis methods as well as the emergence of new algorithms.
Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) with global coverage
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); et al. - WMO, 2016Flash Flood Guidance System with global coverage (Res 21, Cg-XV) enhances early warning capabilities of the NMHSs, currently covers fifty two (52) countries and more than two billion people around the world saving lives and decreasing economic losses.
Drought Assessment Using SPEI and NDVI : Case of Lesotho
While drought conditions are generally a common and recurring phenomenon of the climate in Southern Africa especially Lesotho, the frequency of droughts in Lesotho has increased significantly over the past few years. Lesotho has suffered the devastating impacts of drought during the past several decades resulting in poor harvests and large livestock losses to rural farmers. The majority of the population in Lesotho engages with rain- fed agriculture and is dependent to some degree on own production for household food supply and/or cash income (Dejene, Midgley, & Marake, 2011). Any negative cha ...
Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices
The purpose of this handbook is to cover some of the most commonly used drought indicators/indices that are being applied across drought-prone regions, with the goal of advancing monitoring, early warning and information delivery systems in support of risk-based drought management policies and preparedness plans. These concepts and indicators/indices are outlined below in what is considered to be a living document that will evolve and integrate new indicators and indices as they come to light and are applied in the future. The handbook is aimed at those who want to generate indicators and indi ...
Diagnosis Of Extreme Rainfall And Temperature Event Over Rwanda (1961-2010)
This study attempted to investigate the variability of extreme rainfall and temperature over Rwanda and the associated circulation anomalies forecasting on wet and dry rainfall events between 1961 and 2010. The datasets used to achieve the objectives includes Temperature, the rainfall dataset, wind vector, pressure vertical velocity (omega) and the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). The methods used include correlation analysis, Standardized anomaly, composite analysis, and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis. The results show that the mean annual cycle depict two rainy Seas ...
The Sahel Drought Mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events
The Sahel drought mechanism: insights from two contrasting extreme events during boreal summer July-August-September (JAS) is investigated in this study using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and composite analyses were deployed in this study, where the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) rainfall data is used. The SPI shows large widespread decreasing rainfall trend in the Sahel in the mid-1980s; thereafter, Sahel rainfall have recovered somewhat through the late 1990s, even though the drought conditions have not ended in the region. A ...
Projection of Future Streamflow Changes in the Pearl River Basin
Global climate change is remarkably changing the climatic patterns of the Pearl River basin and are significantly impacting the hydrological processes. Projection of future climate change impacts on steamflow variation is potential to provide scientific guidelines for sustainable water resources management and effective prevention and control for flood and drought disasters. In this study, a hydrological modeling system for assessing climate change impacts on runoffin the Pearl River basin was established and were used to simulate historical hydrological process and to project future streamflo ...
Spatial-temporal analysis and variability of meteorological drought during pre and south west monsoon period in Myanmar
The current study is an attempt to assess meteorological drought in Myanmar during the South west pre monsoon and monsoon period using observed rainfall data from 34 stations in Myanmar spanning from 1971 to 2010. The components of drought that were analyzed in this study were severity, persistence, frequency and probability of occurrence. Additional, trends in drought occurrence were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method while the wavelet analysis was applied to PI value to identify various periodic processes.
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